Pre-Game Talk: Series Discussion: WC Qualifier - Edmonton Oilers (5) vs. Chicago Blackhawks (12)

[FlameChampion]

Article looks like it was only half written. Talking about things and then just stops lol.

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

Article looks like it was only half written. Talking about things and then just stops lol.

I think he ran out of time. That or his stove caught fire.

 

[Fourier]

So you're using your eye test from when he was in juniors to evaluate what he's doing in the NHL now?

That's what you got out of the totality of my post? I literally said that as a junior I did not see a player I thought had a great chance of making the NHL but what he is doing now is impressive. But let's be honest here, his record in the past does not suggest that his results this year could be expected nor do they give one a lot of confidence that they will be repeated. Certainly not at the same level of confidence one might have in the likelihood that Draisaitl can keep up his pace. If you think you have a year in - year out 35 goal scorer as his pace this year suggests then good on you. But I think I will still put my money on Leon thank you.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

So draisaitl will shoot 20% for the foreseeable future and give ovechkin and Gretzky a run for all time goal scoring?

You do understand the different between ovechkin being a volume shooter and draisaitl not right?

 

[bone]

Like I posted earlier, his even strength numbers are heavily skewed by OT numbers. Without 3v3 in the playoffs, the even strength difference doesn't mean much.

So he scored all 51 of his Even Strength points at 3-on-3?

Obviously I know you're not saying that but even the corrected 5 on 5 numbers posted later on have him reasonably close to McDavid who is considered by many to be the best player in the game or at worst top 5 in the game. The point is he's still a serious threat, a 1st liner level threat at even strength, despite being on their 2nd line.

 

[FlameChampion]

So draisaitl will shoot 20% for the foreseeable future and give ovechkin and Gretzky a run for all time goal scoring?

I know the 20% shooting seems unsustainable and it probably is to some degree but you have to realize that both Draisaitl and McDavid are pretty selective with their shots. They wait for their opportunities to shoot, sometimes to a fault. As others have said they are not volume shooters. It will probably drop but not by much.

 

[HawkeyTalkMan]

That's what you got out of the totality of my post? I literally said that as a junior I did not see a player I thought had a great chance of making the NHL but what he is doing now is impressive. But let's be honest here, his record in the past does not suggest that his results this year could be expected nor do they give one a lot of confidence that they will be repeated. Certainly not at the same level of confidence one might have in the likelihood that Draisaitl can keep up his pace. If you think you have a year in - year out 35 goal scorer as his pace this year suggests then good on you. But I think I will still put my money on Leon thank you.

And again, I will point out draisaitls scoring rate is also historically unsustainable, by a pretty significant margin

 

[HawkeyTalkMan]

So he scored all 51 of his Even Strength points at 3-on-3?

Obviously I know you're not saying that but even the corrected 5 on 5 numbers posted later on have him reasonably close to McDavid who is considered by many to be the best player in the game or at worst top 5 in the game. The point is he's still a serious threat, a 1st liner level threat at even strength, despite being on their 2nd line.

Thank you. That's literally all I was trying to say stemming back from the comment Kane was a one man show on Chicago's offense

 

[HawkeyTalkMan]

You do understand the different between ovechkin being a volume shooter and draisaitl not right?

That's where you mislead the argument because that illustrates ovechkin as some kind of junkball shooter. He's one of the deadliest shooters in the game and it's not just because of volume

 

[HawkeyTalkMan]

I know the 20% shooting seems unsustainable and it probably is to some degree but you have to realize that both Draisaitl and McDavid are pretty selective with their shots. They wait for their opportunities to shoot, sometimes to a fault. As others have said they are not volume shooters. It will probably drop but not by much.

And that's fair. If I use someone in comparison besides OV who obviously has always had high volume and swap him for someone more selective and equally deadly of a shooter in Kucherov, he is still roughly a 15% career shooter, which is always going to be one of the top shooting percentages among top goal scorers on average

That's still a 25% drop in shooting percentage from where draisaitl had been humming along at and where I think you can reasonably expect him to regress to even if he continues to play well without hitting a massive skid

While that may not sound like a whole lot but that's the difference between someone being a 50 goal scorer to a 37 goal scorer and a 30 goal scorer to a 22 goal scorer. It's not insignificant

 

[duul]

And that's fair. If I use someone in comparison besides OV who obviously has always had high volume and swap him for someone more selective and equally deadly of a shooter in Kucherov, he is still roughly a 15% career shooter, which is always going to be one of the top shooting percentages among top goal scorers on average

That's still a 25% drop in shooting percentage from where draisaitl had been humming along at and where I think you can reasonably expect him to regress to even if he continues to play well without hitting a massive skid

While that may not sound like a whole lot but that's the difference between someone being a 50 goal scorer to a 37 goal scorer and a 30 goal scorer to a 22 goal scorer. It's not insignificant

Meh, Draisaitl would've nearly been back to back 50 goal scorer the last 160+ games he's played. Think that's just how he plays the game. Elite overall players always have high SH% over the mean.

 

[McDNicks17]

So he scored all 51 of his Even Strength points at 3-on-3?

Obviously I know you're not saying that but even the corrected 5 on 5 numbers posted later on have him reasonably close to McDavid who is considered by many to be the best player in the game or at worst top 5 in the game. The point is he's still a serious threat, a 1st liner level threat at even strength, despite being on their 2nd line.

I'm not saying he's a bad player. Just that it's a little silly for that poster to imply he's a McDavid level threat because of some skewed OT numbers and inflated onSH%.

 

[duul]

And that's fair. If I use someone in comparison besides OV who obviously has always had high volume and swap him for someone more selective and equally deadly of a shooter in Kucherov, he is still roughly a 15% career shooter, which is always going to be one of the top shooting percentages among top goal scorers on average

That's still a 25% drop in shooting percentage from where draisaitl had been humming along at and where I think you can reasonably expect him to regress to even if he continues to play well without hitting a massive skid

While that may not sound like a whole lot but that's the difference between someone being a 50 goal scorer to a 37 goal scorer and a 30 goal scorer to a 22 goal scorer. It's not insignificant

And let's be honest, while Draisaitl doesn't have the release Ovi does (nobody does), Draisaitl is certainly a top 3 shooter in the NHL now. His one-timer and shot in general is just insane. Crazy how far he came along with it.

 

[bone]

I'm not saying he's a bad player. Just that it's a little silly for that poster to imply he's a McDavid level threat because of some skewed OT numbers and inflated onSH%.

That's fair, but could it also be fair that the high shooting percentage from Kubalik could be related to how Toews plays giving him good opportunities to cash. We probably won't know for some time, but Toews also put up 81 last years (granted he played with Kane much more).

Going back to his slower years before that, he played a lot with Panik and Saad. Maybe this small resurgence is a little bit of puck luck from Kubalik, or maybe just him finding a player than can actually cash the plays he generates. Again, we probably won't know for while.

On the other topic here (Drai keeping up his shooting vs. Kubalik), I know I'd bet on the guy who is one year younger (draft eligibility wise) and has done it multiple times than a first time guy playing his rookie season six years after being drafted.

If the argument was who can keep the production up Yamamoto vs. Kubalik, I'd say that's fair, as they have similar sample sizes of NHL games, but still keeping in mind Yamamoto is doing this four years earlier into his career.

 

[McShogun99]

DeBrincat and Kubalik are no slouches. DeBrincat had 40 goals last year and Kubalik 30 in 68 this year.

Kane was a huge factor in their success. Shutdown Kane and you shutdown his line mates. Easier said then done though.

 

[MessierII]

Sustainability doesn’t mean anything in the playoffs. Your talking short high stakes series where you either win or you dont. Everyone’s stats are at 0. Nothing anyone did this year means anything.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

And again, I will point out draisaitls scoring rate is also historically unsustainable, by a pretty significant margin

Draisaitl's last 4 seasons he's shot 17%, 13%, 22% and 20%, and his career average is now 17%. It might dip a little bit, but I wouldn't put any money on it.

He spits on your puny advanced stats and cries of "unsustainable".

 

[bone]

Kane was a huge factor in their success. Shutdown Kane and you shutdown his line mates. Easier said then done though.

Maybe Strome and DeBrincat's success is tied to Kane, but less so for Kubalik. He's had more icetime 5 on 5 with four other forward before. Kubalik's most common linemates are Toews, Kampf, Saad and Caggiula. Granted, in his limited time with Kane they have produced quite a few goals overall by the team (16 in 133 minutes).

 

[Fourier]

And again, I will point out draisaitls scoring rate is also historically unsustainable, by a pretty significant margin

Leon's sh% this year is 19.7%. His career number is 16.9%. And there is no doubt that he has put immense effort into his shot over the last few seasons. In fact he has reinvented parts of his game in response to playing with McDavid both at ES and on the pp. Watch those two in the warm-up and see what they do. without a goalie in net Leon stations himself inside the hash marks and takes one timers off McDavid feeds. Now take a look at where he scores his goals and where he takes his shots on the pp.

MoneyPuck.com -Shot Maps

This is not about him riding McDavid's coat tails. He is so smart reads off McDavid as well as you could expect any player. Plus he incredibly skilled and creative in his own right. The only duo I have seen in my time as an Oiler fan that worked better together were Gretzky and Kurri. And I am including Messier and Anderson.

If Draisaitl's shooting %-age drops to his career norm then he probably scores 35-40 goals in a typical year. But frankly there is no reason to believe that he can't flirt with 50 goals on a regular basis if both he and McDavid are healthy, even if they do not play together all the time at ES.

If you want a goalie's opinion here it is:

https://www.theplayerstribune.com/global/articles/john-gibson-anaheim-ducks-elite-101-goal-scorers

Kubalik's numbers in 133 minutes with Kane are insane. Nearly 5 g/60 minutes. As I said that would have him break Gretzky's record if it was sustained. Maybe they become a legendary duo. Or maybe its a hot streak that he will never repeat. Only the future will tell. But arguing that a guy with little history as a goals scorer is as likely to sustain his level of performance based on two exceptional months as a guy who universally considered one of the best players in the game is difficult to justify.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

That's where you mislead the argument because that illustrates ovechkin as some kind of junkball shooter. He's one of the deadliest shooters in the game and it's not just because of volume

I’m not misleading anything. Taking 400 shots and scoring on 15% is more goals than taking 200 shots and scoring on 20%.

 

[HawkeyTalkMan]

Meh, Draisaitl would've nearly been back to back 50 goal scorer the last 160+ games he's played. Think that's just how he plays the game. Elite overall players always have high SH% over the mean.

Except 15% is the mean for elite shooters. He's still shooting well above the elite mean

 

[HawkeyTalkMan]

Draisaitl's last 4 seasons he's shot 17%, 13%, 22% and 20%, and his career average is now 17%. It might dip a little bit, but I wouldn't put any money on it.

He spits on your puny advanced stats and cries of "unsustainable".

Ok. I think your poster is starting to peel off the wall

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Ok. I think your poster is starting to peel off the wall

He's shot over 15% in three separate entire seasons so far. Youre going to have to come to grips with the fact that maybe "mean elite" doesn't do enough to describe Draisaitl's shooting ability.

Once could be a fluke. Twice could be unsustainable. Three times is looking like a pattern.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

Ok. I think your poster is starting to peel off the wall

What’s the point in coming to HFOil if this is your response?

 

[HawkeyTalkMan]

Leon's sh% this year is 19.7%. His career number is 16.9%. And there is no doubt that he has put immense effort into his shot over the last few seasons. In fact he has reinvented parts of his game in response to playing with McDavid both at ES and on the pp. Watch those two in the warm-up and see what they do. without a goalie in net Leon stations himself inside the hash marks and takes one timers off McDavid feeds. Now take a look at where he scores his goals and where he takes his shots on the pp.

MoneyPuck.com -Shot Maps

This is not about him riding McDavid's coat tails. He is so smart reads off McDavid as well as you could expect any player. Plus he incredibly skilled and creative in his own right. The only duo I have seen in my time as an Oiler fan that worked better together were Gretzky and Kurri. And I am including Messier and Anderson.

If Draisaitl's shooting %-age drops to his career norm then he probably scores 35-40 goals in a typical year. But frankly there is no reason to believe that he can't flirt with 50 goals on a regular basis if both he and McDavid are healthy, even if they do not play together all the time at ES.

If you want a goalie's opinion here it is:

https://www.theplayerstribune.com/global/articles/john-gibson-anaheim-ducks-elite-101-goal-scorers

Kubalik's numbers in 133 minutes with Kane are insane. Nearly 5 g/60 minutes. As I said that would have him break Gretzky's record if it was sustained. Maybe they become a legendary duo. Or maybe its a hot streak that he will never repeat. Only the future will tell. But arguing that a guy with little history as a goals scorer is as likely to sustain his level of performance based on two exceptional months as a guy who universally considered one of the best players in the game is difficult to justify.

huh? almost all his time deployed and all his 5v5 advanced stats are better with Kane than without as well as with harder zone deployment (more defensive zone starts than offensive)

Line Stats - Natural Stat Trick

Kubaliks year has been a result of his growing chemistry with Toews and very little to do with riding any little playing time with Kane. Only the goals for/60 is higher with Kane which you can directly correlate with the higher percentage of off. zone starts but their possession stats are much worse, also with Kane being an elite scorer burying the puck himself

summary: Kubalik/Toews will be a challenge for EDM to handle, regardless of what Kane is doing