Pre-Game Talk: Series Discussion: WC Qualifier - Edmonton Oilers (5) vs. Chicago Blackhawks (12)

[fireantz]

Several comments about Chicago having advantage in net. Short series in 7 days will require two tenders. Advantage Edmonton! Add a defence 8-10 deep. Advantage Edmonton! Special teams are highly important in playoffs. Advantage Edmonton! I expect no more than 4 games. Advantage Oilers!

 

[Samus44]

For the play-in:

RNH-McDavid-Kassian
Athanasiou-Draisaitl-Yamamoto
Ennis-Sheahan-Archibald
Neal-Khaira-Chiasson
Nygard-Haas

Klefbom-Larsson
Nurse-Bear
Russell-Benning

Koskinen
Smith

Nygard was playing really well before his injury, i'm trying him with Sheahan and Archibald again. I think he's an underrated asset. I'm not sure what they should do with Nuge but I'd probably reunite him with Drai-Yamo at first. McDavid needs help but that "2nd" line was absurdly good so I'd probably see what McDavid can do without him first. I will say the Kharia line being reunited after a couple shockingly good games isn't a bad idea. It's tough to know who they'll scratch but unless injuries are a factor guys better be ready to play.

I'd be shocked if Green doesn't make it in the lineup. For me the real question mark will be if it's alongside Russell or Klefbom. I suspect if Jones can beat Russell out, a possibility but unlikely IMO, then I'd guess they play Green with Klefbom and Larsson with Jones.

 

[McShogun99]

Several comments about Chicago having advantage in net. Short series in 7 days will require two tenders. Advantage Edmonton! Add a defence 8-10 deep. Advantage Edmonton! Special teams are highly important in playoffs. Advantage Edmonton! I expect no more than 4 games. Advantage Oilers!

The only real advantage Chicago has is playoff experience from their veteran core. Outside of a group of 6 players Chicago is a very young, inexperienced team.

 

[bone]

The only real advantage Chicago has is playoff experience from their veteran core. Outside of a group of 6 players Chicago is a very young, inexperienced team.

It's just that the Core 6 in Chicago pretty much have as many games as everyone else on both teams combined. That said, I actually like Edmonton's experience better after those 6. A lot of these players were together for 13 game run three years ago, Neal and Green have a lot of playoff experience, Chiasson has a cup ring, Smith has experience in playoffs as well, and most of the newer non-rookie recruits have at least played in a playoff series or two.

Tippett does have the option to dress a lineup where the only players without a playoff game would be KY, Bear and whoever dresses out of Khaira, Haas and Nygard. I wouldn't be surprised if that's the exact route he takes at least for game 1.

 

[bone]

Several comments about Chicago having advantage in net. Short series in 7 days will require two tenders. Advantage Edmonton! Add a defence 8-10 deep. Advantage Edmonton! Special teams are highly important in playoffs. Advantage Edmonton! I expect no more than 4 games. Advantage Oilers!

I didn't consider the quick turnaround and possible requirement to play both goalies if you go 4 games in 5 nights.

That said, Chicago will be all in on Crawford and he'll play till he drops, it doesn't look to me that they'd even need to play 4 in 5 days, but definitely 3 in 4.

 

[Mr Positive]

It seems pretty clear that the Hawks do have an advantage in net. It's just a fact that our org hasn't put a priority on that position. I would love for us to trade for Georgiev in the offseason, or at least someone who could be our goalie of the future.

 

[Mr Positive]

I didn't consider the quick turnaround and possible requirement to play both goalies if you go 4 games in 5 nights.

That said, Chicago will be all in on Crawford and he'll play till he drops, it doesn't look to me that they'd even need to play 4 in 5 days, but definitely 3 in 4.

Most teams lean on one goalie, but you are right that over the grind, having two goalies might be a special advantage if this tourament is very compressed.

But the problem with that vs Chicago is that Crawford should be fine, and even heat up with the extra play time. He'd only start burning out deeper into the playoffs.

But it's still an interesting advantage we might have. I'm not too worried about Chicago, but later on we may see both our goalies switch off just for that factor. Maybe even team depth from the press box might even be important for skaters.

 

[Fourier]

It's just that the Core 6 in Chicago pretty much have as many games as everyone else on both teams combined. That said, I actually like Edmonton's experience better after those 6. A lot of these players were together for 13 game run three years ago, Neal and Green have a lot of playoff experience, Chiasson has a cup ring, Smith has experience in playoffs as well, and most of the newer non-rookie recruits have at least played in a playoff series or two.

Tippett does have the option to dress a lineup where the only players without a playoff game would be KY, Bear and whoever dresses out of Khaira, Haas and Nygard. I wouldn't be surprised if that's the exact route he takes at least for game 1.

Chicago's experience has not won a playoff series in the last 5 years. Of course the year before that they won it all. I actually agree with your assessment that experience may not be much of an advantage if any. For me the big ?? is what happens in goal. A hot goalie can flip a short series as can a guy who plays poorly.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

It seems pretty clear that the Hawks do have an advantage in net. It's just a fact that our org hasn't put a priority on that position. I would love for us to trade for Georgiev in the offseason, or at least someone who could be our goalie of the future.

Id suggest you look at the stats.

Chicago doesn't have a "pretty clear" advantage in net.

Koskinen and Crawford have near identical numbers the last 2 years.

 

[McTonyBrar]

I think it's a good idea to start with RNH with McDavid and Ennis with Draisaitl. We know that RNH with Drai and Yams is money, and we need to balance things out. If these lines don't work out, you just move them back. Simple as. Worth a try.

That won't work. Ennis is small and so is Yam. Those wings are way too small for one line. It should be

RNH McD Kass
AA Drai Yam
Enn Haas Chia
Kha Shea Archi

Have Neal as 13th forward to replace Khaira eventually. Nygard just a scratch for now. This is just for the exhibition game

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

the Hawks give up the most shots in the league and give up a ton of high-danger chances

if they win, it will be on the back of Corey Crawford (and Kane)

 

[McTonyBrar]

It seems pretty clear that the Hawks do have an advantage in net. It's just a fact that our org hasn't put a priority on that position. I would love for us to trade for Georgiev in the offseason, or at least someone who could be our goalie of the future.

Askarov

 

[Mr Positive]

Id suggest you look at the stats.

Chicago doesn't have a "pretty clear" advantage in net.

Koskinen and Crawford have near identical numbers the last 2 years.

Crawford had a much harder job than either of our guys, and his numbers were getting better and better after Lehner left.

Also we don't even know what we are going to do in net. A lot of people are saying Smith starts because of playoff experience, but his stats are bad.

With Crawford, it's like if you took the good things about both our guys and put them into one.

We will be counting on our skaters to control possession, and support our goalies.

 

[Mr Positive]

Askarov

No one in our org would like that idea. It's all about drafting a forward now.

I'd love for us to get Askarov, if we're lucky enough for him to drop. I think he will, just because this draft is so deep, especially at forward.

 

[SupremeTeam16]

Crawford had a much harder job than either of our guys, and his numbers were getting better and better after Lehner left.

Also we don't even know what we are going to do in net. A lot of people are saying Smith starts because of playoff experience, but his stats are bad.

With Crawford, it's like if you took the good things about both our guys and put them into one.

We will be counting on our skaters to control possession, and support our goalies.

Smith has some terrific career playoff numbers, Im pretty sure he’s near .930 sv% career in the playoffs. Hawks give up a ton of shots and chances and now they’re facing two of the best scorers in the league. If the Oilers get on Crawford early and often he’ll fold.

 

[CycloneSweep]

the Hawks give up the most shots in the league and give up a ton of high-danger chances

if they win, it will be on the back of Corey Crawford (and Kane)

They've outshot us every game this year, especially 5on5.

 

[Mr Positive]

Smith has some terrific career playoff numbers, Im pretty sure he’s near .930 sv% career in the playoffs. Hawks give up a ton of shots and chances and now they’re facing two of the best scorers in the league. If the Oilers get on Crawford early and often he’ll fold.

Hawks have a better record against us than the rest of the league though, and that includes Crawford's stats, and Crawford has great playoff numbers as well. Basically if the McDavid line sputters and the refs put whistles away, the Hawks could put a scare into us. I still say we are the strong favorites, but there are issues. We aren't a fully formed contender yet.

And the obvious point is that Smith is getting to an age where he could fall off in a hurry. It might already be happening.

 

[Shaquille Oatmeal]

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

They've outshot us every game this year, especially 5on5.

So? My point still stands

 

[Fourier]

Hawks have a better record against us than the rest of the league though, and that includes Crawford's stats, and Crawford has great playoff numbers as well. Basically if the McDavid line sputters and the refs put whistles away, the Hawks could put a scare into us. I still say we are the strong favorites, but there are issues. We aren't a fully formed contender yet.

And the obvious point is that Smith is getting to an age where he could fall off in a hurry. It might already be happening.

Generally the refs don't put away the whistle though. Statistically, pp's actually rise in the playoffs.

 

[oXo Cube]

Generally the refs don't put away the whistle though. Statistically, pp's actually rise in the playoffs.

You would think this board would know that given that in our last go round Kassian was routinely given 2 minutes for taking his regular shift.

 

[Fourier]

You would think this board would know that given that in our last go round Kassian was routinely given 2 minutes for taking his regular shift.

It's a pretty common assumption that penalties go down in the playoffs. I think it comes from the huge change in intensity that makes it seem like things don't get called very often. But that same change in intensity still generates more over all calls.

 

[Stud Muffin]

I would say Koskinen and Crawford are pretty close to a wash considering they’ve both have a .917 save percentage. But I believe Tippett has a bias which will work in Smiths favour and give the hawks a edge in net.

 

[Three On Zero]

View attachment 352816

Best thing i’ve seen all day

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

If Smith plays the way he did for Calgary in last years playoffs and how he played for Arizona when they were a playoff team, we have nothing to worry about in net.