Prospect Info: Simon Nemec - part II

[forceten]

Can Nemec get to 60 games this year? I think he can? If he can and his numbers are stellar, he can be in the discussion. But it's likely Bedard's to lose just due to the hype if nothing else, although his fractured jaw wll take him out of a bunch of games too.

 

[Guadana]

Can Nemec get to 60 games this year? I think he can? If he can and his numbers are stellar, he can be in the discussion. But it's likely Bedard's to lose just due to the hype if nothing else, although his fractured jaw wll take him out of a bunch of games too.

Luke is ahead of him with more games and PP role. If Nemec will win PP1 spot than he has some chances, but I dont believe he will - Luke is too good PP player. And 53 points without 1PP time in unreal for Nemec in 50 games he has. Even if he will hit 40-45 points mark without pp1 - its a huge achievement for him. But he will not win Calder with 40-45, even he will deserve it more. 21 games are very important in Calder race in a year of Bedard, Luke and Fantilli. It looks like very deserving Faber will not win Calder even if Bedard will loose a lot of time and points.

Sorry I thought you wrote about 60 points, but you wrote about 60 games. Anyway overall opinion stays the same. If its not about points, they will prefer Faber(and there is a reason) because he is playing even bigger role. And have more games.

 

[PKs Broken Stick]

Can Nemec get to 60 games this year? I think he can? If he can and his numbers are stellar, he can be in the discussion. But it's likely Bedard's to lose just due to the hype if nothing else, although his fractured jaw wll take him out of a bunch of games too.

Bedard is 100% winning the Calder, unless he misses rest of the season or close to that amount.

I'm not sure if you were actually talking about the Calder. I can't see who you were responding to (if you were).

 

[StevenToddIves]

Can Nemec get to 60 games this year? I think he can? If he can and his numbers are stellar, he can be in the discussion. But it's likely Bedard's to lose just due to the hype if nothing else, although his fractured jaw wll take him out of a bunch of games too.

To me Brock Faber is the rookie of the year, hands down, even including Bedard thus far.

 

[My3Sons]

To me Brock Faber is the rookie of the year, hands down, even including Bedard thus far.

If Nemec had started the season with NJ I’m thinking he’d have been in the conversation too.

 

[StevenToddIves]

If Nemec had started the season with NJ I’m thinking he’d have been in the conversation too.

Faber has been the 2nd best player on Minnesota this year after only Kaprizov. He's their clear-cut best defenseman. As good as Luke and Nemec have been, I think anyone who watches Minnesota significantly would agree that without Faber, Minnesota is in the lottery convo with San Jose and Chicago right now.

My Calder top 3 right now would be Faber, followed by Bedard, followed by Luke Hughes. But again, there's an entire half-season left to go.

 

[vlady]

So what does this guy have to do to get a chance on PP1? He is outpacing Luke in even strength scoring and the Devils PP has been pretty bad lately. Not to mention last night when Luke made 3 bad giveaways on the PP while Nemo had a goal disallowed and almost scored on a coast to coast rush.

Not trying to bash Luke here, but maybe it's time for a change.

 

[AfroThunder396]

I think a lot of people assumed that Luke was further ahead in his development because he was drafted a year earlier and played NHL games last season. But the reality is that Luke was born in September 2003 and Nemec was born February 2004 (he turns 20 this Thursday). So, Luke is only 5 months older. He's closer to age in Nemec than he is to other defensemen from his own draft class like Owen Power (November 2002), Simon Edvinsson (Feb 2003), and Brandt Clarke (Feb 2003).

Nemec was also playing pro games for way longer. Michigan is a nice program, but the quality of competition is nowhere close to the AHL. It makes sense that Nemec seems a bit more polished.

 

[Billdo]

Nemec>Luke

 

[TrufleShufle]

Nemec>Luke

Don't do that.

Luke is going to be a star, he just needs to go through what Jack went through. He needs to get humbled a bunch to figure out what dazzling dekes and moves no longer work at this level. Once he finds the right tools for the job he will be a serious threat, obviously with the occasional over confident gaffe, just like Jack, but largely making plays happen out of nothing.

Nemac seems like a rock, plays a sound game and doesn't risk too much while knowing where to pick his spots. He's rarely going to do some insane back hand dispy doodle to make his opponent look like a drunk beer leaguer, but will also rarely look like a toddler on his driveway after watching some hockey tik tok highlights and screwing it up.

We will need both these players, the rock and the wild card, no need to decide who is better, we already have both.

 

[JimEIV]

Luke's game is further ahead. All around further ahead of Nemec. His reads are quicker and he sees the ice better, his possession numbers are through the roof, his positioning is better, and his overall play is more refined...he's been playing 21 minutes a night for 51 games, that's more than he's ever played

People are seeing Luke hit a wall now at 50+ games, and comparing Luke's current slowdown to Nemec's current 30 games. People were calling Luke the best Dman on the team when he was around the 30 game mark too.

I'm not trying to take anything away from Nemec, his performance has been very good for a 19 year old. It just seems he has become a more of the flavor of the day due to Luke's more recent sloppy play that was inevitably coming late in the year after a heavy workload.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Luke's game is further ahead. All around further ahead of Nemec. His reads are quicker and he sees the ice better, his possession numbers are through the roof, his positioning is better, and his overall play is more refined...he's been playing 21 minutes a night for 51 games, that's more than he's ever played

People are seeing Luke hit a wall now at 50+ games, and comparing Luke's current slowdown to Nemec's current 30 games. People were calling Luke the best Dman on the team when he was around the 30 game mark too.

I'm not trying to take anything away from Nemec, his performance has been very good for a 19 year old. It's just seems he has become a more of the flavor of the day due to Luke's more recent sloppy play that was inevitably coming late in the year after a heavy workload.

They’re both having great rookie years, but I think Nemec is currently the better player. I wouldn’t be surprised if Luke ends up as a top 10 dman in the league and the same can be said of Nemec.

The big separation in a quick look at the stats: Nemec 1.27 pts/60 at 5 on 5 to Luke’s 0.64. And 4.5 blocks/60 to Luke’s 2. The underlying numbers are fairly similar but I think Nemec’s 5 on 5 assignment is tougher.

 

[Hockey Sports Fan]

#1 in our hearts but [null] in the record books. Wish there was a clip of his disallowed goal.

 

[JimEIV]

They’re both having great rookie years, but I think Nemec is currently the better player. I wouldn’t be surprised if Luke ends up as a top 10 dman in the league and the same can be said of Nemec.

The big separation in a quick look at the stats: Nemec 1.27 pts/60 at 5 on 5 to Luke’s 0.64. And 4.5 blocks/60 to Luke’s 2. The underlying numbers are fairly similar but I think Nemec’s 5 on 5 assignment is tougher.

Just so we are talking about the same thing...I think the "better player" is different conversation than further ahead in development.

I'm not sure what underlying numbers you are looking at?

But Luke's 56.3 CF% and 5.3 Relative blows the doors off of Nemec 51.3 and 1.1 Relative

Luke Hughes Corsi For is leading the team by huge margin.... Luke 949 events For and the next closest is Bratt at 872.

Nemec For and Against combined are 1049 events .. Luke has 949 events For....those two sets of numbers aren't similar in the least bit.

 

[Call Me Al]

man if nemec just went to his backhand there it would have been one of the prettiest goals ever scored by someone in a devils uniform. it was there for him

 

[Billdo]

The fact that we'll have both of them for a decade is INSANE to me.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Just so we are talking about the same thing...I think the "better player" is different conversation than further ahead in development.

I'm not sure what underlying numbers you are looking at?

But Luke's 56.3 CF% and 5.3 Relative blows the doors off of Nemec 51.3 and 1.1 Relative

Luke Hughes Corsi For is leading the team by huge margin.... Luke 949 events For and the next closest is Bratt at 872.

Nemec For and Against combined are 1049 events .. Luke has 949 events For....those two sets of numbers aren't similar in the least bit.

Very similar, yes. Luke per 60: 2.99 xGF 2.53 xGA. Nemec: 3.09 xGF 2.53 xGA. Luke gives up less shot attempts in easier minutes.

 

[forceten]

Luke is definitely ahead in his development, playing extremely challenging minutes (arguably is the 1st pair now and has been), and I think has, overall, a better toolset.

But I'm arguing over the shape of diamonds here.

 

[JimEIV]

Luke is definitely ahead in his development, playing extremely challenging minutes (arguably is the 1st pair now and has been), and I think has, overall, a better toolset.

But I'm arguing over the shape of diamonds here.

I agree but it kind of sucks that we have to qualify every statement as to not get people's panties in a bunch.

 

[Call Me Al]

Luke is definitely ahead in his development, playing extremely challenging minutes (arguably is the 1st pair now and has been), and I think has, overall, a better toolset.

But I'm arguing over the shape of diamonds here.

if you mean physical tool set then maybe, but i’d argue nemec is a much smarter player and his hockey iq is what makes him such a good d man.

luke has a lot of figuring it out to do and he puts himself in a lot of risky/dangerous situations - both in regards to puck management and his physical well being. i could see nemec hitting his peak sooner and staying for longer but when luke figures it out the sky is the limit

 

[Nubmer6]

I agree but it kind of sucks that we have to qualify every statement as to not get people's panties in a bunch.

What if I'm not wearing panties?

 

[JimEIV]

What if I'm not wearing panties?

Then we can be friends.

 

[Call Me Al]

i also don’t like comparing them because they aren’t the same type of player, and could be very complimentary. either we are going to have the best d pairing in the nhl or we are going to have 1a and 1b pairs and im happy with either

 

[Clam Jensen]

Walking a super solid defensive d like eagle is crazy impressive. I’m just tickled pink we get to root for Nemo and Luke.

 

[Triumph]

They’re both having great rookie years, but I think Nemec is currently the better player. I wouldn’t be surprised if Luke ends up as a top 10 dman in the league and the same can be said of Nemec.

The big separation in a quick look at the stats: Nemec 1.27 pts/60 at 5 on 5 to Luke’s 0.64. And 4.5 blocks/60 to Luke’s 2. The underlying numbers are fairly similar but I think Nemec’s 5 on 5 assignment is tougher.

These seem to be two different things - defense points are even more luck-based than forwards and the Devils have been outshot more often since Nemec has come aboard. I do think he likely blocks more shots on balance.