Rumor: Sharks GM Doug Wilson looking desperately to get a first for rebuild mode

[HawkeyTalkMan]

100%. Wilson sent out internal memos explaining that this year would he just like 2015 when the Sharks missed the playoffs. A quick retool. Everyone doubted him then and we made the finals the next year.

This was before big extensions to Jones, karlsson, and vlasic though right? with much of D locked into big money into their late, late 30s? Also at a time pavelski was still scoring 30+ goals and 60+ pts and Thornton was still scoring 50-80 pts a year

I don't know how you can realistically compare then and now and expect anything close to the same optimism

 

[Burke the Legend]

the forward group is not ok. They have 2-3 top 6 forwards on the roster. The D is doing fine other than Burns having a bad year. The goal tending is league worst level.

Forwards (lack of) and Goal are the problems.

That group managed 289 goals last year (2nd best in league) but are on pace for less than 220 this year. So what happened?

 

[fasterthanlight]

Sharks long-term problems official power ranking

1) Martin Jones + contract
[ gap ]
2) Lack of good prospects/picks
3) ME Vlasic + contract
[ large gap ]
4) BB88 3-team or EK65 NMC. Both are fine value now, but having both 33 year old EK65 and 38 year old BB88 in 2023-2024 is not great.
5) Lack of forward depth

I think the strategy here is:

1) to try to move Jones at all costs, or buy him out if you can't do it. He isn't even an AHL level goalie right now, and shows no signs of improving. Maybe he can get an equipment allergy. Obviously expose him to seattle in expansion draft if you can (he probably would waive his NMC because he won't be getting any playing time)
2) if Merkley is developing on-track, listen to offers on BB88 for the next few years, and pull the trigger if the 3-team list works (or Burns waives) and the value is there. Then, Merkeley can step in on the second pairing. If BB88 isn't garnering value, consider exposing him in expansion draft if you can.
3) Get a coach that can maximize EK65's contributions more effectively. DeBoer and BB don't seem to be doing so.
4) Keep your ear to the ground and see if you can move vlasic, even with retention. That being said, 7M/yr isn't that bad with a rising cap
5) Sign a top-6 FWD or two from UFA, e.g., dadonov this year.
6) continue scouting europe hard. sharks have had some success with this, and seem to have a reputation for giving euros a fair shot (donskoi comes to mind, suo has been given a lot of chances, etc.)
7) listen to offers on hertl and meier. accept if the package is a massive overpay.
8) sign decent UFA goalies to 1 or 2 year deals. If you can get to 905 save percentage that's a massive improvement over jones.

 

[fasterthanlight]

That group managed 289 goals last year (2nd best in league) but are on pace for less than 220 this year. So what happened?

We lost an entire second line and replaced them with nobody (Nyquist, Pavelski, Donskoi). GM thought that at least two prospects (Chmelevski, Suomela, True, Gambrell, Blichfeld, Chekhovich, or Letunov) could step into the top 6, but they are worse than expected.

 

[BlueBaron]

Tough year to get that first, a lot of the usual suspect have already moved theirs and this is a deep draft. Also looking like a buyers market.

 

[fasterthanlight]

Tough year to get that first, a lot of the usual suspect have already moved theirs and this is a deep draft. Also looking like a buyers market.

Is it really a buyer's market? Looks like a lot of teams are on the bubble --- I'd say only 8-10 teams (including the sharks) will definitively be out at the trade deadline.

 

[BlueBaron]

Is it really a buyer's market? Looks like a lot of teams are on the bubble --- I'd say only 8-10 teams (including the sharks) will definitively be out at the trade deadline.

I guess we'll see.

 

[fasterthanlight]

I guess we'll see.

Yeah agreed --- I don't think anyone can know how it will play out.

 

[Kranix]

I don't see how they're in trouble at all. None of their forward contracts are crippling. Lebanc is their only RFA and he won't get a huge raise.
Burns at 8 million 5 years from now isn't really that big a deal.
Ideally I guess you'd want Erik Karlsson age 26 at $11 mil but he's still so good.
They don't have that elite offensive star, but not every team does.

They just need a better goaltender and to retool on the fly. Get a couple cheaper top-6 forwards etc,

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Sharks long-term problems official power ranking

1) Martin Jones + contract
[ gap ]
2) Lack of good prospects/picks
3) ME Vlasic + contract
[ large gap ]
4) BB88 3-team or EK65 NMC. Both are fine value now, but having both 33 year old EK65 and 38 year old BB88 in 2023-2024 is not great.
5) Lack of forward depth

I think the strategy here is:

1) to try to move Jones at all costs, or buy him out if you can't do it. He isn't even an AHL level goalie right now, and shows no signs of improving. Maybe he can get an equipment allergy. Obviously expose him to seattle in expansion draft if you can (he probably would waive his NMC because he won't be getting any playing time)
2) if Merkley is developing on-track, listen to offers on BB88 for the next few years, and pull the trigger if the 3-team list works (or Burns waives) and the value is there. Then, Merkeley can step in on the second pairing. If BB88 isn't garnering value, consider exposing him in expansion draft if you can.
3) Get a coach that can maximize EK65's contributions more effectively. DeBoer and BB don't seem to be doing so.
4) Keep your ear to the ground and see if you can move vlasic, even with retention. That being said, 7M/yr isn't that bad with a rising cap
5) Sign a top-6 FWD or two from UFA, e.g., dadonov this year.
6) continue scouting europe hard. sharks have had some success with this, and seem to have a reputation for giving euros a fair shot (donskoi comes to mind, suo has been given a lot of chances, etc.)
7) listen to offers on hertl and meier. accept if the package is a massive overpay.
8) sign decent UFA goalies to 1 or 2 year deals. If you can get to 905 save percentage that's a massive improvement over jones.

I'm all for moving Jones out at all costs save for buying him out. I'm not a fan of the cap hit associated with him for eight more seasons. I'd rather bury him in the minors and only save 950k while attempting to trade him elsewhere than that. I'd rather eat 4.8 million for four seasons than only slightly less for eight. I would suspect burying him would open up the trade options and make it easier to say give a team Labanc to take him off our hands or some other variant. I would even be open to seeing what it would look like to have Hertl or Meier be on the table to move Jones out depending on what the return would be.

The Merkley thing is not likely to happen within the next couple seasons so that's a wait-and-see thing. Definitely agree with the coaching. Vlasic is likely unmovable for another four years minimum. When it comes to adding forwards, they have to get the middle six forwards at a value level to make them fit. They can't plan on being free of any contract that they have movement clauses associated with. If they manage to free themselves up from it then maybe you can aim higher but you also have to realize that in doing so they will likely have to spend a similar amount on their replacement to be effective.

While getting .905 save percentage is an improvement on Jones now, it's not much of an improvement on Dell now. If that's the case, you have to target areas where the team needs to improve to help the overall team because you can't bank on free agent goalies doing any better. Someone like Bobrovsky is a cautionary tale for the Sharks right now. They need to both get better goaltending and get better forward depth while likely not expecting to get out from any big ticket contract. It's a tough bind to deal with.

 

[Kegsey]

This was before big extensions to Jones, karlsson, and vlasic though right? with much of D locked into big money into their late, late 30s? Also at a time pavelski was still scoring 30+ goals and 60+ pts and Thornton was still scoring 50-80 pts a year

I don't know how you can realistically compare then and now and expect anything close to the same optimism

What I’m comparing is the doubt coming from all these “experts” that said the same thing in 2015. I joined this site in 2011 and since then I’ve been told almost daily how the Sharks window has closed and they wont make the playoffs, so at what point do you say “maybe I just need to see how things play out” when the majority of people on this site have been dead wrong for 9 f***ing years. A blind squirrel will eventually find a nut so I guess credit to HF for being wrong for 8 years but then finally getting it right on the 9th. Jokes.

 

[Sparky93]

Monahan + Bennett for Hertl, Labanc + Dillon

 

[Crazy Joe Divola]

That group managed 289 goals last year (2nd best in league) but are on pace for less than 220 this year. So what happened?

they lost The production of Pavelski, Nyquist and Donskoi and replaced them with their ahl rookies who haven’t picked up any of the slack.

 

[Groo]

Monahan + Bennett for Hertl, Labanc + Dillon

No thanks.

 

[Kegsey]

I don't see how they're in trouble at all. None of their forward contracts are crippling. Lebanc is their only RFA and he won't get a huge raise.
Burns at 8 million 5 years from now isn't really that big a deal.
Ideally I guess you'd want Erik Karlsson age 26 at $11 mil but he's still so good.
They don't have that elite offensive star, but not every team does.

They just need a better goaltender and to retool on the fly. Get a couple cheaper top-6 forwards etc,

Oh no, logic!

 

[Dr Quincy]

So he was supposed to trade Vlasic, Burns or let Karlsson walk after moving a ridiculous amount of assets for him?

Vlasic’s drop off sucks. Wilson built a win now team and couldn’t get away with giving their players back diving contracts like say LA, CHI or PIT.

Win Now teams have 2 strong centers on the team. One should be an upper echelon #1 and the other a #2 who would be a #1 on several teams.

To paraphrase Obama; Wilson didn't build that.

 

[Crazy Joe Divola]

Win Now teams have 2 strong centers on the team. One should be an upper echelon #1 and the other a #2 who would be a #1 on several teams.

To paraphrase Obama; Wilson didn't build that.

Couture and Hertl aren’t strong centers?

 

[pan43]

So this off-season, does Wilson reward Lebanc (whose numbers aren't as good this season as they were last season) with a deal Lebanc deserved at the end of last season?
Sticky situation with the wheels flying off the bus.
Will be interesting to see how it plays out.

Lebanc really messed up. I can envision Wilson giving him what he would have earned last season. It would be dumb to do but i could see him doing it. He probably wont do though and will offer him some sort of middle gtound. Lebanc just learned a big lesson, which is to never take one for the team when no one else it.

 

[SharksFan1]

the forward group is not ok. They have 2-3 top 6 forwards on the roster.

Out of Kane, Couture, Hertl and Meier, which two are not top 6 forwards in this league?

 

[Crazy Joe Divola]

Out of Kane, Couture, Hertl and Meier, which two are not top 6 forwards in this league?

Here was our starting lineup last game:

Kane-Hertl-Blichfeld
Goodrow-Suomela-Marleau
Meier-Thornton-Labanc
Melker-Kellman-Noesen

4 of those top 6 do not belong. Hilariously enough, 40 year old Patty is the closest of those 4 and has actually been decent this year.

 

[General Disarray]

The future is bleak but I don't think it's THAT bad. They have horrible goaltending this year. With average goalie they probably are a bubble team. Again not an ideal spot but they are not a true bottom 5 team.

 

[SharksFan1]

Here was our starting lineup last game:

Kane-Hertl-Blichfeld
Goodrow-Suomela-Marleau
Meier-Thornton-Labanc
Melker-Kellman-Noesen

4 of those top 6 do not belong. Hilariously enough, 40 year old Patty is the closest of those 4 and has actually been decent this year.

Nice job not answering my question.

 

[SharksFan1]

The future is bleak but I don't think it's THAT bad. They have horrible goaltending this year. With average goalie they probably are a bubble team. Again not an ideal spot but they are not a true bottom 5 team.

Not just this year, but they had horrible goaltending last year too, and somehow managed to make the conference finals. I think in the end that really hurt them and resulted in DW not addressing the goalie issue. If they can find even an average goalie, a coach that can figure out a system to fully utilize Burns and Karlsson, I think they will be right back in the playoff hunt.

I think one of the more difficult things is they need to find a coach that can think outside the box and construct a non-standard system to actually utilize Burns and Karlsson fully, and I don't think that is going to be something easy or predictable to find. Laviolette seems like a good choice, but I'm far from being a expert on coaches.

 

[Crazy Joe Divola]

Nice job not answering my question.

meier wasn’t put on the 3rd line because of his exceptional play this year. Meier has not performed like a top 6 consistently this year. Couture either. Kane’s been pretty consistent, hertl mostly as well.

Beyond those two it’s been a crapshoot if any one of the others is going to look like a top line forward or a plug in any given game.

if the four players you listed played to their potential consistently this year you’d have a point. They have not.

 

[SharksFan1]

Meier has not performed like a top 6 consistently this year. Couture either.

If Couture isn't a top-6 forward, being first in points on the team, then I guess the Sharks have zero top-6 forwards.

Although I agree Meier has not played like a top-6 forward for the majority of the season.