St. Louis Blues making a comeback?

[LetsGoBLUES91]

But the Blackhawks!

 

[Mike Liut]

Nah, the offense is still lacking. Power play is still a big concern. Maybe we'd be able to win a few more 1-0, 2-1 hockey games in the playoffs with an elite goalie but it wouldn't be enough IMO.

I think that’s more to do with coaching than talent. Yeo set this team way back. They had zero confidence in anything they did under him.

 

[TheGoldenGod]

 

[Dbrownss]

I think that’s more to do with coaching than talent. Yeo set this team way back. They had zero confidence in anything they did under him.

Eh....no. IF Schwartz didnt forget how to play hockey and Petro continued last years wizardry, I'd say you could be onto something but those 2 have slumped hard AF. This team is more then a goalie away from being elite

 

[Uncle Scrooge]

It sort of feels like 16/17, when it looked like they could miss but then turned it up while everyone else outside looking in sucked (best team to miss the playoffs were the Jets with 87). Then they upset Minny in the 1st round.

If the Blues sneak in and finish strong i wouldn't want to play them in the 1st round as the big favorite.

Actually, im starting to have nightmares about a 1st round against them, looks like it's a possibility. I can already see everyone pumping up our tires to go to the finals before the playoffs and then fall on our faces against the Blues while Laine is -10 in the series.

 

[BlueDream]

It sort of feels like 16/17, when it looked like they could miss but then turned it up while everyone else outside looking in sucked (best team to miss the playoffs were the Jets with 87). Then they upset Minny in the 1st round.

If the Blues sneak in and finish strong i wouldn't want to play them in the 1st round as the big favorite.

Actually, im starting to have nightmares about a 1st round against them, looks like it's a possibility. I can already see everyone pumping up our tires to go to the finals before the playoffs and then fall on our faces against the Blues while Laine is -10 in the series.

Laine has scored like 3 million goals against us, including 5 in one game.

We want Calgary. No offense to them, but I think the Blues have a better chance at upsetting them.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

This would be a top 5 team in the league with an elite goalie.

The top-5 teams ranked by points percentage are the same 5 as the top-5 teams ranked by goals/game. The average among those teams is 193 goals and the lowest is 185 goals. The Blues, meanwhile, have scored 146 goals, and they rank 19th in goals per game.

I think they’re a playoff team, but let’s not get carried away here.

 

[qwerty]

Laine has scored like 3 million goals against us, including 5 in one game.

We want Calgary. No offense to them, but I think the Blues have a better chance at upsetting them.

I definitely think st louis gets in. They have a lot of games in hand and have quite possibly the easiest schedule going forward. Really hope they play the Jets though. I’d rather play Chicago even though they’re on a tear and hot on the tails of the 8th seed.

 

[Mike Liut]

The top-5 teams ranked by points percentage are the same 5 as the top-5 teams ranked by goals/game. The average among those teams is 193 goals and the lowest is 185 goals. The Blues, meanwhile, have scored 146 goals, and they rank 19th in goals per game.

I think they’re a playoff team, but let’s not get carried away here.

The Blues were 3rd in regular season points over a 6 year span under Hitch. They weren’t a high scoring team.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

The Blues were 3rd in regular season points over a 6 year span under Hitch. They weren’t a high scoring team.

Were they even top-5 in any single one of those seasons? As I recall, they were the model of consistency but never a top-5 team in any one of those seasons.

Plus, this is a different NHL right now. One where you pretty much have to be a top goal scoring team in order to be a top team. The Islanders are close to top-5 right now but I don’t think they can sustain that.

If the Blues got an elite goaltender, which 5 of the following teams would they surpass? San Jose, Toronto, NYI, Winnipeg, Calgary, Tampa Bay, Nashville, Boston, Washington

 

[Stopsight]

Were they even top-5 in any single one of those seasons? As I recall, they were the model of consistency but never a top-5 team in any one of those seasons.

Plus, this is a different NHL right now. One where you pretty much have to be a top goal scoring team in order to be a top team. The Islanders are close to top-5 right now but I don’t think they can sustain that.

If the Blues got an elite goaltender, which 5 of the following teams would they surpass? San Jose, Toronto, NYI, Winnipeg, Calgary, Tampa Bay, Nashville, Boston, Washington

3rd in 2015-16
4th in 2014-15
4th in 2013-14
6th in 2012-13
3rd in 2011-12

 

[EurlichBachman]

Were they even top-5 in any single one of those seasons? As I recall, they were the model of consistency but never a top-5 team in any one of those seasons.

Plus, this is a different NHL right now. One where you pretty much have to be a top goal scoring team in order to be a top team. The Islanders are close to top-5 right now but I don’t think they can sustain that.

If the Blues got an elite goaltender, which 5 of the following teams would they surpass? San Jose, Toronto, NYI, Winnipeg, Calgary, Tampa Bay, Nashville, Boston, Washington

They were top 5 in 4 of those years and 6th in another.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

3rd in 2015-16
4th in 2014-15
4th in 2013-14
6th in 2012-13
3rd in 2011-12

They were top 5 in 4 of those years and 6th in another.

I had to double check that. I don't remember them being that good, but you guys are certainly correct.

At any rate, I still don't see them as a top-10 team today, even with an elite goaltender. According to corsica.hockey, Jake Allen has allowed 11.66 more goals than an average goaltender would allow. But even if you replace him with John Gibson, who has saved his team 20.04 more goals than average, that only accounts for 31-32 goals.

For a team who is -6, to jump up to +25-26, would still not bring them up to top-5 in goal differential. And that's ignoring the fact that this calculation is extremely favorable to them and that replacing Allen with Gibson probably wouldn't actually save 31-32 more goals.

(Just for fun, doing the same thing with SJ and replacing Jones with Gibson would make us jump by +25 to +50 and we would be behind only Tampa. I don't think that's what would actually happen if you made that swap, though.)

 

[Mike Liut]

Were they even top-5 in any single one of those seasons? As I recall, they were the model of consistency but never a top-5 team in any one of those seasons.

Plus, this is a different NHL right now. One where you pretty much have to be a top goal scoring team in order to be a top team. The Islanders are close to top-5 right now but I don’t think they can sustain that.

If the Blues got an elite goaltender, which 5 of the following teams would they surpass? San Jose, Toronto, NYI, Winnipeg, Calgary, Tampa Bay, Nashville, Boston, Washington

I like the Blues roster better than NYI, Cal and SJ. I’ve seen the Blues dominate all 3 of those teams this year

 

[wetcoast]

The Blues really seem to be make a quiet climb up the standings. They're 3 points out now and have played less games.

Will they take a wild card spot? I wouldn't bet against it...

For the record, not a Blues fan in any shape or form...

Same here, been observing the Blues for a whe and always thought they would climb back into the race.

I think they make the playoffs and the Canucks don't.

 

[Aestivalis]

But the Blackhawks!

Blackhawks are open for trades, baby! What do you want? We got a Saad, Anisimov, or a Hayden on sale! Need a shutdown defenseman? Carl Dahlstrom or Gustav Forsling is the answer! We got you fam!

 

[LetsGoBLUES91]

Were they even top-5 in any single one of those seasons? As I recall, they were the model of consistency but never a top-5 team in any one of those seasons.

Plus, this is a different NHL right now. One where you pretty much have to be a top goal scoring team in order to be a top team. The Islanders are close to top-5 right now but I don’t think they can sustain that.

If the Blues got an elite goaltender, which 5 of the following teams would they surpass? San Jose, Toronto, NYI, Winnipeg, Calgary, Tampa Bay, Nashville, Boston, Washington

Ooof.

 

[BleedBlue14]

I had to double check that. I don't remember them being that good, but you guys are certainly correct.

At any rate, I still don't see them as a top-10 team today, even with an elite goaltender. According to corsica.hockey, Jake Allen has allowed 11.66 more goals than an average goaltender would allow. But even if you replace him with John Gibson, who has saved his team 20.04 more goals than average, that only accounts for 31-32 goals.

For a team who is -6, to jump up to +25-26, would still not bring them up to top-5 in goal differential. And that's ignoring the fact that this calculation is extremely favorable to them and that replacing Allen with Gibson probably wouldn't actually save 31-32 more goals.

(Just for fun, doing the same thing with SJ and replacing Jones with Gibson would make us jump by +25 to +50 and we would be behind only Tampa. I don't think that's what would actually happen if you made that swap, though.)

A lot of our goal differential is heavily influenced by 4 or 5 games in which we completely folded in a 7-1, 7-2 fashion.

Now that shouldn’t be overlooked but that 30 goal differential would be a pretty big factor record wise.

I still don’t think we stack up to well with Tampa, Toronto, a few other higher tier teams due to Schwartz and Pietro having down years. I know this is outlandish but if most of our top end players play at their career norms and we get that sort or at least a +10 goalie as opposed to a -11 i like where we are at in terms of being legit contenders.

Perron and ROR have done wonders for this team as well as Parayko playing fantastic and honestly even Bouwmeester post his first 15 games of the year.

Obviously the coaching change helped as we are now actually outshooting teams as opposed to being bombarded. The Blues are actually playing really good hockey as of late.

 

[BuLLeT1291]

At any rate, I still don't see them as a top-10 team today, even with an elite goaltender. According to corsica.hockey, Jake Allen has allowed 11.66 more goals than an average goaltender would allow. But even if you replace him with John Gibson, who has saved his team 20.04 more goals than average, that only accounts for 31-32 goals.

For a team who is -6, to jump up to +25-26, would still not bring them up to top-5 in goal differential. And that's ignoring the fact that this calculation is extremely favorable to them and that replacing Allen with Gibson probably wouldn't actually save 31-32 more goals.

Don’t worry about it boys, check all the other Blues threads. Rooster goes out of his way to downplay the Blues success every time. Something personal I guess. Just remember ROR isn’t a 1C.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

I like the Blues roster better than NYI, Cal and SJ. I’ve seen the Blues dominate all 3 of those teams this year

NYI, maybe STL would be in their spot or better with Trotz and Lehner.

SJ and CGY, I can’t agree with that at all. These teams have both gotten Jake Allen level goaltending for a large majority season and are still top-5 in the NHL. They also both have two players that are easily better than any player on St. Louis.

Don’t worry about it boys, check all the other Blues threads. Rooster goes out of his way to downplay the Blues success every time. Something personal I guess. Just remember ROR isn’t a 1C.

Everybody says this about me and their favorite teams. I guess I’m just a passionate hater of every team because I don’t think their team is as good as their fans do.

And the funny thing is, I still overrated them. I thought they would be a ~100 point team that failed in the playoffs due to a lack of elite talent. So far, they’re on pace for 85 points. But I guess I’m going out of my way to downplay their success - all 24 of their wins - because I’m a hater.

 

[ManyIdeas]

These teams have both gotten Jake Allen level goaltending

Trust me, only one team has gotten Jake Allen level goaltending this year.

 

[BuLLeT1291]

NYI, maybe STL would be in their spot or better with Trotz and Lehner.

SJ and CGY, I can’t agree with that at all. These teams have both gotten Jake Allen level goaltending for a large majority season and are still top-5 in the NHL. They also both have two players that are easily better than any player on St. Louis.

Everybody says this about me and their favorite teams. I guess I’m just a passionate hater of every team because I don’t think their team is as good as their fans do.

And the funny thing is, I still overrated them. I thought they would be a ~100 point team that failed in the playoffs due to a lack of elite talent. So far, they’re on pace for 85 points. But I guess I’m going out of my way to downplay their success - all 24 of their wins - because I’m a hater.

Jones and Rittich have outplayed Allen by a large margain. Allen is basically swiss cheese. Not even NHL caliber. That’s how bad.

Look buddy, I’m just calling it how I see it. Maybe to fix your problem you stick to SJ threads? Just a thought.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

they have definitely turned things around over the past month. They still have a lot of work to do to even be a playoff team, but they're getting there

 

[Tryblot]

NYI, maybe STL would be in their spot or better with Trotz and Lehner.

SJ and CGY, I can’t agree with that at all. These teams have both gotten Jake Allen level goaltending for a large majority season and are still top-5 in the NHL. They also both have two players that are easily better than any player on St. Louis.



Everybody says this about me and their favorite teams. I guess I’m just a passionate hater of every team because I don’t think their team is as good as their fans do.

And the funny thing is, I still overrated them. I thought they would be a ~100 point team that failed in the playoffs due to a lack of elite talent. So far, they’re on pace for 85 points. But I guess I’m going out of my way to downplay their success - all 24 of their wins - because I’m a hater.

Funny you say that and then turn around and call SJ a Stanley Cup contender.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Trust me, only one team has gotten Jake Allen level goaltending this year.

According to Hockey Reference, Martin Jones and Mike Smith have cost the Sharks and Flames both ~12 goals and Jake Allen has cost the Blues ~10. HR also says Aaron Dell has cost San Jose ~7 goals and Chad Johnson cost the Blues ~9 goals. Rittich and now Binnington are the guys giving their team solid goaltending.

Now, that just accounts for raw save percentage. That is where the goaltenders don’t differ much, but where they differ is the more advanced goaltending metrics that take shot quality into account. Those do say that Allen has been the most negatively impactful goaltender of the bunch but they also say that Jones/Smith have been terrible. That’s why I said “for a large majority of the season”. Calgary legitimately was getting it with Smith in net and San Jose is getting it with Dell in net but Jones and Rittich have also put up some strong games this season. Allen hasn’t.