Recalled/Assigned: Sharks roster moves 2019-20: 3/7 Knyzhov and DeSimone recalled

TomasHertlsRooster

Don’t say eye test when you mean points
May 14, 2012
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If the team has better team defense then they spend less time in the defensive zone. If they spend less time in the defensive zone, then they spend more time in the offensive zone. More time in the offensive zone leads to less goals against AND more goals scored.

If the team has leave average goaltending then they are able to take more risks because they trust the goalie to stop shots from far out. If they take more risks then that leads to more scoring chances. More scoring chances leads to more goals.

This is just extremely wishful thinking on all parts. You could just as easily make the counter-argument that in order to tighten up defensively, the team would need to tighten up, and sacrifice a little more of their already pathetic offense. Neither argument is really substantiated in any way.

Again, this team is clearly not one or two pieces away. They're one of the worst teams in the NHL. Just look at their top players. Both Burns and Vlasic have fallen off a cliff, and they're each going on their 2nd season out of the past 3 where their even strength impact has been near the bottom of the league. Kane's strong performance on the power play this season has distracted everybody from the fact that he's been largely mediocre at 5-on-5, where Barclay Goodrow and Patrick Marleau have both equaled him in primary assists and passed him in goals. Couture's strong performance in the playoffs last year has distracted everybody from his mediocre play in the past two regular seasons. These are supposed to be the leaders of the team, they're being paid like elite players, and they all range somewhere between mediocre and bad this season.

Even our good players who are still having good seasons, like Meier and Karlsson, are playing well below the standard that they set for themselves in the past, and well below the level they need to play at if this team wants to win. Hertl was playing excellent before his injury, but most good teams have at least one player who is clearly better than Hertl.

And this is only looking at the top-6 forwards on the team. Honestly, when comparing them to a league average forward group, I'm not sure if it's the top-6 or the bottom-6 that stands out more. Our bottom-6 has been filled with absolutely atrocious players like Sorensen, Melker, and a revolving door of rookies and journeymen who are all below replacement level. We claimed Stefan Noesen off waivers - which essentially makes him a replacement level player - and while he's absolutely nothing special, the difference between he and the rest of our bottom-6 has been night and day, which tells you just how terrible they are.

In order to look at this roster and convince yourself that they're a few tweaks away, you have to do some major mental gymnastics. If you want to convince yourself that Burns and Vlasic suddenly wouldn't be replacement level if we had a good goalie in net, and ignore that we have had a good goalie in net for the 26 games that Dell has started and they have still sucked, go ahead. If you want to ignore the extensive research that shows that NHL players tend to peak around the ages of 22-26, and that our top paid players are mostly past that peak age and due for inflection points in their aging curve, go ahead.

Bottom line, this is not a small leak. We are not looking at one or two holes that can be patched up with a new coach, or a new goalie. This team is f***ing trash and they will be lucky to be a playoff team with this core.
 
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sharks_dynasty

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Oct 25, 2006
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This is just extremely wishful thinking on all parts. You could just as easily make the counter-argument that in order to tighten up defensively, the team would need to tighten up, and sacrifice a little more of their already pathetic offense. Neither argument is really substantiated in any way.

Again, this team is clearly not one or two pieces away. They're one of the worst teams in the NHL. Just look at their top players. Both Burns and Vlasic have fallen off a cliff, and they're each going on their 2nd season out of the past 3 where their even strength impact has been near the bottom of the league. Kane's strong performance on the power play this season has distracted everybody from the fact that he's been largely mediocre at 5-on-5, where Barclay Goodrow and Patrick Marleau have both equaled him in primary assists and passed him in goals. Couture's strong performance in the playoffs last year has distracted everybody from his mediocre play in the past two regular seasons. These are supposed to be the leaders of the team, they're being paid like elite players, and they all range somewhere between mediocre and bad this season.

Even our good players who are still having good seasons, like Meier and Karlsson, are playing well below the standard that they set for themselves in the past, and well below the level they need to play at if this team wants to win. Hertl was playing excellent before his injury, but most good teams have at least one player who is clearly better than Hertl.

And this is only looking at the top-6 forwards on the team. Honestly, when comparing them to a league average forward group, I'm not sure if it's the top-6 or the bottom-6 that stands out more. Our bottom-6 has been filled with absolutely atrocious players like Sorensen, Melker, and a revolving door of rookies and journeymen who are all below replacement level. We claimed Stefan Noesen off waivers - which essentially makes him a replacement level player - and while he's absolutely nothing special, the difference between he and the rest of our bottom-6 has been night and day, which tells you just how terrible they are.

In order to look at this roster and convince yourself that they're a few tweaks away, you have to do some major mental gymnastics. If you want to convince yourself that Burns and Vlasic suddenly wouldn't be replacement level if we had a good goalie in net, and ignore that we have had a good goalie in net for the 26 games that Dell has started and they have still sucked, go ahead. If you want to ignore the extensive research that shows that NHL players tend to peak around the ages of 22-26, and that our top paid players are mostly past that peak age and due for inflection points in their aging curve, go ahead.

Bottom line, this is not a small leak. We are not looking at one or two holes that can be patched up with a new coach, or a new goalie. This team is ****ing trash and they will be lucky to be a playoff team with this core.

Wow, this is a glum post. When teams collectively suck, all stats go down for the individuals on the team. This is for the most part the same team that went to the conference finals last year, except this year they were not playing great defense, had sub-par goaltending and they lost some quality forwards that they were not able to successfully replace. I do attribute coaching as a cause because I see a big difference in how the team is playing now versus earlier in the season. Team defense is also better and so is goaltending. If we had more offense, I believe we would be significantly better and expect this to be solved before next season. Will we be contenders? I don’t know, but we aren’t going to be bottom dwellers like the Senators, that’s for sure. I’m positive we will be a playoff team again next season.
 

TomasHertlsRooster

Don’t say eye test when you mean points
May 14, 2012
33,360
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Fremont, CA
Wow, this is a glum post. When teams collectively suck, all stats go down for the individuals on the team. This is for the most part the same team that went to the conference finals last year, except this year they were not playing great defense, had sub-par goaltending and they lost some quality forwards that they were not able to successfully replace. I do attribute coaching as a cause because I see a big difference in how the team is playing now versus earlier in the season. Team defense is also better and so is goaltending. If we had more offense, I believe we would be significantly better and expect this to be solved before next season. Will we be contenders? I don’t know, but we aren’t going to be bottom dwellers like the Senators, that’s for sure. I’m positive we will be a playoff team again next season.

It's not glum, it's realistic.

This is not the same team that went to the Conference Finals last year. They lost Donskoi, Nyquist, Pavelski, and Braun. That's 3 top-6 forwards and a top-4 defenseman. That completely throws off the entire makeup of a team. In addition to players that they literally lost, a lot of other players are shells of the players that they were last year. Burns, Kane, and Karlsson are all playing much worse than they were last year, and given their ages, it's more likely that we see more of the same going forward than it is that they revert to their old levels of performance.

I'm also not buying that the team dropping off is a reason for individual players posting poor stats. When I posted Kane's 5-on-5 primary scoring, notice that I didn't even post Kane's numbers themselves; I only showed that he has been out-scored (in goals) and tied in primary assists by Goodrow and Marleau. His teammates, who are bottom-6 players playing above their heads. In addition to the aforementioned Goodrow and Marleau, Noesen, Hertl, Labanc, and Dell are also all having better seasons than they did last year. Ferraro has walked into the NHL and been passable. Vlasic was equally terrible last year on a good team and Couture was equally mediocre, so I'm not buying that the team had anything to do with their drop off either. Really, it's just a lame excuse.

You can blame coaching, and I agree that they have been better under Boughner, and there is evidence to support that. But, this team has had league average goaltending. (Dell above average and Jones below average, they almost exactly cancel each other out.) And you know what they still are? 7th from last in points percentage and 7th from last in goal differential since Boughner took over.

It's funny that you mention the Senators because the Senators had a fluke run to the conference finals and then fell off a cliff the following season as well.
 
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tealzamboni

Registered User
Mar 3, 2007
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Wow, this is a glum post. When teams collectively suck, all stats go down for the individuals on the team. This is for the most part the same team that went to the conference finals last year, except this year they were not playing great defense, had sub-par goaltending and they lost some quality forwards that they were not able to successfully replace. I do attribute coaching as a cause because I see a big difference in how the team is playing now versus earlier in the season. Team defense is also better and so is goaltending. If we had more offense, I believe we would be significantly better and expect this to be solved before next season. Will we be contenders? I don’t know, but we aren’t going to be bottom dwellers like the Senators, that’s for sure. I’m positive we will be a playoff team again next season.

I think another big factor is that the team is transitioning from being built for Thornton to being built for Karlsson. Last season, they had some good streaks/breaks, which sort of masked some of the growing/transition pains. This season, it's been on full display as the team isn't strong enough to play a dominating possession game, nor quick/skilled enough to capably go coast to coast with Karlsson.

IMO it is possible that a quick fix or two pushes the roster in the right direction. But still, I assume it'll take some time to reshape the roster.
 
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OrrNumber4

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Jul 25, 2002
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It's not glum, it's realistic.

This is not the same team that went to the Conference Finals last year. They lost Donskoi, Nyquist, Pavelski, and Braun. That's 3 top-6 forwards and a top-4 defenseman. That completely throws off the entire makeup of a team. In addition to players that they literally lost, a lot of other players are shells of the players that they were last year. Burns, Kane, and Karlsson are all playing much worse than they were last year, and given their ages, it's more likely that we see more of the same going forward than it is that they revert to their old levels of performance.

I'm also not buying that the team dropping off is a reason for individual players posting poor stats. When I posted Kane's 5-on-5 primary scoring, notice that I didn't even post Kane's numbers themselves; I only showed that he has been out-scored (in goals) and tied in primary assists by Goodrow and Marleau. His teammates, who are bottom-6 players playing above their heads. In addition to the aforementioned Goodrow and Marleau, Noesen, Hertl, Labanc, and Dell are also all having better seasons than they did last year. Ferraro has walked into the NHL and been passable. Vlasic was equally terrible last year on a good team and Couture was equally mediocre, so I'm not buying that the team had anything to do with their drop off either. Really, it's just a lame excuse.

You can blame coaching, and I agree that they have been better under Boughner, and there is evidence to support that. But, this team has had league average goaltending. (Dell above average and Jones below average, they almost exactly cancel each other out.) And you know what they still are? 7th from last in points percentage and 7th from last in goal differential since Boughner took over.

It's funny that you mention the Senators because the Senators had a fluke run to the conference finals and then fell off a cliff the following season as well.

It is a stretch to call Braun top-4 and Donskoi top-6. Is Kane playing "much worse" than last year?

Saying Dell and Jones balance each other out is like saying Dell scored above average at 55 and Jones scored below average at 5, so they cancel out to average (50).

I don't think the Sharks's run last year was at all flukey...I'm not even sure the Senators's run qualifies as Karlsson was a beast during those playoffs.
 

Pavelski2112

Bold as Boognish
Dec 15, 2011
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San Jose, California
It is a stretch to call Braun top-4 and Donskoi top-6. Is Kane playing "much worse" than last year?

Saying Dell and Jones balance each other out is like saying Dell scored above average at 55 and Jones scored below average at 5, so they cancel out to average (50).

I don't think the Sharks's run last year was at all flukey...I'm not even sure the Senators's run qualifies as Karlsson was a beast during those playoffs.

Yea, Braun was flat out bad last year. Donskoi would've been a definite top-6er if he had any consistency. Kane's on pace for as many goals as well.

Last year you could make an argument for fluke things happening, but that was probably the deepest team top-to-bottom in Sharks history. It's just that the whole thing fell apart like the car at the end of The Blues Brothers.
 
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Doctor Soraluce

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Sep 28, 2017
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Yea, Braun was flat out bad last year. Donskoi would've been a definite top-6er if he had any consistency. Kane's on pace for as many goals as well.

Last year you could make an argument for fluke things happening, but that was probably the deepest team top-to-bottom in Sharks history. It's just that the whole thing fell apart like the car at the end of The Blues Brothers.
No doubt. Also I think the reality of the butterfly effect a true top 6 winger added to this lineup could have done for this team offensively. Does it cure everything? Probably not with how PDB was coaching or at least how the team played under his coaching. The new player immediately moves someone in the top 6 to the bottom 6. The other players on the new players line likely increase scoring with newly talented player. The player moved to the bottom 6 faces better matchups and has better chances offensively. Lastly a player is moved out of the lineup that is maybe a liabilty. Overall team play is increased likely both offensively and defensively. How much? impossible to say but it's far more likely than what has been asserted by others here. A simple lookout certain stats saying the records are similar ignores a whole lot of things that have been plainly obvious in how the team has played since the coaching change. Losing the top 2 scoring forwards during BB term as coach and having similar stats and records should be an obvious indicator that the overall team play is better and that PDB as a coach was a major influence on the teams shitty play.
 

OrrNumber4

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Jul 25, 2002
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No doubt. Also I think the reality of the butterfly effect a true top 6 winger added to this lineup could have done for this team offensively. Does it cure everything? Probably not with how PDB was coaching or at least how the team played under his coaching. The new player immediately moves someone in the top 6 to the bottom 6. The other players on the new players line likely increase scoring with newly talented player. The player moved to the bottom 6 faces better matchups and has better chances offensively. Lastly a player is moved out of the lineup that is maybe a liabilty. Overall team play is increased likely both offensively and defensively. How much? impossible to say but it's far more likely than what has been asserted by others here. A simple lookout certain stats saying the records are similar ignores a whole lot of things that have been plainly obvious in how the team has played since the coaching change. Losing the top 2 scoring forwards during BB term as coach and having similar stats and records should be an obvious indicator that the overall team play is better and that PDB as a coach was a major influence on the teams ****ty play.

Over small sample sizes, losing top players can be a boost. Not to mention a new coach tends to give a team an unsustainable boost.
 

OrrNumber4

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Jul 25, 2002
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That's more wishful thinking than my post.

New coach syndrome is a well-documented, and yes, injury to big players can give teams boosts in small sample sizes. Think about Pittsburgh...Crosby and Malkin get injured, they almost always chug along well for fiveish games, and then the wheels start to fall off a bit. It is a combination of the emotional boost, new players seizing a spot and playing their damndest, and coaches relying more on their other top players.
 

STL Shark

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Mar 6, 2013
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1 goal 2 assists in 19 games since December 11th. His seasons all have very similar peaks and valleys.
Starts out on fire, gets banged up because he is super frail, play falls off a cliff. Joonas Donskoi in every season of his NHL career. Just missing shoulder surgery to complete the saga.
 
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TomasHertlsRooster

Don’t say eye test when you mean points
May 14, 2012
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No doubt. Also I think the reality of the butterfly effect a true top 6 winger added to this lineup could have done for this team offensively. Does it cure everything? Probably not with how PDB was coaching or at least how the team played under his coaching. The new player immediately moves someone in the top 6 to the bottom 6. The other players on the new players line likely increase scoring with newly talented player. The player moved to the bottom 6 faces better matchups and has better chances offensively. Lastly a player is moved out of the lineup that is maybe a liabilty. Overall team play is increased likely both offensively and defensively. How much? impossible to say but it's far more likely than what has been asserted by others here. A simple lookout certain stats saying the records are similar ignores a whole lot of things that have been plainly obvious in how the team has played since the coaching change. Losing the top 2 scoring forwards during BB term as coach and having similar stats and records should be an obvious indicator that the overall team play is better and that PDB as a coach was a major influence on the teams ****ty play.

This is all just extremely wishful thinking. This team has a goal differential of -37. No winger who has ever played in the NHL would have pushed us into a playoff spot.

It is a stretch to call Braun top-4 and Donskoi top-6. Is Kane playing "much worse" than last year?

Saying Dell and Jones balance each other out is like saying Dell scored above average at 55 and Jones scored below average at 5, so they cancel out to average (50).

I don't think the Sharks's run last year was at all flukey...I'm not even sure the Senators's run qualifies as Karlsson was a beast during those playoffs.

Braun was used like a standard middle pairing top-4 defenseman although his results were shaky at times. Donskoi was used like a middle-6 forward but his results were solid top-6. Yes, Kane is playing much worse than last year outside of the power play.

Under Boughner, Dell and Jones have basically cancelled each other out by GSAA and GSAx. Dell is about a +5, Jones is about a -5.

Last year's run was quite fortunate even if it was not truly a fluke, and Ottawa's was a major fluke. Ottawa had a negative goal differential in the regular season that year.
 
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Doctor Soraluce

Registered User
Sep 28, 2017
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As far as what JTR said... You're creating a straw man argument. Im pretty sure I didn't say anything about the playoffs in the post you responded to. But still it wouldn't be wishful thinking. It's completely plausible that a true top 6 winger (25 to 30 goals and 25 to 30 assists) would have helped the team win 4 to 5 more games over the course of the last 50 games. That puts them in a tie or better for a playoff spot especially if any of those wins came against teams they are in direct competition with for those wild card spots. That one winger doesn't need to produce 37 additional goals all by him self. Some of that huge number are in blow out losses that still only accounted for a single loss despite contributing a -3 or -4 to the overall differential. They may still not make the playoffs but your assertion carries no more weight than anything else the rest of us have said.

New coach syndrome is a well-documented, and yes, injury to big players can give teams boosts in small sample sizes. Think about Pittsburgh...Crosby and Malkin get injured, they almost always chug along well for fiveish games, and then the wheels start to fall off a bit. It is a combination of the emotional boost, new players seizing a spot and playing their damndest, and coaches relying more on their other top players.
Syndrome... super vague. I would be willing to bet that the over whelming majority of teams that make in season coaching change still suck. Citing on example like the Pens is silly. They have a bunch of prospects that are actually good.
 

hockeyCEO

Registered User
Nov 26, 2016
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My view is that for the last 3+ years, the Sharks have not developed a single top 6 forward. The latest we have are Timo and Lebanc. Wilson is a good GM, but does anyone think we can just trade for a cup team? We haven't had a high first round pick in quite a while.

Burke made a great call on Ferraro. It looks like DW Jr. that made a great call on Merkley. Jury is still on Gambrell. But these are all low 1st or 2nd rounders. We've done well on what picks we had. With a salary cap, we have to have one or two entry level contracts in the top 9.
 
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themelkman

Always Delivers
Apr 26, 2015
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My view is that for the last 3+ years, the Sharks have not developed a single top 6 forward. The latest we have are Timo and Lebanc. Wilson is a good GM, but does anyone think we can just trade for a cup team? We haven't had a high first round pick in quite a while.

Burke made a great call on Ferraro. It looks like DW Jr. that made a great call on Merkley. Jury is still on Gambrell. But these are all low 1st or 2nd rounders. We've done well on what picks we had. With a salary cap, we have to have one or two entry level contracts in the top 9.
Im not all that sure we have anyone with the potential to be a top six forward coming even. The closest are Blichfeld, Dahlen and Chmelevksi, but those guys will be lucky to be 2/3rd tweeners like Labanc I think, rather than true top six guys.
 
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hohosaregood

Banned
Sep 1, 2011
32,400
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One guy I'd like to see play a few games is John Leonard. Still in college but I think he'll probably sign before the season is up. I think he could be a real diamond in the rough for us
 
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