Post-Game Talk: Series Discussion: Stars @ Blues

[Brian39]

I think we outplay them in 4 of the first 5 games of the series.

How that translates to wins is up to Bishop. If he plays like he did against Nashville, it will be a very tight series. If he gets outplayed by Binny, the series is over quickly. I'm very happy with Binny, but I think it is pretty unlikely that he outplays Bishop. Bishop should win the Vezina this year and is has proven that he doesn't fold in the playoffs.

I've got the Blues in 6 but could easily see it at 5 or 7 depending on exactly how well Bishop plays.

 

[67Blues]

Huge Stars fan here, from years and years of cheering...

This topic is very enlightening. With an exceptional voice here and there, it appears to be a resounding Blues in 5 or 6 cakewalk from the majority of Blues messengers. You've only got to beat "1" competent scoring line and a hot, but frail goalie! Who'd'a thought it'd be so easy?!

This topic gives me the confidence and grit I'll need to sustain a moderate heart level through a long series. Nobody is skating to a 4-0 or 4-1 sheet of frosting. I can't wait to get to the arena for game 3 back in Dallas!

Addendum: A "Blue" mentioned several pages back that this team will be easier to beat than the 2016 team. Blues fans should thank Sequin for getting his calf muscle sliced during the last few minutes of the final game of that season. His constant PP sniper scoring was sorely missed in the playoffs, otherwise, that series might not have gone 7 games. Oh, and we had Kari back then.

Addendum II: Here's to an upcoming battle. I didn't care who Dallas faced. If a team is going to skate the Cup, they have to "beat" the other big boys on the block! St. Louis is obviously one of the big boys, but they just might go home black and blue, but none of us knows just yet. That's why they play the games! The NHL Playoffs are the best!

...wisdom

Shouldn't you and the other 5 Dallas HF posters be in your own thread forums?

 

[mk80]

Stars are one of those teams that don't allow opposing fans in. Lol.

Blues fans living in Missouri or Illinois not allowed buy tickets to games in Dallas

I just bought them on Stubhub. F*** the Stars they can't stop me from going! 3 tickets on the Blues attack twice end!

 

[Alklha]

I just bought them on Stubhub. F*** the Stars they can't stop me from going! 3 tickets on the Blues attack twice end!

Is Stubhub all electronic tickets now?

 

[mk80]

Is Stubhub all electronic tickets now?

I believe so, but I'm not entirely sure. Mine are on my phone.

 

[Note Worthy]

Is Stubhub all electronic tickets now?

I believe they are, yes.

 

[Brian39]

Posted in the GDT, but things have a tendency to get overlooked there:

There is a chance that NBCSN will air the conclusion of the BOS/CBJ game rather than switching to the Blues for puck drop in the STL area. They will definitely be doing that in most cities. In case there is overlap, it appears that the plan is to air the start of the Blues game on NHL Network, which is only available in about 11 households nationwide.

If that happens, don't panic. Remember that each and every one of you with access to NBCSN (but not the NHL Network) can use your cable/satellite credentials to legally stream the Blues game tonight even if the local NBCSN channel is still showing the end of the BOS/CBJ game.

https://www.nbcsports.com/live

You can log in through your TV provider and then select the Blues game and stream on your computer. If you have a Roku/FireTV/AppleTV/etc, there is an NBC Sports app that will allow you to do the same thing. I don't think the frame rate is quite as good as TV (or some of the unauthorized streams which hit 60fps), but it is a completely legal way to not get screwed if NBC prioritizes another game over the local one.

 

[LGB]

2nd round odds from a collection of models. Blues favored by all but one, but that one happens to be the most accurate model so far. I think that particular model (from @IneffectiveMath on Twitter) weighs goaltending pretty heavily and that is why the Stars are favored. Interestingly, the Stars actually have the highest Cup odds by his model and the Blues are at #2. There was a pretty minuscule gap in accuracy between the top and second most accurate model though (from moneypuck.com), and that model gives us a relatively high 59.6% chance to advance.

 

[LGB]

Really think we need to change something on the 4th line. Fabbri got a goal tonight which was nice, but they were in there own zone almost every time they were on the ice letting up 9 corsi against and only 2 for. 28.85 CF% and 18.90 xGF% overall in their 4 games together so far, that's awful.

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

Really think we need to change something on the 4th line. Fabbri got a goal tonight which was nice, but they were in there own zone almost every time they were on the ice letting up 9 corsi against and only 2 for. 28.85 CF% and 18.90 xGF% overall in their 4 games together so far, that's awful.

Run this:

Perron O’Reilly Tarasenko
Schwartz Schenn Sundqvist
Fabbri Bozak Thomas
Maroon Barbashev Steen

Run the bottom-6 like two third lines

 

[Celtic Note]

Really think we need to change something on the 4th line. Fabbri got a goal tonight which was nice, but they were in there own zone almost every time they were on the ice letting up 9 corsi against and only 2 for. 28.85 CF% and 18.90 xGF% overall in their 4 games together so far, that's awful.

How are Steen’s numbers. He kills plays so often.

 

[LGB]

Run this:

Perron O’Reilly Tarasenko
Schwartz Schenn Sundqvist
Fabbri Bozak Thomas
Maroon Barbashev Steen

Run the bottom-6 like two third lines

Not sure why we would want to break up the third line, and moving Fabbri up is about the last thing I'd do.

How are Steen’s numbers. He kills plays so often.

Steen has the best CF% and xGF% since this line has been formed, but Barbashev has the best over the entirety of the playoffs. Sanford also had better numbers than Fabbri. I think you see where I'm going with this, and I know people aren't going to like it, but Fabbri is the guy who needs to come out IMO. The fourth line with Sanford had a 40.00 CF% and 44.27 xGF%. I wouldn't put Sanford back in because individually he was pretty poor in those three games, but I'd give Blais or MacEachern a shot in Fabbri's place.

 

[HighNote]

Steen has the best CF% and xGF% since this line has been formed, but Barbashev has the best over the entirety of the playoffs. Sanford also had better numbers than Fabbri. I think you see where I'm going with this, and I know people aren't going to like it, but Fabbri is the guy who needs to come out IMO. The fourth line with Sanford had a 40.00 CF% and 44.27 xGF%. I wouldn't put Sanford back in because individually he was pretty poor in those three games, but I'd give Blais or MacEachern a shot in Fabbri's place.

no

 

[Meatball]

no

Hey, 2 down 1 to go.

Edit: You predicted 3 goals for Tarasenko this series.

 

[Robb_K]

2nd round odds from a collection of models. Blues favored by all but one, but that one happens to be the most accurate model so far. I think that particular model (from @IneffectiveMath on Twitter) weighs goaltending pretty heavily and that is why the Stars are favored. Interestingly, the Stars actually have the highest Cup odds by his model and the Blues are at #2. There was a pretty minuscule gap in accuracy between the top and second most accurate model though (from moneypuck.com), and that model gives us a relatively high 59.6% chance to advance.

2nd round odds from a collection of models. Blues favored by all but one, but that one happens to be the most accurate model so far. I think that particular model (from @IneffectiveMath on Twitter) weighs goaltending pretty heavily and that is why the Stars are favored. Interestingly, the Stars actually have the highest Cup odds by his model and the Blues are at #2. There was a pretty minuscule gap in accuracy between the top and second most accurate model though (from moneypuck.com), and that model gives us a relatively high 59.6% chance to advance.

Based on what we saw last night from Binnington, and, especially Bishop, I'd say that if that model weighs goaltending heavier, The Blues should be favoured even more by that model.

 

[sfvega]

no

But Corsi!

 

[HighNote]

Hey, 2 down 1 to go.

Edit: You predicted 3 goals for Tarasenko this series.

Hey now, I said at LEAST 3.

But really, I don't like to make specific predictions like exact amount of goals scored. When I say at least 3, I mean that I'd be surprised if he got any less than that. I figured Tarasenko would be a key guy in this series, but it's still early.

 

[LGB]

But Corsi!

Yes, I know, using statistics to evaluate players is completely ridiculous, but competently evaluating all five players in real-time while watching the game as a fan is perfectly reasonable.

 

[HighNote]

But Corsi!

I do see the value in advanced stats, but history tells me that Fabbri is clutch against the Stars until proven otherwise. You could maybe justify taking him out of the lineup round 1, but I still thought he was really playing well out there. Maybe that line isn't great as a unit, but I think Fabbri has been pretty good if you look at his play individually.

Personally, I don't touch the top 3 lines, I think they are perfect the way they are. Fabbri will stay in.

 

[HighNote]

Yes, I know, using statistics to evaluate players is completely ridiculous, but competently evaluating all five players in real-time while watching the game as a fan is perfectly reasonable.

I'm not so sure we have a large enough sample size. They've been together, what, 4 games? And they probably average around 8 maybe 9 minutes at even strength, if that. The bigger the sample size, the more accurate advanced stats become. And if it's our 4th line we're having issues with, that's a good thing, they're already on the ice the least amount of time.

 

[LGB]

I'm not so sure we have a large enough sample size. They've been together, what, 4 games? And they probably average around 8 maybe 9 minutes at even strength, if that. The bigger the sample size, the more accurate advanced stats become. And if it's our 4th line we're having issues with, that's a good thing, they're already on the ice the least amount of time.

It's a small sample size, but the numbers are very, very bad. Maybe if they're at 30% xG I'd dismiss it as a small sample size, but they're at 18.9%.

 

[sfvega]

Yes, I know, using statistics to evaluate players is completely ridiculous, but competently evaluating all five players in real-time while watching the game as a fan is perfectly reasonable.

I see the value of advanced analytics at times, but some of the biggest deterrents of analytics are the proponents for it and how all-in they can be. In this case, Fabbri took the spot of Sanford (who I preferred) while some wanted Mac or Blais. It is a position that was polarizing and that a lot of people were watching closely. If Fabbri had the same defensive breakdowns as he did in the regular season, he would likely be out again. If he didn't produce offensively, the talk would go back to Mac or Blais. But he's been by far our most dangerous 4th liner since he was put into the line-up. I was against it, and I'm eating crow now. I have zero expectation for the coaching staff to sit Fabbri on Saturday either, so I guess that's more than just me who thinks he's been good enough to stay.

 

[HolyJumpin]

The only reason the corsi was bad for the Blues was that they got outshot by a team that was down 3-1 with 15 or so minutes to go in the game. They were doing better than the Stars in the second, advanced stats wise.

 

[Robb_K]

I think we outplay them in 4 of the first 5 games of the series.

How that translates to wins is up to Bishop. If he plays like he did against Nashville, it will be a very tight series. If he gets outplayed by Binny, the series is over quickly. I'm very happy with Binny, but I think it is pretty unlikely that he outplays Bishop. Bishop should win the Vezina this year and is has proven that he doesn't fold in the playoffs.

I've got the Blues in 6 but could easily see it at 5 or 7 depending on exactly how well Bishop plays.

I think he outplayed Bishop by quite a bit last night. I hope that continues.

 

[HighNote]

It's a small sample size, but the numbers are very, very bad. Maybe if they're at 30% xG I'd dismiss it as a small sample size, but they're at 18.9%.

I guess I just don't see it as being that big of an issue. Fabbri's a proven difference maker in the playoffs, and specifically against the Stars. And with the top 3 lines being untouchable at the moment (in my opinion) you're only real option is to sit Fabbri, and I don't see a guy like Sanford, Blais, or MacEachern making more of a difference than Fabbri is making. Fabbri has more experience and points in the playoffs than all 3 of those combined (Sanford has 0 points in 7 games and the other two have 0 playoff experience), and in the end he has more potential to be a difference maker for us now than the other 3. The guy has 9 points in 8 playoff games against Dallas. He ain't going nowhere, at least I hope not.