If the Sens are 100% guaranteed to finish last (they are not), the pick is still likely to be 4th. Statistically speaking, it is highly unlikely that the Sens pick is in the top 3 next year.
In a vacuum, I suspect a lot of teams would give the 4th-8th overall pick for Mark Stone.
Statistically speaking, the chances are very slim that it's 1st overall. At best it's there's an 18.5%, and that's based on Ottawa finishing dead last - which in it self is also unlikely. Most of the time, the team finishing last is trying to tank - which Ottawa won't be doing because they don't have the pick.
IMO Stone is worth more than a very slim chance at Hughes. The guy was PPG and is defensively speaking, the best top 6 winger in the league.
lol cmon now...
How many drafts have had the top 8 be better than Stone? You're exaggerating quite a bit.
You're looking at this from a Senators point of view but that's not how the Avs would view it. There's a very strong chance that the Ottawa 2019 1st round pick ends up a Top-10 pick
PLUS a chance at a Top-3 pick.
There isn't only going to be Jack Hughes in this draft. It's still early but players like Alex Newhook, Dylan Cozens, Kaapo Kakko, Kirby Dach and Peyton Krebs to name a few are set to be high first round picks and might be available with that pick. Not to mention that whoever that player ends up being, he would not require expansion protection while Mark Stone would...why is Colorado doing this again??
Put it this way, from an Avs perspective : I like Mark Stone a lot but that 1st round pick should be
off-limits. I get that it's essentially '
their' pick but they lost that right to it when they decided to select Tkachuk.
Now it belongs to the Avalanche and if we trade it away,
WE are the ones knowingly trading away a potential high lottery pick. I don't think it's going to happen.
As far as tanking, sometimes even when you're trying to win...you can't because you're just not good enough and you end up with a 48 point season. (just an example)