Pre-Game Talk: Series Discussion: WC Qualifier - Edmonton Oilers (5) vs. Chicago Blackhawks (12)

[SupremeTeam16]

I think they’re going to match Toews against McDavid to try and shut him down. Likewise the Oilers should challenge RNH to shadow Kane and take him out of it as much is possible. Draisaitl, Yamamoto and our other depth players will be key. Hawks defense isn’t great, they give up a lot of shots and I think if we pressure them early on Crawford will fold.

Also I think while the league wanted these big market teams in to drive tv numbers, I don’t think they want any of these teams moving on, it just creates more headaches for them so I wouldn’t be surprised to see the teams like Edm and Pits getting the benefit of the doubt with officiating or any calls the booth officials have to make.

 

[McDNicks17]

Calling chicagos offense a one player team is just laughable

Between dach, Kane, strome, toews, kubalik, debrincat, and Saad there is a lot to worry about out there 5v5

And I couldn't recall exact specifics but I think toews scores 5v5 per 60 more than mcdavid this year...

Toews(and Kane too) would be 4th on the Oilers in 5v5 points/60 this year behind Drai, McDavid and Yamo.

 

[bellagiobob]

I think they’re going to match Toews against McDavid to try and shut him down. Likewise the Oilers should challenge RNH to shadow Kane and take him out of it as much is possible. Draisaitl, Yamamoto and our other depth players will be key. Hawks defense isn’t great, they give up a lot of shots and I think if we pressure them early on Crawford will fold.

Also I think while the league wanted these big market teams in to drive tv numbers, I don’t think they want any of these teams moving on, it just creates more headaches for them so I wouldn’t be surprised to see the teams like Edm and Pits getting the benefit of the doubt with officiating or any calls the booth officials have to make.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

Calling chicagos offense a one player team is just laughable

Between dach, Kane, strome, toews, kubalik, debrincat, and Saad there is a lot to worry about out there 5v5

And I couldn't recall exact specifics but I think toews scores 5v5 per 60 more than mcdavid this year...

probably because that was false.

 

[HawkeyTalkMan]

Toews(and Kane too) would be 4th on the Oilers in 5v5 points/60 this year behind Drai, McDavid and Yamo.

I misquoted it (I knew I had it slightly off but couldn't put my finger on it). Toews is outscoring McDavid at even strength, not 5v5

I remember reading this a few days ago. Still, we are comparing Toews to McDavid. The whole point is a post said Kane is the only offensive threat. Point made is Toews has been slightly a more efficient scorer at even strength than McDavid.

Even then at 5v5, Toews is not far off with McDavid at 2.84 and Toews at 2.62

https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/one-frightening-fact-for-edmonton-oilers-fans-about-chicago-ace-jonathan-toews#

 

[McDNicks17]

I misquoted it (I knew I had it slightly off but couldn't put my finger on it). Toews is outscoring McDavid at even strength, not 5v5

I remember reading this a few days ago. Still, we are comparing Toews to McDavid. The whole point is a post said Kane is the only offensive threat. Point made is Toews has been slightly a more efficient scorer at even strength than McDavid.

Even then at 5v5, Toews is not far off with McDavid at 2.84 and Toews at 2.62

https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/one-frightening-fact-for-edmonton-oilers-fans-about-chicago-ace-jonathan-toews#

His even strength points/60 is high due to inflated stats in OT.

Doesn't really mean much with no 3v3 in the playoffs.

 

[HawkeyTalkMan]

His even strength points/60 is high due to inflated stats in OT.

i mean, if you're ignoring 4v4 too.

again, discredit all you want, Toews is still a mere .22 pts per 5v5 60min less

McDavid has played 1055 min 5v5 and put up 50 5v5 points
Toews has played 939 minutes (with 41 5v5 pts) and if you pro-rate his 2.62 5v5 per 60, that would put him at 46 5v5 points

so again to my original post, we are arguing over the McDavid essentially bettering Toews by 4 total 5v5 points all season if they are playing the same minutes to date

But you know, only have to worry about Kane out there...

 

[McDNicks17]

i mean, if you're ignoring 4v4 too.

again, discredit all you want, Toews is still a mere .22 pts per 5v5 60min less

McDavid has played 1055 min 5v5 and put up 50 5v5 points
Toews has played 939 minutes (with 41 5v5 pts) and if you pro-rate his 2.62 5v5 per 60, that would put him at 46 5v5 points

so again to my original post, we are arguing over the McDavid essentially bettering Toews by 4 total 5v5 points all season if they are playing the same minutes to date

But you know, only have to worry about Kane out there...

Unless you think Kubalik is going to keep shooting 20%, they really don't have to worry about Toews any more than they would a regular top6 forward.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

i mean, if you're ignoring 4v4 too.

again, discredit all you want, Toews is still a mere .22 pts per 5v5 60min less

McDavid has played 1055 min 5v5 and put up 50 5v5 points
Toews has played 939 minutes (with 41 5v5 pts) and if you pro-rate his 2.62 5v5 per 60, that would put him at 46 5v5 points

so again to my original post, we are arguing over the McDavid essentially bettering Toews by 4 total 5v5 points all season if they are playing the same minutes to date

But you know, only have to worry about Kane out there...

And if my aunt had balls she'd be my uncle

 

[HawkeyTalkMan]

Unless you think Kubalik is going to keep shooting 20%, they really don't have to worry about Toews.

lol K, nice rebuttal with Draisaitl shooting 19.7% and 21.6% last year like those are both eternally sustainable numbers. Ovechkins best year ever was at 15%

Kailer yamamoto is shooting at 25%

if anything I would be more worried that the shooting percentages for Draisaitl and Yamamoto dont hold up

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

lol K, nice rebuttal with Draisaitl shooting 19.7% and 21.6% last year like those are both eternally sustainable numbers. Ovechkins best year ever was at 15%

Kailer yamamoto is shooting at 25%

if anything I would be more worried that the shooting percentages for Draisaitl and Yamamoto dont hold up

I have a lot more faith that a hart candidate can maintain a 20% shooting pct over a late draft pick having a stellar year.

 

[HawkeyTalkMan]

I have a lot more faith that a hart candidate can maintain a 20% shooting pct over a late draft pick having a stellar year.

So a Calder contender as a rookie potting 30 is far less likely than a guy scoring at an unsustainable 20% shooting rate also? K. Good odds betting

But let's call him a late draft pick like that matters what he is in the league today and never played pro NA hockey before...

 

[Tobias Kahun]

So a Calder contender as a rookie potting 30 is far less likely than a guy scoring at an unsustainable 20% shooting rate also? K. Good odds betting

But let's call him a late draft pick like that matters what he is in the league today and never played pro NA hockey before...

Draisaitl has been sustaining a high shooting percentage for awhile.

 

[bellagiobob]

 

[Bryanbryoil]

Calling chicagos offense a one player team is just laughable

Between dach, Kane, strome, toews, kubalik, debrincat, and Saad there is a lot to worry about out there 5v5

And I couldn't recall exact specifics but I think toews scores 5v5 per 60 more than mcdavid this year...

I agree that it is not giving Chicago the respect that they deserve skill wise. If we don't get McDavid's line going it could be a tough series for us because of your scoring depth up front.

 

[KCC]

These playoffs are going to be tough to figure out. Which teams will be able to gel and get into game shape the fastest? If a bunch of teams (who should win) look like garbage and lose a series I won't be surprised. As long as it isn't EDM. lol

 

[Fourier]

So a Calder contender as a rookie potting 30 is far less likely than a guy scoring at an unsustainable 20% shooting rate also? K. Good odds betting

But let's call him a late draft pick like that matters what he is in the league today and never played pro NA hockey before...

I would bet that most hockey people would bet on Draisaitl to be able to sustain his scoring rate over Kubalik. There is a big difference between Art Ross winner/Hart contender and Calder Contender.

Draisaitl's shooting % is high because of the type of goals he scores. He's not a volume shooter like Ovi. Ovi will shoot from anywhere anytime. Draisaitl is much more of a stealth scorer. Kubalik is having a great season but there is not much in his background to suggest he will repeat those sorts of goal scoring numbers. Unlike a guy like DeBrincat who scored every way at every level, Kubalik has only recently shown that he has any sort of goal scorers touch. I remember him from his short stint with the Rangers. He was kind of a throw in in the deal that sent Faksa to the Wolves. Frankly he never impressed me as a guy who had much of an NHL future so its quite remarkable that at 24 he is doing what he did this year. 23 gaols and 35 5vs 5 points is pretty impressive for a rookie even at 24. If he does continue to score at the NHL level, then he would really be a fairly rare example of a kid who learns to put the puck in the net at a late age. But it would not surprise me if he never came close to scoring 30 again. 11 goals in 133 minutes playing with Kane at 5 vs 5 is not something you can repeat. If he did that over a whole season he'd easily break Gretzky's record.

That said it was as BBO says not giving the Hawks offense the credit it deserves to say that Kane is the only serious threat.

 

[belair]

Nice to see some of the boys out there today. It's starting!

Rumor has it Andreas Athanasiou somehow managed to finish -3.

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

So a Calder contender as a rookie potting 30 is far less likely than a guy scoring at an unsustainable 20% shooting rate also? K. Good odds betting

But let's call him a late draft pick like that matters what he is in the league today and never played pro NA hockey before...

Yes...

I should add that the hawks have lots of weapons for sure but your comparisons are ridiculous.

 

[HawkeyTalkMan]

Draisaitl has been sustaining a high shooting percentage for awhile.

So draisaitl will shoot 20% for the foreseeable future and give ovechkin and Gretzky a run for all time goal scoring?

 

[HawkeyTalkMan]

I would bet that most hockey people would bet on Draisaitl to be able to sustain his scoring rate over Kubalik. There is a big difference between Art Ross winner/Hart contender and Calder Contender.

Draisaitl's shooting % is high because of the type of goals he scores. He's not a volume shooter like Ovi. Ovi will shoot from anywhere anytime. Draisaitl is much more of a stealth scorer. Kubalik is having a great season but there is not much in his background to suggest he will repeat those sorts of goal scoring numbers. Unlike a guy like DeBrincat who scored every way at every level, Kubalik has only recently shown that he has any sort of goal scorers touch. I remember him from his short stint with the Rangers. He was kind of a throw in in the deal that sent Faksa to the Wolves. Frankly he never impressed me as a guy who had much of an NHL future so its quite remarkable that at 24 he is doing what he did this year. 23 gaols and 35 5vs 5 points is pretty impressive for a rookie even at 24. If he does continue to score at the NHL level, then he would really be a fairly rare example of a kid who learns to put the puck in the net at a late age. But it would not surprise me if he never came close to scoring 30 again. 11 goals in 133 minutes playing with Kane at 5 vs 5 is not something you can repeat. If he did that over a whole season he'd easily break Gretzky's record.

That said it was as BBO says not giving the Hawks offense the credit it deserves to say that Kane is the only serious threat.

So you're using your eye test from when he was in juniors to evaluate what he's doing in the NHL now?

 

[bone]

probably because that was false.

Actually it's true, and Toews EVP/60 min was higher than McDavid. He was actually closer to Draisaitls than he was to McDavids.

editted after continuing the thread seeing this was about 5 on 5 instead of EVP, but the point is still valid. Toews is still a threat in the most common part of the game.

The later argument about that being because of a Kubalik's shooting percentage. Don't you think the veteran offensive producer feeding him passes might just be propping up said late draft pick who had no showing to be this type of scorer before in his career, instead of the other way around. We can't undersell Toews.

 

[FlameChampion]

I really think this series comes down to two factors for us.

1) Can we get the McDavid line going? We know that the RNH-Drai-Yama line is awesome, if they put them together. If the McDavid line is going too, its going to be extremely difficult for the Hawks to contain the Oilers especially with their defense.
2) How will the Oilers goalies perform? In a 5 game series, if the goaltenders arent on their game, it can be over pretty quick.

The Hawks are still a dangerous team. Kane scares the crap out of me, when he has the puck. A lot of the Hawks forwards had dissapointing years, but it doesnt mean they will have a bad playoffs.

Crawford is a bit of a question mark also, but he had a fairly good year. Similar to Koskinen. I almost wonder if 2 goalies is going to hurt us going into the play-in round. I think Tippett is going to start Smith. I personally liked Koskinen better this year but Smith does have really strong career playoff numbers. Hawks having one guy they need to go to, may be an advantage in a 5 game series. My biggest fear is that Smith struggles game 1 and then they decide to give him another game, which he struggles, and then they go with a rusty Koskinen and he struggles and the series is basically over. Or Smith struggles game 1, Koskinen struggles game 2 and we are already down in a hole.

 

[McDNicks17]

Actually it's true, and Toews EVP/60 min was higher than McDavid. He was actually closer to Draisaitls than he was to McDavids.

editted after continuing the thread seeing this was about 5 on 5 instead of EVP, but the point is still valid. Toews is still a threat in the most common part of the game.

Like I posted earlier, his even strength numbers are heavily skewed by OT numbers. Without 3v3 in the playoffs, the even strength difference doesn't mean much.

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]