Season is over - thoughts on 2019/2020

[zeke]

 

[X66]

View attachment 350538

People overlook just how much the goaltending took a step back this year. Some of that is definitely on Dubas because he brought back Hutch, but a lot of that is on Andersen. He's been arguably the worst starter in the division this year, which sucks for us.

 

[ACC1224]

Andersen can definitely struggle at times with the 'expected' save.

 

[Dekes For Days]

People overlook just how much the goaltending took a step back this year. Some of that is definitely on Dubas because he brought back Hutch, but a lot of that is on Andersen. He's been arguably the worst starter in the division this year, which sucks for us.

More recent play also often makes people forget that Hutchinson had a 0.914 save percentage in his limited games with us in 2018-2019, behind a worse defensive team. Hutchinson wasn't the long term answer, but he was a career 0.908 goalie coming into this season, which is pretty far off the 0.886 he put up with us this year.

 

[Mess]

People overlook just how much the goaltending took a step back this year. Some of that is definitely on Dubas because he brought back Hutch, but a lot of that is on Andersen. He's been arguably the worst starter in the division this year, which sucks for us.

That is not something that should instill confidence heading into this play-in series and beyond for Leaf fans as neither Andersen's GAA nor sv% appear in the top 30 amongst his peers.

However he is not alone to blame for the high goals against that can't be passed off on his backups alone, because when you dig deeper into the analytics and view teams through the metrics of Expected goals (xG) and High-danger scoring chances;

Using CA/60, xGA/60, and HDCA/60 in tandem, it shouldn't surprise to see Leafs among the bottom of the league and among the weaker NHL teams in terms of HDCA/60 and xGA/60 over this season.

When you look at actual vs expected for even a single stat like High Danger Goals Against (HDGA) ..#29 Toronto (93 GA). You realize that Andersen can't control where the shots are coming from and how many are coming against him, particularly those from high danger and odd man advantages. That is all on the defense and the team in front of him and their inability to defend or their mistakes and breakdowns that lead to goals against.

Its why you see Tyson Barrie or Cody Ceci mentioned often in this thread along with Andersen as the biggest disappointments this season because fans that are watching the games, are seeing these players leaving the Leafs goalie hanging high and dry by their mistakes or positioning and linking high goals against to Leaf losses.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Using CA/60, xGA/60, and HDCA/60 in tandem, it shouldn't surprise to see Leafs among the bottom of the league and among the worst NHL teams in terms of HDCA/60 and xGA/60 over this season.

Except... they're not bottom of the league in those things...

Toronto, 2019-2020

CA/60: 15th
xGA/60: 14th
HDCA/60: 19th

And even better when looking at just under Keefe.

 

[X66]

More recent play also often makes people forget that Hutchinson had a 0.914 save percentage in his limited games with us in 2018-2019, behind a worse defensive team. Hutchinson wasn't the long term answer, but he was a career 0.908 goalie coming into this season, which is pretty far off the 0.886 he put up with us this year.

I ironically made this exact same post this season lol.

GDT: - Leafs at Rangers Dec 20th

 

[zeke]

Using CA/60, xGA/60, and HDCA/60 in tandem, it shouldn't surprise to see Leafs among the bottom of the league and among the weaker NHL teams in terms of HDCA/60 and xGA/60 over this season.

okay there, trump.

All Strengths: #15 ca/60, #19 sa/60, #18 sca/60, #19 hdca/60, #15 xga/60
5v5 Adjusted: #14 ca/60, #18 sa/60, #18 sca/60, #19 hdca/60, #17 xga/60

Under Keefe:

All Strengths: #16 ca/60, #17 sa/60, #16 sca/60, #17 hdca/60, #10 xga/60
5v5 Adjusted: #13 ca/60, #14 sa/60, #17 sca/60, #16 hdca/60, #14 xga/60

Under Keefe with mostly healthy defense (i.e. pre-Rielly injury):

All Strengths: #15 ca/60, #18 sa/60, #16 sca/60, #7 hdca/60, #7 xga/60
5v5 Adjusted: #11 ca/60, #18 sa/60, #13 sca/60, #12 hdca/60, #10 xga/60

 

[Zybalto]

That is not something that should instill confidence heading into this play-in series and beyond for Leaf fans as neither Andersen's GAA nor sv% appear in the top 30 amongst his peers.

However he is not alone to blame for the high goals against that can't be passed off on his backups alone, because when you dig deeper into the analytics and view teams through the metrics of Expected goals (xG) and High-danger scoring chances;

Using CA/60, xGA/60, and HDCA/60 in tandem, it shouldn't surprise to see Leafs among the bottom of the league and among the weaker NHL teams in terms of HDCA/60 and xGA/60 over this season.

When you look at actual vs expected for even a single stat like High Danger Goals Against (HDGA) ..#29 Toronto (93 GA). You realize that Andersen can't control where the shots are coming from and how many are coming against him, particularly those from high danger and odd man advantages. That is all on the defense and the team in front of him and their inability to defend or their mistakes and breakdowns that lead to goals against.

Its why you see Tyson Barrie or Cody Ceci mentioned often in this thread along with Andersen as the biggest disappointments this season because fans that are watching the games, are seeing these players leaving the Leafs goalie hanging high and dry by their mistakes or positioning and linking high goals against to Leaf losses.

Maple Leafs D this year: (min 800 5v5 minutes)

Fewest High Danger chances against REL:

1. Dermott -1.3
2. Ceci -1.13
3. Muzzin -0.85
4. Holl -.03
5. Barrie +0.61
6. Rielly +0.63

Fewest High Danger goals against/60 REL:

1. Ceci -.25
2. Muzzin -.20
3. Holl -.16
4. Dermott -.01
5. Barrie +.08
6. Rielly +.23

The big standout to me this year in regard to high danger defense is that Rielly really struggled but we now know he was dealing with "lower body" issues which may explain much of the problems.

Barrie is never going to be good in this area but as long as he is able to create more goals than he allows and is deployed properly he can be a great asset to the team regardless. He has obviously underperformed expectations though.

Dermott and Holl took steps forward this year for sure and I think Dermott has even more room to grow if he can get the giveaways under control.

Muzzin and Ceci show why they are the go to tandem for defensive stops and the top PK unit. The fact they have these numbers while being paired with Rielly/Barrie for a good chunk of the season is pretty amazing.

Ceci in particular is interesting as he has been such a solid defensive player for the team this year and yet has certain people convinced he hasn't been. The analytics and actual results both agree he's great at stopping high danger chances/goals.......but narratives are almost impossible to stop once they get rolling.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Ceci in particular is interesting as he has been such a solid defensive player for the team this year and yet has certain people convinced he hasn't been. The analytics and actual results both agree he's great at stopping high danger chances/goals.......but narratives are almost impossible to stop once they get rolling.

QFT.

 

[Mess]

Maple Leafs D this year: (min 800 5v5 minutes)

Fewest High Danger chances against REL:

1. Dermott -1.3
2. Ceci -1.13
3. Muzzin -0.85
4. Holl -.03
5. Barrie +0.61
6. Rielly +0.63

Fewest High Danger goals against/60 REL:

1. Ceci -.25
2. Muzzin -.20
3. Holl -.16
4. Dermott -.01
5. Barrie +.08
6. Rielly +.23

The big standout to me this year in regard to high danger defense is that Rielly really struggled but we now know he was dealing with "lower body" issues which may explain much of the problems.

Barrie is never going to be good in this area but as long as he is able to create more goals than he allows and is deployed properly he can be a great asset to the team regardless. He has obviously underperformed expectations though.

Dermott and Holl took steps forward this year for sure and I think Dermott has even more room to grow if he can get the giveaways under control.

Muzzin and Ceci show why they are the go to tandem for defensive stops and the top PK unit. The fact they have these numbers while being paired with Rielly/Barrie for a good chunk of the season is pretty amazing.

Ceci in particular is interesting as he has been such a solid defensive player for the team this year and yet has certain people convinced he hasn't been. The analytics and actual results both agree he's great at stopping high danger chances/goals.......but narratives are almost impossible to stop once they get rolling.

Good breakdown and analysis.

Rielly and Barrie are the weaker links defensively but also face the toughest QofC at times, whereas Dermott would play more sheltered 3rd pairing minutes against lesser competition resulting in less mistakes and turnovers.

Ceci is prone to mistakes, but if he is playing top 4 or on the bottom pairing in a limited role those #'s you've presented also might reflect usage and QofC faced.

Natural Stick shows our Leafs were in the bottom 5-6 of the league in HDGA, HDSH% & HDSV% , giving up the most goals, most high danger shots% and lower save% from this chances surrendered.

For example the stats say Leafs gave up 122 HDGA which places them 26th in the league as highest goals allowed from high danger areas.

A lot of fans place the blame on Andersen for the most part, but he can't control how many and what kind of high danger scoring opportunities he faces as that falls on his teammates in front of him. His HDSV% is low, but that might also depend on quality of those chances he is facing also.

The eye test while watching our Leafs shows some egregious mistakes, giveaways and defensive zone breakdowns that lead to goals against, and these would be reflected in these negative stats that place the Leafs near the bottom of the league defensively in this respect.

What would you attribute that to?

Link: Team Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

 

[zeke]

Natural Stick shows our Leafs were in the bottom 5-6 of the league in HDGA, HDSH% & HDSV% , giving up the most goals, most high danger shots and lower save% from this chances surrendered.

Not high danger shots - High danger shooting percentage.

And that is the Leafs' shooting percentage on their own high danger offensive chances you are looking at, not their opponents'. Their opponents' shooting percentage is the inverse of the Leafs' save percentage. Your link shows the Leafs ranked 19th in high danger chances allowed, 26th in high danger save percentage, and 25th in high danger goals against. Under Keefe, those numbers improved to 17th in hdca, 13th in hdsv%, and 12th in hdga.

All the stats - high danger and otherwise - show the leafs allowing a middling amount of offense against, but receiving poor goaltending and thus high goals against.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Natural Stick shows our Leafs were in the bottom 5-6 of the league in HDGA, HDSH% & HDSV% , giving up the most goals, most high danger shots% and lower save% from this chances surrendered.

HDSH% is the conversion rate for Toronto's high danger shots. It has nothing to do with defense. Our high danger chances against are league average. HDGA is bad, because HDSV% is bad, because the goalies played bad.

 

[Gary Nylund]

HDSH% is the conversion rate for Toronto's high danger shots. It has nothing to do with defense. Our high danger chances against are league average. HDGA is bad, because HDSV% is bad, because the goalies played bad.

Not sure what Keefe has planned for camp before the games start again but to me, this seems like a good place to focus. League average is another way of saying mediocre and improving in this area would make us a better team. I also see no reason why we can't be better in this area so ... over to you coach.

 

[zeke]

Not sure what Keefe has planned for camp before the games start again but to me, this seems like a good place to focus. League average is another way of saying mediocre and improving in this area would make us a better team. I also see no reason why we can't be better in this area so ... over to you coach.

Always want to be better but it's nice to see that under keefe they actually ranked 7th in that department prior to the Rielly injury.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Always want to be better but it's nice to see that under keefe they actually ranked 7th in that department prior to the Rielly injury.

Yes there is no doubt in my mind that Keefe is a huge improvement over Babcock. Really excited to see what these guys are capable of when healthy and Keefe has had had an extensive period of time to work with them. Excited is even putting it mildly, I'm downright giddy when I consider the possibilities!

 

[ACC1224]

Always want to be better but it's nice to see that under keefe they actually ranked 7th in that department prior to the Rielly injury.

How many games did Rielly play under Keefe?

 

[Gary Nylund]

How many games did Rielly play under Keefe?

I think he was playing hurt.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Not sure what Keefe has planned for camp before the games start again but to me, this seems like a good place to focus. League average is another way of saying mediocre and improving in this area would make us a better team. I also see no reason why we can't be better in this area so ... over to you coach.

We should look to improve our team defense, but as a fanbase, we should understand that it's not the disaster that many suggest it is, and improvements can be made without trading massively valuable pieces for shiny names. Being league average despite the injuries this year is impressive.

 

[ACC1224]

I think he was playing hurt.

It's been so long I don't recall.

 

[Gary Nylund]

It's been so long I don't recall.

It's been so long it hurts!

 

[ACC1224]

It's been so long it hurts!

No doubt. I find now that the weather has come around I’m not missing it as much.

 

[zeke]

How many games did Rielly play under Keefe?

He played 23 for Babcock, then
He played 23 for Keefe, then
He missed 23 to injury, then
He came back for 1.

Those middle 23gms were beautiful. Hopefully that's what we're gonna get now that we're healthy again.

FYI those last 23gms also included many games missed by Muzzin and Ceci. I.e. our 3 toughest usage dmen.

 

[Gary Nylund]

We should look to improve our team defense, but as a fanbase, we should understand that it's not the disaster that many suggest it is, and improvements can be made without trading massively valuable pieces for shiny names. Being league average despite the injuries this year is impressive.

I'm not sure league average is ever impressive but whatever, impressive is a subjective term so ... whatever.

 

[Joey Hoser]

It's been so long I don't recall.

He admitted he was injured after the McDavid "incident".