Blue Jays Discussion: Spring training begins today!

[Kurtz]

I read this and thought "Finally, a player doesn't have the Jays on his list!" But then I thought "Why did it have to be this player?"

Heyman reports the proposed deal would see the Blue Jays trade Michael Saunders to the Los Angeles Angels. It's unclear what the Reds would receive in exchange for Bruce, who reportedly removed the Blue Jays from his eight-team no trade list earlier this winter.

#winning

 

[ryno23]

As much as I think Jose is very arrogant in that interview I do love him calling out Rogers and basically saying your a billion dollar company pay me and screw your budget concerns and lets win something here

Now on the flip side if Jose is demanding too much money this is the perfect time to deal him and get a good return to keep the team competitive for the next few years.

As people know here I am on a huge Jose fan but that interview might have changed my perception of him a little haha.

Rogers the ball is in your court. One of Toronto most beloved players is calling you out.....what do you do.

 

[Mitchy]

Right now:

 

[Discoverer]

It's possible but is it the most negative thing that you could think of? Of course not. Analytics obviously said no to him

I don't think that's obvious at all. We don't know what kind of stats the Jays have, but even just looking at Fangraphs you can see:

1. The aforementioned huge strikeout drop of 5%.
2. A BABIP 36 points below his career norm.
3. A 9-run difference in UZR and DRS.

Use DRS instead of UZR and adjust to a normal BABIP and suddenly he's a 2 fWAR player last year.

Again, I don't see this being the case, I'm nowhere near that high on him, and I will hate this trade if there's nothing else involved, but it's not completely unreasonable to think the Jays may have data suggesting he'll be better this year, especially with his former hitting coach on staff.

 

[Pucker77]

Smoak is a switch hitter. And I wouldnt really consider Goins. Even if he gets regular duty the guy couldn't hit a beach ball.

Thats true, I forgot about Smoak. I also agree about Goins, but just the ability to bat lefty helps the Blue Jays because it is not as easy for right handed pitchers. So to have 3 or 4 lefty can help adjust the other teams game plan, especially late in games when the manager waits for a string of hitters before putting in a reliever.

Another question, with Saunders essentially gone does this mean that Tulo is going to be the opening day lead-off hitter? Only guys with any kind of speed is Goins and possibly Pillar.

 

[topched]

This has Dave Stewart all over it.

If this goes down as proposed I really hope there's. Reporter out there with the stones to ask Shapiro/Atkins what their new analytics guy had to say about this trade

 

[ryno23]

I'd be livid if we traded for Bruce. He has been complete and total **** the last 2 years. -0.8 fWAR combined. Saunders, even with his injuries, is a significant upgrade in the wRC+, OBP, and defensive departments.

Who cares about the last 2 years. He won't be in the same situation as last year. He will be facing different pitching, different parks among other things.

No one knows how all these changes will work. Bruce moving onto a playoff contender how will that get his competitive juices flowing and wanting to provide an impact on an already potent offence

Things with analytics people tend to forget the human element to a players psyche and how it can impact both ways.

Remember Jose was just some scrub until someone believed in him and gave him opportunity.

Bruce moving here could experience a revival to some of his good years.

 

[The Podium]

Thats true, I forgot about Smoak. I also agree about Goins, but just the ability to bat lefty helps the Blue Jays because it is not as easy for right handed pitchers. So to have 3 or 4 lefty can help adjust the other teams game plan, especially late in games when the manager waits for a string of hitters before putting in a reliever.

Another question, with Saunders essentially gone does this mean that Tulo is going to be the opening day lead-off hitter? Only guys with any kind of speed is Goins and possibly Pillar.

Goins would have to be last. The guy has an awful OBP. I'd lead off with Pillar, he has the speed and a comparable OBP as Revere. They can use him in the same role. Maybe Colabello? Travis when he returns?

 

[topched]

Who cares about the last 2 years. He won't be in the same situation as last year. He will be facing different pitching, different parks among other things.

No one knows how all these changes will work. Bruce moving onto a playoff contender how will that get his competitive juices flowing and wanting to provide an impact on an already potent offence

Things with analytics people tend to forget the human element to a players psyche and how it can impact both ways.

Remember Jose was just some scrub until someone believed in him and gave him opportunity.

Bruce moving here could experience a revival to some of his good years.

So to sum your post: "Trade for a worse player who costs more, but might be better cause hey he just wasn't tryin hard in Cincy anymore and ya just never know"

That's not the mindset of a sophisticated Major League front office. I've really liked what these guys have done value wise so far but my god if this goes down as proposed... Yikes

 

[le_sean]

Who cares about the last 2 years. He won't be in the same situation as last year. He will be facing different pitching, different parks among other things.

No one knows how all these changes will work. Bruce moving onto a playoff contender how will that get his competitive juices flowing and wanting to provide an impact on an already potent offence

Things with analytics people tend to forget the human element to a players psyche and how it can impact both ways.

Remember Jose was just some scrub until someone believed in him and gave him opportunity.

Bruce moving here could experience a revival to some of his good years.

So what you're saying is that they should give Bruce HGH like they did Jose

 

[Discoverer]

Things with analytics people tend to forget the human element to a players psyche and how it can impact both ways.

People don't focus on that stuff because it's impossible to factor in. Will he improve with the change of scenery or will he pout because he didn't want to go to Toronto? Any rationale you can come up with will have an opposite rationalization, so it's generally not worth getting into too much.

 

[TootooTrain]

Tulo, Pillar and Colabello are your most likely candidates. Speed isn't a prerequisite. Not in this lineup.

 

[Discoverer]

Goins would have to be last. The guy has an awful OBP. I'd lead off with Pillar, he has the speed and a comparable OBP as Revere. They can use him in the same role. Maybe Colabello? Travis when he returns?

You must have missed the part where Goins had a better OBP than Pillar last year.

 

[Eyedea]

This has Dave Stewart all over it.

If this goes down as proposed I really hope there's. Reporter out there with the stones to ask Shapiro/Atkins what their new analytics guy had to say about this trade

Dave Stewart would add.

 

[topched]

Dave Stewart would add.

Quick hide your Touki's

 

[TootooTrain]

Dave Stewart would add.

That power tho.

 

[HOCKEYGOON]

Jay Bruce projection's.... look at that OBP

Where is that from?

Need a good info site for a new keeper league I'm in

 

[Muston Atthews]

Who cares about the last 2 years. He won't be in the same situation as last year. He will be facing different pitching, different parks among other things.

No one knows how all these changes will work. Bruce moving onto a playoff contender how will that get his competitive juices flowing and wanting to provide an impact on an already potent offence

Things with analytics people tend to forget the human element to a players psyche and how it can impact both ways.

Remember Jose was just some scrub until someone believed in him and gave him opportunity.

Bruce moving here could experience a revival to some of his good years.

This is my thinking here as well. I'm willing to eat crow if he's as bad as expected but I think an optimistic outlook is always good. Much better than the doom and gloom many people around here have.

I don't know what the crying is about Saunders, he's on Maicer Izturis level of health, Jays wise anyways

 

[Canada4Gold]

Where is that from?

Need a good info site for a new keeper league I'm in

looks like baseball reference, both that and Fangraphs are good. Fangraphs slightly better

 

[The Podium]

You must have missed the part where Goins had a better OBP than Pillar last year.

Ya my mistake was looking at 2014

I still don't have confidence when he's up at bat.

 

[Muston Atthews]

So to sum your post: "Trade for a worse player who costs more, but might be better cause hey he just wasn't tryin hard in Cincy anymore and ya just never know"

That's not the mindset of a sophisticated Major League front office. I've really liked what these guys have done value wise so far but my god if this goes down as proposed... Yikes

At this point it's as fair to say that Toronto could revitalize Bruce's career as it is to say Saunders will stay healthy and meet his projections.

 

[topched]

This is my thinking here as well. I'm willing to eat crow if he's as bad as expected but I think an optimistic outlook is always good. Much better than the doom and gloom many people around here have.

I don't know what the crying is about Saunders, he's on Maicer Izturis level of health, Jays wise anyways

Because the proposed backup OF (Pompey) is likely to put up more value than the proposed trade target that costs 10M more.

It's not doom and gloom, it's just a dumb trade plain and simple... What makes matters worse is that this is one of the first few trades an overhauled FO would make

 

[Discoverer]

At this point it's as fair to say that Toronto could revitalize Bruce's career as it is to say Saunders will stay healthy and meet his projections.

That's reasonable if the money is even.

 

[topched]

At this point it's as fair to say that Toronto could revitalize Bruce's career as it is to say Saunders will stay healthy and meet his projections.

For arguments sake I'll agree...

But why pay 10M more for equal outcomes? It's nonsensical

 

[Muston Atthews]

Because the proposed backup OF (Pompey) is likely to put up more value than the proposed trade target that costs 10M more.

It's not doom and gloom, it's just a dumb trade plain and simple... What makes matters worse is that this is one of the first few trades an overhauled FO would make

Okay so now we're talking Pompey. Has it ever occurred that any combination of Gibbons/Atkins/Shapiro doesn't feel he's ready to be starting in the majors?