Season is over - thoughts on 2019/2020

[zeke]

shockingly playing a wide open run and gun system will lead poor goaltending

It didn't lead to poor goaltending in recent years. Just this year.

 

[zeke]

They both dropped the ball this year, Hutch is all on Dubas, but Andersen is all on himself.

Do be fair to Andersen, I would have bet quite strongly on him continuing his hot recent play and finishing the season hot and getting his save percentage right back to his eerily consistent level by the end of the schedule.

 

[hotpaws]

Like I said, watch a game and them compare it right after.

Again, there is a reason the teams that are considered elite defensively are always at the top of those lists, and the teams that are bad are at the bottom.

i don't need to compare right after since i'm not going to waste time on a stat that says a shot on a breakaway has the exact same chance of going in as does a contested shot just because it came from the same area on the ice

 

[X66]

i don't need to compare right after since i'm not going to waste time on a stat that says a shot on a breakaway has the exact same chance of going in as does a contested shot just because it came from the same area on the ice

So you're just accepting being obtuse?

 

[zeke]

the point of these stats is to help mgmt make better decisions , it's not to try to try to win an argument on a hockey forum

flawed stats lead to flawed decisions so while it means nothing on these hockey forum i highly doubt NHL gm's would risk there job basing there decisions on a bunch of flawed stats like you seem to think they do

well, literally every single number has improved under Dubey other than save percentage, so that's a whole lot of flawed stats.

 

[LeafsNation75]

we have no idea what LL could have done but we do know Dubas was also trying to move Dion and couldn't and the rumors that were reported were teams were looking for even more retention than Dubas retained on Kessel

If that's true than why not give credit for Dubas not making a bad trade?

 

[hotpaws]

It didn't lead to poor goaltending in recent years. Just this year.

Andy is playing at 102 pt pace , if a goalie is letting the team down it's not him and it's on the GM who had to f*** with something that wasn't broken .

 

[hotpaws]

So you're just accepting being obtuse?

no i'm just using common sense unless you actually believe every shot attempt from an area has the exact same chance of going in

 

[X66]

Or saying a Marincin shot from 24/193 is the same as an OV shot from 24/193

The chart does not say that though.

It is saying that if you give any player multiple shots from that 24/193, that's not good, regardless who is shooting.

So whether you give Marinicin 10 shots in that zone or Ovechkin, the player doesn't matter, it just shows you're bad at defending.

 

[hotpaws]

well, literally every single number has improved under Dubey other than save percentage, so that's a whole lot of flawed stats.

exact point % but hey who give a f*** about that since we all know they award the cup based on advanced stats

 

[zeke]

Anyways.... @hotpaws

Andy is playing at 102 pt pace , if a goalie is letting the team down it's not him and it's on the GM who had to f*** with something that wasn't broken .

Actually his pace is better than that - you're counting no-decisions in his denominator - I.e. 65/52 = 102.5pt pace instead of 65/49 = 108.8pt pace. That being said, I would count two of those no-decisions as losses for freddy, as they were laid on Hutch only because the team made great comebacks to dig out of the hole that Freddy dug. So for me it's 65/51 = 105pt pace for Freddy this year.

Which says very, very good things about the team that it can play at a 105pt pace with only a .909sv%. Bump that up to Freddy's usual ~.918 and you're looking at closer to a 115pt pace.

But I think it's a stretch to say the team is at fault for Andy's dip in sv% from his ultra consistent career level. There's no shame in admitting Andy struggled this year, especially since it wasn't a full year and Andy seemed to be just getting on a hot streak at the end there.

But I like your idea of looking at Andy's record to judge the team and whether it's improved or not.

With Andy in net:

16-17 (.918): 103pt pace
17-18 (.918): 104pt pace
18-19 (.917): 108pt pace
19-20 (.909): 105pt pace

Last year we clearly did better with Freddy in net, even though he played at the same level. The large downgrade from McBackup to Sparks hurt the overall record though.

This year looks to me like we'd have been even better if Andy had maintained his level, but Andy struggled a bit....though it did look like he might salvage it with a late run before the lpckdown happened. Either way, that 105pt pace with only a .909sv% is actually the most impressive record we've put up with Andy yet.

 

[Menzinger]

As a reminder, this thread is about reflecting on things related the latest season. Take other off topic discussions to more appropriate threads.

 

[Primary Assist]

How sweet was that game before Christmas when we came back against the Canes?

 

[LeafsNation75]

How sweet was that game before Christmas when we came back against the Canes?

I remember listening to it through the NHL app because I was driving back home from Orlando, Florida and staying the night in Findlay, Ohio. Since my car has Sirux XM I subscribe to the NHL radio and got to hear Spezza's goal and Nylander's goal right before I arrived at my hotel for the evening. Once I got checked in that's when I saw they were leading 3-0 in the 1st period.

 

[Leafs87]

They gave the cock too many games. Decent coach but the team gave up on him long before the season started. Aside from that I’ll say it was okay, just okay. Don’t know if we would of made the playoffs and I’m still not sure how the play ins will go

 

[joe dirte]

The results of this season were pretty much exactly what i expected, but for reasons very different than i thought. I expected this season to end with similar results to last. I didnt think the defense was going to be better as many did. I always thought that there would be issues filling the roles that zaitsev and gardiner were filling. Zaitsev was their defensive minded guy along with hainsey and they have nobody to play that role now. I expected this to be a transition year that was more about dealing with contract issues. I expected next season to be the one where we see guys like ceci come off the books, sandin and lilje to take a bigger role, and that would create a bit of space to grab one solid defensive dman. And that would be when the team takes a big leap forward. Im concerned now that might be screwed up.

I never thought their biggest issues would be the coaching. And while that sucks i also think that its rather encouraging, because we know this team is capable of more than we were getting from babcock. If they can still add that defensive stud dman they can really do damage.

So its time for dubas to step up.

 

[Garthinater]

well, literally every single number has improved under Dubey other than save percentage, so that's a whole lot of flawed stats.

It's funny that "literally every single number has improved under dubey..."and yet our team points (the stat that actually matters) has gone down every season he has been in charge.

We've lost, on average, roughly 5 points per season with dubas at the helmet.

 

[zeke]

It's funny that "literally every single number has improved under dubey..."and yet our team points (the stat that actually matters) has gone down every season he has been in charge.

We've lost, on average, roughly 5 points per season with dubas at the helmet.

Why did you quote only half that sentence?

 

[FraumBallard]

Now that the season is over what are your thoughts and grades on what transpired?

Offense - B
Defense - C
Goaltending - D
Coaching - C
Management - C
Biggest surprise - Mikheyev
Disappointment - Barrie

Overall I found this to be a season that failed to meet my expectations.

I voted exceed.
I thought they would be bad.
They were worse than I thought they would be.

 

[Morbo]

Zaitsev was their defensive minded guy, that's very funny

 

[Morbo]

I voted exceed.
I thought they would be bad.
They were worse than I thought they would be.

Seems you're in need of a dictionary my friend.

 

[ShaneFalco]

It's funny that "literally every single number has improved under dubey..."and yet our team points (the stat that actually matters) has gone down every season he has been in charge.

We've lost, on average, roughly 5 points per season with dubas at the helmet.

Really though, the only stat that matters is playoff wins. Who cares if they finished 5 points better last year and went out in the first round? And all you have to do is look at Andersens performance for the 5 pts anyway

 

[ottomaddox]

I miss the days when Nylander was the regular season and playoff scapegoat. Now it's all Andersen (24-7-365).

 

[Martin Skoula]

The chart does not say that though.

It is saying that if you give any player multiple shots from that 24/193, that's not good, regardless who is shooting.

So whether you give Marinicin 10 shots in that zone or Ovechkin, the player doesn't matter, it just shows you're bad at defending.

Everyone knows that good defensive teams allow a lot of shots from the danger zone on purpose, the trick is obviously to "contest them". The Leafs need to stop allowing so many perimeter shots, how is Andersen supposed to save an unscreened wrist shot from a 3rd liner outside of the circle? If he faced more shots from the slot with bodies in front of him taking away his vision by "contesting" the shot, he'd make those saves without breaking a sweat.

 

[FraumBallard]

Seems you're in need of a dictionary my friend.

Sure.
Okay.