St. Louis and San Jose Watch (1st round picks)
- Thread starter Snippit
- Start date
Jim Bob
RIP RJ
31 Thoughts: Goalies at odds with NHL, each other over new equipment - Sportsnet.ca
If the Blues were able to add Bobrovsky and make him happy with an extension, that would likely push them outside of the top 10 barring lottery luck, if not make them a playoff team.
If the Blues were able to add Bobrovsky and make him happy with an extension, that would likely push them outside of the top 10 barring lottery luck, if not make them a playoff team.
There's an argument to make from either side:
1) Would a mid-teens 2019 be in the lineup any earlier than a lottery player in 2020? I say no.
2) Would the upside of, say, a top-7 pick would be worth two picks in the 20's? Easily.
3) Team contract situation plays into it quite a bit. When will you need those ELC's in your lineup and in what roles?
4) And from the other direction, maybe San Jose and Saint Louis meet in the Stanley Cup finals in 2020 (after emergency realignment when the Leafs fold the franchise after missing the playoffs in 2019
)Taking the known quantity over the high potential is a never-ending argument. There's examples of either one working out. If Colorado gets Jack Hughes with the Ottawa pick you know how they'll feel about it. If they pick in the high 20's, who knows.
Just saying, there's superior upside to have unprotected picks one year later that you would not get with top-10 or lottery-protected picks a year earlier. You could never get a lottery hit with a protected pick. But everything would have to work out right, sure. Same as everything else.
Rasmus CacOlainen
The end of the Tank
What guarabtees you that the 2020 would be a lottery pick lol? STL have plenty of young assets that may turn then in a contender if they fix their goaltending in the offseason...There's an argument to make from either side:
1) Would a mid-teens 2019 be in the lineup any earlier than a lottery player in 2020? I say no.
2) Would the upside of, say, a top-7 pick would be worth two picks in the 20's? Easily.
3) Team contract situation plays into it quite a bit. When will you need those ELC's in your lineup and in what roles?
4) And from the other direction, maybe San Jose and Saint Louis meet in the Stanley Cup finals in 2020 (after emergency realignment when the Leafs fold the franchise after missing the playoffs in 2019
Taking the known quantity over the high potential is a never-ending argument. There's examples of either one working out. If Colorado gets Jack Hughes with the Ottawa pick you know how they'll feel about it. If they pick in the high 20's, who knows.
Just saying, there's superior upside to have unprotected picks one year later that you would not get with top-10 or lottery-protected picks a year earlier. You could never get a lottery hit with a protected pick. But everything would have to work out right, sure. Same as everything else.
Nothing. I'm just saying there is a 100% lead-pipe guarantee that the 2019's will never be a top-10. But, while the chance is small for 2020, it exists.
Therefore, there is upside to the picks being exercised in 2020 versus 2019. The cost of the pick protection is offset by the time-value of draft picks and the assumption by SJ/STL that they will not suck so much by 2020 that they might be giving up a top-10 or even lottery-winner pick.
MayDay
Registered User
Or we could just, you know, offer-sheet him.
If only that were a thing allowed to happen in the NHL.
Yatzhee
Registered User
- Aug 5, 2010
- 8,817
- 2,320
I liked your post, literally I hit the like button. Unfortunately we don't have the assets (picks) to offer sheet him successfully.
Djp
Registered User
There's an argument to make from either side:
1) Would a mid-teens 2019 be in the lineup any earlier than a lottery player in 2020? I say no.
2) Would the upside of, say, a top-7 pick would be worth two picks in the 20's? Easily.
3) Team contract situation plays into it quite a bit. When will you need those ELC's in your lineup and in what roles?
4) And from the other direction, maybe San Jose and Saint Louis meet in the Stanley Cup finals in 2020 (after emergency realignment when the Leafs fold the franchise after missing the playoffs in 2019
Taking the known quantity over the high potential is a never-ending argument. There's examples of either one working out. If Colorado gets Jack Hughes with the Ottawa pick you know how they'll feel about it. If they pick in the high 20's, who knows.
Just saying, there's superior upside to have unprotected picks one year later that you would not get with top-10 or lottery-protected picks a year earlier. You could never get a lottery hit with a protected pick. But everything would have to work out right, sure. Same as everything else.
A pick in the teens is a big difference. There tends to be a difference between 13 and 19.
I’d rather roll the dice and have one if the two picks roll over to 2020 for a couple of reasons...
1. 1 it spreads out the talent. Usually top 10 picks are in the nhl in draft year +1, mid teens by draft year +2 , a 20s pick you likely don’t see them till draft year + 4.
2. Roll the dice lottery win pick.
3. Let’s say this year buffalo picks 12-18 where maybe they make the playoffs. In 2020 they pick in the 20s. Buffali with an extra puck have a chip to use to acquire deadline talent or use it to protect their roster in an expansion draft.
4, if you draft all 3 in 19 then you could have a high cap hit in a few years when they don’t have the cap space. If they stagger their timeline wheee you have a key RFAs signing a year balances out cap management,
I know. We'd have to make an offer that would pay 4 firsts. We COULD, but it would be horrible value
Rasmus CacOlainen
The end of the Tank
Not if Allen and ROR's presence have anything to do with it. San Jose are a lock in their crappy division. STL likely miss out.
itwasaforwardpass
I'll be the hyena
- Mar 4, 2017
- 5,329
- 5,141
I'd rather have the Blues 2019 pick. They'd be a good team if they had competent goaltending. I'd expect them to be able to find anyone better than Allen and Johnson next offseason.
Djp
Registered User
Not in that division...only the top 3 are guaranteed and Nashville, Winnipeg, and Colorado appear to be top 3. In the west if there was separation such as San Jose, Anaheim, vegas, and another team or two cause separation in the division feeding off the other 3-4 division teams could have them just have more points which gives them the wild card spots. Central beats each other up so the 4th and 5th place clubs have less points than west 4th and 5th pkace teams.
Ace
Registered User
- Oct 29, 2015
- 23,528
- 28,426
I could see the Blues regressing next year after RoR fully breaks their spirits.
Jim Bob
RIP RJ
The Sabres can't really OS him because they don't own their 2019 2nd round pick and that is the OS range that makes the most sense.
And no way do they go to the 4 1sts level and give up their own picks for the next four years.
Jim Bob
RIP RJ
Snippit
Registered User
- Dec 5, 2012
- 16,628
- 9,958
I think Jake Allen is a big part of the problem. But if they can pull it together and just miss the playoffs (pick 11-15) that would be awesome
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