HF Habs: So who would you like Habs to draft @ 15?

[Janne Niinimaa]

Caufield is overrated.

115 goals in 99 games during the 2018-19 season. I'd like to hear what about his game is overrated to you.

 

[ProspectsFanatic]

115 goals in 99 games during the 2018-19 season. I'd like to hear what about his game is overrated to you.

(Imo) Everything because of that number which obviously is inflated for reasons we know. I wouldn't project his shot to be elite in the NHL (quick and accurate release, but the power doesn't blow you out, like he doesn't have the type of shot you would use on the point, not sure if that will beat NHL goaltenders on a regular basis), the rest of his game is nothing to be excited about factoring his size. Whoever that would have completed Hughes on his wing with a decent skillset and a good accurate shot would have had impressive numbers. The USDP squad and particularly Hughes were too strong for the competition they played against, those numbers can't be taken a face value. Put him on an ok OHL team, average first line, I am guessing he is having something like a 65-45-30-75 season. Even if you project a bit more, he wouldn't be whatsoever in the discussion as a top10 or even top5 talent as I am reading at times here and on other threads. Btw, I still have him somewhere in the first round, probably top20, but he is not a must selection for me at our spot. Is he only a product of Hughes? no. But, you still have to factor that in and it factors a lot. Being 5'7 restrict what you can do because of stick reach and crease/board battles for positioning and puck possession, it is as if everyone forgot about that because Debrincat found success in the NHL, Debrincat is still an exception, not some kind of new norm, it is still greatly limiting making him a boom (likely at best a one-dimensional diminutive sniper) or bust pick, there will probably be better options imo.

 

[Apeironic]

(Imo) Everything because of that number which obviously is inflated for reasons we know. I wouldn't project his shot to be elite in the NHL (quick and accurate release, but the power doesn't blow you out, like he doesn't have the type of shot you would use on the point, not sure if that will beat NHL goaltenders on a regular basis), the rest of his game is nothing to be excited about factoring his size. Whoever that would have completed Hughes on his wing with a decent skillset and a good accurate shot would have had impressive numbers. The USDP squad and particularly Hughes were too strong for the competition they played against, those numbers can't be taken a face value. Put him on an ok OHL team, average first line, I am guessing he is having something like a 65-45-30-75 season. Even if you project a bit more, he wouldn't be whatsoever in the discussion as a top10 or even top5 talent as I am reading at times here and on other threads. Btw, I still have him somewhere in the first round, probably top20, but he is not a must selection for me at our spot. Is he only a product of Hughes? no. But, you still have to factor that in and it factors a lot. Being 5'7 restrict what you can do because of stick reach and crease/board battles for positioning and puck possession, it is as if everyone forgot about that because Debrincat found success in the NHL, Debrincat is an exception, not some kind of new norm, it is still greatly limiting making him a boom (likely at best a one-dimensional diminutive sniper) or bust pick, there will probably be better options imo.

I usually agree with your hot takes-- but I think in this case you are undervaluing him. Hands like that are so rare my friend; if anyone has a larger upside for our pick, it might be Kaliyev, but I assure you this kid(Caufield) is gonna put 30 in the net on a regular basis.

I'd still pick Kaliyev if if were between him and Caufield, his game could translate immediately (that ripper of a one-timer), and in addition I think he would literally refigure our entire powerplay.

 

[webersshot]

Centreman has plus value. Would not be surprised that some centreman are picked way early and we could get a surprising player at 15.

Caufield

 

[NotProkofievian]

In 15 games without Jack Hughes in the lineup (December 8th to January 8th, January 15th to February 15th) Cole Caufield produced 23 points 13 goals including against NCAA and international competition.

This does not take into account games where Jack Hughes played, but didn't play with Caufield, which did happen. It also does not take into account goals on which Jack Hughes was involved, but which it wouldn't be reasonable to assume that Jack ''produced the goal.'' For example, just because Jack shot a puck and Cole pounced on the rebound doesn't mean that this is Cole riding on his coat tails. Rebounds happen.

Caufield undoubtedly benefitted indirectly from playing on the USNTDP in general. Perhaps the biggest benefit to playing with Hughes isn't actually receiving ridiculous passes as much as it is being in the offensive zone a lot. But Cole's F3 role and size is causing him to be underrated, IMO. His shot is accurate from almost any angle and he gets it off quickly, in and out of coverage. He just needs to find opportunities to shoot at the next level and he'll be successful, IMO. If he can shoot 300 times per season, he will have success.

 

[sandviper]

In 15 games without Jack Hughes in the lineup (December 8th to January 8th, January 15th to February 15th) Cole Caufield produced 23 points 13 goals including against NCAA and international competition.

This does not take into account games where Jack Hughes played, but didn't play with Caufield, which did happen. It also does not take into account goals on which Jack Hughes was involved, but which it wouldn't be reasonable to assume that Jack ''produced the goal.'' For example, just because Jack shot a puck and Cole pounced on the rebound doesn't mean that this is Cole riding on his coat tails. Rebounds happen.

Caufield undoubtedly benefitted indirectly from playing on the USNTDP in general. Perhaps the biggest benefit to playing with Hughes isn't actually receiving ridiculous passes as much as it is being in the offensive zone a lot. But Cole's F3 role and size is causing him to be underrated, IMO. His shot is accurate from almost any angle and he gets it off quickly, in and out of coverage. He just needs to find opportunities to shoot at the next level and he'll be successful, IMO. If he can shoot 300 times per season, he will have success.

Call me crazy, but I have a feeling Hughes won’t fall to us...

In seriousness, I agree with your assessment for Caufield and his skills will allow him success provided he’s playing in a system that promotes offensive zone pressure. Not confident he’ll be around at 15, but I know who I want if he is.

 

[WeThreeKings]

If you have concerns about Caufield but would prefer Kaliyev. Then I wonder if you've watched full games of the two.

 

[Habs Icing]

(Imo) Everything because of that number which obviously is inflated for reasons we know. I wouldn't project his shot to be elite in the NHL (quick and accurate release, but the power doesn't blow you out, like he doesn't have the type of shot you would use on the point, not sure if that will beat NHL goaltenders on a regular basis), the rest of his game is nothing to be excited about factoring his size. Whoever that would have completed Hughes on his wing with a decent skillset and a good accurate shot would have had impressive numbers. The USDP squad and particularly Hughes were too strong for the competition they played against, those numbers can't be taken a face value. Put him on an ok OHL team, average first line, I am guessing he is having something like a 65-45-30-75 season. Even if you project a bit more, he wouldn't be whatsoever in the discussion as a top10 or even top5 talent as I am reading at times here and on other threads. Btw, I still have him somewhere in the first round, probably top20, but he is not a must selection for me at our spot. Is he only a product of Hughes? no. But, you still have to factor that in and it factors a lot. Being 5'7 restrict what you can do because of stick reach and crease/board battles for positioning and puck possession, it is as if everyone forgot about that because Debrincat found success in the NHL, Debrincat is still an exception, not some kind of new norm, it is still greatly limiting making him a boom (likely at best a one-dimensional diminutive sniper) or bust pick, there will probably be better options imo.

I don't know if you're exaggerating to make a point but your take on Caufield seems a little off. Let me first state my bias. I'm a hockey chauvinist. What I'm about to post about an American hockey player hurts me.

The way Caufield plays the game he doesn't need to have a shot that can be blasted from the blueline. His scoring is predicated on speed, accuracy and angles. Most of the goals I saw him score used at least two of those elements. He didn't need a bazooka to overpower the goalie. Most of his goals went in because he was accurate and released his shot before the goalie was in position to make the save.

As for the rest of his game,
his skating: his speed is above average. From what I've seen I would say he's faster than Suzuki. His edges are excellent.
handling the puck: is better than most players I saw at the U18. He's not a dangler but that's not his game. His game is positioning, speed and accuracy.
hockey IQ: I'd say it's elite.
vision: I haven't seen an elite vision but then he's a goal scorer and not a playmaker. I don't hear Vegas complain about Pacioretty's crappy vision.
size: a definite disadvantage. I wouldn't ask him to go into the corners and retrieve a puck. But then a smart coach would play him with line mates that would complement his talents.

If you guys are right about KK ( a player I'm not completely sold on) then Caufield would thrive with him as his center. Offensively the better choice would be Domi but I can see a line of Caufied, Domi and whoever being trapped in their own zone in a cycling nightmare. I see Caufield as a better version of Cammalleri.

If he is still on the board when we go to the podium, we should draft him and thank our lucky stars.

 

[Janne Niinimaa]

(Imo) Everything because of that number which obviously is inflated for reasons we know. I wouldn't project his shot to be elite in the NHL (quick and accurate release, but the power doesn't blow you out, like he doesn't have the type of shot you would use on the point, not sure if that will beat NHL goaltenders on a regular basis), the rest of his game is nothing to be excited about factoring his size. Whoever that would have completed Hughes on his wing with a decent skillset and a good accurate shot would have had impressive numbers. The USDP squad and particularly Hughes were too strong for the competition they played against, those numbers can't be taken a face value. Put him on an ok OHL team, average first line, I am guessing he is having something like a 65-45-30-75 season. Even if you project a bit more, he wouldn't be whatsoever in the discussion as a top10 or even top5 talent as I am reading at times here and on other threads. Btw, I still have him somewhere in the first round, probably top20, but he is not a must selection for me at our spot. Is he only a product of Hughes? no. But, you still have to factor that in and it factors a lot. Being 5'7 restrict what you can do because of stick reach and crease/board battles for positioning and puck possession, it is as if everyone forgot about that because Debrincat found success in the NHL, Debrincat is still an exception, not some kind of new norm, it is still greatly limiting making him a boom (likely at best a one-dimensional diminutive sniper) or bust pick, there will probably be better options imo.

I respect you assessment and that it's actually based on multiple facets and to just "he's small". I think everyone else who replied has already covered why we think your assessment is wrong though.

In short, his skating, hands, IQ and even his willingness to go to the net despite his size are all reasons he can overcome his lack of size. I also wouldn't be surprised if he's sneaky defensively with a very active stick.

 

[HockeyDBspecialist]

I'm waiting for the Prospect draft thread to arrive here ( currently with the flyers).

It will be between Soderstrom, Newhook, Suzuki or Heinola

 

[Mdamico]

I'm waiting for the Prospect draft thread to arrive here ( currently with the flyers).

It will be between Soderstrom, Newhook, Suzuki or Heinola

York, Kaliyev and Tomasino will be considere dlikely before Suzuki. I know he's Nick's brother, but he's not worth a 15th overall pick.

 

[HockeyDBspecialist]

York, Kaliyev and Tomasino will be considere dlikely before Suzuki. I know he's Nick's brother, but he's not worth a 15th overall pick.

I like Tomasino and York a lot, would be really happy with York over Suzuki or Heinola


Kaliyev and Suzuki kinda fell down like you said with Suzuki, they are more 20+ I agree.
Kaliyev has an amazing ceiling though, just more of a gambling.

 

[Mdamico]

I like Tomasino and York a lot, would be really happy with York over Suzuki or Heinola


Kaliyev and Suzuki kinda fell down like you said with Suzuki, they are more 20+ I agree.
Kaliyev has an amazing ceiling though, just more of a gambling.

In terms of pure talent and ''tool box'', Kaliyev is a top-10 pick for me. When you factor in how he plays, the inconsistencies in his efforts and his nonchalant defensive play, he drops out of the top-15 alltogether for me. If he can rectify those holes though, ou la la...

 

[HockeyDBspecialist]

If he can rectify those holes though, ou la la...

definitely, he can scores 40g+ in the NHL if he starts to play each game

 

[The Great Weal]

In 15 games without Jack Hughes in the lineup (December 8th to January 8th, January 15th to February 15th) Cole Caufield produced 23 points 13 goals including against NCAA and international competition.

This does not take into account games where Jack Hughes played, but didn't play with Caufield, which did happen. It also does not take into account goals on which Jack Hughes was involved, but which it wouldn't be reasonable to assume that Jack ''produced the goal.'' For example, just because Jack shot a puck and Cole pounced on the rebound doesn't mean that this is Cole riding on his coat tails. Rebounds happen.

Caufield undoubtedly benefitted indirectly from playing on the USNTDP in general. Perhaps the biggest benefit to playing with Hughes isn't actually receiving ridiculous passes as much as it is being in the offensive zone a lot. But Cole's F3 role and size is causing him to be underrated, IMO. His shot is accurate from almost any angle and he gets it off quickly, in and out of coverage. He just needs to find opportunities to shoot at the next level and he'll be successful, IMO. If he can shoot 300 times per season, he will have success.

This goal doesn't happen without Hughes

 

[Fazkovsky]

Caufield is a great pick at 15 and he probably wont be there at 15 but god he is small

We are talking about a guy of Byron or Gionta’s size

 

[Mdamico]

Caufield is a great pick at 15 and he probably wont be there at 15 but god he is small

We are talking about a guy of Byron or Gionta’s size

Caufield won't slide passed Edmonton a 8. They are desperate for scoring forwards, they have enough size.

 

[Whitesnake]

If he can rectify those holes though, ou la la...

They rarely do. Some do. Most don't. Everytime we hear big IFS, it stays IFS.....

 

[Whitesnake]

I'm always a big advocate for talent. But there's a difference between Harlem Globetters skills and hockey skills. If Kaliyev is about to become Scherbak, I say no thank you. If they think he did work on the rest of his game and will improve, well of course, who doesn't want a 35-goal scorer in the league?

Just think that there's a way at 15, as far as it is, to get a talented but more committed player.

 

[TT1]

York, Kaliyev and Tomasino will be considere dlikely before Suzuki. I know he's Nick's brother, but he's not worth a 15th overall pick.

Willing to put money on Suzuki being a top 15 pick this year.

 

[Mdamico]

Willing to put money on Suzuki being a top 15 pick this year.

How's about a 20?

I'd stake everything I've seen this year that Hughes, Kakko, Byram, Cozens, Dach, Turcotte, Zegras, Caufield, Boldy, Krebs, Soderstrom, Broberg, York, Newhook, Harley and more go before Ryan Suzuki.


He was the 13th skater for Team Canada and was outperformed by guys like Rees, Tracey and Tomasino.

And I like the guy, mind you. He's just in the early 20s for me.

 

[ProspectsFanatic]

I don't know if you're exaggerating to make a point but your take on Caufield seems a little off. Let me first state my bias. I'm a hockey chauvinist. What I'm about to post about an American hockey player hurts me.

The way Caufield plays the game he doesn't need to have a shot that can be blasted from the blueline. His scoring is predicated on speed, accuracy and angles. Most of the goals I saw him score used at least two of those elements. He didn't need a bazooka to overpower the goalie. Most of his goals went in because he was accurate and released his shot before the goalie was in position to make the save.

As for the rest of his game,
his skating: his speed is above average. From what I've seen I would say he's faster than Suzuki. His edges are excellent.
handling the puck: is better than most players I saw at the U18. He's not a dangler but that's not his game. His game is positioning, speed and accuracy.
hockey IQ: I'd say it's elite.
vision: I haven't seen an elite vision but then he's a goal scorer and not a playmaker. I don't hear Vegas complain about Pacioretty's crappy vision.
size: a definite disadvantage. I wouldn't ask him to go into the corners and retrieve a puck. But then a smart coach would play him with line mates that would complement his talents.

If you guys are right about KK ( a player I'm not completely sold on) then Caufield would thrive with him as his center. Offensively the better choice would be Domi but I can see a line of Caufied, Domi and whoever being trapped in their own zone in a cycling nightmare. I see Caufield as a better version of Cammalleri.

If he is still on the board when we go to the podium, we should draft him and thank our lucky stars.

I usually agree with your hot takes-- but I think in this case you are undervaluing him. Hands like that are so rare my friend; if anyone has a larger upside for our pick, it might be Kaliyev, but I assure you this kid(Caufield) is gonna put 30 in the net on a regular basis.

I'd still pick Kaliyev if if were between him and Caufield, his game could translate immediately (that ripper of a one-timer), and in addition I think he would literally refigure our entire powerplay.

I respect you assessment and that it's actually based on multiple facets and to just "he's small". I think everyone else who replied has already covered why we think your assessment is wrong though.

In short, his skating, hands, IQ and even his willingness to go to the net despite his size are all reasons he can overcome his lack of size. I also wouldn't be surprised if he's sneaky defensively with a very active stick.

Fair enough, agree to disagree, I didn't expect to have many on my side. I would be really curious to know if he actually went the OHL route with average linemates instead of benefitting from an extremely high-end playmaker like Hughes against slightly inferior competitions what your perspective of him would have been. Even though his sample of game played his large, I don't believe it is representative of what you could project, the rate of easy one-timers and breakaways per game he got was totally absurd which reflects itself in his 22% and 29% shooting ratio in the USHL. If he has such great IQ, I am still puzzled as to why he got so few assists playing with Hughes and some other great linemates that can also put the puck in the net at that level, just from rebounds and tips alone he should have gotten a good amount of them to start with. How will you set up goals versus better competition, and with much worse linemates relative to the competition? Yeah, he was kind of put more in a shooter role, but still, those are very low numbers, Wahlstrom was able to get a good amount of assists being the previous shooter next to Hughes. Caufield assist numbers is a concern to me factoring the level competition and quality of linemates he played against/with. Caufield clearly relies a lot on others to produce, since playing with linemates so far above the competition won't repeat itself ever in his career there is a lot to reflect about before taking that guy with a lottery pick.

By the way, this is coming from someone who had ranked Wahlstrom, which was put almost in the exact same situation, very highly, I am not dropping Caufield simply because of 'inflated' numbers, when you project them without Hughes and against harder competitions is where Caufield doesn't bode as well.

Caufield will rely on others in the NHL to get the puck and create plays for him, since he lacks strength in the corners, is no Byron in terms of speed, can't dangle around NHL level defensemen, even Drouin is averaging pretty badly when attempting that so forget about Caufield doing that, with a poor reach he won't be able to shield the puck effectively which is the go-to efficient move when being pressured by NHL defensemen, so very limited offensively at the NHL level outside of his shot. His shot is very good, but nothing that phenomenal, his goal numbers are special, but that is because he played with very special players against low competition, not because he is actually some phenomenal goal-scoring machine. If you are honest with yourself, forgot the numbers, and only look at his shot isolatedly, you wouldn't classify it as anything out of the ordinary, there are many players from this year class that can rip it similarly as well. Putting Kaliyev aside Caufield might have the edge over the other prospects, but if that is the case it is not by much. You can add to that that he surely will be below average defensively mainly because of the limitations caused by his size. All of this put together makes elite potential to be unlikely, with a relatively decent chance of busting because if he isn't scoring on the top6, he won't help an NHL team win hockey games. All in all, we aren't speaking of a top10 talent here. Like I previously said, to me Caufield sort of became immune of the downside of his stature because you wouldn't want to repeat that Debrincat error twice. But no, the error would be to overlook the limitation of size because of this singular event, it is a huge downfall, he ain't small, he is extremely small. Not the Trey Fix-Wolansky treatment, but projecting him top10 doesn't seem reasonable to me.

Note that I am playing the devil advocate here, he ain't so bad, I'll have him somewhere in the first round, but there is too much hype because of the absurd goal total and recent tournament performance imo. In retrospect, I believe those numbers will show how good Hughes and that USDP team actually was further than how special Caufield was as a player.

 

[NotProkofievian]

Fair enough, agree to disagree, I didn't expect to have many on my side. I would be really curious to know if he actually went the OHL route with average linemates instead of benefitting from an extremely high-end playmaker like Hughes against slightly inferior competitions what your perspective of him would have been. Even though his sample of game played his large, I don't believe it is representative of what you could project, the rate of easy one-timers and breakaways per game he got was totally absurd which reflects itself in his 22% and 29% shooting ratio in the USHL. If he has such great IQ, I am still puzzled as to why he got so few assists playing with Hughes and some other great linemates that can also put the puck in the net at that level, just from rebounds and tips alone he should have gotten a good amount of them to start with. How will you set up goals versus better competition, and with much worse linemates relative to the competition? Yeah, he was kind of put more in a shooter role, but still, those are very low numbers, Wahlstrom was able to get a good amount of assists being the previous shooter next to Hughes. Caufield assist numbers is a concern to me factoring the level competition and quality of linemates he played against/with. Caufield clearly relies a lot on others to produce, since playing with linemates so far above the competition won't repeat itself ever in his career there is a lot to reflect about before taking that guy with a lottery pick.

By the way, this is coming from someone who had ranked Wahlstrom, which was put almost in the exact same situation, very highly, I am not dropping Caufield simply because of 'inflated' numbers, when you project them without Hughes and against harder competitions is where Caufield doesn't bode as well.

Caufield will rely on others in the NHL to get the puck and create plays for him, since he lacks strength in the corners, is no Byron in terms of speed, can't dangle around NHL level defensemen, even Drouin is averaging pretty badly when attempting that so forget about Caufield doing that, with a poor reach he won't be able to shield the puck effectively which is the go-to efficient move when being pressured by NHL defensemen, so very limited offensively at the NHL level outside of his shot. His shot is very good, but nothing that phenomenal, his goal numbers are special, but that is because he played with very special players against low competition, not because he is actually some phenomenal goal-scoring machine. If you are honest with yourself, forgot the numbers, and only look at his shot isolatedly, you wouldn't classify it as anything out of the ordinary, there are many players from this year class that can rip it similarly as well. Putting Kaliyev aside Caufield might have the edge over the other prospects, but if that is the case it is not by much. You can add to that that he surely will be below average defensively mainly because of the limitations caused by his size. All of this put together makes elite potential to be unlikely, with a relatively decent chance of busting because if he isn't scoring on the top6, he won't help an NHL team win hockey games. All in all, we aren't speaking of a top10 talent here. Like I previously said, to me Caufield sort of became immune of the downside of his stature because you wouldn't want to repeat that Debrincat error twice. But no, the error would be to overlook the limitation of size because of this singular event, it is a huge downfall, he ain't small, he is extremely small. Not the Trey Fix-Wolansky treatment, but projecting him top10 doesn't seem reasonable to me.

Note that I am playing the devil advocate here, he ain't so bad, I'll have him somewhere in the first round, but there is too much hype because of the absurd goal total and recent tournament performance imo. In retrospect, I believe those numbers will show how good Hughes and that USDP team actually was further than how special Caufield was as a player.

You don't have to project: he played quite a few games without Hughes and against superior competition to the USHL. The result was 13 goals in 15 games, and 23 points.

Did you know that?

 

[ProspectsFanatic]

You don't have to project: he played quite a few games without Hughes and against superior competition to the USHL. The result was 13 goals in 15 games, and 23 points.

Did you know that?

I know that whoever he played with on that team was far above the competition he played against, this is surely one the best if not the best USDP team. Things clicked for him, high shooting ratio, confidence is high, I am just not so hopeful his game will translate in the NHL. That little one-timer that he just has to bury in in proximity to the net, you don't have 3 of those per game in the NHL, the Habs as a team struggled to get a good one of those per game on their PP. I struggle to see how else he is going to produce if he isn't getting those type of goals regularly, adding to the fact that those goals will be harder to bury in.

 

[NotProkofievian]

I know that whoever he played with on that team was far above the competition he played against, this might have been the best USDP team ever imo. Things clicked for him, high shooting ratio, confidence is high, I am just not so hopeful his game will translate in the NHL. That little one-timer that he just has to bury in in proximity to the net, you don't have 3 of those per game in the NHL, the Habs as a team struggled to get a good one of those per game on their PP.

This period of time was almost entirely against NCAA competition and international competition. He scored against St Cloud State, University of Minnesota Duluth, and Lake Superior without Jack Hughes, all teams above 0.500 in the NCAA. So, how do you factor this into your projection?

Second, how do you factor in to the projection that he wasn't just good at scoring goals, but he's such a ridiculous outlier that he's a country mile past Auston Matthews of all players? Auston Matthews who played with Matthew Tkachuk and Charlie McAvoy with a pretty spicy supporting cast, btw.