Proposal: Sens' highway to very fast rebuild

[Spirit of 67]

Unfortunately the selection of Brady Tkachuk pretty much seals next year's pick's fate.
It would take a lot for Colorado to return it. And, as much as I love Mark Stone, he doesn't get it done.

 

[Skobel24]

Better make sure you do the Colorado deal first.

No way do they accept just Mark Stone for what could be the No. 1 Overall Pick.

Mark Stone is a young, legitimate #1 winger with an excellent two way game. If you select 1st overall you'd be thrilled to wind up with a player of his caliber.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Get the feeling that the most hand in glove fit for Duchene is Montreal.
Extend him 5 or so years
Duch +/? for Habs 2018 + 2019 1sts + Juulsen +

Nah... We will entertain to sign him as a UFA if he becomes UFA. Habs are not trading any futures to help our team be a middle of the pack team. It's just stupid for the Habs to trade any futures at this stage.

What does Duchene do for the Habs? Turn us into a playoff team but we lose in the 1st round? That is likely best case. I pass on Duchene. Sens made their bed with acquiring him, time to sleep in it now. I don't see any team stepping up with a ton of futures to acquire him as a pending UFA. And the sign and trades are very rare. Duchene is in the drivers seat

 

[Silky Johnson]

Mark Stone is a young, legitimate #1 winger with an excellent two way game. If you select 1st overall you'd be thrilled to wind up with a player of his caliber.

Agreed! More importantly and oft repeated here, the Ottawa 2019 is very unlikely to be first overall! Even if the Sens place last. The only reason the pick wouldn't be traded straight up is that Colorado would need to add.

 

[Spirit of 67]

Mark Stone is a young, legitimate #1 winger with an excellent two way game. If you select 1st overall you'd be thrilled to wind up with a player of his caliber.

But you have a chance to get someone even better.
I have to figure it's a top 3 pick. You should be able to get a Mark Stone with a top 3 pick.
Or much, much better.

 

[bernmeister]

Nah... We will entertain to sign him as a UFA if he becomes UFA. Habs are not trading any futures to help our team be a middle of the pack team. It's just stupid for the Habs to trade any futures at this stage.

What does Duchene do for the Habs? Turn us into a playoff team but we lose in the 1st round? That is likely best case. I pass on Duchene. Sens made their bed with acquiring him, time to sleep in it now. I don't see any team stepping up with a ton of futures to acquire him as a pending UFA. And the sign and trades are very rare. Duchene is in the drivers seat

Duchene is in driver's seat agreed.
He is a risk, conceded.
He is also a still young 1C
so the theory is known commodity upfront vs what is behind the draft door, wait and develop, which may or may not be better.

not a clear cut scenario either way.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Duchene is in driver's seat agreed.
He is a risk, conceded.
He is also a still young 1C
so the theory is known commodity upfront vs what is behind the draft door, wait and develop, which may or may not be better.

not a clear cut scenario either way.

Duchene was a good fit for the Habs in the 2017 playoffs but not any more. Sens will move him at the deadline for a 1st and other pieces. There will be a few teams that will want to add him for a playoff run. It will also be interesting to watch his production on that roster this season too. Maybe the Sens prefer to move him now but I just don't see a team getting desperate at this stage for him.

 

[stempniaksen]

But you have a chance to get someone even better.
I have to figure it's a top 3 pick. You should be able to get a Mark Stone with a top 3 pick.
Or much, much better.

That's statistically inaccurate though.

In all likelihood the pick finished between 4 and 10 and honestly, at that point you're probably better off with Mark Stone.

 

[GoldiFox]

But you have a chance to get someone even better.
I have to figure it's a top 3 pick. You should be able to get a Mark Stone with a top 3 pick.
Or much, much better.

If Ottawa finishes 0-82-0 then they still have a 50% chance of selecting #4 Overall. With only an ~20% chance of selecting #1. So it would be inaccurate to say one should "have to figure it's a top-3 pick". It is a coin flip for a top-3 pick.

 

[topshelf15]

First, I'm not a Sens fan and don't really care what they get in return. Just made a suggestion that I thought was fair, you know, considering we're talking about the best defenceman in the league (when healthy).

Second, I'm pretty sure the Sens still hold some of the cards as EK is still under contract for another year. If the offers are going to be pathetic "rental" type packages, I'm sure they are completely fine with keeping him until the deadline and entertaining a greater amount of suitors.



Ya, good luck luring EK in free agency while extending Kucherov and Point. Girardi and Coburn off the books might handle Kucherov's raise, where's Points' money coming from, let alone the 10-11 to bring in EK?

After we trade him to Toronro at the TDL.....

 

[Spirit of 67]

That's statistically inaccurate though.

In all likelihood the pick finished between 4 and 10 and honestly, at that point you're probably better off with Mark Stone.

What do you mean it's inaccurate? It's my guess. Just like you're guessing. I can equally say your guess is inaccurate.

 

[Spirit of 67]

If Ottawa finishes 0-82-0 then they still have a 50% chance of selecting #4 Overall. With only an ~20% chance of selecting #1. So it would be inaccurate to say one should "have to figure it's a top-3 pick". It is a coin flip for a top-3 pick.

Good luck.

 

[The Ugly Truth]

You are definitely underrating stone and overrating prospects. Go back to the 4th-8th pick from 5-10 years ago, there are two players I would say are clearly better than Stone (Pietrangelo, Ekman-Larsson). There are a significantly higher number of busts or semi-busts. The players then are just as hyped as the players now.

Stone is a late blooming beast that keeps getting better.

Again, we are not talking about previous drafts. But since you bring it up, someone in this thread already posted a list of some recent 4-8 OA picks and I added the past 2 years.


"From 2010 when Stone was drafted to 2015 (so we have a pretty good idea what these players are looking like now):

1. 2010 4-8 Ryan Johansen, Nino Niederreiter, Brett Connolly, Jeff Skinner, Alexander Burmistrov
   
   
2. 2011 4-8 Adam Larsson, Ryan Strome, Mike Zibanejad, Mark Scheifele, Sean Couturier
   
   
3. 2012 4-8 Griffin Reinhart, Morgan Rielly, Hampus Lindholm, Mathew Dumba, Derrick Pouliot
   
   
4. 2013 4-8 Seth Jones, Elias Lindholm, Sean Monahan, Darnell Nurse, Rasmus Ristolainen
   
   
5. 2014 4-8 Sam Bennett, Michael Dal Colle, Jake Virtanen, Hayden Fleury, William Nylander"

There's a lot of players that were drafted 4-8 OA that I would take over Stone. 2010-15 almost 50% of players drafted 4-8 OA were "better" than Stone. Past 2 years 80% were better.

 

[Silky Johnson]

What do you mean it's inaccurate? It's my guess. Just like you're guessing. I can equally say your guess is inaccurate.

You misunderstand math. His guess isn't trying to be accurate in the specific way you are. It is absolutely unlikely for the pick to be first overall or even top three. It is reasonable to guess that the sens come somewhere in the bottom 5. You "can equally say your guess is inaccurate" you would just be wrong.

 

[Silky Johnson]

Again, we are not talking about previous drafts. But since you bring it up, someone in this thread already posted a list of some recent 4-8 OA picks and I added the past 2 years.


"From 2010 when Stone was drafted to 2015 (so we have a pretty good idea what these players are looking like now):

1. 2010 4-8 Ryan Johansen, Nino Niederreiter, Brett Connolly, Jeff Skinner, Alexander Burmistrov
   
   
2. 2011 4-8 Adam Larsson, Ryan Strome, Mike Zibanejad, Mark Scheifele, Sean Couturier
   
   
3. 2012 4-8 Griffin Reinhart, Morgan Rielly, Hampus Lindholm, Mathew Dumba, Derrick Pouliot
   
   
4. 2013 4-8 Seth Jones, Elias Lindholm, Sean Monahan, Darnell Nurse, Rasmus Ristolainen
   
   
5. 2014 4-8 Sam Bennett, Michael Dal Colle, Jake Virtanen, Hayden Fleury, William Nylander"

There's a lot of players that were drafted 4-8 OA that I would take over Stone. 2010-15 almost 50% of players drafted 4-8 OA were "better" than Stone. Past 2 years 80% were better.

I don't think a single highlighted player outside of Schiefele is clearly better than Stone. Reasonable people can disagree on these specific players. This list highlights to me that Stone is a much better than average pick in that range.

Also, the reason we bring up previous drafts is to point out that it is likely that some of the players within the 80% you think are better than Stone will bust or at least not live up to your lofty expectations. The last two years are not outliers, they just haven't had time to be properly evaluated. You suffer from the same delusion that many on this board do in that you drastically value "what might" be over "what is".

 

[The Ugly Truth]

I don't think a single highlighted player outside of Schiefele is clearly better than Stone. Reasonable people can disagree on these specific players. This list highlights to me that Stone is a much better than average pick in that range.

Also, the reason we bring up previous drafts is to point out that it is likely that some of the players within the 80% you think are better than Stone will bust or at least not live up to your lofty expectations. The last two years are not outliers, they just haven't had time to be properly evaluated. You suffer from the same delusion that many on this board do in that you drastically value "what might" be over "what is".

The fact that in your mind you believe that Stone is better than Seth Jones and Sean Couturier tells us everything. This debate is pointless.

Keep Tkachuk.
Watch Colorado draft Hughes.
Watch teams 4-8 draft players that turn out to be better than Stone.

Lose. Lose. Lose. Good luck with your team.

 

[SoulDynasty]

Stone is one of the top 10 wingers in the game. The only argument for some of those players being better than Stone is the whole D/C > W debate.

To Colorado though, the team needs high end wingers more then anything else. I would trade anything less than top 2 pick for Stone easily.

 

[stempniaksen]

The fact that in your mind you believe that Stone is better than Seth Jones and Sean Couturier tells us everything. This debate is pointless.

Keep Tkachuk.
Watch Colorado draft Hughes.
Watch teams 4-8 draft players that turn out to be better than Stone.

Lose. Lose. Lose. Good luck with your team.

What the heck makes Couturier head and shoulders better than Stone (minus the C vs W thing, which can be overblown).

 

[NoName]

You are still missing a crucial step. Melnyk, Dorion, and 1st 2023 to any team for future considerations. Sen's would probably prefer a rival team or in division team...

No. We already lived through Harold Ballard. We don't need his spiritual reincarnation.

Seriously, Melnyk is ts the worst owner in the NHL. By far. He is the biggest obstacle to team success now and in the future, and unfortunately he is the one person in the organization that can't be fired.

 

[Pyrophorus]

The Isles don't have a lot of picks going back, plus they should be in a rebuild situation themselves.

 

[The Ugly Truth]

What the heck makes Couturier head and shoulders better than Stone (minus the C vs W thing, which can be overblown).

Couturier = Selke-level centre with scoring ability that was hidden until the past year due to his usage in Philadelphia (and some bad luck with injuries). Had he been playing with most other teams in the league he would be getting a massive amount of Bergeron-level hype by now. Ask anyone who follows the Flyers how underrated Couturier is.

I won't even go into the fact that a good centre > a good winger.

Your friend also thinks Stone > Seth Jones (a big, fast, smart RD who finished fourth in Norris trophy voting this year). At this point it looks like Ottawa fans think Stone is > anyone not named McDavid. Like I said before, with that kind of valuation it's pointless continuing the debate. We'll just have to wait and see who was right.

 

[stempniaksen]

Couturier = Selke-level centre with scoring ability that was hidden until the past year due to his usage in Philadelphia (and some bad luck with injuries). Had he been playing with most other teams in the league he would be getting a massive amount of Bergeron-level hype by now. Ask anyone who follows the Flyers how underrated Couturier is.

I won't even go into the fact that a good centre > a good winger.

Your friend also thinks Stone > Seth Jones (a big, fast, smart RD who finished fourth in Norris trophy voting this year). At this point it looks like Ottawa fans think Stone is > anyone not named McDavid. Like I said before, with that kind of valuation it's pointless continuing the debate. We'll just have to wait and see who was right.

I didn't mention Jones.

Stone has outscored Couturier every season outside of this past season, and he actually outpaced him this past season as well. Stone is also one (if not the best) defensive winger in the game.

I'm not denying that Couturier is underrated, but I do believe you're underrating Stone if you think Couts is "head and shoulders" better.

 

[TeamRenzo]

Couturier = Selke-level centre with scoring ability that was hidden until the past year due to his usage in Philadelphia (and some bad luck with injuries). Had he been playing with most other teams in the league he would be getting a massive amount of Bergeron-level hype by now. Ask anyone who follows the Flyers how underrated Couturier is.

I won't even go into the fact that a good centre > a good winger.

Your friend also thinks Stone > Seth Jones (a big, fast, smart RD who finished fourth in Norris trophy voting this year). At this point it looks like Ottawa fans think Stone is > anyone not named McDavid. Like I said before, with that kind of valuation it's pointless continuing the debate. We'll just have to wait and see who was right.

SC has turned out much better than I expected however to say he is head and shoulders above Stone is wrong.

 

[The Ugly Truth]

Stone is one of the top 10 wingers in the game. The only argument for some of those players being better than Stone is the whole D/C > W debate.

To Colorado though, the team needs high end wingers more then anything else. I would trade anything less than top 2 pick for Stone easily.

You really believe "Stone is one of the top 10 wingers in the game" and that he is worth the third OA pick? Does someone really have to come up with a list of 10 wingers in the NHL that are better than Stone?

Kane
Ovi
Kessel
Pastrnak
Marchand
Kucherov
Tarasenko
Rakell
Benn
Panarin
Forsberg
Pacioretty
Boeser
Gaudreau
Giroux
Voracek
Rantanen
Marner
Laine
Wheeler

So do Ottawa fans think Stone is in the top 10 of these wingers?

 

[The Ugly Truth]

I didn't mention Jones.

Stone has outscored Couturier every season outside of this past season, and he actually outpaced him this past season as well. Stone is also one (if not the best) defensive winger in the game.

I'm not denying that Couturier is underrated, but I do believe you're underrating Stone if you think Couts is "head and shoulders" better.

Have someone post a comparison of the "fancy stats" for Couturier vs Stone.