Pre-Game Talk: Series Discussion: Round 1 - Kings @ Oilers II: The Rematch

[ilovetheshowlost]

Is anyone else nervous about this series?

Like yeah the Oilers have been playing really well but it’s a bit unnerving that seemingly everyone has us beating LA and potentially going on a deep run.

Maybe it’s just the Oilers PTSD in me but I really hope they don’t blow this. God that would be embarrassing.

I am definitely nervous!

Kings are a good team - but more importantly it feels like a bad matchup stylistically for us. That being said, we did win the last two games.. so who knows! I think it comes down to how well Skinner plays, and who scores the first goal. Kings seem to be a much better team playing with the lead, as opposed to a team trying to catch up.

If McDavid, Draisaitl, Kane and Hyman are as good as they were last year... we should be okay. If they get shut down a bit more, I am expecting a stressful series!

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

Is anyone else nervous about this series?

Like yeah the Oilers have been playing really well but it’s a bit unnerving that seemingly everyone has us beating LA and potentially going on a deep run.

Maybe it’s just the Oilers PTSD in me but I really hope they don’t blow this. God that would be embarrassing.

I’m nervous as hell.

 

[Trafalgar Sadge Law]

Lets review the series last year:

Nurse injured badly, tough series.
No Doughty, big loss for LA.
Game 1: First goal LAK, Smith gaffe leads to GWG late. 4-3 final
Game 2: First goal EDM, 6-0 final
Game 3: First goal EDM, up 5-0, 8-2 final
Game 4: First goal LAK, Keith accidentally tips in second LAK goal, 4-0 final, ENG
Game 5: First goal LAK, Drai scores 2 in 3rd to tie it, Kempe blows by Keith for OT winner, 5-4 final
Game 6: First goal EDM - 97 scores early, 4-2 final ENG
Game 7: First goal EDM, 97 scores late, tight checking, 2-0 final

Oilers gone: Keith, Russell, Barrie, Puljuujarvi, Archibald, Kassian, Smith

Oilers in: Ekholm, Desharnais, Broberg, Bjugstad, Kostin, Janmark, Skinner

The upgrade from Keith to Ekholm and Desharnais from Barrie (defensively) is huge. Skinner is an upgrade on Smith. The forwards are all upgrades.

Kings out: Maata, Stetcher, Brown, Athanisiou, Lemieux, Quick
Kings in: Doughty, Gavrikov, Fiala, Vilardi, Arvidsson, MacEwan, Korpisalo, Colpey

The Kings are much improved on D. Fiala's health is questionable but they have better Goaltending.

The team that scored first last year won each game. I expect similar results this time. The Oilers would do well to win game 1 this time, then put the heat on in game 2.

The Oilers have 4 of the top 6 forwards in this series. I think Ekholm and Nurse are right there with Doughty, but younger.

Oilers in 5. It feels like McDavid's and Draisaitl's time is now. The supporting cast is there.

Getting rid of Duncan Keith alone should be an extra 2 or 3 playoff wins. Two of the absolute worst playoff series in Oilers history vs LA and Colorado with a nice 0 even strength points and -4 in 11 games. All while playingg extremely sheltered minutes mostly against bottom 6 forwards and simultaneously screwing over Nurse who should never be playing vs top lines with a torn hip flexor (and hilariously still outperformed Keith across the board), and still led the team in even strength goals against while being dead last on the team in even strength goal differential, including multiple grievous errors on game winning goals against and an own goal. Worse than Eberle vs Anaheim. Worse than Jones vs Chicago. Worse than Bear vs Winnipeg. So glad he's no longer on the team.

Adding Ekholm, a buffed Bouchard, and a full health, less overworked Nurse should add another 2 or 3 playoff wins. Ekholm gives us a second pairing that we can deploy against opposing top 6 forwards which we did not have the option to do last playoffs due to having Duncan Keith, and also brings the best out of Bouchard, allowing him to activate more in transition/pinch more on offense knowing he now has a beast who can cover for mistakes instead of the worst transition defender in the NHL. Ekholm himself gives us a great transition/underrated offensive option that can help pump up the bottom 6 which was an absolute disaster last playoffs. Nurse at full health is capable of things like 62 minutes 0 goals against in playoffs and I fully expect him to be a tower of power again now that he can play his game with "normal" top pairing matchups without being held back by the crippling injury that prevented him from pivoting/skating backwards properly.

Ceci is playing worse than he did last season as is Kulak, and VD is probs a wash on Barrie overall impact wise but fits our team better. Overall I think we can get an extra 4-5 wins this playoffs just off the defensive personnel changes alone which hopefully looks something like beating LA in 5 and turning that 4-0 vs Colorado into a 2-2.

Our bottom 6 is functioning much better, partly due to getting rid of the two main dead weights (Kass and Archibald) and partly due to the defense being better and able to facilitate them at even strength. Even if McDrai don't keep up the ridiculous >2PPG pace they did last playoffs, and by extension Kane/Hyman's torrid scoring pace, I think we'll probs keep up offensively with points chipped in from a Bjugstad/Kostin/Janmark on top of what Kailer/McLeod gave us last season, and hopefully Foegele doesn't have as disastrous a playoffs as he did last year.

Overall as long as the goaltending holds up (Skinner on paper should be more consistent than Smith but rookie goalie and all) we should be able to make it to WCF and play on even terms with Colorado this time with them losing some key players, and us adding some impact players and shedding some dead weight (Keith/Kass/Archibald). Whether the team goes further than that will depend on if Skinner plays at a similar level to how he played in regular season or if he can take another step forward and go full 2015-16 Matt Murray.

 

[Thomas Tatar]

I am definitely nervous!

Kings are a good team - but more importantly it feels like a bad matchup stylistically for us. That being said, we did win the last two games.. so who knows! I think it comes down to how well Skinner plays, and who scores the first goal. Kings seem to be a much better team playing with the lead, as opposed to a team trying to catch up.

If McDavid, Draisaitl, Kane and Hyman are as good as they were last year... we should be okay. If they get shut down a bit more, I am expecting a stressful series!

I find this interesting. You mention it’s a bad matchup for us stylistically and observe we won the last two games. What sticks out to me is McDavid saying after the second game that the Oilers know how to beat the Kings style.

The road to Stanley will present many different styles, but it gives me so much hope when Connor says something like that. It tells me that Woodcroft et al are earning their paycheques and the team buys in to their tactics for each team they play. The proof is in those last two games and I love in Woodcrofts post game presser after the Sharks that he could care less about the division and more about learning which team they play first so they can get to work.

On top of that the boys seem serious this year, I think for once after all the playoff disappointment they have faced they actually know what it will take from beginning of puck drop. They are poised for a run barring incredibly bad luck (I.e. injuries, bad goaltending our side our unreal goaltending on theirs).

 

[GMofOilers]

There comes a time in a all times great player (McDavid) that he just wont be denied. Im pretty sure that year is this year. They have a deep team out side of McDavid and Drai.

Kane, Hyman, Nuge, Nurse, Elkhom, these guys are high end support players that can change games by themselves.

I just dont see how we dont handle the Kings and Vegas, the Avs, that series if it happens will be a lot closer but until then im not to worried.

 

[TB12]

I have a weird feeling Vinny D will score a big goal in the ploffs for the boys. Puck will bounce off the boards and he’ll step into one from the point. A timely and very unlikely contribution.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

We should be nervous, the Kings are a good team.

 

[Gordian Knot]

Feeling really confident. Our guys got this, predicted Oilers in 5 because I just feel refs will hand one win for LA just because.

Need to live in the heat of the moment like this guy.

 

[FlameChampion]

Who usually plays RW on the Janmark/Bjugstad/Kostin line?

 

[guymez]

Is anyone else nervous about this series?

Like yeah the Oilers have been playing really well but it’s a bit unnerving that seemingly everyone has us beating LA and potentially going on a deep run.

Maybe it’s just the Oilers PTSD in me but I really hope they don’t blow this. God that would be embarrassing.

The only thing that makes me nervous is not knowing how the games will be reffed. If the Refs dont call the hooking, holding and interference then I will be concerned/nervous.

If they do call that stuff then I think this will be a short series.

 

[RalphKing]

The more I think about this series the more I think McDavid is going to get to even another level this year. I think we win in 4 and McDavid has something absurd like 12-15pts in the series.

 

[OilerTyler]

Who usually plays RW on the Janmark/Bjugstad/Kostin line?

Janmark does

 

[Gordy Elbows]

It will be AI soon anyways.

I kid.

I think?

Hopefully, AI can reproduce the Rod Philips experience….I’m in!

 

[Fixed to Ruin]

 

[Trafalgar Sadge Law]

Who usually plays RW on the Janmark/Bjugstad/Kostin line?

Janmark is the guy listed as RW on the lineup card usually but we're in 2023 and forward position isn't a thing anymore. Exact wing doesn't really matter beyond the initial faceoff due to how much players are switching on the cycle both offensively and defensively, and how much cross ice movement happens during zone entries/zone exits/dump ins etc. Even defensemen are switching with forwards all the time and pressuring at the blueline defensively or carrying the puck behind opposing net to center a pass etc. Same reason why so many teams just have like 6+ centers in the lineup nowadays b/c centers tend to be more flexible movement wise. We've had lineups this year with legit 7 centers (McDavid, Draisaitl, RNH, McLeod, Ryan, Holloway/Bjugstad, Shore). Could even run 8 if there was enough cap space to play both Holloway and Bjugstad.

 

[Nunymare]

 

[Faelko]

Watching Leaf fans Duthie and Dreger pick the Oilers is the ultimate kiss of ….lol

 

[bellagiobob]

Is anyone else nervous about this series?

Like yeah the Oilers have been playing really well but it’s a bit unnerving that seemingly everyone has us beating LA and potentially going on a deep run.

Maybe it’s just the Oilers PTSD in me but I really hope they don’t blow this. God that would be embarrassing.

I prefer to call it cautious optimism. I respect the opponent, they are a very good team who could very well win the series. But I believe that our team is better. That's the beauty of the playoffs, it should be gut churning, a roller coaster of emotions, etc. But to get the full experience you need to get on board and believe in your team at the beginning. Let’s face it, we are in a type of relationship with the Oilers. Like any relationship, if you go in just trying not to get hurt, to minimize your pain, you might not feel the same pain when it's over, or in this case losing in the playoffs, but also won't feel the same high if it is successful. I'm all in, willing to get hurt again. The 2006 pain lasted for years, but was still worth it, as I have so many great memories from that playoff run. I also have the memories of the first 5 cups, which provided such indescribable euphoria and joy, that I hope you guys get to experience this year.

 

[frag2]

Watching Leaf fans Duthie and Dreger pick the Oilers is the ultimate kiss of ….lol

Duthie's actually a Sens fan FWIW. But lol Dregs

 

[Mowzie]

My main concerns are LA looking for retribution on McDavid and taking him out of the series, Kane taking ill timed penalties, and officiating.

If this game is called down the middle and we remain relatively healthy, I think this goes 5 or 6.

 

[Drivesaitl]

I prefer to call it cautious optimism. I respect the opponent, they are a very good team who could very well win the series. But I believe that our team is better. That's the beauty of the playoffs, it should be gut churning, a roller coaster of emotions, etc. But to get the full experience you need to get on baord and believe in your team at the beginning. Let;s face it, we are in a type of relationship with the Oilers. Like any relationship, if you go in just trying not to get hurt, to minimize your pain, you might not feel the same pain when it's over, or in this case losing in the playoffs, but also won't feel the same high if it is successful. I'm all in, willing to get hurt again. The 2006 pain lasted for years, but was still worth it, as I have so many great memories from that playoff run. I also have the memories of the first 5 cups, which provided such indescribable euphoria and joy, that I hope you guys get to experience this year.

Good post. Covers some bases. I've been all in for years really. Having an actual GM allowed me to have some faith in where the org and team are headed. Seeing continual improvement in lineup backed that up. From the Barrie acquisition on I've been on board that the org is making moves to improve the lineup. Getting Kane, Hyman, Ekholm, those are players that complete cores of teams. These are core players. Its quite something to add to core like this. To a team that already has McDrai, Nuge, Nurse, etc. The quiet additions also help. Kostin, Bjugstad, Janmark, Ryan, Foegele. Our bottomsix is light years better than it was a few years ago.

In contrast the Kings go into the playoffs with Fiala out of lineup. He didn't even skate this weekend. They possibly have Vilardi and Edler coming back but neither close to ideally ready. Vilardi was wearing a no contact jersey just yesterday. He'll be coming in cold, hurt, and he hasn't had contact game experience in several weeks. Kings have Danault who is probably hurt, looks like a shadow of what he was last season. Moore has been hurt all year and in and out of lineup. Iafallo same deal. A lot of the meat and potatoes that was in Kings lineup last season playing hard is playing hurt now. Sure they got Doughty back and Kopitar and Kempe are having solid seasons. but they lack the depth they have displayed at times with Fiala out and Vilardi on the mend.

Kings fans are pretty worried about the matchup right now. Kings with their injuries have been having trouble for a few weeks now. Seems like the wind went out of their sails toward end of season. You never know but just going off where the teams were to end season the Oilers are heavily favored.

 

[iCanada]

My main concerns are LA looking for retribution on McDavid and taking him out of the series, Kane taking ill timed penalties, and officiating.

If this game is called down the middle and we remain relatively healthy, I think this goes 5 or 6.

I've said this a couple times, but there is no way the Kings want to go down that path with the Oilers. Too small. Too soft.

It's also just not in McClellan's blood. We're talking about a guy that put a leash on Nurse and Kassian.

 

[VainGretzky]

I have been reading up and getting ready for this series

 

[BoldNewLettuce]

heres the thing....

what if you are less likely to get a concussion when you are within a goal or on special teams.....?

 

[Zenos]

There comes a time in a all times great player (McDavid) that he just wont be denied. Im pretty sure that year is this year. They have a deep team out side of McDavid and Drai.

Kane, Hyman, Nuge, Nurse, Elkhom, these guys are high end support players that can change games by themselves.

I just dont see how we dont handle the Kings and Vegas, the Avs, that series if it happens will be a lot closer but until then im not to worried.

I cautiously agree. Not that I take the other teams lightly, but this Oilers squad is really just on a roll. A historic season from McDavid, career years from Drai, Nuge and Hyms; Kane slowly rounding back into form, and a handful of bottom sixers who all put up at least 10 goals. Top to bottom, it's the best and deepest Oilers forward group since... 1990 (Mess, Kurri, Anderson, Tikk, Simpson, kid line)? Maybe even better than that one? Either way, it's scary good.

And Ekholm has been such a revelation. Man has he delivered and more. Doesn't hurt that Bouchard and Nurse both look to be trending (back) upwards lateley either.

My only real concern is how the goaltending stacks up. Skinner's been good, but he's a rookie with 0 playoff games to his name. Still, he's young and in his prime. We've inexperienced goalies go red-hot at this time of year before. Lets hope he's up to the challenge!