Blue Jays Discussion: So long Pillar, and thanks for all the catches

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Longshot

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Jul 2, 2008
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Ontario, Canada
love finding 2war players like Grichuk for peanuts, don't love paying market value for 2war players so much.

I'm guessing Jays management is gambling Grichuk will become more than a 2war player in the next few years. And if he doesn't, they hope they develop players better than 2war that will populate the lineup and push him down in the order.
 

Kurtz

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Jul 17, 2005
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3) I don't have super super up-to-date #s, but the generally expected/accepted $/fWAR going rate in free agency is at least $10.5m per win as of 2017. So $10.4m for a 2-3 fWAR guy with whole-OF flexibility over his 27 to 32/33 age seasons is a totally reasonable price.

I've been saying it for 3 years, but people need to stop using this metric to justify new contract signings. It didn't make sense in 2017 and it makes less sense in 2019.

If you're signing 1 fwar players to $10 mil/year, 2 fwar players to $20 mil/year and 3 fwar players to $30 mil/year, you're not going to last long as a GM.

That $10 mil/1fwar figure, if accurate, is there simply to serve as a warning against signing older free agents to big deals. It's not meant to serve as an acceptable baseline for your own player signings.


Having said that, I see Grichuk as a 3 fwar+ player for us in the future, so this signing is a solid gamble. Whatever budget savings we have this year or next (or the year after) won't carry over into the following years, so it's best we sign as many of these front-loaded deals as we can during years where our payroll won't be near budget, and save money on the back-end years where hopefully we're contending and signing free agents (starting probably around 2022).
 

The Nemesis

Semper Tyrannus
Apr 11, 2005
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The past three years Grichuk has played between 122 and 132 games (and he had some injuries). On what planet does that make him a "4th OF"?

He is a solid major league player. A 162 game average of 28 homeruns and a .788 OPS.

If you think I'm lying, go look at his stats:

Randal Grichuk Stats | Baseball-Reference.com

He was referring to my coment from the posted conversation I was having with woodman, where I said I would be fine with re-signing grichuk (before the extension was announced) because with him the worst case scenario with him in terms of future performance (ie basically assuming that he peaks early and declines a bit from where he is due to injury or just plain poor play) would still be that he'd be a good 4th OF on a very good (meaning elite) team. I did clarify afterwards that I wasn't meaning to imply he wasn't a solid regular MLBer and a starting out fielder on the vast majority of MLB rosters. It was poor word choice on my part.
 
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Fonzieleaf

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Jul 8, 2013
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So, you figured it out? This wasn't a trade to make them better immediately? Unless of course Alford comes up and is amazing.

I just want to be sure. I'm always happy to educate casual fans about what is happening with my favourite team.
Yes I did and thanks for telling me in such a classy way! :nod:
 

Ronald Ocean

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Sep 12, 2008
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Don't really understand the Grichuk contract. He is what he is right now... his last 3 years have been pretty much the same numbers wise unless I'm missing something... is that really worth locking up for 5 years?
 

Brock Boeser Laser Show

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Sep 27, 2017
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Don't really understand the Grichuk contract. He is what he is right now... his last 3 years have been pretty much the same numbers wise unless I'm missing something... is that really worth locking up for 5 years?
Jays don't have much OF depth in the organization so I think that played into this. They don't have many OF's in the upper minors that look like future regulars.

lf you looked to add an OF in free agency over the next few years you probably won't do better than Grichuk and his .780-.800 OPS(and 2.5 WAR) for 9 million.
 

zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
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They'll probably trade Smoak next, and maybe even Stroman and Sanchez by the start of next season. Which makes me wonder: How soon can we expect to be decent again?

around when Price's contract ends.
 

zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
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He was referring to my coment from the posted conversation I was having with woodman, where I said I would be fine with re-signing grichuk (before the extension was announced) because with him the worst case scenario with him in terms of future performance (ie basically assuming that he peaks early and declines a bit from where he is due to injury or just plain poor play) would still be that he'd be a good 4th OF on a very good (meaning elite) team. I did clarify afterwards that I wasn't meaning to imply he wasn't a solid regular MLBer and a starting out fielder on the vast majority of MLB rosters. It was poor word choice on my part.

5yr /$50m still seems a lot for a guy you think of as a borderline starter tho.
 

Kurtz

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Jul 17, 2005
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Don't really understand the Grichuk contract. He is what he is right now... his last 3 years have been pretty much the same numbers wise unless I'm missing something... is that really worth locking up for 5 years?

Well, consider this. Currently, there are maybe a half-dozens centrefielders in the game who can be reasonably expected to put up a near 800 OPS or better this year. With this (stat-friendly btw) positional shift, Randal joins their ranks.
 
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The Nemesis

Semper Tyrannus
Apr 11, 2005
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Langley, BC
I just noticed that on my bookshelf I have the following Vancouver Canadians bobbleheads:

Kevin Pillar (x2)
Noah Syndergaard
Roberto Osuna
Marcus Stroman

The jays connections are dwindling (the only player I've missed so far is Sanchez. I had an appointment the day they were giving one out in 2015 that I couldn't get out of.) :laugh:
 
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