ShaneFalco
Registered User
Which current Blue Jays will remain when team contends again
Billy McKinney, OF: Twenty-four years old, and projected to be the Jays’ Opening Day leadoff hitter. He’s also on his fourth organization despite appearing in just 38 major-league games to date, and he’d bat leadoff because the Blue Jays are totally devoid of viable alternatives atop the lineup. He’s a no.
Lourdes Gurriel, 2B/SS: In theory, this should be an easy yes. Gurriel is 25, and he’s signed through the 2023 season. He’s also got major holes in his swing, and doesn’t play good defence to hack it as a regular at short. Still, Gurriel batted .290 and slugged .478 in the second half last season, his contract is extremely team-friendly, and setting a target of 2023 gives the Jays lots of time to develop their top prospects and become playoff-relevant again. So, he’s a (tepid) yes, even if he’s no more than a utility man by the time it happens.
Justin Smoak, 1B: Thirty-two years old and eligible for free agency at season’s end. He’s the best hitter on the roster, but no.
Kendrys Morales, DH: Turns 36 in June. No.
Randal Grichuk, RF: The tough part of evaluating a rebuilding team is our natural tendency to look long and hard at its best players, even though those players aren’t all that special, precisely because the team is rebuilding. Grichuk led the club in isolated power last season and has 35-homer upside if given the chance to play every day. He also strikes out about five times more than he walks. On a championship team he’s either a fourth outfielder, or your weakest starter. No.
Kevin Pillar, CF: (mimics Bart Simpson at the chalkboard)
I will not overreact to a Kevin Pillar April hot start.
I will not overreact to a Kevin Pillar April hot start.
I will not overreact to a Kevin Pillar…
No.
Freddy Galvis, SS: Last summer, I lobbied the Jays to sign Galvis as a low-cost, solid-return option on a short-term deal. Mission accomplished! Even if he fares as well as hoped, he won’t stay on this team well into his 30s.
Brandon Drury, 3B: Stopgap. No.
Danny Jansen, C: One of the top catching prospects in the game, impressed in his big-league debut next season, Jays control his rights through 2024. As close to an unequivocal yes as we can get.
Teoscar Hernandez, OF/Richard Urena IF, Luke Maile, C/Dalton Pompey, OF: A fairly young bench mob, but we can’t in good conscience predict a pine-rider to stick around for years to come.
Marcus Stroman, SP: He’s a lot better than what he showed in his injury-marred 2018 campaign, he’s in his prime, and he wears his love for his adopted home city on his sleeve. All those factors should make him a candidate to be a Blue Jay for life. Unfortunately sports rarely work out that way. With two years to go until free agency, it’s hard to imagine Stroman pitching for the next Jays contender, barring the off chance for a return engagement in the twilight of his career.
Aaron Sanchez, SP: In a similar spot to Stroman, except he’s got a ton of injury baggage to grapple with. Tough to see the Blue Jays throwing their lot in with a pitcher of his profile, unless they buy low on an extension and Sanchez’s injury troubles all suddenly melt away. Don’t bet on it.
Clay Buchholz, SP: One of my favorite bargain pickups of the winter, but Buchholz might be pushing 40 by the time the Jays vie for the playoffs again.
Matt Shoemaker, SP/Clayton Richard, SP: Stopgaps. No.
Ken Giles, RP: One of the team’s best bets for a bounce back this season, but even the very best relief pitchers in the league should be seen as ticking time bombs, given the volatility of that position…
Ryan Tepera, RP/Bud Norris, RP/Tim Mayza, RP/John Axford, RP/David Paulino, RP/Elvis Luciano, RP: …which is why these guys are all automatic no’s too.
Ryan Borucki, SP: In our conversation last week, Ennis tossed out 24-year-old starting pitcher Ryan Borucki as another candidate to last all the way until the Jays contend again. Borucki might not win a job with the big club coming out of this spring, and even if he does, his weak strikeout rates make him a long shot to make an impact over the long haul.
Even if you’re feeling generous, though, we’re talking maybe three players who’re good bets to go north at the end of March and stick around long enough to compete in a pennant race. So, if you really want to watch the future of baseball in Toronto come April, best to catch a game in Buffalo or New Hampshire instead.
Billy McKinney, OF: Twenty-four years old, and projected to be the Jays’ Opening Day leadoff hitter. He’s also on his fourth organization despite appearing in just 38 major-league games to date, and he’d bat leadoff because the Blue Jays are totally devoid of viable alternatives atop the lineup. He’s a no.
Lourdes Gurriel, 2B/SS: In theory, this should be an easy yes. Gurriel is 25, and he’s signed through the 2023 season. He’s also got major holes in his swing, and doesn’t play good defence to hack it as a regular at short. Still, Gurriel batted .290 and slugged .478 in the second half last season, his contract is extremely team-friendly, and setting a target of 2023 gives the Jays lots of time to develop their top prospects and become playoff-relevant again. So, he’s a (tepid) yes, even if he’s no more than a utility man by the time it happens.
Justin Smoak, 1B: Thirty-two years old and eligible for free agency at season’s end. He’s the best hitter on the roster, but no.
Kendrys Morales, DH: Turns 36 in June. No.
Randal Grichuk, RF: The tough part of evaluating a rebuilding team is our natural tendency to look long and hard at its best players, even though those players aren’t all that special, precisely because the team is rebuilding. Grichuk led the club in isolated power last season and has 35-homer upside if given the chance to play every day. He also strikes out about five times more than he walks. On a championship team he’s either a fourth outfielder, or your weakest starter. No.
Kevin Pillar, CF: (mimics Bart Simpson at the chalkboard)
I will not overreact to a Kevin Pillar April hot start.
I will not overreact to a Kevin Pillar April hot start.
I will not overreact to a Kevin Pillar…
No.
Freddy Galvis, SS: Last summer, I lobbied the Jays to sign Galvis as a low-cost, solid-return option on a short-term deal. Mission accomplished! Even if he fares as well as hoped, he won’t stay on this team well into his 30s.
Brandon Drury, 3B: Stopgap. No.
Danny Jansen, C: One of the top catching prospects in the game, impressed in his big-league debut next season, Jays control his rights through 2024. As close to an unequivocal yes as we can get.
Teoscar Hernandez, OF/Richard Urena IF, Luke Maile, C/Dalton Pompey, OF: A fairly young bench mob, but we can’t in good conscience predict a pine-rider to stick around for years to come.
Marcus Stroman, SP: He’s a lot better than what he showed in his injury-marred 2018 campaign, he’s in his prime, and he wears his love for his adopted home city on his sleeve. All those factors should make him a candidate to be a Blue Jay for life. Unfortunately sports rarely work out that way. With two years to go until free agency, it’s hard to imagine Stroman pitching for the next Jays contender, barring the off chance for a return engagement in the twilight of his career.
Aaron Sanchez, SP: In a similar spot to Stroman, except he’s got a ton of injury baggage to grapple with. Tough to see the Blue Jays throwing their lot in with a pitcher of his profile, unless they buy low on an extension and Sanchez’s injury troubles all suddenly melt away. Don’t bet on it.
Clay Buchholz, SP: One of my favorite bargain pickups of the winter, but Buchholz might be pushing 40 by the time the Jays vie for the playoffs again.
Matt Shoemaker, SP/Clayton Richard, SP: Stopgaps. No.
Ken Giles, RP: One of the team’s best bets for a bounce back this season, but even the very best relief pitchers in the league should be seen as ticking time bombs, given the volatility of that position…
Ryan Tepera, RP/Bud Norris, RP/Tim Mayza, RP/John Axford, RP/David Paulino, RP/Elvis Luciano, RP: …which is why these guys are all automatic no’s too.
Ryan Borucki, SP: In our conversation last week, Ennis tossed out 24-year-old starting pitcher Ryan Borucki as another candidate to last all the way until the Jays contend again. Borucki might not win a job with the big club coming out of this spring, and even if he does, his weak strikeout rates make him a long shot to make an impact over the long haul.
Even if you’re feeling generous, though, we’re talking maybe three players who’re good bets to go north at the end of March and stick around long enough to compete in a pennant race. So, if you really want to watch the future of baseball in Toronto come April, best to catch a game in Buffalo or New Hampshire instead.
