Speculation: So what should we give up to get Nikita Gusev back?

[Vasilevskiy]

Re: the bold part: You have to consider draft position (= scouting reports), the time line and some other factors though. I'll try:

Kucherov was a 2nd round pick in 2011 after one season in the KHL. He played 2011-12 in the KHL, then 2012-13 in the QMJHL and in 2013-14 he played in the AHL. After 17 games he 'earned' a call-up and ultimately became a regular on the Lightning lineup (on the bottom-6 mind you). It wasn't until 2014-15 when he eventually fought his way onto our top-6 and became part of the notorious Triplets / TKO line.

Gusev was a 7th round pick in 2012 after two seasons in the KHL. He didn't really break out as a star in the KHL until maybe 2015/2016. Four to five years later. A small kid with lots of skill and potential, but also with lots of open questions surrounding him. Efforts by the Lightning to bring him over to North America failed. In 2016-17 he broke the point-per-game plateau in the KHL and established himself as one of the best active players outside of the NHL. That's also when Yzerman & Co. again failed to lure him over to NA and eventually traded him to Vegas to keep their actual roster intact during the expansion draft.
Even with Vegas holding his rights he stayed in Russia until April 14, 2019 - so not even three months ago - when Vegas signed him to a 1-year ELC. In their seven playoff games he did not dress though.

Judging from draft position alone, Kucherov was easily the safer bet between the two. Kucherov also almost immediately came over to NA and fought his way thru the QMJHL to the AHL and eventually to the NHL and then up the lineup. Gusev never showed that kind of determination or even willingness until a mere three months ago. And even then he was a big enough question mark for Vegas to not play in a single game for them.

I would argue that the path that Gusev took is harder. Both of them were playing for CSKA and both were playing 4th line mutes (2-3 minutes per game). They traded Gusev to a team in the middle of Siberia and had to fight his way through their line-up to ultimately become their star player that later was traded to SKA were he progressed until becoming their best player, on the best team in the league.

People have not seen him play so they think he's just another Dawes of the world. I respect the opinion but Gusev on the proper environment will become a star, and it could be here.

I get people wanting a change and getting more physical, but a Ferland is not going to solve our problems, the problems are behind the bench and up in the mind of the players.

 

[DFC]

I would argue that the path that Gusev took is harder. Both of them were playing for CSKA and both were playing 4th line mutes (2-3 minutes per game). They traded Gusev to a team in the middle of Siberia and had to fight his way through their line-up to ultimately become their star player that later was traded to SKA were he progressed until becoming their best player, on the best team in the league.

People have not seen him play so they think he's just another Dawes of the world. I respect the opinion but Gusev on the proper environment will become a star, and it could be here.

I get people wanting a change and getting more physical, but a Ferland is not going to solve our problems, the problems are behind the bench and up in the mind of the players.

I'm not arguing for Ferland by any means. I think he's probably more over-hyped than Gusev. But I would rather pay a big price to get NYR to retain on Kreider than pay a somewhat big price to pay Gusev 4m, without having a clue whether or not he'll transition to the NHL at 160ish lbs. And even if he has a great regular season, who cares? The playoffs are a whole different story, where size becomes a much bigger factor (Namestnikov, Gourde) and more skill just doesn't seem like a logical fix to our problem right now. We're struggling to get pucks into dirty areas.

 

[Frenchy]

The over hyping of Gusev is absolutely unreal.

Agreed , I beraly know who he is and i see his name everywhere, since the last few days.

 

[Volodya Krutov]

Gusev was an established All-star player in the second best league in the world. Panarin had a similar developing curve in the KHL. It's impossible to foresee whether Gusev will end up as good, but Chicago didn't tell him " boy, it's either the AHL or GTFO", they instantly gave him a shot on the top line & he delivered. The Gusev case was poorly managed by Yzerman, plain & simple.

 

[DistantThunderRep]

Gusev was an established All-star player in the second best league in the world. Panarin had a similar developing curve in the KHL. It's impossible to foresee whether Gusev will end up as good, but Chicago didn't tell him " boy, it's either the AHL or GTFO", they instantly gave him a shot on the top line & he delivered. The Gusev case was poorly managed by Yzerman, plain & simple.

Um...no...Panarin had an open spot to get. There was a massive drop off in Chicago's scoring and they needed offense. They had space on their Top 6 for him, and next to nothing developing in the minors. We haven't had a free spot in the Top 6 for a few years and everyone, including our Hart, Lindsay and Art Ross winner has come through the system. You are just waving your fists and trying to compare apples to oranges with Chicago's situation and ours.

For every Panarin there is 5 others that fail.

 

[Volodya Krutov]

Um...no...Panarin had an open spot to get. There was a massive drop off in Chicago's scoring and they needed offense. They had space on their Top 6 for him, and next to nothing developing in the minors. We haven't had a free spot in the Top 6 for a few years and everyone, including our Hart, Lindsay and Art Ross winner has come through the system. You are just waving your fists and trying to compare apples to oranges with Chicago's situation and ours.

For every Panarin there is 5 others that fail.

Patronizing ain't no work with me. You're making up excuses for a bad decision, Yzerman and his AHL stuff was undoubtedly a persistent chain of reasoning, out of principles, and nothing else. Due to his upside, Gusev financial demands are relatively low and they were even lower 2 years back. Low risk, high reward kind of deal. Gusev is small and not physical, the possibility to fail is still there, but the minimal risk was absolutely worth it, and honestly, we whiffed. We'll discuss that topic in a few months, I guess.

 

[DFC]

Patronizing ain't no work with me. You're making up excuses for a bad decision, Yzerman and his AHL stuff was undoubtedly a persistent chain of reasoning, out of principles, and nothing else. Due to his upside, Gusev financial demands are relatively low and they were even lower 2 years back. Low risk, high reward kind of deal. Gusev is small and not physical, the possibility to fail is still there, but the minimal risk was absolutely worth it, and honestly, we whiffed. We'll discuss that topic in a few months, I guess.

I don't think it was out of principle as much as it was not wanting to guarantee an NHL spot to a guy with absolutely no NHL experience. It wasn't minimal risk at all.

We've whiffed on a lot of players, because there's only so much room, and we're already really small up front. JAM left, Connolly got traded for picks, Panik was lost to waivers. We can't have ALL the good players who've ever passed through the organization.

There's no shortage of skill on this team. Gusev would be redundant right now. Just another guy who can dipsy doodle in all the benign areas of the rink. We need a guy or two who can help our skill guys out, I think.

 

[Volodya Krutov]

I don't think it was out of principle as much as it was not wanting to guarantee an NHL spot to a guy with absolutely no NHL experience. It wasn't minimal risk at all.

We've whiffed on a lot of players, because there's only so much room, and we're already really small up front. JAM left, Connolly got traded for picks, Panik was lost to waivers. We can't have ALL the good players who've ever passed through the organization.

There's no shortage of skill on this team. Gusev would be redundant right now. Just another guy who can dipsy doodle in all the benign areas of the rink. We need a guy or two who can help our skill guys out, I think.

We're talking with hindsight there, before Washington brutalized us last year and made us (rightly so) obsessed with size and physicality. At the time Yzerman took his decision to send Gusev first to the AHL, skill was paramount. Gusev's upside was already established, a 24 years boy drastically improving with 3 professional years under his belt in a top class league. Put yourself in his shoes, he was never going to accept this AHL proposal.
I know Yzerman is a legend, I love him too, but I don't understand how is it so hard to admit this one is on him 100%.

 

[DistantThunderRep]

Patronizing ain't no work with me. You're making up excuses for a bad decision, Yzerman and his AHL stuff was undoubtedly a persistent chain of reasoning, out of principles, and nothing else. Due to his upside, Gusev financial demands are relatively low and they were even lower 2 years back. Low risk, high reward kind of deal. Gusev is small and not physical, the possibility to fail is still there, but the minimal risk was absolutely worth it, and honestly, we whiffed. We'll discuss that topic in a few months, I guess.

That same season we traded him and he was demanding an NHL roster spot, we had

Stamkos
Kucherov
Johnson
Palat
Killorn
Filpulla
Namestnikov
Point
Drouin
Gourde
Peca
Richards

We didn't have a spot for Gusev on the NHL roster which was already tiny as is. Plus we had, at the time, a player who was similar in stature and play style with Drouin. And a big system full of smaller players. Explain where he was going to play on the NHL roster at the time? Gusev wasn't the make or break of getting into the playoffs that year.

Was the trade a bad idea? Maybe? We have zero idea how he will translate to a faster game on smaller ice with bigger and better players. We also have zero idea what his contract demands were, and only know he wanted to play on the NHL roster and nowhere else.

You could make an argument that he MIGHT have been better than some of those players. But that's the thing, he MIGHT have been and the rest of them we have been training and coaching for years.

 

[DaBolts]

I don't think it was out of principle as much as it was not wanting to guarantee an NHL spot to a guy with absolutely no NHL experience. It wasn't minimal risk at all.

We've whiffed on a lot of players, because there's only so much room, and we're already really small up front. JAM left, Connolly got traded for picks, Panik was lost to waivers. We can't have ALL the good players who've ever passed through the organization.

There's no shortage of skill on this team. Gusev would be redundant right now. Just another guy who can dipsy doodle in all the benign areas of the rink. We need a guy or two who can help our skill guys out, I think.

Or our skill guys to start showing up in April and May.

 

[DFC]

Or our skill guys to start showing up in April and May.

They used to, back when Palat helped make space for them. We don't have that guy anymore. Gusev isn't that guy either. I don't think leading the league in team offense by like 79 goals is the objective here.

 

[DFC]

We're talking with hindsight there, before Washington brutalized us last year and made us (rightly so) obsessed with size and physicality. At the time Yzerman took his decision to send Gusev first to the AHL, skill was paramount. Gusev's upside was already established, a 24 years boy drastically improving with 3 professional years under his belt in a top class league. Put yourself in his shoes, he was never going to accept this AHL proposal.
I know Yzerman is a legend, I love him too, but I don't understand how is it so hard to admit this one is on him 100%.

@Still All In might be able to confirm/deny this, but I'm pretty sure it was about not GUARANTEEING Gusev a roster spot. As opposed to forcing him to play in the AHL. He was going to have to fight for a roster spot like any other player, and he had the opportunity to win one. I don't see how that's absurd when, at the time, Gusev was about 150 lbs and had never played a game in North America. We knew we had a very good team, and had no idea how he would translate. We can't just give away roster spots on a gamble when we had sure things in the top-six.

 

[LightningStrikes]

That same season we traded him and he was demanding an NHL roster spot, we had

Stamkos
Kucherov
Johnson
Palat
Killorn
Filpulla
Namestnikov
Point
Drouin
Gourde
Peca
Richards

We didn't have a spot for Gusev on the NHL roster which was already tiny as is. Plus we had, at the time, a player who was similar in stature and play style with Drouin. And a big system full of smaller players. Explain where he was going to play on the NHL roster at the time? Gusev wasn't the make or break of getting into the playoffs that year.

Was the trade a bad idea? Maybe? We have zero idea how he will translate to a faster game on smaller ice with bigger and better players. We also have zero idea what his contract demands were, and only know he wanted to play on the NHL roster and nowhere else.

You could make an argument that he MIGHT have been better than some of those players. But that's the thing, he MIGHT have been and the rest of them we have been training and coaching for years.

I think that’s a fair point: Drouin at the time was a very similar project but came up in NA systems as opposed to Russia on bigger ice and was a 1st round pick as opposed to a 7th. He’s also bigger, speaks the language fluently, minor stuff like that. With our insane depth and prospect pipeline at the time already management had to decide between the two (and likely many others) and once the decision was made (in JD’s favor) they stuck with it. Objectively Drouin was the safer skilled prospect to invest into. It kinda blew up in their faces in the end but that’s the gamble you take and it doesn’t work out every time. Hindsight is a bitch too, ask Yzerman now if he should’ve favored Gusev over Drouin at the time and he will tell you the same thing.

JAM is just another example of a (very) good player who we still couldn’t fit in the end. With Gusev’s unwillingness to go through the system and to accept that there will be no guarantee to play with the big guys he lost all actual value for a already at the time stacked and talented Lightning team and became a trade piece to protect key pieces on said roster.

 

[DistantThunderRep]

I think that’s a fair point: Drouin at the time was a very similar project but came up in NA systems as opposed to Russia on bigger ice and was a 1st round pick as opposed to a 7th. He’s also bigger, speaks the language fluently, minor stuff like that. Management had to decide between the two (and likely many others) and once the decision was made (in JD’s favor) they stuck with it. Objectively Drouin was the safer skilled prospect to invest into. It kinda blew up in their faces in the end but that’s the gamble you take and it doesn’t work out every time. Hindsight is a ***** too, ask Yzerman now if he should’ve favored Gusev over Drouin at the time and he will tell you the same thing.

JAM is just another example of a (very) good player who we still couldn’t fit in the end. With Gusev’s unwillingness to go through the system he lost all actual value for a stacked and already talented Lightning team at the time and became a trade piece to secure key pieces on said roster.

Yeah, its either revisionist history, short term memory, or just generally being jaded, but no one seems to remember what the team was like at the time and shortly before. We drafted Gusev in 2012 and currently by comments are under the assumption that he didn't ask for a spot until 2016/17 season.

EDIT: Just want to add, the thing that bothers me now is that most people have this absolute conviction that Gusev is going to step in and be a star. I am not say he can't or won't, I am saying that nothing was for sure since we drafted him. At the time the trade sucked because we knew he was talented, but it made perfect sense since we apparently knew his intention of NHL or bust and we didn't have space. It wasn't this albatross that Yzerman did.

 

[DFC]

Yeah, its either revisionist history, short term memory, or just generally being jaded, but no one seems to remember what the team was like at the time and shortly before. We drafted Gusev in 2012 and currently by comments are under the assumption that he didn't ask for a spot until 2016/17 season.

And it's not like Gusev is a bad guy here either. He was making good money where he was. The safer bet was to stay there rather than come over with no guarantee. Sometimes it just works out that way.

 

[DistantThunderRep]

And it's not like Gusev is a bad guy here either. He was making good money where he was. The safer bet was to stay there rather than come over with no guarantee. Sometimes it just works out that way.

I am not saying he was a bad guy for his demands. It makes perfect sense for him. But I completely understand the reasons we didn't put him into the roster and why we were willing to move from him especially when he was exhibiting talent.

 

[DFC]

I am not saying he was a bad guy for his demands. It makes perfect sense for him. But I completely understand the reasons we didn't put him into the roster and why we were willing to move from him especially when he was exhibiting talent.

Yeah, we're on the same page. I just didn't want anyone to think I had that view.

 

[LightningStrikes]

And it's not like Gusev is a bad guy here either. He was making good money where he was. The safer bet was to stay there rather than come over with no guarantee. Sometimes it just works out that way.

Again, the Drouin comparison fits here. He also thought he had a right to be on the NHL roster, to play top-6 minutes and get PP time. Right away. And I understand that he didn’t like to be glued to Boyle on the 4th line (hell, we all cursed at Cooper because of it at the time) but that’s how it goes sometimes. The difference is Drouin was on his ELC and only had either the Lightning, the Crunch, the press box or sitting out (while damaging his development, trade value and reputation) as options. Meanwhile Gusev stayed in Russia and played in the 2nd best league in the world which ultimately payed off for him individually as he’s already in the KHL’s top-10 in all-time scoring IIRC. He did what he thought was best for him, his career and his personal life. And that’s absolutely his right. It’s all good.

We still have no idea nor guarantee that his success will (ever) translate to the NHL. That’s a risk for sure. Vegas was not willing to take it either despite the fact that they we’re in midst of choking away a 3-1 series lead against the Sharks. They even signed him to an ELC and I think Gusev, possibly the best non-NHL player right now, could’ve played in the last 3 if not 4 games of that series but they opted against it.

 

[These Are The Days]

Funny how Drouin immediately started producing as soon as we started treating him like a top 6 player as opposed to benching him for entire 3rd periods and stapling him to J.T Brown. Imagine that... God knows it wasn't the AHL that did it for him. An organization and coach's first job is to put players in positions to succeed and we categorically refused to do that with Drouin and Gusev because we refused to approach their situations differently than anyone else. It's been over 10 years and Kessel and Kane STILL suck defensively but no one cared when they were balling out winning Stanley Cups. This is the cap era... You get a short window to win and if you don't you're screwed. Donezo. Rebuilding. Our organization's problem is that it approaches every season and every player on our team like we've won championships and have been in the playoffs for a dozen straight years. If a potentially elite talent walks through your door you don't f***ing squander it because of a philosophical approach. We have yet to even get back to the Finals after a season where few expected us to get that far. We've got about 2 or 3 years and this group is probably done. I don't like our odds if we aren't going to make changes.

A world class organization wins at ALL costs. Nothing else matters. If Gusev is game to come back you get him. If he's a winning piece to a championship then surely he's worth the cost of business. But we aren't gonna find out unless we do it. If he sucks out loud in Tampa I'm not gonna cry about it. We rarely make mistakes and I would rather us make a mistake trying to win a title than to do nothing and get the same results as we have been for years.

I don't know if I can go another season saying "Look on the bright side" I've been doing it for YEARS man... I'm the asshole that hijacked like 49 pages of Cooper talk because I thought the roster could be better and I thought he was doing fine with what we had. Now its 62 win good and we still can't win the darn thing! That was 3 freaking years ago!!

 

[DistantThunderRep]

Funny how Drouin immediately started producing as soon as we started treating him like a top 6 player as opposed to benching him for entire 3rd periods and stapling him to J.T Brown. Imagine that... God knows it wasn't the AHL that did it for him. An organization and coach's first job is to put players in positions to succeed and we categorically refused to do that with Drouin and Gusev because we refused to approach their situations differently than anyone else. It's been over 10 years and Kessel and Kane STILL suck defensively but no one cared when they were balling out winning Stanley Cups. This is the cap era... You get a short window to win and if you don't you're screwed. Donezo. Rebuilding. Our organization's problem is that it approaches every season and every player on our team like we've won championships and have been in the playoffs for a dozen straight years. If a potentially elite talent walks through your door you don't ****ing squander it because of a philosophical approach. We have yet to even get back to the Finals after a season where few expected us to get that far. We've got about 2 or 3 years and this group is probably done. I don't like our odds if we aren't going to make changes.

A world class organization wins at ALL costs. Nothing else matters. If Gusev is game to come back you get him. If he's a winning piece to a championship then surely he's worth the cost of business. But we aren't gonna find out unless we do it. If he sucks out loud in Tampa I'm not gonna cry about it. We rarely make mistakes and I would rather us make a mistake trying to win a title than to do nothing and get the same results as we have been for years.

I don't know if I can go another season saying "Look on the bright side" I've been doing it for YEARS man... I'm the ******* that hijacked like 49 pages of Cooper talk because I thought the roster could be better and I thought he was doing fine with what we had. Now its 62 win good and we still can't win the darn thing! That was 3 freaking years ago!!

You act like our problem for the last 5 years has been scoring goals.

 

[These Are The Days]

You act like our problem for the last 5 years has been scoring goals.

I hate to say it but that's exactly what our problem is come playoff time.

 

[DistantThunderRep]

I hate to say it but that's exactly what our problem is come playoff time.

In 2015/16 Tampa averaged 2.82 GPG. Pittsburgh averaged 3.04 GPG over 7 more games.

2014/15 - 2.5 GPG (Stanley Cup Finals Year), Chicago 3.00 GPG playing 3 less games.

Yes, we stop scoring at our normal cusp, but that is mostly our defense decides to shit the bed more than anything. Both of those numbers are close and the difference wouldn't have been Gusev. The difference would have been our Defense shutting people down a little more.

 

[Hoek]

I hate his attitude. What kind of loser sees what MVP Kucherov did to get here and says, "Nah I'm too good for that." ?

 

[These Are The Days]

In 2015/16 Tampa averaged 2.82 GPG. Pittsburgh averaged 3.04 GPG over 7 more games.

2014/15 - 2.5 GPG (Stanley Cup Finals Year), Chicago 3.00 GPG playing 3 less games.

Yes, we stop scoring at our normal cusp, but that is mostly our defense decides to **** the bed more than anything. Both of those numbers are close and the difference wouldn't have been Gusev. The difference would have been our Defense shutting people down a little more.

You're not wrong. Our defense didn't do us many favors but we've got 120 minutes of not scoring a single goal against DC. Shutout in game 6 of the SCF and going cold in game 7 against Pitts. We're talking 4 separate elimination games and we have ONE goal to show for it. A whopping 0.25 goals for. Total in game 6 in Pitts and the 2 goals we got there it goes to 0.60 goals for in 5 games in those elimination circumstances. The defense can be better but that is unacceptable offensive output. Completely unacceptable. Someone score freaking goal. Support the defense. 0.60 goals on average in our 3 deep runs? How is any team supposed to win with that output? It doesn't even average to a goal per game. Lol can you win on a fraction? Do half goals count if Vasy gets a Shutout?

If it wasn't THAT bad I wouldn't be losing my mind over Gusev like a caveman that just discovered fire. But the sad fact is it IS that bad

 

[DistantThunderRep]

You're not wrong. Our defense didn't do us many favors but we've got 120 minutes of not scoring a single goal against DC. Shutout in game 6 of the SCF and going cold in game 7 against Pitts. We're talking 4 separate elimination games and we have ONE goal to show for it. A whopping 0.25 goals for. Total in game 6 in Pitts and the 2 goals we got there it goes to 0.60 goals for in 5 games in those elimination circumstances. The defense can be better but that is unacceptable offensive output. Completely unacceptable. Someone score freaking goal. Support the defense. 0.60 goals on average in our 3 deep runs? How is any team supposed to win with that output? It doesn't even average to a goal per game.

If it wasn't THAT bad I wouldn't be losing my mind over Gusev like a caveman that just discovered fire. But the sad fact is it IS that bad

I don't know, I am from the mind of hockey from where you build from the net out. And if our defense is just shitting the bed and our forwards are trying to cover for that, then we are doomed to fail. It's I guess the fundamental difference in our thought patterns and where we land on Gusev.