Seth Jones and his future (Sportsnet reports he intends to test free agency)

[Socks]

I can't speak for anyone else, but this would totally sell me, if only for the meese.

FIFY

 

[Cyclones Rock]

We're trading him this summer, that much is assured. But this bit is probably wrong. D like him usually don't peak at age 24. More like 30. Norris winners are on average over 30. Seth Jones will probably bounce back sharply getting away from Torts' turtlefest and be an elite defender, and an absolute steal, for whoever acquires him.

Hedman, Karlsson, Suban all had peak offensive output at 26. John Carlson at 30 and Josi at 29. Doughty at 27. Burns is an outlier at 34.

So, you're wrong from an offensive perspective.

Torts didn't seem to throttle Z's offensive output. Seth Jones is not offensively dynamic-he's decent. Most people get caught up in how smooth his skating is and overrate him. Seth Jones doesn't deserve to be in any serious conversation about Norris Winners.

 

[majormajor]

Hedman, Karlsson, Suban all had peak offensive output at 26. John Carlson at 30 and Josi at 29. Doughty at 27. Burns is an outlier at 34.

So, you're wrong from an offensive perspective.

Torts didn't seem to throttle Z's offensive output. Seth Jones is not offensively dynamic-he's decent. Most people get caught up in how smooth his skating is and overrate him. Seth Jones doesn't deserve to be in any serious conversation about Norris Winners.

I think you forget how good Seth was a few years back. He's not a dynamic pointman and not an elite puckhandler, but in an up tempo system like we had in 2016-17 and 2017-18 he can use his elite skating and shooting to contribute heavily to the offense. When he was playing with Panarin, the two of them were tied with Draisaitl and McDavid as the top 3v3 scorers in the league. Jones was comfortably the best OT defender in the league. More importantly, in the last two years the Jackets have been literally dead last in the league in rush plays, which is the surest way to underutilize Seth's strengths. He'd look instantly like an elite D-man on the Avs.

I would yield that many D have their best season pointswise in their 20s, but that doesn't mean that their best seasons aren't a bit later than that. Al Macinnis for example was a much better player long after his peak scoring. Norris votes aren't infallible but you should take something from the fact that since 1990 18 of the 29 winners have been 30+. And you have to see how silly it is to use Josi and Hedman's peak seasons to date as evidence that they're past their peak forever, considering how very possible it is that they both achieve career highs next year. Neither player is past their prime.

 

[MoeBartoli]

With Jones declaring he’s not going to sign until next year, two things become clear. One is that his value will be highest with only serious contenders. Thus, the return will be futures. As draft picks will likely be a centerpiece and the trade happens before this year’s draft, I’m looking at the Kings, Canucks, Blackhawks and maybe the Sharks as teams who likely think their ready that possess attractive picks. From there it falls to the quality of the prospect they’ll include.

Of course if the Jackets wait, then it becomes a 2022 pick. The problem with that is the draft position is unknown and it’s easy to end up with a pick in the 20s - not so great when dealing Jones (though just fine when it’s Savard or Nick). I tend to agree with @Cyclones Rock - value diminishes the longer you hold him.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

With Jones declaring he’s not going to sign until next year.

This isn’t confirmed. It’s Eklund. So he hasn’t “declared” anything official yet.

The rest of your post I agree with though.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Another defenseman on the market. Doesn’t help our cause

 

[majormajor]

Torts didn't seem to throttle Z's offensive output.

I just noticed this bit.

The difference is that Z is a dynamic pointman and Seth isn't. Seth is a puck rusher and a great open-ice scorer. He doesn't have the small area skill that Zach has. Zach can shimy and shake and open up lanes. So obviously one of these guys is going to get hurt a lot more by a system that removes rushing from the game in favor of more static play (dump-and-chase, etc...).

 

[majormajor]

With Jones declaring he’s not going to sign until next year, two things become clear. One is that his value will be highest with only serious contenders. Thus, the return will be futures. As draft picks will likely be a centerpiece and the trade happens before this year’s draft, I’m looking at the Kings, Canucks, Blackhawks and maybe the Sharks as teams who likely think their ready that possess attractive picks. From there it falls to the quality of the prospect they’ll include.

Of course if the Jackets wait, then it becomes a 2022 pick. The problem with that is the draft position is unknown and it’s easy to end up with a pick in the 20s - not so great when dealing Jones (though just fine when it’s Savard or Nick). I tend to agree with @Cyclones Rock - value diminishes the longer you hold him.

As CBJW pointed out - that no-signing report is just Eklund, we'll know it's real if an actual journalist picks it up.

Now if there isn't any possibility of a sign-and-trade, I would say yes, the value is going to be highest with contenders, and they'll likely be paying in futures. Maybe there's a chance that Colorado dangles Girard, or maybe Toronto really wants to unload Marner's salary. But most likely it will just be futures. Those four teams you mentioned aren't serious contenders, I'm not sure if I misread you somewhere.

 

[Fro]

Only recognition I give the Eklund thing, he has full contact with 2 teams...Philly and Nashville...Seth came from Nashville so maybe he has some insight others don't...

 

[Crede777]

If Eklund's allegations are true that Jones wants to go to free agency regardless of team, it shows that the CBJ are just unlucky rather then having something fundamentally wrong with the team or city. They had Johansen who wanted to raise the bar of what players coming off their ELC make. They had Panarin who only wanted to play for the Rangers. Nobody knows why PLD wanted moved but it wasn't the city (his IG shows him having plenty of fun out on the town and he just bought a really nice condo) or the team as constructed (coach, competitiveness). They just keep getting stars who have an ulterior motive.

 

[majormajor]

If Eklund's allegations are true that Jones wants to go to free agency regardless of team, it shows that the CBJ are just unlucky rather then having something fundamentally wrong with the team or city. They had Johansen who wanted to raise the bar of what players coming off their ELC make. They had Panarin who only wanted to play for the Rangers. Nobody knows why PLD wanted moved but it wasn't the city (his IG shows him having plenty of fun out on the town and he just bought a really nice condo) or the team as constructed (coach, competitiveness). They just keep getting stars who have an ulterior motive.

If the Eklund story is true I don't think it means any of that. It would sooner imply that Seth either 1) is very picky about where he's going long term, perhaps with just one or two destinations in mind or 2) Seth actually wants to be wined and dined as a literal UFA, which I still find unlikely. I don't think it means anything less damning or more damning about the Jackets.

 

[Xoggz22]

I just noticed this bit.

The difference is that Z is a dynamic pointman and Seth isn't. Seth is a puck rusher and a great open-ice scorer. He doesn't have the small area skill that Zach has. Zach can shimy and shake and open up lanes. So obviously one of these guys is going to get hurt a lot more by a system that removes rushing from the game in favor of more static play (dump-and-chase, etc...).

People also either forget or don't recognize that Jones was asked to play a different role being paired with Z. He wasn't asked to drive play but to support and protect. When given freedom he showed he can carry the puck and play in the offensive zone. This won't show in the analytics.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

People also either forget or don't recognize that Jones was asked to play a different role being paired with Z. He wasn't asked to drive play but to support and protect. When given freedom he showed he can carry the puck and play in the offensive zone. This won't show in the analytics.

He was paired with Zach almost from the get go. Torts experimented with splitting them up but always went back to that top pairing. So his play changed, but it was the system and not his partner that was the driver of that.

 

[Xoggz22]

He was paired with Zach almost from the get go. Torts experimented with splitting them up but always went back to that top pairing. So his play changed, but it was the system and not his partner that was the driver of that.

Maybe i want clear, it was his partner. The only time he was given free run was the Safe is Death season. Which happened to be 2 years ago. The time many like to point to him being "good". He's always been asked to cover. After Bob, both were asked to tone it back but Seth always carried more responsibility.

 

[KallioWeHardlyKnewYe]

People always say that about the top pending UFAs/trade bait. We were screaming from our lungs about how Panarin was underrated meanwhile a big portion of HF was saying he wasn’t worth near 10M. Now he’s an MVP candidate and people don’t remember that. But I do

I'm always amused by the unwillingness to talk honestly about players as if we're actually in a real negotiation and they can't yield their position. It's like they feel they're undermining their real team by admitting on a message board a player they want may be good.

 

[Crede777]

If the Eklund story is true I don't think it means any of that. It would sooner imply that Seth either 1) is very picky about where he's going long term, perhaps with just one or two destinations in mind or 2) Seth actually wants to be wined and dined as a literal UFA, which I still find unlikely. I don't think it means anything less damning or more damning about the Jackets.

It would be less damning because no matter what the city or the Jackets did, it wouldn't really change his mind. Hence, just bad luck.

 

[KJ Dangler]

 

[MoeBartoli]

As CBJW pointed out - that no-signing report is just Eklund, we'll know it's real if an actual journalist picks it up.

Now if there isn't any possibility of a sign-and-trade, I would say yes, the value is going to be highest with contenders, and they'll likely be paying in futures. Maybe there's a chance that Colorado dangles Girard, or maybe Toronto really wants to unload Marner's salary. But most likely it will just be futures. Those four teams you mentioned aren't serious contenders, I'm not sure if I misread you somewhere.

In my my I don’t see them as true contenders……but I believe these are four teams that will add because they think that they can be contenders.

 

[EspenK]

I just spent some time browsing Capfriendly to see if any logical trade partners jumped out. Didn't see any. The teams with cap space to take on Jones don't have much to offer other than picks and maybe prospects. And most of them are weaker teams with no real incentive to take Jones unless he indicates he will extend. If Ekund is to be believed that ain't going to happen.

Dallas would be an ideal candidate whose window is rapidly closing. They have 17mm to sign 8 to 9 guys so trading for Jones with picks/prospects seems to put them in a bind cap wise. Trading Hintz & Gurianov would work but I don't see them doing that. Bottom line unless I'm totally off the wall I don't see them as a fit.

Colorado if they trade Girard plus would be almost cap neutral. I don't know if that works for CBJ but it might.

Maybe our best bet is to wait for TDL and dump him to a contender for picks in the upcoming 22 &23 drafts?

 

[VT]

I just spent some time browsing Capfriendly to see if any logical trade partners jumped out. Didn't see any. The teams with cap space to take on Jones don't have much to offer other than picks and maybe prospects. And most of them are weaker teams with no real incentive to take Jones unless he indicates he will extend. If Ekund is to be believed that ain't going to happen.

Dallas would be an ideal candidate whose window is rapidly closing. They have 17mm to sign 8 to 9 guys so trading for Jones with picks/prospects seems to put them in a bind cap wise. Trading Hintz & Gurianov would work but I don't see them doing that. Bottom line unless I'm totally off the wall I don't see them as a fit.

Colorado if they trade Girard plus would be almost cap neutral. I don't know if that works for CBJ but it might.

Maybe our best bet is to wait for TDL and dump him to a contender for picks in the upcoming 22 &23 drafts?

IMHO Colorado yes. Dallas... I don`t see any reason to take Guryanov but Hintz would be good.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

once again this is hockeybuzz, aka eklund's site, backing up the guy who pays their bills. Take this with another grain of salt.

but if im going to play along. any deal to Colorado has to include a good defenseman prospect coming back. Not sure if Byram is still highly regarded but he's a possibility

 

[thebus88]

Everything Jones does on the ice has a positive impact on the perception of the player Werenski is, along with improving Werenski’s offensive/overall “statistics”.

Nothing Werenski does has a positive impact on ANYTHING, in regards to Jones.

I don’t understand how anybody can say anything negative regarding Jones and his potential cap hit, or question his ability as a #1D, and yet pass off the idea that the CBJ would be “fine” in the future/moving forward with Werenski filling the same role and making essentially the same amount, not to mention more than enough people seem ‘ok’ with the idea as Gavrikov as the #2D….

 

[Youngguns80]

I really want Jones to be a Blue Jacket for the rest of his career but after he informed the team that he wanted to test free agency I took that as I want to see other people.

Trade him for assets and get a first line center like Eichel. If we cannot land a fish like that then trade Laine and get Beniers in the draft, build back up. It is as simple as that.

 

[Fro]

Everything Jones does on the ice has a positive impact on the perception of the player Werenski is, along with improving Werenski’s offensive/overall “statistics”.

Nothing Werenski does has a positive impact on ANYTHING, in regards to Jones.

I don’t understand how anybody can say anything negative regarding Jones and his potential cap hit, or question his ability as a #1D, and yet pass off the idea that the CBJ would be “fine” in the future/moving forward with Werenski filling the same role and making essentially the same amount, not to mention more than enough people seem ‘ok’ with the idea as Gavrikov as the #2D….

I wouldn't feel comfortable being that emphatic either way...they compliment each other well...

I feel our scoring suffered whenever Z was out of the lineup, and when Seth broke his leg, the team also suffered...both are bonified 1D

 

[Cyclones Rock]

don't know if that works for CBJ but it might.

Maybe our best bet is to wait for TDL and dump him to a contender for picks in the upcoming 22 &23 drafts?

This could yield the best return, but................................

The CBJ have suffered from enough Pre Traumatic Pending UFA Syndrome for a lifetime, I think.