Speculation: Sports Book USA has Hawks finishing season with 90.5 points

[RayP]

Ya Shaw is just a guy. He's probably going to end up missing 20 games this season too

47 points in 63 games - “just a guy.”

 

[hawksfan50]

When you add all tge additions and deduct all the subtractions the improved Talent and Competence is so vast as to think the club should be over 115 points ...this is without Boqvist or Dach even being in the Show..

There is no issue with any of the likely roster exceot for Seabrook...this is the best Hawks team depth and talent wise we have seen EVER considering Goalies Dmen and Forwards.

The only other issue besides Seabrook's unacceptable and expected poor level of play is whether Keith maintains his better play of tgec2nf half last season or falls off the cliff at age 36 now.


Hopefulky Keith can mai train a high standard for 2 more seasons before we buy him out in Summer 2021...

If Keith can do that then the only problem is going to be Seabrook and whether or not he should play or be stapled to the bench or at least have significantly reduced monutes .

If Seabrook magically rebounds we are Cup winners guaranteed...but I do not believe there can be such a miracle ..I cannot forsee any way possible to regain his former level of sperdxand mobility ...once that goes and you become a slow turtle..it IS o ver..This is the reality for I never believed his decline was any lack of trying hard.. rather he justxaged prenaturelyvand slowed to a crawl level that cannot play well in today's NHL... You might believe that his ,d-partner is good enough to co ver for hom and hide the flaws to any shoft Seabrook is playi g...but thatis a monumental ask when even a kindergartner can tell Seabtook is a slow slow dman now..

It would help if Seabrook could mitigate the lack of slating spreed and agility out by using greater smarts to position better and block shots better and especialky clear pucks a lot lot better.. ut he has not shown that for last 2 seasons ..


He is what he is...not very good..and for $6.875 m cap hit per yr this is the single biggest issue I have in our whole likely roster.


We can speculate who is 3C ....probably comes from 1 of Shaw, Saarela(the elder) or Quenneville ...but it is not going to be as much an issue as Seabrook costing us goals against due to lack of movement t ability.

Even if Dach shows he is "ready",I think they would rather let the ELC slide to control him longer and delay the big extention on 2nd contract longer..Besfides probably best he develops 1 more season in WHL and also plays for Canada at Workd Juniors...

Same idea for Boqvist...play 1 more development season in
Rockford and play for Sweden in World Jrs.

Hawks will be deep enough to succeed without the 2 future stars who once their ELCs over will be big cap rraise guys ..We want to delay that to the 4th season After D-Cat and Strome get big cap hit craises next season..give the Hawks longer time to absorb this cap hits coming be t season and stretching out the next big cap hit consequences to 2023-24...rather than 2022-23 if we use Dach and Boqvist this season in the show .

 

[ColdSteel2]

Last year they had 84 points while rostering the crap I posted above AND switching coaches in the middle of the season. You don’t think that’s a 5 point improvement?

Lehner over Ward is a 5 point improvement on his own if you ask me.

I do but like I said, it’s a 5 point improvement, if not more, playing against last year’s competition.

We’re all very familiar with the improvements within the division. The Hawks haven’t improved much more over most of the teams in the division.

Now let’s take a brief look at the Pacific.

Vegas- Full year of Stone + Gusev and possibly Glass.

Sharks- Bringing back the same team that had a great year, Karlsson might have a much healthier season.

Edmonton- It can’t really get worse, got rid of Lucic and acquired a goal scorer in Neal, Nurse breaking out, had a lot of injuries as well.

LA- Last year was rock bottom, will likely improve.

Calgary- Bringing back a great team.

Vancouver- Young players will keep taking more steps forward, particularly Pettersson and Boeser, both were hurt last year too. Now they have Hughes added to the blue line.

Anaheim- Gibson was hurt for a long time last year. Forward depth was terrible, Kase was hurt a lot, now adding really good prospects in Steel and Comtois. Full season of new coach.

Arizona- Kessel should help.

So really, with almost everyone else improving, the improvements the Hawks made are somewhat mitigated in making these projections. However, the Hawks have a chance to be the most improved team given their changes, it just comes down to a bunch of the moves panning out. A lot of Hawks fans are assuming most will work out. And another factor to consider is nearly half the roster is new. How long is it going to take for these guys to mesh? They cannot afford a 1-2 month breaking in period to build chemistry and still expect to get 100+ points.

 

[ChiHawks10]

It's all I can do, at this point, with things that people say on here.

 

[ColdSteel2]

@ColdSteel2 who in the West has improved so much more than the Hawks?

Nobody really, they have the *chance* to be the most improved.

 

[AmericanDream]

It's all I can do, at this point, with things that people say on here.

what did I miss??lol

 

[ChiHawks10]

what did I miss??lol

Just read the thread.

 

[AmericanDream]

Just read the thread.

I am trying to...I am seeing how learning a new hockey system mid stream is no big f***ing deal apparently..lol

 

[Illinihockey]

Who all did they add and lose again?



When you have played a decade plus under the same exact system, it’s going to take some time to adjust.

They're going to have Makar and Byram all year and they added Kadri. There's a reason their over under is set at 100.5 points

 

[Illinihockey]

47 points in 63 games - “just a guy.”

He's definitely going to replicate those numbers and not do what he's done for the other 7 years of his career.

 

[b1e9a8r5s]

I'd take the over, but I don't think it's that far out of line. I guess I would have expected it to be maybe 94.

Think they go over, but the division is a bitch and an injuries can obviously change things pretty quickly.

 

[ChiHawk21]

uh oh the smartest guys in the room are here to laugh at everyone

 

[AmericanDream]

Nobody really, they have the *chance* to be the most improved.

I think the Jets will drop some for obvious reason. I also think the Preds had to add by subtraction as well, not fully sold on them either. I have no clue what the Blues can do next year, but they just scream a team that crashes back down to reality with Binnington looking normal. The Avs are that one team that really worries me with their speed and skill..Dallas does look strong as well, they honestly could be the best two teams from the Central and the Jets and Preds below us...I think you are correct though, we do have the chance to be the most improved as most of these teams seem to have peaked or really can't get much better than they were last year.

 

[BK]

This isn't football. Hockey systems just aren't that complicated

When you completely change systems they are more complicated than you are implying. Also when you transition from systems that you've played in for 10 years you also lose a lot of the instincts you naturally develop over time. You take on this is fairly inaccurate.

 

[BK]

I do but like I said, it’s a 5 point improvement, if not more, playing against last year’s competition.

We’re all very familiar with the improvements within the division. The Hawks haven’t improved much more over most of the teams in the division.

Now let’s take a brief look at the Pacific.

Vegas- Full year of Stone + Gusev and possibly Glass. They are trying to trade Gusev...

Sharks- Bringing back the same team that had a great year, Karlsson might have a much healthier season. No, they lost Pavelski and Donskoi

Edmonton- It can’t really get worse, got rid of Lucic and acquired a goal scorer in Neal, Nurse breaking out, had a lot of injuries as well. Oilers suck.

LA- Last year was rock bottom, will likely improve. They haven't done a single thing to improve their roster.

Calgary- Bringing back a great team. Replaced Neal with Lucic, this is making your team worse.

Vancouver- Young players will keep taking more steps forward, particularly Pettersson and Boeser, both were hurt last year too. Now they have Hughes added to the blue line. Should improve I agree.

Anaheim- Gibson was hurt for a long time last year. Forward depth was terrible, Kase was hurt a lot, now adding really good prospects in Steel and Comtois. Full season of new coach. Dallas Eakins....

Arizona- Kessel should help. Improved but will they take the next step and will OEL slid more.

So really, with almost everyone else improving, the improvements the Hawks made are somewhat mitigated in making these projections. However, the Hawks have a chance to be the most improved team given their changes, it just comes down to a bunch of the moves panning out. A lot of Hawks fans are assuming most will work out. And another factor to consider is nearly half the roster is new. How long is it going to take for these guys to mesh? They cannot afford a 1-2 month breaking in period to build chemistry and still expect to get 100+ points.

See red. I don't think you really looked at it well. (This is not intended to be snarky so don't take it that way).

 

[Illinihockey]

When you completely change systems they are more complicated than you are implying. Also when you transition from systems that you've played in for 10 years you also lose a lot of the instincts you naturally develop over time. You take on this is fairly inaccurate.

Its very hard going from cover an area and pass your man off at a certain point to, stay with your man in your own end. I can see how it'd be hard for someone who has been playing hockey their entire life in a variety of different systems to change that up.

 

[ColdSteel2]

I think the Jets will drop some for obvious reason. I also think the Preds had to add by subtraction as well, not fully sold on them either. I have no clue what the Blues can do next year, but they just scream a team that crashes back down to reality with Binnington looking normal. The Avs are that one team that really worries me with their speed and skill..Dallas does look strong as well, they honestly could be the best two teams from the Central and the Jets and Preds below us...I think you are correct though, we do have the chance to be the most improved as most of these teams seem to have peaked or really can't get much better than they were last year.

See red. I don't think you really looked at it well. (This is not intended to be snarky so don't take it that way).

Yeah, we’ll see what happens. I could be wrong. Thought about 90 points for an over/under was about right before all of this stuff came out. Anyone who feels everyone is significantly underselling the Hawks would be wise to take the bet. I try not to make too many predictions on here, just put money where I think it belongs and leave the predictions to everyone else.

 

[BK]

Its very hard going from cover an area and pass your man off at a certain point to, stay with your man in your own end. I can see how it'd be hard for someone who has been playing hockey their entire life in a variety of different systems to change that up.

Snark aside it is not that simple and the slight hesitations you have from going from instinct to having to think it are how goals against and missed coverages happen.

 

[ChiHawks10]

Its very hard going from cover an area and pass your man off at a certain point to, stay with your man in your own end. I can see how it'd be hard for someone who has been playing hockey their entire life in a variety of different systems to change that up.

I sometimes wonder how you're actually a hockey coach with some of the things you say. Not being a dick, just being honest...(although it probably still comes off dickish) You dismiss so many things that you probably shouldn't dismiss... It's kinda crazy. Although... not much in the way of systems being taught to 10-11 years old kids, so I kinda get it.

 

[ChiHawks10]

Snark aside it is not that simple and the slight hesitations you have from going from instinct to having to think it are how goals against and missed coverages happen.

Right. Slight hesitation at the pro level, with the speed of the game, causes mistakes that you normally wouldn't make.

 

[Illinihockey]

Snark aside it is not that simple and the slight hesitations you have from going from instinct to having to think it are how goals against and missed coverages happen.

I am over snarking it, but it absolutely isn't rocket science. Its something professionals can pick up in a few weeks or months of practice. Its not something they need to digest over years to understand.

 

[ChiHawks10]

I am over snarking it, but it absolutely isn't rocket science. Its something professionals can pick up in a few weeks or months of practice. Its not something they need to digest over years to understand.

Nobody said years, though. The Hawks picked up JC's new systems in about 4-6 weeks. Which I would say is probably about normal. Repetition will improve instincts, though, and eliminate those hesitations that BK is talking about.

 

[hockeydoug]

Team veteran depth and the net is too much improved. They have a lines of forwards that can defend and mess up opposing matchups. I think they're going to give up about 50 fewer goals (making them very average). I think the offense will have some more hiccups as they work out lines. I think that puts them in the 92-94. Without Nylander, Dach, or Boquist doing anything, I like them 6-7 in conference because of depth.

The Hawks did have a good divisional record, but bad against Pacific.

Dallas offset the improvements by getting slower
Colorado is better, but they have a tendency to make the sum of the parts equal less than the whole.
STL will be similar, I think the good players playing in contract years will cause issues.
NAS will be similar, but they matchup better for Chicago than they had imo
WPG is worse
MIM is worse

SJ is weaker, Vegas is going to be similar (tbd), CGY is strong, but I don't think Van, AZ, EDM, ANA, or LA did anything to get ahead of Chicago for 82 games.

At worst, I see the Hawks as the number 8 in conference and 5th in the division behind Dallas right now.

I think a few significant injuries to the Hawks should be assumed as well, but I do like where the floor is compared to the last 3 seasons. They at least have a stopgap solution for most of the obvious problem areas.

 

[Illinihockey]

Nobody said years, though. The Hawks picked up JC's new systems in about 4-6 weeks. Which I would say is probably about normal. Repetition will improve instincts, though, and eliminate those hesitations that BK is talking about.

Right so if they picked it up in 4-6 weeks, there's not going to be some huge improvement that is going to be made in the 4 weeks from camp starting to the start of the season.

 

[ChiHawks10]

Right so if they picked it up in 4-6 weeks, there's not going to be some huge improvement that is going to be made in the 4 weeks from camp starting to the start of the season.

Not for the vets who were here last year. Like half of this roster is going to be new to the team, new to JC and the rest of the coaching/training staff, and new to the systems, though. As well as new to their teammates and/or linemates.