GDT: Seattle Kraken Free Agent Frenzy Discussion

[Irie]

They have done absolutely nothing that looks like playoff or bust. Their moves are remarkably patient, and I think far too passive actually. This came up on the pdocast recently where Dmitri and the guest both agreed that Seattle could have made some big moves - they had the assets and the cap space - and did nothing except fill out with replacement level players. It feels like "nothing ventured nothing gained" is the motto around here and I don't like it.

The conversation was about "taking a step back" by trading Dunn for futures.

I do not believe that is in the cards with where ownership is. If Dunn is moved out I think they try to trade for a replacement, (if one is not included in the deal). Those types of deals rarely favor the team looking to move on from an individual player due to contract issues.

You keep referencing that they have all this cap space this off-season, and you have called me out on saying that cap is tight multiple times. I agree with by and large the majority of your takes here, but Francis spent 5.4 million on replacements for Geekie, Sprong, and Soucy (which is not much, relatively speaking), and the team now has 9.2 million in available cap with Dunn yet to sign, who may get close to 8M in arbitration.

Where is this cap coming from that they didn't use? What realistic moves were actually available to Francis given the current cap and team structure?

I think he has widely avoided making moves for the future which would be the patient build approach, and has instead switched gears to compete and benefit the present. He hasn't made big splashes, but he is not slow building this thing the same way he seemed to be in expansion and up to the trade deadline in the first year since ownership came out on record stating that winning now was a priority.

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

I think it would totally depend on the return. I believe I am higher on Dunn than most around here because I see a kid with skill that always competes and hates losing. I don't think his play drops off and I think he is just a late bloomer.

As I previously stated, sounds like ownership may be tying Francis' hands here a bit. They are all in on the NBA franchise, and with Silver's comments yesterday, it sure sounds like Vegas is all but a shoo--in to be chosen and Seattle is now in competition with a few other cities. That bodes poorly for the slow and steady "build it right" philosophy that many of us felt was the path to success.

Feels like a playoffs or bust scenario, which usually leads to panic moves.

I am not sure what you mean by Francis' hands being tied. Do you mean he won't have any option but to sign Dunn as he is a core part of the team right now? Or did you mean that they don't want to control the amount of $$ the team spends? I think you mean the former but want to be sure.

Also, I would have seriously expected more moves than just a Dunn and Borgen re-signing. Yamamoto, Doumolin, and Bellemare aren't exactly players to put us over the top if management is very serious about a playoff run. Personally, I feel there is a decent chance we miss the playoffs this season.

Help me understand here. When you say " as a UFA" do you mean next summer? Can't he be extended during the year? Good players, including top pair D, rarely make it to UFA, they get signed or signed/traded.

That and it seems more plausible to me that the reason Dunn isn't signed yet is because they haven't offered him #1D money. If they offer that during the season, do you have any reason to expect that he won't take it? The pessimism just seems out of control.

Yes, I meant him not re-signing as a UFA next summer. If things do make it to arbitration, and Dunn signs a 1-year contract, what motivation would he have to return here? I think Francis would have burnt that bridge and Dunn may just want to try his luck in FA if $$ is his ultimate goal.

 

[Irie]

I am not sure what you mean by Francis' hands being tied. Do you mean he won't have any option but to sign Dunn as he is a core part of the team right now? Or did you mean that they don't want to control the amount of $$ the team spends? I think you mean the former but want to be sure.

Also, I would have seriously expected more moves than just a Dunn and Borgen re-signing. Yamamoto, Doumolin, and Bellemare aren't exactly players to put us over the top if management is very serious about a playoff run. Personally, I feel there is a decent chance we miss the playoffs this season.

What I mean is "hands are tied to make the effort to not take a step back".

Basing on Francis' time in Carolina, I think if he had complete autonomy over Seattle's decisions now he would have sold Soucy and Sprong last TDL, and would be moving out players for futures to build this thing fully through the draft.

As far as current moves, I do believe the team is worse today than it was to finish the season. He saved 1.9 million, but likely picked up inferior players. Cap space was a huge component of those decisions.

Which "big" changes do you think were available to the team given the roster and cap? Everyone saw that 20M in cap and thought, "wow, Seattle has so much space they can bring in a ton of upgrades!", without closely looking at the situation, which would have shown that they had 3 of their top 6 defenders needing hefty raises or replacements, and 45 goals from their bottom 6 becoming free agents, and 2M of Beniers' bonuses to likely also account for.

Cap is tight around the league. Moving pieces without taking money back to open cap is extremely costly at the moment. The realistic options available to Francis right now are probably extremely limited.

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

What I mean is "hands are tied to make the effort to not take a step back".

Basing on Francis' time in Carolina, I think if he had complete autonomy over Seattle's decisions now he would have sold Soucy and Sprong last TDL, and would be moving out players for futures to build this thing fully through the draft.

As far as current moves, I do believe the team is worse today than it was to finish the season. He saved 1.9 million, but likely picked up inferior players. Cap space was a huge component of those decisions.

Which "big" changes do you think were available to the team given the roster and cap? Everyone saw that 20M in cap and thought, "wow, Seattle has so much space they can bring in a ton of upgrades!", without closely looking at the situation, which would have shown that they had 3 of their top 6 defenders needing hefty raises or replacements, and 45 goals from their bottom 6 becoming free agents, and 2M of Beniers' bonuses to likely also account for.

Cap is tight around the league. Moving pieces without taking money back to open cap is extremely costly at the moment. The realistic options available to Francis right now are probably extremely limited.

If the team, management, fans can detach from attachments to players, I could have seen several improvements.

Schultz, Eberle, Wennberg, Oleksiak all have trade value. Move some combination of them to create cap space and get better players. Similarly we could have moved out picks this draft to do the same. If Francis cannot run the team the way he wants, we will be in no mans land. Not good enough but also not bad enough. A middling team.

 

[majormajor]

Yes, I meant him not re-signing as a UFA next summer. If things do make it to arbitration, and Dunn signs a 1-year contract, what motivation would he have to return here? I think Francis would have burnt that bridge and Dunn may just want to try his luck in FA if $$ is his ultimate goal.

What motivation? How about $$ here?

In my experience, sometimes players extend the summer prior to UFA, sometimes during the year, but rarely do high end players make it to UFA. Who was the best D to make it to market this year?

If it's about $$ then either 1) he can get it here, or 2) Francis doesn't think he's worth it. Only in the second case does it make sense to trade him.

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

What motivation? How about $$ here?

In my experience, sometimes players extend the summer prior to UFA, sometimes during the year, but rarely do high end players make it to UFA. Who was the best D to make it to market this year?

If it's about $$ then either 1) he can get it here, or 2) Francis doesn't think he's worth it. Only in the second case does it make sense to trade him.

I do not believe there are many players who hit arbitration and then get re-signed the following season on the same team. Sure it could happen but if Dunn really does a repeat of this season, what motivation would he have to sign here instead of hitting the FA market? After all, it is all about $ right?

 

[majormajor]

What I mean is "hands are tied to make the effort to not take a step back".

Basing on Francis' time in Carolina, I think if he had complete autonomy over Seattle's decisions now he would have sold Soucy and Sprong last TDL, and would be moving out players for futures to build this thing fully through the draft.

As far as current moves, I do believe the team is worse today than it was to finish the season. He saved 1.9 million, but likely picked up inferior players. Cap space was a huge component of those decisions.

Which "big" changes do you think were available to the team given the roster and cap? Everyone saw that 20M in cap and thought, "wow, Seattle has so much space they can bring in a ton of upgrades!", without closely looking at the situation, which would have shown that they had 3 of their top 6 defenders needing hefty raises or replacements, and 45 goals from their bottom 6 becoming free agents, and 2M of Beniers' bonuses to likely also account for.

Cap is tight around the league. Moving pieces without taking money back to open cap is extremely costly at the moment. The realistic options available to Francis right now are probably extremely limited.

We can debate whether Francis wants to make big changes or not, but he certainly hasn't done anything yet.

There might be a small indicator of philosophy by not selling off Soucy, etc... but the material difference to the club of getting one additional second round pick is very minimal. The club is in the same position whether you do that or not. And I'm not sure it's that telling of a decision, even an otherwise patient build would still yield to the reality that winning playoff games is what we're trying to do here.

I do not believe there are many players who hit arbitration and then get re-signed the following season on the same team. Sure it could happen but if Dunn really does a repeat of this season, what motivation would he have to sign here instead of hitting the FA market? After all, it is all about $ right?

It being about the $ ought to be a reason to think he's especially likely to extend here.

 

[The Marquis]

Dunn could have just been qualified to give them more time.

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

We can debate whether Francis wants to make big changes or not, but he certainly hasn't done anything yet.

There might be a small indicator of philosophy by not selling off Soucy, etc... but the material difference to the club of getting one additional second round pick is very minimal. The club is in the same position whether you do that or not. And I'm not sure it's that telling of a decision, even an otherwise patient build would still yield to the reality that winning playoff games is what we're trying to do here.



It being about the $ ought to be a reason to think he's especially likely to extend here.

Again, if it is about $, why would he not want to hit UFA? Go to the highest bidder. Yes, he can get one more year in Seattle but that is assuming Francis intends to hand out 8 year deals. Yes, the no state income tax helps but how much?

Players also tend to have an ego. Do you feel slighted with what goes on in arbitration? Do you hold that against the team?

I have no idea what happens but I don't see why he would want to be back here if it is about the $.

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

Dunn could have just been qualified to give them more time.

Dunn was qualified. That is the reason he can go to arbitration.

Edit: I think that is what you meant anyway. I read it is as something else. LOL.

 

[The Marquis]

Dunn was qualified. That is the reason he can go to arbitration.

Edit: I think that is what you meant anyway. I read it is as something else. LOL.

Yes that is in fact what I meant. I just figured the reason was to give Seattle and Dunn’s agent more time to work on a deal.

 

[majormajor]

Again, if it is about $, why would he not want to hit UFA? Go to the highest bidder.

Right, if only I could think of a team that needs a #1D and has the cap space for it.

If he's a #1D again, then we are the highest bidder!

Yes that is in fact what I meant. I just figured the reason was to give Seattle and Dunn’s agent more time to work on a deal.

I think or at least I hope that he was qualified so they can see how he plays a little more.

 

[Irie]

If the team, management, fans can detach from attachments to players, I could have seen several improvements.

Schultz, Eberle, Wennberg, Oleksiak all have trade value. Move some combination of them to create cap space and get better players. Similarly we could have moved out picks this draft to do the same. If Francis cannot run the team the way he wants, we will be in no mans land. Not good enough but also not bad enough. A middling team.

I disagree that any of those guys have much trade value at their current deals in the current cap landscape. This offseason is worse than last year, and Bjorkstrand at 27 returned a 3rd and a 4th last offseason.

Eberle -33 year old 5.5M
Oleksiak - Turning 31 this year 4.6M caphit and 6M actual salary with 15M left on his deal.
Wennberg 4.5M caphit making 5M actual dollars
Even Schultz at 3M is likely not viewed as great value around the league at 33 years old.

The value Francis could get for any of these guys is minimal, and more than likely they would all require taking money back to move. And then once you trade them, you have to replace them, in which case, the good players available are on bad contracts, or he'd have to sign UFAs to bad contracts. The cap would be tough to make work in most scenarios.

I think we are seeing the exodus of serviceable younger FAs and UFAs in an attempt to stay a bubble team now. I do not believe this is Francis' MO, nor do I think it is his first choice on how to build this ship. I think win now is the message coming down from above as they start to panic about missing out on the main prize of that NBA franchise. We are fooling ourselves if we think they invested almost 2 billion dollars into the Kraken and Climate pledge to bring Hockey to the Seattle and that the main goal all along was not the SuperSonics.

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

Right, if only I could think of a team that needs a #1D and has the cap space for it.

If he's a #1D again, then we are the highest bidder!

What makes you believe we are the highest bidder? We are the only bidder right now. But if UFA hits, we won't be?

A lot can happen between now and next off-season. Teams will move contracts out and make cap space available if they want to sign Dunn. This off-season is not the same as next one.

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

I disagree that any of those guys have much trade value at their current deals in the current cap landscape. This offseason is worse than last year, and Bjorkstrand at 27 returned a 3rd and a 4th last offseason.

Eberle -33 year old 5.5M
Oleksiak - Turning 31 this year 4.6M caphit and 6M actual salary with 15M left on his deal.
Wennberg 4.5M caphit making 5M actual dollars
Even Schultz at 3M is likely not viewed as great value around the league at 33 years old.

The value Francis could get for any of these guys is minimal, and more than likely they would all require taking money back to move. And then once you trade them, you have to replace them, in which case, the good players available are on bad contracts, or he'd have to sign UFAs to bad contracts. The cap would be tough to make work in most scenarios.

I think we are seeing the exodus of serviceable younger FAs and UFAs in an attempt to stay a bubble team now. I do not believe this is Francis' MO, nor do I think it is his first choice on how to build this ship. I think win now is the message coming down from above as they start to panic about missing out on the main prize of that NBA franchise. We are fooling ourselves if we think they invested almost 2 billion dollars into the Kraken and Climate pledge to bring Hockey to the Seattle and that the main goal all along was not the SuperSonics.

Lets agree to disagree then. I feel like those players have value. You retain a small percentage on those guys if it gives us more of a return.

As far as the Sonics go, you may be right, but as someone who doesn't care about basketball at all, I have no idea where the priorities lie about getting basketball back here. I don't have enough interest in the sport to keep up with the news.

 

[Irie]

Lets agree to disagree then. I feel like those players have value. You retain a small percentage on those guys if it gives us more of a return.

They are all useful players, but they are not great value contracts. Looking at comparable players and what they are returning now, no one is trading for them without returning their own bad contracts. There is just zero cap available to teams that would be interested. The teams with cap space mostly have internal budgets, and most of these Seattle players are paid more than their actual cap hits, making them undesirable to that group. For the few teams with cap and deep pockets, they are selling their capspace to desperate GMs and asking for premium returns.

If Francis is retaining, then he is further limiting his available cap to find replacements.

Bottom line is that good players on good contracts are just not available. Teams hold on to them or require massive overpayment, which makes acquiring them not worth the cost.

Fans all assume that there are good deals for good players on good contracts to be had if a GM is smart, but right now, everyone is looking for the same thing and no one is selling for reasonable prices. Several GMs have commented that "everyone wants to make moves, but there is just nothing of interest available." It takes two to tango.

As far as the Sonics go, you may be right, but as someone who doesn't care about basketball at all, I have no idea where the priorities lie about getting basketball back here. I don't have enough interest in the sport to keep up with the news.

Ownership has been extremely vocal about wanting the NBA expansion. I am not a basketball fan either, but the NBA franchise is the financial prize. The value of the Supersonics would likely be three times or more than what they Kraken are worth, and the Arena cost modifications would be minimal, maximizing the return.

If they don't get an NBA franchise, than the huge investment in the arena and the Kraken won't be profitable for a very long time, if ever. The Kraken were always the Gateway to the Supersonics and a foot in the door to the NBA for this ownership group. My concerns are for the season after next. The NBA decision will probably come down in 2025, and so the 2024-25 roster decisions may be all about sacrificing the future to keep the team in the bubble for that single season.

 

[Fuhrious]

Right, if only I could think of a team that needs a #1D and has the cap space for it.

If he's a #1D again, then we are the highest bidder!



I think or at least I hope that he was qualified so they can see how he plays a little more.

I guess Johnny Gaudreau wasnt a thing last off-season, nor Dougie Hamilton the year before that, nor Pietrangelo the year before THAT...all those signings just werent a thing because according to you "big names never make it to UFA".

You have a very condescending way of speaking to people, while almost everyone else here is quite polite. I suspect it's time to exercise my Block button.

 

[majormajor]

I guess Johnny Gaudreau wasnt a thing last off-season, nor Dougie Hamilton the year before that, nor Pietrangelo the year before THAT...all those signings just werent a thing because according to you "big names never make it to UFA".

That is quite the misquote. I think most don't make it, which is a different argument.

Pietrangelo might be a good cautionary point for Dunn, because the club didn't give him their best offer until UFA. My contention was that we would come to terms with Dunn during the year or move on, I'm not suggesting we go to UFA with Dunn.

The Canes weren't going to pay remotely what it took for Hamilton and Gaudreau left Calgary for non-money reasons (they offered him more than Columbus did).

As I understand it, there is a dispute between those who think we either sign long term or trade him this summer, and those who think we can sign or trade him during the season. I'm not seeing anyone who would keep him into UFA. Do I have that right?

You have a very condescending way of speaking to people, while almost everyone else here is quite polite. I suspect it's time to exercise my Block button.

I respect everyone here, my apologies for not reflecting that in my writing.

 

[RainyCityHockey]

I am not sure what you mean by Francis' hands being tied. Do you mean he won't have any option but to sign Dunn as he is a core part of the team right now? Or did you mean that they don't want to control the amount of $$ the team spends? I think you mean the former but want to be sure.

Also, I would have seriously expected more moves than just a Dunn and Borgen re-signing. Yamamoto, Doumolin, and Bellemare aren't exactly players to put us over the top if management is very serious about a playoff run. Personally, I feel there is a decent chance we miss the playoffs this season.

Why?

The free agent class sucked a$$ and you also don't want to do something stupid that might get you in cap trouble or block young guys.

I expected a very boring offseason and that's what we're seeing.
The most "exciting thing" will be the extensions(or lack of) Dunn and most likely Beniers.

Also, he was supposedly in on Karlsson who then, again supposedly, just didn't want to waive his NMC for us.

The only thing I could see him do is another one of those Burakovsky trades but those usually happen closer to preseason when teams realize they're over the cap and need to do something.

BTW: To me, no matter if we re-signed Geekie, Sprong, Donato or not, this team will need to play better defense and have better goaltending in order to have a shot at the playoffs again.
There's no way we're having another season where we're shooting an insane percentage as a team and are able to outscore all our defensive/goaltending problems and have a guy winning 27 starts while not even being able to manage a .890 SV%.

 

[rsteen]

Lets agree to disagree then. I feel like those players have value. You retain a small percentage on those guys if it gives us more of a return.

Are you saying they should rebuild? Retaining on veterans who have decent performance and not terrible contracts just to move them out is a rebuilding move. It's hard to get better AND cheaper, especially in this flat cap environment.

 

[majormajor]

Are you saying they should rebuild? Retaining on veterans who have decent performance and not terrible contracts just to move them out is a rebuilding move. It's hard to get better AND cheaper, especially in this flat cap environment.

They were saying that we could have moved some of those players if we had a better player we could acquire. I agree with that.

Vegas has been doing that for years. They just unloaded Reilly Smith. Before that Fleury, Pacioretty, Schmidt, etc... They've supposedly been in cap hell the whole time.

 

[rsteen]

They were saying that we could have moved some of those players if we had a better player we could acquire. I agree with that.

Vegas has been doing that for years. They just unloaded Reilly Smith. Before that Fleury, Pacioretty, Schmidt, etc... They've supposedly been in cap hell the whole time.

Well, that's a big if. Sure, if you acquire DeBrincat you would need to dump Schwartz or someone. There were rumors about both Karlsson and DeBrincat but apparently neither player wanted to come to Seattle.

With such a poor free agent class and with the trade market being so sluggish due to the flat cap, I'm not surprised that RF hasn't made any big moves.

 

[The Marquis]

The more I think about it, the more I think that the Kraken either should have gone full on no change and signed the guys they lost, or they did about everything they could do. They were only replacing 4th line, healthy scratch or a 3rd pairing guy, albeit, good players pretty much all around at what their role is. That last bit is why we feel some air was let out of the tire, but Yamamoto is more than a replacement level player for that 4th line, and Dumo easily has the ability with some Schultz like resurgence to be better than Soucy, because he actually has been better, many times.

But… then you have Bellemare. Is he replacement level for Geekie? Probably not, but it’s not much of a drop. Different, yes, older, definitely, but way tougher and better in a shutdown role. Ironically will likely win many more faceoffs, but is replacing the team leader in that category. Sigh.

The question about “where will the goals come from?” Is totally valid, but who had Sprong scoring that many? Nobody. Literally. Who would have him repeating that? Nobody.

 

[Fuhrious]

The more I think about it, the more I think that the Kraken either should have gone full on no change and signed the guys they lost, or they did about everything they could do. They were only replacing 4th line, healthy scratch or a 3rd pairing guy, albeit, good players pretty much all around at what their role is. That last bit is why we feel some air was let out of the tire, but Yamamoto is more than a replacement level player for that 4th line, and Dumo easily has the ability with some Schultz like resurgence to be better than Soucy, because he actually has been better, many times.

But… then you have Bellemare. Is he replacement level for Geekie? Probably not, but it’s not much of a drop. Different, yes, older, definitely, but way tougher and better in a shutdown role. Ironically will likely win many more faceoffs, but is replacing the team leader in that category. Sigh.

The question about “where will the goals come from?” Is totally valid, but who had Sprong scoring that many? Nobody. Literally. Who would have him repeating that? Nobody.

Yeah, I get what you’re saying and I honestly hope Sprong does great in Detroit in a larger role. I guess I’m a little more concerned about “where will the goals come from” if Eberle and McCann regress back to career averages?

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

The more I think about it, the more I think that the Kraken either should have gone full on no change and signed the guys they lost, or they did about everything they could do. They were only replacing 4th line, healthy scratch or a 3rd pairing guy, albeit, good players pretty much all around at what their role is. That last bit is why we feel some air was let out of the tire, but Yamamoto is more than a replacement level player for that 4th line, and Dumo easily has the ability with some Schultz like resurgence to be better than Soucy, because he actually has been better, many times.

But… then you have Bellemare. Is he replacement level for Geekie? Probably not, but it’s not much of a drop. Different, yes, older, definitely, but way tougher and better in a shutdown role. Ironically will likely win many more faceoffs, but is replacing the team leader in that category. Sigh.

The question about “where will the goals come from?” Is totally valid, but who had Sprong scoring that many? Nobody. Literally. Who would have him repeating that? Nobody.

This is kind of aligned with my thoughts too. Can anyone emphatically say that the team is better this season than last? I certainly can't. I agree with @RainyCityHockey that the UFA class this season sucks, but if the team wanted to get better, there is always a way. And there still is via trades. It is not our job as fans to make the team better, that is the GMs.

Also, as to what @Irie said if the team really needs to be successful to land the NBA franchise, wouldn't we expect us to me more Vegas like? Mortgage the future for immediate success? I am not sure if Francis is the right GM for that but if he wants to be around, he will have to because this team is unlikely to repeat what they did last season with the roster as it stands.