So what now?

[Gary Nylund]

We haven't had a lot of chances to do so, because we sucked for a long time. That has nothing to do with our team now or moving forward, and it says nothing about win/loss results from 5 or 7 game samples against singular teams being effective for team evaluation.

Nobody's said that playoffs are the ONLY thing to consider but playoff games carry a lot more weight than regular season games. You're kidding yourself if you think otherwise.

 

[Old Guy]

Hey guys, a CBJ fan stopping by. I have no intention of being a troll, but I have a question. You folks are great fans and know your hockey. I’ve read this thread because I’m interested.
Have you seen enough of Tampa and Columbus to draw a conclusion of how Toronto would have fared against Tampa? Toronto’s playing style matches up similar to Tampa’s and not Columbus. If TML had won game 5, how would they be faring so far? Note; it’s an option question so there are no incorrect answers. Thanks. I’ll hang up and listen to your answer.

 

[All Mod Cons]

Hey guys, a CBJ fan stopping by. I have no intention of being a troll, but I have a question. You folks are great fans and know your hockey. I’ve read this thread because I’m interested.
Have you seen enough of Tampa and Columbus to draw a conclusion of how Toronto would have fared against Tampa? Toronto’s playing style matches up similar to Tampa’s and not Columbus. If TML had won game 5, how would they be faring so far? Note; it’s an option question so there are no incorrect answers. Thanks. I’ll hang up and listen to your answer.

We'd probably fair OK until there's an elimination game, then we'd be lifeless and lose

 

[Gallagbi]

Hey guys, a CBJ fan stopping by. I have no intention of being a troll, but I have a question. You folks are great fans and know your hockey. I’ve read this thread because I’m interested.
Have you seen enough of Tampa and Columbus to draw a conclusion of how Toronto would have fared against Tampa? Toronto’s playing style matches up similar to Tampa’s and not Columbus. If TML had won game 5, how would they be faring so far? Note; it’s an option question so there are no incorrect answers. Thanks. I’ll hang up and listen to your answer.

Honestly nobody knows. The Leafs could walk over Tampa because we can score with them or they could simply put us out in 4 because they outplayed us at our own game

 

[ShaneFalco]

Hey guys, a CBJ fan stopping by. I have no intention of being a troll, but I have a question. You folks are great fans and know your hockey. I’ve read this thread because I’m interested.
Have you seen enough of Tampa and Columbus to draw a conclusion of how Toronto would have fared against Tampa? Toronto’s playing style matches up similar to Tampa’s and not Columbus. If TML had won game 5, how would they be faring so far? Note; it’s an option question so there are no incorrect answers. Thanks. I’ll hang up and listen to your answer.

Yeah I think the Leafs match up much better against the high-flying teams. We have trouble when other teams play a tight checking, disciplined game. Having said that, this group hasn't proven they can beat anyone in the playoffs. Nor can they ever develop any consistency it seems.

 

[Buds17]

Hey guys, a CBJ fan stopping by. I have no intention of being a troll, but I have a question. You folks are great fans and know your hockey. I’ve read this thread because I’m interested.
Have you seen enough of Tampa and Columbus to draw a conclusion of how Toronto would have fared against Tampa? Toronto’s playing style matches up similar to Tampa’s and not Columbus. If TML had won game 5, how would they be faring so far? Note; it’s an option question so there are no incorrect answers. Thanks. I’ll hang up and listen to your answer.

Toronto vs Tampa was looking to be a series prior to the stoppage. I'd say Tampa would have been favoured to win and that's probably what would have happened. I do like to think it would have been a competitive series (six or seven) and that Muzzin would have returned. I guess losing in the Round of 16 is a bit better than losing in the Round of 24. Can only guess!

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Pretty sure all 3 are still playing, I really like Marner, but not sure you watch other teams, Aho is a stud watching him in the qualifying round he looked insane....

Much easier playing on a team with best defenders in NHL

 

[IPS]

Yes, easily.

lmfao

Aho/Point/Rantanen do way better than Marner when the games matter most. I'm sort of over this regular season stuff. We got Johnny Gaudreau 2.0 with Marner.

 

[egd27]

Leafs stats for the entire Qualifying round of the playoffs and ranking overall:

5v5 adjusted:

Expected Goals For/60:
2.13 (10th out of 24 NHL teams)

Actual Goals For/60:
0.65 (24th out of 24 NHL teams)

Expected Goals Against/60:
1.77 (3rd fewest out of 24 NHL teams)

Actual Goals Against/60:
2.15 (12th fewest out of 24 NHL teams)

Expected Goal Differential/60:
54.64 (9th out of 24 NHL teams)

Actual Goal Differential/60:
23.25 (23rd out of 24 NHL teams)

Save%: 92.61 (12th out of 24 NHL teams)


PK:

Expected Goals Against/60:
3.14 (3rd fewest out of 24 NHL teams)

Actual Goals Against/60:
0 (Tied for 1st with 3 others out of 24 NHL teams)

PP:

Expected Goals For/60:
6.65 (8th out of 24 NHL teams)

Actual Goals For/60:
5.53 (14th out of 24 NHL teams)

All situations, not adjusted:

Expected wins - 3 (Top 8 of 16)

Actual wins - 2 (9th of 16)

Don't much care about the other stats

 

[Dekes For Days]

playoff games carry a lot more weight than regular season games.

If you consider the necessary context, it can be valuable additional information, but small samples against one team doesn't trump big samples against a variety of teams for the purposes of team evaluation.

 

[Cleetus]

Much easier playing on a team with best defenders in NHL

yes still a very good player, number 1 center, had a great year, still playing, was out doing a good job last night shutting down boston, yawn excuses for everything, so many excuses given for our players, must be getting real hard to defend this team when it cant even make the playoffs

 

[JT AM da real deal]

yes still a very good player, number 1 center, had a great year, still playing, was out doing a good job last night shutting down boston, yawn excuses for everything

Agreed but da heart of that team is Staal and defense corps ... it is why they they have heart of a lion ... but Aho helps and I think gives them a bit more than CLB to take da east unless their tending blows it for them

 

[Gary Nylund]

If you consider the necessary context, it can be valuable additional information, but small samples against one team doesn't trump big samples against a variety of teams for the purposes of team evaluation.

Really? You mean that how a team plays in the playoffs can be valuable? Wow, that's quite the concession coming from you, are you feeling OK?

 

[Dekes For Days]

Aho/Point/Rantanen do way better than Marner when the games matter most

Except they don't. Playoffs just provide vastly different opportunities. In the past 3 years, the Leafs have faced the 1st, 3rd, and 1st best defensive teams in the league in the playoffs, and some great goaltenders, while getting the least PP time of any team in the playoffs.

Aho in contrast, just put up a bunch of points against the single worst defensive team in the league, by far, and a 38 year old goalie who just had a horrible season, while getting over 4 minutes of PP TOI/GP, and suddenly he's a god.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Really? You mean that how a team plays in the playoffs can be valuable?

Yes, as long as we apply the proper context, which it doesn't seem you are.

 

[Cleetus]

Except they don't. Playoffs just provide vastly different opportunities. In the past 3 years, the Leafs have faced the 1st, 3rd, and 1st best defensive teams in the league in the playoffs, and some great goaltenders, while getting the least PP time of any team in the playoffs.

Aho in contrast, just put up a bunch of points against the single worst defensive team in the league, by far, and a 38 year old goalie who just had a horrible season, while getting over 4 minutes of PP TOI/GP, and suddenly he's a god.

yes Aho still playing, point per game against Boston as well. looked good last night as well, very good player.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Yes, as long as we apply the proper context, which it doesn't seem you are.

Go on I'm listening.

 

[Dekes For Days]

very good player.

Nobody said he wasn't a good player.

 

[Stephen]

I think the big takeaway here is “other players accomplishments don’t matter because they’re not Leafs.”

Carolina made the conference finals? Pfft. They’re just lucky they didn’t play Boston in the first round.

Aho scores points against the Rangers? They won a lottery! How good can they be?

Point scores goals in the playoffs? Have you seen who he plays with?

Rantanen and the Avs won a playoff round? Have you seen Dave Rittich/Mike Smith?

Barzal and the Islanders swept the Penguins? Impossible!

 

[Dekes For Days]

I think the big takeaway here is “other players accomplishments don’t matter because they’re not Leafs.”
Carolina made the conference finals? Pfft. They’re just lucky they didn’t play Boston in the first round.
Aho scores points against the Rangers? They won a lottery! How good can they be?
Point scores goals in the playoffs? Have you seen who he plays with?
Rantanen and the Avs won a playoff round? Have you seen Dave Rittich/Mike Smith?
Barzal and the Islanders swept the Penguins? Impossible!

The big takeaway is don't ignore crucial context and only consider small sample sizes when comparing players.

 

[Stephen]

Nobody said he wasn't a good player.

In your estimation, what kind of things would Aho need to do to surpass Marner in the NHL aside from actual accomplishments? What kind of context is Aho missing? Would he need to play hockey in a blue sweater? Would that help?

 

[Dekes For Days]

In your estimation, what kind of things would Aho need to do to surpass Marner in the NHL

Play better than him over a significant sample size.

 

[Stephen]

Play better than him over a significant sample size.

And that sample size would probably be determined by you, right?

 

[Dekes For Days]

And that sample size would probably be determined by you, right?

Are you denying the importance of sample sizes? Do you think 3-5 games is an appropriate sample size? Do you think who a team is playing against is irrelevant? I don't really get your point.

 

[Stephen]

Are you denying the importance of sample sizes? Do you think 3-5 games is an appropriate sample size? Do you think who a team is playing against is irrelevant? I don't really get your point.

The problem is you tend to use “sample size” rather arbitrarily to suit your own preferences.

It’s fine to have preferences as a fan but come off the scientific methodology angle like you’re rigorously conducting research.

Aho and Marner have played the same number of playoff games, have a similar number of career playoff points and Aho and the Hurricanes are 3-1 in playoff and play-in rounds and the Leafs are 0-4 in the same sample size and time frame.