GDT: Slovenia - Slovakia

[Faterson]

Only a few left, though, not willing to risk not seeing it live.

You're gonna skip lunch & dinner for a couple of weeks, and you'll be financially healed again.

 

[Rillijuti]

Odds on Slovakia scoring a victory against Norway: 1,26
Odds on Latvia scoring a point against Switzerland: 2,45

50/50 The man is a genius of creative accounting.

It is 50-50 based on those odds. Actually Latvia is more than 50%

 

[Faterson]

Now it's exactly 50/50 between Slovakia and Latvia and I guess I'm going to the Switzerland game.

Which amounts to roughly 50%.

Roughly? It was exactly 50% only 10 minutes ago or so. At this rate, it's gonna be 100% slam dunk for Latvia in about 15 minutes from now.

 

[Namejs]

It is 50-50 based on those odds. Actually Latvia is more than 50%

That's the funny thing, I'm not even posting my opinion on the matter, it's just directly converted implied probabilities from the bookies.

I'd say it's slightly above 50% as well, especially if the Swiss roll over Czechia.

 

[SoundAndFury]

We don't have to score a point against Switzerland.

Even yesterday I said a scenario where 5 points are enough for Slovakia is very likely. Could have just told me to take a better look at the standings, smh.

 

[Namejs]

Roughly? It was exactly 50% only 10 minutes ago or so. At this rate, it's gonna be 100% slam dunk for Latvia in about 15 minutes from now.

It's exactly 50/50 if you convert the bookie odds and align it proportionally, removing the bookie 'take', which has been a too challenging of a concept for anyone here to understand, so I've removed it in my explanation and introduced the word 'roughly', as it still holds if you don't remove the bookie take.

 

[Namejs]

You're gonna skip lunch & dinner for a couple of weeks, and you'll be financially healed again.

So your jab at me is that I'm completely broke because I can count?

 

[Faterson]

It's exactly 50/50 if you convert the bookie odds and align it proportionally, removing the bookie 'take', which has been a too challenging of a concept for anyone here to understand

Yeah, thanks a lot for removing it for us dumb folks in this thread. No chance in hell any of us here would ever understand that.

so I've removed it in my explanation and introduced the word 'roughly'

Treating the words exactly and roughly as synonyms is certainly a novel concept in the realm of linguistics, too. My hat's off to you!

So your jab at me is that I'm completely broke because I can count?

Nope, but it's been reported that ticket prices in Riga are extremely high, so I guess it basically comes down to choosing between attending a hockey game and eating normally for a couple of weeks. I agree with you, though – I'd choose hockey over food any day of the week.

 

[member 305909]

There are some teams including Slovenia which are kind of in between teams meaning they are not good enough for the top-tier but are too good for the div1a level.

 

[Namejs]

Yeah, thanks a lot for removing it for us dumb folks in this thread. No chance in hell any of us here would ever understand that.



Treating the words exactly and roughly as synonyms is certainly a novel concept in the realm of linguistics, too. My hat's off to you!



Nope, but it's been reported that ticket prices in Riga are extremely high, so I guess it basically comes down to choosing between attending a hockey game and eating normally for a couple of weeks. I agree with you, though – I'd choose hockey over food any day of the week.

I can chip in with some financial advice as well, if you would have to skip meals after spending 80 euros.

 

[WarriorofTime]

There are some teams including Slovenia which are kind of in between teams meaning they are not good enough for the top-tier but are too good for the div1a level.

Their team is extremely old, and they got to play at home last year to get promoted. Jan Drozg is a solid player, but other than that they don't really have any standouts under 30, so I am not sure how their national program is going to do moving forward. They haven't been able to do much of anything in the U20 level in a while, they lost a do or die game to avoid avoid relegation to the third division against Hungary most recently for instance. I don't necessarily take it for granted that they'll earn a promotion over the likes of Italy next year.

 

[Faterson]

I can chip in with some financial advice as well, if you would have to skip meals after spending 80 euros.

If the advice is as solid as your statements in probability theory and linguistics on this board, I hope you don't mind I'd opt for a prolonged fast instead.

 

[Namejs]

If the advice is as solid as your statements in probability theory and linguistics on this board, I hope you don't mind I'd opt for a prolonged fast instead.

I actually work as an analyst for a financial institution w/ over €30 bn in market cap.

You keep skipping those meals, boy.

 

[jcbio11]

I actually work as an analyst for a financial institution w/ over €30 bn in market cap.

You keep skipping those meals, boy.

Oh no

 

[vlady]

That's the funny thing, I'm not even posting my opinion on the matter, it's just directly converted implied probabilities from the bookies.

I'd say it's slightly above 50% as well, especially if the Swiss roll over Czechia.

I think all of these calculations are quite pointless. You do realize the bookies don't "know" the probabilities of any team winning a game. It is all just guesswork. Educated guesses, yes, but still guesses.

You can't calculate real probabilities from guesses.

I am not sure what you are getting out of this.

My own educated guess at this point is that Slovakia will not take 3 points against Norway and the SUI-LAT game will therefore become irrelevant.

 

[jcbio11]

I think all of these calculations are quite pointless. You do realize the bookies don't "know" the probabilities of any team winning a game. It is all just guesswork. Educated guesses, yes, but still guesses.

You can't calculate real probabilities from guesses.

I am not sure what you are getting out of this.

My own educated guess at this point is that Slovakia will not take 3 points against Norway and the SUI-LAT game will therefore become irrelevant.

My guess is we take it over Norway 5 - 2 - we finally find our offense. And I don't see Switzerland allowing Latvia a point. And thus our QF will be born. It won't be the most glorious or the most deserved, but it will happen.

 

[WarriorofTime]

I think all of these calculations are quite pointless. You do realize the bookies don't "know" the probabilities of any team winning a game. It is all just guesswork. Educated guesses, yes, but still guesses.

You can't calculate real probabilities from guesses.

I am not sure what you are getting out of this.

My own educated guess at this point is that Slovakia will not take 3 points against Norway and the SUI-LAT game will therefore become irrelevant.

There is a lot of data that goes into it.

 

[Faterson]

I actually work as an analyst for a financial institution w/ over €30 bn in market cap.

Financial crisis incoming...

Back on topic: my prediction is that Latvia moves on to the play-offs, and Slovakia moves to the airport. The only question is whether Slovakia craps the bed in the matinée game already, so that Namejs can add his hard-earned €80 to the pile of 30 billion because the evening game will be meaningless, or whether Latvia gets the necessary point in its final group game (if needed).

No Slovak hockey fan needs to be reminded that Slovakia has a tendency to collapse in "must-win" games against weak opponents. It's a tradition going back to Nagano, Salt Lake City, etc. It would be anything but a shocker if the same thing happens again on Tuesday against Norway. I don't wish for it to happen, but it has happened so frequently in the past it's pretty likely it may happen again in this year's tourney.

 

[PapaQ]

Seriously, guy. There's only two conditionals now. It's really not that hard, a 10 year old could get it.

We don't have to score a point against Switzerland. We have to score a point against Switzerland only if Slovakia defeats Norway in regulation. The likelihood of Latvia making the quarters is the COMBINED probability of Latvia scoring a point and/OR Norway scoring a point. Which amounts to roughly 50%.

It is highly likely that Slovakia wins vs. Norway. It is unlikely that Latvia gets a point against Switzerland. This means, that it is more likely for Slovakia to advance. It is that simple.

I am not saying this is what happens, but the odds are definitely not 50/50.

 

[Czechboy]

It is highly likely that Slovakia wins vs. Norway. It is unlikely that Latvia gets a point against Switzerland. This means, that it is more likely for Slovakia to advance. It is that simple.

I am not saying this is what happens, but the odds are definitely not 50/50.

One Slovak poster had a pretty good fear... Swiss are guaranteed first place and won the pool. The game is meaningless for them. latvia may actually pull that win out as I don't expect the Swiss to go hard. It'd be unfortunate if that is how it ended.

FTR.. I think Slovakia makes the playoffs over Latvia.

 

[Poiquets]

@PapaQ @Faterson The odds for Slovakia win in regulation at one of the biggest bookmakers in the world are 1.29 at the moment. The return on this market is 94,4%. Therefore the fair odds would be 1,3665. This means an inverted probability of 73,2%.

The odds for Switzerland to win in regulation is 1.44 at the moment. The return on this market is 94,4%. Therefore the fair odds would be 1,52. This means inverted probability of 65,8%.

Now, in order for Slovakia to qualify, both

A) Slovakia must win in regulation,
P ≈ 73,2%

B)Switzerland must win in regulation,
P ≈ 65,8%

Now, both of these must happen, so the probability for Slovakia to qualify is very close to:

0,732*0,658 = 0,482 = 48,2%.



NOTE: The odds of bookmakers are not perfect, but they take in a lot of information and the prices are relatively effective, meaning that the estimated probabilities are more often than not reflecting the true probabilities more accurately than the average person on this forum could imagine.

Having years of experience from the field and having done academic research on it as well, I am rather sure that the probabilities in this case are rather close to a coinflip, although I would say a little bit tilted towards Latvia as the Swiss clinched the 1st spot which can affect their battling and motivation, taking maybe 1-5% points off from their regular time win probabilities.

 

[Poiquets]

Odds on Slovakia scoring a victory against Norway: 1,26
Odds on Latvia scoring a point against Switzerland: 2,45

50/50 The man is a genius of creative accounting.

The man is a genius of talking arrogantly about a topic he obviously knows very little about.

 

[Faterson]

It is highly likely that Slovakia wins vs. Norway. It is unlikely that Latvia gets a point against Switzerland.

I consider the opposite of what you state here to be "(highly) likely".

 

[Faterson]

Now, both of these must happen, so the probability for Slovakia to qualify is very close to:

0,732*0,658 = 0,482 = 48,2%.

That's more like it!

In other words, it's more likely (though only slightly more likely) for Latvia than Slovakia to advance to the play-offs.

Which is exactly what I'm predicting, even though I obviously wish for the result(s) to be different.

I am rather sure that the probabilities in this case are rather close to a coinflip, although I would say a little bit tilted towards Latvia as the Swiss clinched the 1st spot which can affect their battling and motivation, taking maybe 1-5% points off from their regular time win probabilities.

Plus, as mentioned, Slovakia has a looooong history of collapsing in "must-win games" specifically against weaker opponents, so watch out!

There is unrest in Slovak team, captain Hrivík cursing out Hudáček in front of TV cameras, etc. All of that adds up to even more pressure on Slovakia. In contrast, Latvians play at home and the full arena should be their 6th/7th player on the ice.

The man is a genius of talking arrogantly about a topic he obviously knows very little about.

Well, I guess he can afford to talk **** all day long, sitting on a pile of 30 billion dollars as he modestly admitted!

 

[Poiquets]

I agree with your message and good points about the home advantage and interesting to hear about the situation between Hudacek & Hrivik, all of these factors play a role in the team’s mood, focus and willingness to give 110% on the ice, and thus affect probabilities of winning a match.

Well, I guess he can afford to talk **** all day long, sitting on a pile of 30 billion dollars as he modestly admitted!

However, the notion about talking arrogantly about a topic that they know little about and mocking someone who knows what they are talking about (@Namejs ) was pointed towards @SoundAndFury