Silver Seven Senators Remain at Odds with Outside Scouting Consensus

[JungleBeat]

2017 - 2021. Doesn't seem like the team is elite at drafting but it’s pretty early to say either way.

 

[Micklebot]

2017 - 2021. Doesn't seem like the team is elite at drafting but it’s pretty early to say either way.

Definitely too early, that's the thing that gets me when people talk about x team being great or terrible at drafting, often there's so much turnover in GMs, scouts and head scouts that picks you judge a team on were made by the previous regime. How much did Trent Mann have to do with drafting Karlsson, Stone, Pageau or Hoffman, so how relevant are they to our current drafting prowess?

 

[Ice-Tray]

We definitely have the last 4 years as a defined story line.

We have the massive failed year after picking up the star centre

We defer the pick to select Brady, amongst others

We do a complete tear down of the roster to the very ground. No one survives, including coaches.

We use a bunch of picks to stock the cupboards with some really high end prospects, and some off the board late picks.

Both Mann brothers seem to be doing an excellent job. Donovan and Winchester, have Pierre added to their ranks and also seem to be doing a great development job (in my opinion).

Our NHL coach was also a rookie and seems to be coming along well.

Our GM was a rookie to start this tear down and things seem to be coming along well.

We can now see the defined plan year to year, and we can see the defined character and culture that forms the foundation for the on ice team.

We now get to see some more kids thrown in, we’re hoping for some upward movement in the standings, and all in all there is a lot of general positivity around the organization from fans, our players, and from around the league.

We get to follow this story, this build, and see if it is good enough to make noise in the playoffs, and ultimately to win a championship.

We have such a clearly defined start here, second only to expansion day. What a time to be a Sens fan

 

[Samsquanch]

Just like the game of hockey itself, the draft is a complex beast that cannot be beautifully explained in one eloquent equation.

Some picks are much harder than others. Some players are great fits for one team, and a terrible fit for others.

Like Tim Stutzle at #3 was a pick that any moron could have got right (unless your name is Scott Wheeler and have him at #9....lol).

But then taking Brady Tkachuk at #4 was like the most difficult pick in the draft in lots of ways, and easily one of the more controversial and panned picks (that worked out perfectly). Pinto and Sanderson look like they could be equally shrewd picks made by the Sens that could add two more star players to our young core.

Had we taken Kaliyev and say Drysdale/Perfetti (the supposed obvious picks we should have taken in the eyes of the draft "experts") in addition to taking Zadina in 2018 - then this team is still totally lost and in search of an identity as of today. Imo. You cant understate how important the Tkachuk pick was for the Senators franchise (or cite a better example of why you need to trust our scouts).

So yes the Sens are at odds with the scouting community, and I pray to god they keep that up and never come to this forum for advice from anyone here.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

Just like the game of hockey itself, the draft is a complex beast that cannot be beautifully explained in one eloquent equation.

Some picks are much harder than others. Some players are great fits for one team, and a terrible fit for others.

Like Tim Stutzle at #3 was a pick that any moron could have got right (unless your name is Scott Wheeler and have him at #9....lol).

But then taking Brady Tkachuk at #4 was like the most difficult pick in the draft in lots of ways, and easily one of the more controversial and panned picks (that worked out perfectly). Pinto and Sanderson look like they could be equally shrewd picks made by the Sens that could add two more star players to our young core.

Had we taken Kaliyev and say Drysdale/Perfetti (the supposed obvious picks we should have taken in the eyes of the draft "experts") in addition to taking Zadina in 2018 - then this team is still totally lost and in search of an identity as of today. Imo. You cant understate how important the Tkachuk pick was for the Senators franchise (or cite a better example of why you need to trust our scouts).

So yes the Sens are at odds with the scouting community, and I pray to god they keep that up and never come to this forum for advice from anyone here.

Sanderson and Tkachuk were not off the board picks.

You can argue that Pinto is a result of strong drafting though.

 

[Micklebot]

Sanderson and Tkachuk were not off the board picks.

You can argue that Pinto is a result of strong drafting though.

Even Pinto wasn't so much off the board as earlier than expected. MacKenzies list had him around 45 and we took him 32 which isn't that far off at that point in the draft. The think that got people was that there were a couple guys expected to go earlier still on the board who had slid, which if youth saw them as guys who should have gone earlier made Pinto look like a bigger reach than otherwise may have.

I do think he's a good example of our scouts identifying an underappreciated prospect and going for it though. Hopefully Boucher does the same

 

[Samsquanch]

Sanderson and Tkachuk were not off the board picks.

You can argue that Pinto is a result of strong drafting though.

They were off the board picks in the sense that they were absolutely not the obvious picks for the Sens to make. To the point that the Sens were immediately laughed at/questioned by all including their fans.

The higher the draft pick - the more dramatic any leapfrogging in draft position becomes. In the top 5 even just one or two spots is going off the board, so to speak. In the 5-10 range, a jump of five or more spots is certainly going off the board for some team.

And so yeah it took some guts to make both of those picks, thats a fact. And it took talent to get to the conclusions that they did. Lots of it.

I dont think you remember just how well entrenched Zadina was at the #3 spot. He was much closer to #2 than #4 in the eyes of the scouting community. It would have been like Stutzle sliding to Detroit at #4 in 2020, and them deciding to pass on him for someone else (and that someone breaks out huge while Stutzle struggles over their first few years).

And then Sanderson was ranked anywhere from like 7-20 depending on who you asked. Clearly Drysdale was the vast majority of the scouting communities choice for the top Dman at the draft. No question about it, Sanderson was off the board for a top 5 pick. Exactly like Seider the year before.

So yes, my point stands. Tkachuk was definitely a shrewd pick that the Sens scouts must be applauded for. And Sanderson was another bold one that is literally still being questioned by some folks (lmfao @ Wheeler for ranking him the 30th best prospect - right behind Kaliyev.....).

Tkachuk and Sanderson are OBVIOUSLY the result of good scouting, like come on man.....

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

They were off the board picks in the sense that they were absolutely not the obvious picks for the Sens to make. To the point that the Sens were immediately laughed at/questioned by all including their fans.

The higher the draft pick - the more dramatic any leapfrogging in draft position becomes. In the top 5 even just one or two spots is going off the board, so to speak. In the 5-10 range, a jump of five or more spots is certainly going off the board for some team.

And so yeah it took some guts to make both of those picks, thats a fact. And it took talent to get to the conclusions that they did. Lots of it.

I dont think you remember just how well entrenched Zadina was at the #3 spot. He was much closer to #2 than #4 in the eyes of the scouting community. It would have been like Stutzle sliding to Detroit at #4 in 2020, and them deciding to pass on him for someone else (and that someone breaks out huge while Stutzle struggles over their first few years).

And then Sanderson was ranked anywhere from like 7-20 depending on who you asked. Clearly Drysdale was the vast majority of the scouting communities choice for the top Dman at the draft. No question about it, Sanderson was off the board for a top 5 pick. Exactly like Seider the year before.

So yes, my point stands. Tkachuk was definitely a shrewd pick that the Sens scouts must be applauded for. And Sanderson was another bold one that is literally still being questioned by some folks (lmfao @ Wheeler for ranking him the 30th best prospect - right behind Kaliyev.....).

Tkachuk and Sanderson are OBVIOUSLY the result of good scouting, like come on man.....

That's not true at all. Many people liked both of those picks right away.

 

[Samsquanch]

That's not true at all. Many people liked both of those picks right away.

Whatever you want to believe I guess....

I know there were obviously some reasonable fans out there, sure. But its cute that your suggesting that our scouts didnt ruffle A LOT of very loud and vocal peoples feathers with those picks (and continue to do it today with most all of their picks -its basically tradition at this point in time). Specifically on this site.

And the same people seem to have to constantly back peddle and/or use misdirection to downplay or avoid the obvious truths they refuse to confront - and that is the Sens scouts are way ahead on the scoreboard, and have made a habit of exposing the drama queens for what they are...

 

[JungleBeat]

Definitely too early, that's the thing that gets me when people talk about x team being great or terrible at drafting, often there's so much turnover in GMs, scouts and head scouts that picks you judge a team on were made by the previous regime. How much did Trent Mann have to do with drafting Karlsson, Stone, Pageau or Hoffman, so how relevant are they to our current drafting prowess?

True. No point in bringing up the success from 08 - 2011 since the minds behind that are gone. Anders Forsberg was key in drafting Karlsson, Silfverberg, Lehner, Sorensen etc and Lowes was behind Stone and Smith. 2012 - 2016 was mediocre in my opinion. Mann took over in 2017 I think.

 

[Crookshank]

Not sure if anyone use to watch the draft dynasty channel on YT but that is one outside scout that would have really liked our 2020 draft, pre draft he ranked Ridley - #19 / Sanderson - #5 / Stutzle - #2

Also he stopped making video because he got a job with the Habs as a scout. That tells me his opinions on players might be more credible than internet scouting amateurs.

 

[Samsquanch]

Even Pinto wasn't so much off the board as earlier than expected. MacKenzies list had him around 45 and we took him 32 which isn't that far off at that point in the draft. The think that got people was that there were a couple guys expected to go earlier still on the board who had slid, which if youth saw them as guys who should have gone earlier made Pinto look like a bigger reach than otherwise may have.

I do think he's a good example of our scouts identifying an underappreciated prospect and going for it though. Hopefully Boucher does the same

How far does one have to reach, for it to be considered "a reach" of a pick - and then get a little praise for making a bold/unexpected move when it pans out?

Like to me there is going Jake Sanderson off of the board where he jumped up 5 or so spots and into the top 5, and ahead of a noteworthy darling like Drysdale - who was ahead with the media and in the rankings all year.

And then there is Tyler Boucher off the board where draft commentators are literally scrambling to figure out who he is while they fumble around on live casts. I dont believe that only Boucher should be called off of the board though, and thats a crazy hard (and exceedingly uncommon) criteria to meet if so...

Imo, top 1-4 picks - any leapfrogging spots (or surprise fallers) is a noteworthy and weighty event for the teams making those decisions. These are incredibly valuable picks, and the pressure to get it right is enormous. And anything more than one spot has to be considered off of the board, or at the very least a bit bold?


Top 5-10 picks - anyone taken 5 spots or more is going to have to be called an off the board pick.

Top 11-30 - I'd say more than 10 picks and your quite clearly off the board.

Top 31-60 - getting a bit grey here, but 15 or more spots seems appropriate for what is still a valuable asset in this league.

Beyond that, it all comes down to scouting talent, and a bit of luck. Its a crapshoot at this point. So not much can be called truly off of the board here imo.

 

[FormentonTheFuture]

True. No point in bringing up the success from 08 - 2011 since the minds behind that are gone. Anders Forsberg was key in drafting Karlsson, Silfverberg, Lehner, Sorensen etc and Lowes was behind Stone and Smith. 2012 - 2016 was mediocre in my opinion. Mann took over in 2017 I think.

Sorensen really? Who cares about him??

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

Whatever you want to believe I guess....

I know there were obviously some reasonable fans out there, sure. But its cute that your suggesting that our scouts didnt ruffle A LOT of very loud and vocal peoples feathers with those picks (and continue to do it today with most all of their picks -its basically tradition at this point in time). Specifically on this site.

And the same people seem to have to constantly back peddle and/or use misdirection to downplay or avoid the obvious truths they refuse to confront - and that is the Sens scouts are way ahead on the scoreboard, and have made a habit of exposing the drama queens for what they are...

lol, that's a lot of projection on your part with that one.

 

[SlapJack]

Not sure if anyone use to watch the draft dynasty channel on YT but that is one outside scout that would have really liked our 2020 draft, pre draft he ranked Ridley - #19 / Sanderson - #5 / Stutzle - #2

Also he stopped making video because he got a job with the Habs as a scout. That tells me his opinions on players might be more credible than internet scouting amateurs.

Loved his videos because he gave very detailed explanations about why he had guys where they are, and also had his own biases which he openly admitted. He liked players that were gamers and showed up when it counted. Had Byfield at 6, Drysdale at 8, and Raymond outside the top 10. But justified why without using statistics.

He really loved all 3 of Ottawa's picks. And honestly, if you asked 10 NHL scouts to give you their top 10 from last year, you'd get 10 different lists. 2 guys from McKenzie's pool of 10 sources had Stuetzle and Sanderson at #2 and #3.

 

[Agent Zub]

They were off the board picks in the sense that they were absolutely not the obvious picks for the Sens to make. To the point that the Sens were immediately laughed at/questioned by all including their fans.

The higher the draft pick - the more dramatic any leapfrogging in draft position becomes. In the top 5 even just one or two spots is going off the board, so to speak. In the 5-10 range, a jump of five or more spots is certainly going off the board for some team.

And so yeah it took some guts to make both of those picks, thats a fact. And it took talent to get to the conclusions that they did. Lots of it.

I dont think you remember just how well entrenched Zadina was at the #3 spot. He was much closer to #2 than #4 in the eyes of the scouting community. It would have been like Stutzle sliding to Detroit at #4 in 2020, and them deciding to pass on him for someone else (and that someone breaks out huge while Stutzle struggles over their first few years).

And then Sanderson was ranked anywhere from like 7-20 depending on who you asked. Clearly Drysdale was the vast majority of the scouting communities choice for the top Dman at the draft. No question about it, Sanderson was off the board for a top 5 pick. Exactly like Seider the year before.

So yes, my point stands. Tkachuk was definitely a shrewd pick that the Sens scouts must be applauded for. And Sanderson was another bold one that is literally still being questioned by some folks (lmfao @ Wheeler for ranking him the 30th best prospect - right behind Kaliyev.....).

Tkachuk and Sanderson are OBVIOUSLY the result of good scouting, like come on man.....

I'm pretty sure Tkachuk had 3 or 4 aggregate ranking pre draft.

Sanderson was also around the top 5 in the pre draft and many other years would have been a top 3. He has the best tools from the draft and one of the highest hockey sense

They are good picks. But they literally took the players who were the most projectable for the NHL.

 

[aragorn]

2017 - 2021. Doesn't seem like the team is elite at drafting but it’s pretty early to say either way.

What team is considered elite at drafting? IMO that would mean drafting a superstar in every draft & which team is that lucky? Don't most hope to be better than 50% whereby they are drafting 2 or 3 prospects that end up in the NHL at some point with every draft, if they are lucky?
Those teams near the top of the league that are looking for just one or two more really good pieces to contend for the SC trade away their high picks to teams that are rebuilding & want good younger players. It really depends on where teams are at during their contending cycles as to how they draft, does it not? If they have traded away their 1st & 2nd rd picks it's quite likely that whoever they draft in the 3rd rd is not going to be very good & could or might not ever make the NHL. Those who get to pick high up in the draft or have a couple of 1st rd picks clearly do better than those who pick later in the draft and/or only have maybe one selection per rd. There are numerous variables associated with each team in each draft, I have no idea how anyone can determine this.

Tampa has been somewhat lucky with their drafting, but in a few yrs as this current cycle of stars age & the team begins to regress we'll see if they can rebound with their new stock of prospects. Some teams draft who most believe is the right player (Yakopov) & it still turns out wrong. The draft is a crap shoot, although getting much more sophisticated, but mistakes are still made every draft trying to forecast how 18 yr old kids are going to develop. Given how many of the Senator players have ended up in the NHL & how many on the current org have NHL potential tells me they are not bad at it & probably better than a number of other teams.

 

[Cosmix]

What team is considered elite at drafting? IMO that would mean drafting a superstar in every draft & which team is that lucky? Don't most hope to be better than 50% whereby they are drafting 2 or 3 prospects that end up in the NHL at some point with every draft, if they are lucky?
Those teams near the top of the league that are looking for just one or two more really good pieces to contend for the SC trade away their high picks to teams that are rebuilding & want good younger players. It really depends on where teams are at during their contending cycles as to how they draft, does it not? If they have traded away their 1st & 2nd rd picks it's quite likely that whoever they draft in the 3rd rd is not going to be very good & could or might not ever make the NHL. Those who get to pick high up in the draft or have a couple of 1st rd picks clearly do better than those who pick later in the draft and/or only have maybe one selection per rd. There are numerous variables associated with each team in each draft, I have no idea how anyone can determine this.

Tampa has been somewhat lucky with their drafting, but in a few yrs as this current cycle of stars age & the team begins to regress we'll see if they can rebound with their new stock of prospects. Some teams draft who most believe is the right player (Yakopov) & it still turns out wrong. The draft is a crap shoot, although getting much more sophisticated, but mistakes are still made every draft trying to forecast how 18 yr old kids are going to develop. Given how many of the Senator players have ended up in the NHL & how many on the current org have NHL potential tells me they are not bad at it & probably better than a number of other teams.

I think there are methodologies that could be used to assess a team or a scout's success at identifying players and their draft rankings. I am not experienced enough to do it; however, I have seen some attempts to assess a team's success taking into account where they drafted a player (round and pick number), the player's performance for years after the draft, etc.

 

[aragorn]

I think there are methodologies that could be used to assess a team or a scout's success at identifying players and their draft rankings. I am not experienced enough to do it; however, I have seen some attempts to assess a team's success taking into account where they drafted a player (round and pick number), the player's performance for years after the draft, etc.

I'm sure there are, but every team every yr is in a unique position depending upon where they are in there contending cycle & how many picks they have per rd. Those at the top usually add at the TDL & sometimes they trade away their high picks, whereas the other teams at the opposite end of the spectrum are trading away their vets or best players & adding picks.

The teams in the middle are usually also drafting in the middle afterall that is how the NHL has set up the draft to try & create parity. Then there is the whole lottery deal & how many teams have profited from that arrangement by just being lucky & those that still manage to screw it up. It's certainly not a perfect science & I imagine every team puts as many resources into drafting as possible to prepare for every scenario within every draft.

 

[Cosmix]

I'm sure there are, but every team every yr is in a unique position depending upon where they are in there contending cycle & how many picks they have per rd. Those at the top usually add at the TDL & sometimes they trade away their high picks, whereas the other teams at the opposite end of the spectrum are trading away their vets or best players & adding picks.

The teams in the middle are usually also drafting in the middle afterall that is how the NHL has set up the draft to try & create parity. Then there is the whole lottery deal & how many teams have profited from that arrangement by just being lucky & those that still manage to screw it up. It's certainly not a perfect science & I imagine every team puts as many resources into drafting as possible to prepare for every scenario within every draft.

I know every team has a different profile (total number of picks, pick number, etc.) with respect to their draft picks each year; however, I think someone who has stats background could develop a model to take all the identifiable factors into account to come up with an assessment of how well a team drafts. I am too old and lost too many brain cells to alcohol and ageing to do it.

 

[Cosmix]

Just read an interesting article on The Athletic by Wheeler regarding a redo of the 2018 draft:

"Wheeler: Who goes first in a 2018 NHL Draft redo? And how do their pre-draft rankings hold up today?"

Has Brady at #4 with Hughes rising to #1.

 

[JD1]

What team is considered elite at drafting? IMO that would mean drafting a superstar in every draft & which team is that lucky? Don't most hope to be better than 50% whereby they are drafting 2 or 3 prospects that end up in the NHL at some point with every draft, if they are lucky?
Those teams near the top of the league that are looking for just one or two more really good pieces to contend for the SC trade away their high picks to teams that are rebuilding & want good younger players. It really depends on where teams are at during their contending cycles as to how they draft, does it not? If they have traded away their 1st & 2nd rd picks it's quite likely that whoever they draft in the 3rd rd is not going to be very good & could or might not ever make the NHL. Those who get to pick high up in the draft or have a couple of 1st rd picks clearly do better than those who pick later in the draft and/or only have maybe one selection per rd. There are numerous variables associated with each team in each draft, I have no idea how anyone can determine this.

Tampa has been somewhat lucky with their drafting, but in a few yrs as this current cycle of stars age & the team begins to regress we'll see if they can rebound with their new stock of prospects. Some teams draft who most believe is the right player (Yakopov) & it still turns out wrong. The draft is a crap shoot, although getting much more sophisticated, but mistakes are still made every draft trying to forecast how 18 yr old kids are going to develop. Given how many of the Senator players have ended up in the NHL & how many on the current org have NHL potential tells me they are not bad at it & probably better than a number of other teams.

Drafting is an interesting thing and certainly luck plays a part

For sure there are guys drafted outside the 1st round that become stars. Is that shrewd drafting or luck? Tampa picked Kucherov and Point. Absolute grand slams on both. Tampa selected 3 guys ahead of Point in 2014. What does that make drafting Point? Pretty damn lucky in my view. Same with Kucherov. One selection ahead of him.maybe they were scouting Russians better than other teams in those days, but their own analysis has Namestijov ahead of Kucherov so there's some luck there too.

 

[aragorn]

Drafting is an interesting thing and certainly luck plays a part

For sure there are guys drafted outside the 1st round that become stars. Is that shrewd drafting or luck? Tampa picked Kucherov and Point. Absolute grand slams on both. Tampa selected 3 guys ahead of Point in 2014. What does that make drafting Point? Pretty damn lucky in my view. Same with Kucherov. One selection ahead of him.maybe they were scouting Russians better than other teams in those days, but their own analysis has Namestijov ahead of Kucherov so there's some luck there too.

I'm quite sure every team has been lucky with some picks & unlucky with others, Ottawa got lucky with Stone, Hoffman & now Batherson. And this doesn't even take into account the player himself & whether they have what it takes to figure it out or the work ethic to work as hard as required every day for yrs. It's definitely not easy for scouts, hopefully they win more than they lose.

 

[BondraTime]

Drafting is an interesting thing and certainly luck plays a part

For sure there are guys drafted outside the 1st round that become stars. Is that shrewd drafting or luck? Tampa picked Kucherov and Point. Absolute grand slams on both. Tampa selected 3 guys ahead of Point in 2014. What does that make drafting Point? Pretty damn lucky in my view. Same with Kucherov. One selection ahead of him.maybe they were scouting Russians better than other teams in those days, but their own analysis has Namestijov ahead of Kucherov so there's some luck there too.

Not always the case, there are many times teams take guys they have lower on their lists because they believe they can get the higher guys at a later point. Not a way I’d like to operate, but is something that’s done throughout the teams. Kings had Simmonds in their top 15 I believe, and had Moller further down their list, but thought they’d have a chance at both taking Moller 10 spots before they picked up Simmonds.

Risky as they may lose their higher rated skater, but depending on the situation is something teams do.

A Seat at the Kings Draft Table

Depending on situation, teams can choose guys they have ranked lower on their personal lists higher than guys they have ranked higher than them. Is this the situation with Tampa? Not a clue, but it’s definitely something many teams prepare for and do on draft day.

 

[JD1]

Not always the case, there are many times teams take guys they have lower on their lists because they believe they can get the higher guys at a later point. Not a way I’d like to operate, but is something that’s done throughout the teams. Kings had Simmonds in their top 15 I believe, and had Moller further down their list, but thought they’d have a chance at both taking Moller 10 spots before they picked up Simmonds.

Risky as they may lose their higher rated skater, but depending on the situation is something teams do.

A Seat at the Kings Draft Table

Depending on situation, teams can choose guys they have ranked lower on their personal lists higher than guys they have ranked higher than them. Is this the situation with Tampa? Not a clue, but it’s definitely something many teams prepare for and do on draft day.

For sure i understand that.

But you look at a guy like Point. Legit star. If that's your projection of him, there's no way you make 3 selections ahead of him and cross your fingers and hope no one else sees what you see