Pre-Game Talk: Series Discussion: WC Qualifier - Edmonton Oilers (5) vs. Chicago Blackhawks (12)

[HawkeyTalkMan]

He's shot over 15% in three separate entire seasons so far. Youre going to have to come to grips with the fact that maybe "mean elite" doesn't do enough to describe Draisaitl's shooting ability.

Once could be a fluke. Twice could be unsustainable. Three times is looking like a pattern.

I think there is where someone points out what "outliers" entail. he's also had seasons at 12 and 14 percent

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

I think there is where someone points out what "outliers" entail. he's also had seasons at 12 and 14 percent

which seem to be the outliers

 

[ChaoticOrange]

I think there is where someone points out what "outliers" entail. he's also had seasons at 12 and 14 percent

Yes, which is why I took the trouble to give his career average. His *average* season is 17% right now. At the moment, the 12 and 14 percent seasons are the outliers.

 

[Senor Catface]

And at a certain point, you can't really use the term "unsustainable" when it's clearly being sustained.

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

And at a certain point, you can't really use the term "unsustainable"when it's clearly being sustained.

But ovie has never shot 20% in a season... so it must not be possible.

 

[MessierII]

But ovie has never shot 20% in a season... so it must not be possible.

Ovy is a vollume shooter. A pure shooter and scorer. Leon is a playmaker with elite finishing skills. He’s not firing like ovy on every look he’s picking his spots.

 

[Cloned]

I think there is where someone points out what "outliers" entail. he's also had seasons at 12 and 14 percent

When one of his "down" seasons is at 14%, you know you're talking about a pretty elite shooter here.

 

[Fourier]

huh? almost all his time deployed and all his 5v5 advanced stats are better with Kane than without as well as with harder zone deployment (more defensive zone starts than offensive)

Line Stats - Natural Stat Trick

Kubaliks year has been a result of his growing chemistry with Toews and very little to do with riding any little playing time with Kane. Only the goals for/60 is higher with Kane which you can directly correlate with the higher percentage of off. zone starts but their possession stats are much worse, also with Kane being an elite scorer burying the puck himself

summary: Kubalik/Toews will be a challenge for EDM to handle, regardless of what Kane is doing

The issue we were talking about was the sustainability of his goal scoring. Frankly I could not care less about who he has better Corsi with. The reality is that he scored 11 goals in 133 minutes he played 5 vs 5 with Kane. And the vast majority of that time was also spent with Toews on the ice. Kane assisted on 7 of those 11 goals but it does not really matter who set him up. The point is that far more than Draisaitl's sh%, his scoring rate playing with that pair is unsustainable for anyone other than Gretzky or Lemieux.

You nor I have any idea if Kubalik will be able to reproduce his results this year because he has no track record to support this level of production to fall back on. Patrick Maroon scored 35 goals in 97 games playing a lot with McDavid. That run ended and he is now good for about 10-15 per year. Maybe his chemistry with Toews is the real thing and he will become Toews Matt Moulson. But that scenario is very rare. What we do know is that Draisaitl has actually established himself as an elite scorer. Hence my willingness to bet on the big German in this debate.

 

[HawkeyTalkMan]

Yes, which is why I took the trouble to give his career average. His *average* season is 17% right now. At the moment, the 12 and 14 percent seasons are the outliers.

And last seasons 21% isn't. Gotcha

 

[HawkeyTalkMan]

which seem to be the outliers

The 12 is as much an outlier as last year's career high...

 

[Senor Catface]

And last seasons 21% isn't. Gotcha

He followed up that 21 percent the following season with a 20 percent shooting percentage.

He has sustained that shooting percentage now for 150 games, not a single season

 

[Delicious Pancakes]

And last seasons 21% isn't. Gotcha

Do you think that if you keep saying Draisaitl's shooting percentage is unsustainable that he'll suddenly become a non-elite shooter for the series against the Hawks? I can't prove that that won't work but you might be wasting your time.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

And last seasons 21% isn't. Gotcha

Start a poll on the main boards on who’s shooting percentage is more likely to regress.

kubalik or draisaitl.

good luck

 

[Tobias Kahun]

The 12 is as much an outlier as last year's career high...

Actually, the 12 is further from his average than 21.

 

[Oilhawks]

And at a certain point, you can't really use the term "unsustainable" when it's clearly being sustained.

Nonsense, you totally can if you're a blind fanboy of another team

 

[tardigrade81]

Nonsense, you totally can if you're a blind fanboy of another team

Hmmmm so this is why the leafs fans think they’re gonna win the cup every year.

 

[Delicious Pancakes]

Hmmmm so this is why the leafs fans think they’re gonna win the cup every year.

I mean a Stanley Cup drought can only last so long right?...Right?!....RIGHT?!?!?!?

 

[tardigrade81]

I mean a Stanley Cup drought can only last so long right?...Right?!....RIGHT?!?!?!?

53 years. I mean. The Sox went 86 years before winning another World Series. Leafs could still be cup less for another 3 decades lmao.

 

[Draiskull]

So Klefbom-Larsson and Nurse-Bear pairing are a given.

Russell vs Jones for 3LD and Green vs Benning for 3RD.

Does Holland go with experience?

 

[duul]

So Klefbom-Larsson and Nurse-Bear pairing are a given.

Russell vs Jones for 3LD and Green vs Benning for 3RD.

Does Holland go with experience?

I don't necessarily agree with this.

Jones looked to be our best defenceman in the last 10 games of the year.

Klefbom-Bear
Jones-Larsson
Nurse-Bouchard/Benning/Green

 

[bone]

I don't necessarily agree with this.

Jones looked to be our best defenceman in the last 10 games of the year.

Klefbom-Bear
Jones-Larsson
Nurse-Bouchard/Benning/Green

I’d be very interested in trying those first two pairs but would be concerned about Nurse with Benning and to a lesser extent Bouchard moreso because his rookie status. Would like these next year though as Nurse did well with this years main rookie.

 

[McDNicks17]

I don't necessarily agree with this.

Jones looked to be our best defenceman in the last 10 games of the year.

Klefbom-Bear
Jones-Larsson
Nurse-Bouchard/Benning/Green

I'd say there's a 99.9% chance Tipp doesn't break up Nurse and Bear.

 

[duul]

I'd say there's a 99.9% chance Tipp doesn't break up Nurse and Bear.

Well here's to hoping, because Klefbom-Larsson is a debacle of a pairing, and there's no way Klefbom is going to be playing bottom pairing minutes in place of Jones.

 

[tardigrade81]

I don't necessarily agree with this.

Jones looked to be our best defenceman in the last 10 games of the year.

Klefbom-Bear
Jones-Larsson
Nurse-Bouchard/Benning/Green

I like that. Do I dare say, Larsson even started to look better near the end of the season.

 

[McDNicks17]

Well here's to hoping, because Klefbom-Larsson is a debacle of a pairing, and there's no way Klefbom is going to be playing bottom pairing minutes in place of Jones.

I don't really agree. Larsson was showing some signs of life by the end of the season. From January on, he and Klef had better metrics than Jones while playing 5+ more minutes of 5v5 per night.

I think you almost have to play them together too when you look at metrics. They have solid metrics together and terrible metrics when apart.