Player Discussion Shea Weber Part II

Discussion in 'Montreal Canadiens' started by montreal, Oct 23, 2018.

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  1. Kriss E

    Kriss E Registered User

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    In a clear sarcastic tone. Didn't you just say how this is a discussion board...so you want to play this sarcastic game or actually share your thoughts?
     
  2. Agalloch

    Agalloch EliteProspects

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    Obviously, the team is better with Weber in the lineup. Canadiens are allowing less shots per game and shooting a lot more. The 2 loses, especially the one against Hurricanes was due to a goalie playing over his head and 2-3 posts.

    If the Canadiens can stay healthy, playoffs is possible without a doubt.
     
  3. Kriss E

    Kriss E Registered User

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    How about we see how the Habs fare off versus stronger competition than tanking teams.
    Of course we are better with Weber, that wasn't the discussion point. I was referring to our defense actually now being “pretty good”.
    I dont think we are.
     
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  4. WhiskeySeven*

    WhiskeySeven* Expect the expected

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    What does it mean "playoffs are possible, without a doubt"? Every single team is a playoff possible team. That's NHL parity.

    And to qualify it with "if the Habs stay healthy"! Lol
     
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  5. Scriptor

    Scriptor Registered User

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    MON has won against better opposition earlier in the year, but, as always with them, it only counts the next time that they face better opposition.

    There's always an excuse for them doing well until we can point irrefutably to them sucking again.

    I guess 'they suck' would always be the right answer.
     
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  6. Kriss E

    Kriss E Registered User

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    It's not an excuse, it's a fact. But I guess some facts are just annoying to hear. They also won versus good teams earlier, yes, that's another fact, one that was never denied.
    But I was responding to our record with Weber back and the claims of how our defense is now ''pretty good'' because we just best the Sens back to back.
     
  7. SirClintonPortis

    SirClintonPortis ProudCapitalsTraitor

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    Sens have the worst defense in the league by far. It would be unusual to NOT score more that 4 against them.
     
  8. BaseballCoach

    BaseballCoach Registered User

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    I think people are making this comment because it is five straight games that the team gives up less than 30 shots while registering more than 40.

    I don't think it is ONLY because of Weber. The coaches were bending the players' ears over paying more attention to defensive details for several weeks now. However, it seems like the return of Weber sparked overall better attention to defence, as maybe the players felt, subconsciously or not, that the effort would pay off.

    Is the defence "pretty good"? Better than before Weber returned, for sure, that's all I can say. His return allows us to have either Weber or Petry on the ice for 45+ minutes per game. With the rest of the D being focused in right now, and scared of internal competition, and with the help of the forwards who are now on the same page as the coaches, it makes for decent team defence.
     
  9. bsl

    bsl Registered User

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    Having seen 6 Habs cups old while enough to understand them, I somehow doubt I'll be doing cartwheels after a round 2 loss and an 18th overall pick by Timmins. Might want to raise the bar a bit there baseball coach.
     
  10. BaseballCoach

    BaseballCoach Registered User

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    The difference in draft calibre between an 18th overall pick and an 8th overall pick is not enough to have me do cartwheels if we have another collapsed season where the players we added this year turn out to be duds.

    A second round loss is a great result if the team is trending upward. Given that Kotkaniemi is likely to get a LOT better, and we have the equivalent of THREE first rounders joining the pros next year (unless we luck out and get a fourth because the 2019 pick makes the team out of camp, not likely), and given that we are one of the younger teams in the league, why would we think that regression is more likely than progression?
     
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  11. Kriss E

    Kriss E Registered User

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    Its funny how you are always looking at the best possible outcome when speaking of making the POs but when commenting on getting a top end talent via tank, you have opposite attitude.
    The difference in talent between a top 5 vs late-mid can be huge.
     
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  12. Lshap

    Lshap Hardline Moderate

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    I agree with you here. Top-5 is, by far, the best bet for finding elite talent. Problem is the Habs aren't going to pick top-5. The team isn't built for it anymore than it's built to be a contender. Both extremes -- contender and lottery pick -- simply don't match the roster. The only way to enter top-6 to 10 territory is to trade up for a pick. Top-5 is all but impossible, because I doubt any team is giving up that pick, no matter what.
     
  13. ECWHSWI

    ECWHSWI bought a MB jersey

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    long live mediocrity!
     
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  14. Kriss E

    Kriss E Registered User

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    Yes, and that is exactly where we dont want to be. The perpetual state of good but not good enough.
    Trading Weber to Buffalo for the Blues 1st pick is what I would do (if not protected).
     
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  15. BaseballCoach

    BaseballCoach Registered User

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    You misunderstand my view on getting to the second round. I DO NOT find it likely at all because like you, I think our roster is not strong enough. But in the event I am wrong, and the team is good enough to make the playoffs and win a round, then the club would have PROVEN to be better than you and I thought. For us to get to the second round takes more than a lucky game or three. It would mean that Domi stays at PPG or that Lehkonen probably reaches 20 goals (the most likely guy to replace Domi's expected cool-down), Reilly is consistently very good (that alone might be the player you are hoping to draft high), Juulsen bumps Benn or Schlemko out of the starting lineup (in which case he should be able to do even more next year), Weber continues to make a big mark as a true 1D (in which case he should do the same or close to it next year), Price keeps us in most games (in which case he is not unhealthy as I thought).

    Kriss, if six or seven guys on our roster are better than we thought, chances are most of them will be better than we thought they would be next year.

    If as is more likely, the roster is not that good, then we will probably not make the playoffs and draft higher. You see, I am not PREDICTING we finish top-8, I'm just saying that if we do, it means we under-estimated the team, and revised expectations should carry to next year and beyond.
     
    Last edited: Dec 9, 2018
  16. BaseballCoach

    BaseballCoach Registered User

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    Why do you say that? If our very young squad makes the playoffs and wins a round this year, it means they are not mediocre!! They're young, have a franchise C in development and the equivalent of 3 first rounders turning pro next year (and possibly 4).
     
  17. DAChampion

    DAChampion Registered User

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    Half the teams in the league make the playoffs, it's not an incredible achievement to strive for.

    The genuine goal should be to build a long-term and credible contender, and that requires elite talent.
     
  18. BaseballCoach

    BaseballCoach Registered User

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    RAISE the bar??? Are you serious????

    To get the result you just spit on, the Habs would have to win a lot more than they lose for the rest of the year, and then they would have beaten either Tampa Bay, Toronto or the Atlantic Champion, with home ice DISADVANTAGE.

    Think again, why would you not be doing cartwheels if the Habs beat one of those three great teams with a young, up and coming roster??
     
  19. BaseballCoach

    BaseballCoach Registered User

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    Yes, either elite talent, or a ton of near-elite talent, not just one 60 point guy. AGREED.

    Now, suppose you, DAChamp, are the GM. You just beat either Tampa Bay, Toronto or the Capitals in the playoffs starting on the road for the first two games. You have Kotkaniemi, a developing elite player. You have two long-time elite players who are still playing near-elite in Price and Weber. You have a 23 year old 2C who put up 70+points. You have THREE first-round or equivalent picks joining the pros next year, maybe 4. You also have $11M in cap space and all the flexibility that can provide, especially since there is no one to sign in the summer of 2019 or 2020 who will break the bank.

    I have absolute confidence in you to improve the team further and get to the final four or the Cup final within 1-2 more years.
     
    Last edited: Dec 9, 2018
  20. DAChampion

    DAChampion Registered User

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    On the one hand, let us acknowledge that this is a good base.

    On the other hand:
    1) You're overrating Price.
    2) Kotkaniemi is not a sure thing to become elite. It's not clear of he'll end up a 65-point or 80-point centre.
    3) Poehling, Suzuki, and Brook will unfortunately not be left to dominate the AHL next year. They are likely to be rushed as Bergevin likes rushing prospects.
    4) Cap space is great. There are three great options next year: Duchene, Karlsson, and Panarin. Though, they won't try and get Panarin as he is Russian, and that's too bad.
    5) They're likely losing one of Weber, Petry, Juulsen, Mete to expansion in a year.
    6) Beating Toronto in the first round is a best case scenario.
    7) Adding Jack Hughes would improve the roster.

    Here's a plausible alternative:

    Trade Petry for viable futures rather than lose him in the expansion, finish just out of the playoffs and get a respectable top-15 pick, sign one of Karlsson, Panarin, or Duchene with all that cap space, and let Brook, Poehling, and Suzuki start next season in Laval. Begin competing in 2021.
     
  21. Habs Icing

    Habs Icing Formerly Onice

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    I know that sounds like a concrete and definite requirement for you but for me it's a vague and indeterminate statement.
    1) what do you mean by elite talent?
    2) how many elite talents would it require? One, two, three, seven, fifteen?

    You'll find most NHL teams have elite talent. Buffalo has Dahlin, Skinner and Eichel, LA has Quick and Kopitar, Chicago has Toews and Kane, Oilers have McDavid & Draisaitl, Pittsburgh has Crosby, Kessel and Malkin. Are they contenders?

    Once you answer those questions go over the roster of the last 10 Cup winning teams and point out to me the elite talent on those teams. You'll find most of them don't have more than two or three elite talents. Four tops.

    Maybe it's not just a question of elite talents? Maybe it's also where those talents are in their career arcs. Maybe it's also the quality of the surrounding cast of players. Maybe it's peaking at the right time, the right coaching.

    Right now the Habs have Weber and Price as elite talents. If Domi and Drouin continue to play as they have we could consider them as elite. That's four. I don't think the Habs have shown themselves to be contenders. But it's not because of a lack of elite talents. It's because Schlemko, Rielly, DesLauriers and Hudon have too many bad nights. It's because Mete, Kotkaniemi and Juulsen have not reached their peak yet. The Habs are not contenders because the second and third tier players on the team are playing like 2nd and 3rd tier players and have not raised their level of play.
     
    Last edited: Dec 10, 2018
  22. BaseballCoach

    BaseballCoach Registered User

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    1. I am not over-rating Price. I'm stating that if we finish strong and win a round, then Price will have proven himself. Very different thing!
    2. If Kotkaniemi at #3 is not a sure elite player, then very plausibly neither will be the next guy we pick top 5 or top 10.
    3. It is likely that at least two of the three top Junior/College prospects makes a mark next year or the year after. Probably Suzuki is first to make it as a sniping winger, Brook having the greatest long-term ceiling.
    4. Cap space can be used in many ways. You'll find several of them.
    5. Who cares, every team we will be competing with also loses one player, except Vegas. Manage that situation when it is at hand, to lose the player with the worst production to cap ratio.
    6. Beating Toronto probably means we finished third and beat out both Boston and Buffalo in the RS. Start believing in your team!
    7. Sure, and McDavid improved the Oilers, TO A POINT. But if the Oilers were already a YOUNG final-8 team and drafted Barzal or Connor or Chabot instead, they would be way ahead today and for years. Besides it's virtually impossible to get Jack Hughes.
     
  23. ECWHSWI

    ECWHSWI bought a MB jersey

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    I hope that's not a serious question...

    Toews, Kane, Malkin and Crosby have 3 cup rings each, Kessel, Kopitar and Quick have 2.
     
  24. BaseballCoach

    BaseballCoach Registered User

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    No way does Bergevin bring in three new guys at once if his team wins a playoff round this year with an obviously strong team.

    Now, if Brook looks like Rasmus Dahlin he might make the team and allow us to trade Petry for a LD.

    If Suzuki is better than several of our pretty good wingers , then he might make it off the bat, like other 20 year olds have.

    I do not see any realistic chance that Poehling starts in Montreal instead of Laval, and even if he does, buthe struggles, he will be in Laval in two flashes.
     
  25. BaseballCoach

    BaseballCoach Registered User

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    That was not #HabsIcing's question. Are LA or Chicago contenders today?
     
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