I agree with you we are a bubble team, which is better than I thought three months ago, but I am humble enough to recognize it is possible I am still wrong to some degree.
It's possible that Matthews or Kucherov or Ovechkin get snakebit against us, but if they even get to the point where they make the playoffs before they win a round, it means the team is better than you or I think right now. I bet you think that from here to the end of the season, Boston, Buffalo, Toronto and Tampa Bay are all ahead of us, and that there will be at least four teams from the Atlantic that beat us out. So if you (and I) are wrong about that, then the players might be better than we think.
Why should we be shocked? It's not that crazy. Drouin was a #3 pick, and I bet if he works out you will say "you see, elite talent comes at the top....". Well, we have him. Domi was a #12 pick who dominated his peers at the WJC and could have gone higher if not for his size and diabetes. And it took a former #3 to get him. Kotkaniemi is a #3 as well. Price was a #5, and Weber is an 8 time top-10 Norris candidate. Also within the leadership group, the feisty Gallagher is on pace to be a 30 goal scorer for the second straight year, and Byron is on pace to score 20 for the third straight time. Tatar looks like a 25/50 player and is only 28. Juulsen, Danault and Armia were also first rounders and not slugs. Petry, Lehkonen and Tatar were second rounders.
The roster is not as bad as we thought this past summer, and it may be better than we even think now. The weakest link, the defence, has been transformed with the return of Weber, giving us 45-48 minutes per game with either him or Petry on the ice.
Whatever happens this season, so long as they don't sacrifice futures for a mirage, the team should get better if managed properly. They just need to avoid the blunders the Sens made, and even then the biggest problem might have been a career altering injury to their super-elite player.