GDT: Slovenia - Slovakia

[Shwan]

Throwback to when plastered hero of Slovakia Richard Panik tried using his status as an Arizona Coyote to get out of an arrest in Scottsdale.

 

[SoundAndFury]

However, the notion about talking arrogantly about a topic that they know little about and mocking someone who knows what they are talking about (@Namejs ) was pointed towards @SoundAndFury

Yes, I actually made multiple mistakes yesterday by not reading his post carefully and, evidently, even had the wrong situation in the standings in my head (again fairly obvious even yesterday) which I acknowledged. My heart truly goes out to Namejs. I definitely recommend you to follow his postings to learn more from his expertise.

 

[Namejs]

That's more like it!

In other words, it's more likely (though only slightly more likely) for Latvia than Slovakia to advance to the play-offs.

Which is exactly what I'm predicting, even though I obviously wish for the result(s) to be different.



Plus, as mentioned, Slovakia has a looooong history of collapsing in "must-win games" specifically against weaker opponents, so watch out!

There is unrest in Slovak team, captain Hrivík cursing out Hudáček in front of TV cameras, etc. All of that adds up to even more pressure on Slovakia. In contrast, Latvians play at home and the full arena should be their 6th/7th player on the ice.



Well, I guess he can afford to talk **** all day long, sitting on a pile of 30 billion dollars as he modestly admitted!

You're so limited in your understanding that you did not even realize Poiquets posted an identical line of reasoning with exactly the same calculations and the same conclusions as mine.

The only difference is that I took the aggregated averaged out odds between all the available bookies, which might or might not be closer to the truth, as it's just the average odds unadjusted for the size of each market, which should be a key metric.

Different methodology, <2% difference.

 

[Faterson]

You're so limited in your understanding that you did not even realize Poiquets posted an identical line of reasoning with exactly the same calculations and the same conclusions as mine.

The only difference is that

Woops! "Exactly the same" and "the only difference is...". There he goes again, the 30-billion genius! Using exactly and roughly as freely interchangeable synonyms is the type of subtlety that dictionaries, given how limited they are in their understanding of language, are unable to capture, right?

So, nope, the probabilities for tomorrow are not "exactly 50/50" as you claimed.

A ratio of 52 to 48 is a pretty sizable majority, far from negligible, as any elected US president would happily tell you.

Plus, when you factor in external factors (something that both mathematics and betting markets are chronically incapable of doing), such as zero motivation for Switzerland in their final group game; top motivation for Latvia, with the home crowd at its back; internal strife and tension within Slovakia's team; and Slovakia's long-standing inability to win "must-win" games against weaker opponents – then the actual probability for Latvia to advance to the play-offs tomorrow is a lot higher than just 52 to 48.

If Slovakia manages to squeak into the play-offs tomorrow after all (and they definitely don't deserve to do so at the expense of the host nation), I will consider it an upset, and mathematics confirms that's exactly what it would be.

 

[Namejs]

Woops! "Exactly the same" and "the only difference is...". There he goes again, the 30-billion genius! Using exactly and roughly as freely interchangeable synonyms is the type of subtlety that dictionaries, given how limited they are in their understanding of language, are unable to capture, right?

So, nope, the probabilities for tomorrow are not "exactly 50/50" as you claimed.

A ratio of 52 to 48 is a pretty sizable majority, far from negligible, as any elected US president would happily tell you.

Plus, when you factor in external factors (something that both mathematics and betting markets are chronically incapable of doing), such as zero motivation for Switzerland in their final group game; top motivation for Latvia, with the home crowd at its back; internal strife and tension within Slovakia's team; and Slovakia's long-standing inability to win "must-win" games against weaker opponents – then the actual probability for Latvia to advance to the play-offs tomorrow is a lot higher than just 52 to 48.

If Slovakia manages to squeak into the play-offs tomorrow after all (and they definitely don't deserve to do so at the expense of the host nation), I will consider it an upset, and mathematics confirms that's exactly what it would be.

Wordy people without the ability of using logic are very good at fooling themselves that they're not complete fools.

You're building all of these levels of faulty 'reasoning' on top of each other, but literally all of it is horseshit.

Betting markets are just like any other market, they're guided by market forces. If the odds are wrong, people are going to invest and the odds will change accordingly. So all of the factors you can think of are included in the implied probabilities and the market is in eternal flux and is not only the best, but the only quantitative way of gauging the likelihood of sports outcomes.

Please, consult a dictionary for the meaning of the word 'upset'. Single coinflips do not produce upsets.

 

[Faterson]

literally all of it is horseshit.

Literally, eh? Just like you said the odds were exactly/roughly 50-50, right?

consult a dictionary for the meaning of the word 'upset'.

It means that if Slovakia moves on to the play-offs, it's going to be an upset because it would be against the odds.