Blue Jays Discussion: Spring Training '19 Part 1: It wouldn't be spring training without drama

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The Nemesis

Semper Tyrannus
Apr 11, 2005
87,847
31,026
Langley, BC
Baseball Prospectus ranked the Jays fourth best among farm systems. Another top five ranking.
keithlaw.jpg


His choice of head-covering obscures the tinfoil he's wearing underneath.
 
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zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
66,937
36,957
as always, war is the average of 2 wars (fipwar and ra9war for pitchers, fwar and bwar for hitters) paced out to 650pa or 32gs or 65ip.


2yr Stats

Team "Veteran"


RF Grichuk (27): 904pa, 5.9b%/28.2k%, .288bip/.242avg, .246iso, 105wrc+, 2.4w650
1B Smoak (32): 1231pa, 12.7b%/23.1k%, .290bip/.256avg, .238iso, 128wrc+, 2.9w650
LF Hernandez (26): 618pa, 7.6b%/32.2k%, .316bip/.243avg, .246iso, 111wrc+, 0.8w650
DH Morales (36): 1079pa, 8.6b%/21.0k%, .275bip/.249avg, .193iso, 102wrc+, 0.1w650
CF Pillar (30): 1174pa, 4.3b%/16.4k%, .281bip/.254avg, .160iso, 88wrc+, 2.6w650
3B Drury (26): 566pa, 6.2b%/21.7k%, .305bip/.253avg, .167iso, 85wrc+, 0.9w650
SS Galvis (29): 1319pa, 6.8b%/19.6k%, .298bip/.251avg, .130iso, 83wrc+, 1.6w650
2B Travis (28): 575pa, 4.0b%/17.7k%, .270bip/.242avg, .159iso, 81wrc+, 0.7w650
C Maile (28): 367pa, 7.6b%/27.8k%, .281bip/.208avg, .105iso, 60wrc+, 0.6w650

Team "Rookie"

SS Gurriel (25): 263pa, 3.4b%/22.4k%, .326bip/.281avg, .165iso, 103wrc+, 0.6w650
3B Vladdy (20): ---
DH Tellez (24): 73pa, 2.7b%/28.8k%, .391bip/.314avg, .300iso, 151wrc+, 4.0w650
1B Jansen (24): 95pa, 9.5b%/17.9k%, .274bip/.247avg, .185iso, 115wrc+, 4.8w650
LF McKinney (24): 132pa, 8.3b%/25.0k%, .296bip/.252avg, .210iso, 112wrc+, 0.3w650
C McGuire (24): 33pa, 6.1b%/27.3k%, .350bip/.290avg, .290iso, 146wrc+, 7.9w650
2B Urena (23): 183pa, 7.1b%/32.8k%, .390bip/.257avg, .084iso, 79wrc+, 0.5w650
RF Alford (24): 29pa, 6.9b%/41.4k%, .200bip/.111avg, .037iso, -15wrc+, -3.4w650
CF Pompey (26): 11pa, 9.1b%/54.5k%, .500bip/.200avg, .000iso, 35wrc+, -3.0w650



"Veteran" Starters

RH Stroman (28): 52gs, 18.8k%, 7.6b%, 62.1gb%, 91era-, 90fip-, 85xfip-, 2.9w32
RH Shoemaker (32): 21gs, 22.4k%, 8.3b%, 39.9gb%, 110era-, 107fip-, 106xfip-, 1.5w32
LH Richard (35): 59gs, 16.8k%, 7.7b%, 58.2gb%, 124era-, 107fip-, 95xfip-, 1.0w32
RH Sanchez (26): 28gs, 17.2k%, 12.2b%, 48.6gb%, 110era-, 116fip-, 118xfip-, 0.6w32
RH Gaviglio (29): 37gs, 17.3k%, 7.4b%, 49.4gb%, 119era-, 121fip-, 103xfip-, 0.4w32
RH Biagini (29): 22gs, 17.3k%, 8.1b%, 54.4gb%, 140era-, 105fip-, 99xfip-, 0.1w32

"Rookie" Starters

LH Borucki (25): 17gs, 16.1k%, 8.0b%, 46.8gb%, 91era-, 89fip-, 109xfip-, 2.9w32
LH Pannone (25): 6gs, 12.6k%, 9.3b%, 34.5gb%, 107era-, 139fip-, 143xfip-, 1.1w32
RH R-Foley (23): 7gs, 28.0k%, 14.0b%, 37.2gb%, 120era-, 117fip-, 99xfip-, 0.0w32
RH Paulino (25): 6gs, 26.6k%, 5.5b%, 30.1gb%, 155era-, 118fip-, 94xfip-, 0.0w32


Relievers

RH Giles (28): 113.0ip, 29.6k%/6.1b%/44.1gb%, 80era-, 63fip-, 73xfip-, 1.3w65
RH Phelps (32): 55.2ip, 26.1k%/10.9b%/45.2gb%, 82era-, 84fip-, 87xfip-, 0.8w65
RH Tepera (31): 142.1ip, 25.6k%/9.5b%/42.7gb%, 83era-, 91fip-, 98xfip-, 0.7w65
LH Mayza (27): 52.2ip, 29.1k%/7.8b%/44.1gb%, 103era-, 75fip-, 79xfip-, 0.4w65
RH Biagini (29): 85.0ip, 18.4k%/7.4b%/50.2gb%, 116era-, 114fip-, 101xfip-, -0.1w65
RH Axford (36): 72.2ip, 21.6k%/11.7b%/52.3gb%, 139era-, 108fip-, 103xfip-, -0.5w65

RH Gaviglio (29): 8.1ip, 30.6k%/8.3b%/38.1gb%, 76era-, 82fip-, 83xfip-, 1.6w65
LH Pannone (25): 7.1ip, 33.3k%/3.3b%/35.3gb%, 58era-, 30fip-, 72xfip-, 1.3w65
RH Paulino (25): 6.2ip, 21.4k%/7.1b%/50.0gb%, 32era-, 99fip-, 100xfip-, 0.5w65
 

ShaneFalco

Registered User
Jul 15, 2012
21,414
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London, On
Outlook for Blue Jays & Kevin Pillar in 2019 - Jays From The Couch

There’s no hiding the fact that the Blue Jays have a lot of questions surrounding their team heading into this season. The latest one is questioning what type of season Kevin Pillar will have this year. The man who Blue Jays fans call “Superman,” is now the longest tenured Blue Jays’ player on their current roster.
Pillar’s best season of record in the major leagues so far was easily his performance during the 2015 season. He was able to record career highs in games played(159), SB(25), BA(.278), OBP(.314), SLG(.399) and OPS(.713). However, the 30-year-old center-fielder has been slowly regressing in each season ever since.
 

Suntouchable13

Registered User
Dec 20, 2003
42,944
17,902
Toronto, ON
When Vlad officially comes up, do you think people will come out to see him play? Will attendance be at least 30K+ consistently for a while?
 

phillipmike

Registered User
Oct 27, 2009
12,481
8,272


Solid deal for the White Sox. I wanted Santana and would have gladly taken him on a minor league deal. Wonder if we could snag someone like Gio Gonzalez.
 

Kurtz

Registered User
Jul 17, 2005
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When Vlad officially comes up, do you think people will come out to see him play? Will attendance be at least 30K+ consistently for a while?

30K+ ? No.

When you look at our attendance numbers this decade, in our leaner years, we've averaged 19-23K fans/game.

Historically, Doc/Clemens starts produced an attendance uptick of around 2k fans/game (if memory holds).

So best-case scenario, you're probably looking at 23-25K fans/game for the first chunk of the season, and a drop-off after that.
 

Discoverer

Registered User
Apr 11, 2012
10,735
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Better deal than Galvis.


Seems odd that he's only going to get a minor league deal given he's been roughly league average for five years now.

As for the Galvis deal, there are multiple articles from each of the last couple years about his leadership on young Padres and Phillies team. Given the current state of the Jays, I think the signing was more about that than any specific on-field expectations.
 

zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
66,937
36,957
smart teams get their value in the 1war players, and pay for the 5war players.

we do the reverse.
 
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Discoverer

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Apr 11, 2012
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30K+ ? No.

When you look at our attendance numbers this decade, in our leaner years, we've averaged 19-23K fans/game.

Historically, Doc/Clemens starts produced an attendance uptick of around 2k fans/game (if memory holds).

So best-case scenario, you're probably looking at 23-25K fans/game for the first chunk of the season, and a drop-off after that.

It's also a little different with a pitcher - I assume at least part of that attendance increase is due to fans specifically targeting those games instead of others. They're people who were going to go to a game regardless, and they just picked the one with the star pitcher. If that's the case, the overall attendance increase is negligible.

For Vlad, I expect a substantial boost for his first game... and that's about it until the team starts winning again.

Having said that, I would guess 25,000 is closer to the new normal now. They easily cleared that in 2012, before all the big trade excitement boosted interest, and they were near 29,000 during last year's disaster.
 

Kurtz

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Jul 17, 2005
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6,889
It's also a little different with a pitcher - I assume at least part of that attendance increase is due to fans specifically targeting those games instead of others. They're people who were going to go to a game regardless, and they just picked the one with the star pitcher. If that's the case, the overall attendance increase is negligible.

For Vlad, I expect a substantial boost for his first game... and that's about it until the team starts winning again.

Having said that, I would guess 25,000 is closer to the new normal now. They easily cleared that in 2012, before all the big trade excitement boosted interest, and they were near 29,000 during last year's disaster.

Fair points. There are a couple of other factors in play when it comes to attendance - weather being a big one in spring, scheduling (aka...when are we playing the Yankees), promotion schedule etc, that will make monthly attendance numbers tricky to predict. I think your 25k figure is maybe a tad high but pretty reasonable overall for the season.
 

Discoverer

Registered User
Apr 11, 2012
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5,873
Fair points. There are a couple of other factors in play when it comes to attendance - weather being a big one in spring, scheduling (aka...when are we playing the Yankees), promotion schedule etc, that will make monthly attendance numbers tricky to predict. I think your 25k figure is maybe a tad high but pretty reasonable overall for the season.

It might be high, for sure... you never really know what casual fan interest is like before a season starts. I just figured take last year's attendance, drop it a little because they're another year removed from being good, and bring it back up some because they should at least be somewhat interesting this year.
 
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AllDay28

Registered User
Oct 15, 2015
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I miss the $2/game season ticket specials from back in the day. Had a buddy in the 100s so it was $2 for 6th row seats behind the catcher. Watched BJ Ryan get hurt :(
 
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theaub

34-38-61-10-13-15
Nov 21, 2008
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Toronto
Attendance will be utter trash as long as the Leafs and Raps are both in the playoffs. Probably a bump for the first couple Vlad games.

I hope opening day doesn't sell out.
 

Uncle

Registered User
Jun 26, 2017
1,281
782
Hey all, watching Yankees vs jays Monday in Florida, any word if I’ll get to watch vladdy? are rosters released the day of any info helpful!
 
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