Season is over - thoughts on 2019/2020

[Zybalto]

So reading your stats provided does that suggest Muzzin faces the strongest QofC, however our shutdown pair of Muzzin and Holl are also the pairing that are credited with the most giveaways averaging > 3 giveaways each per 60?

Barrie and Dermott are the most sheltered in the Dzone via QofC but 2nd in terms of giveaways as a pairing despite facing easier competition.

Is that a correct interpretation?

Since I'm unsure of your source for this info may I ask how do Leafs Dman giveaways compare to the league average or maybe more relevant how do they compare to Columbus Dcore in these 2 categories?.

Source for giveaway data is natural stat trick. I'm not really sure how to track defensive team giveaway rankings but can only look at the individual stats for each dman. Looking at those, the Leafs D appears to have more overall giveaways but they are also more offensively inclined as well which brings up those totals.

 

[Mess]

Source for giveaway data is natural stat trick. I'm not really sure how to track defensive team giveaway rankings but can only look at the individual stats for each dman. Looking at those, the Leafs D appears to have more overall giveaways but they are also more offensively inclined as well which brings up those totals.

I was looking and Natural stick as well in terms of Scoring Chances For/Against (SCF and SCA) & High-Danger Corsi For/Against (HDCF and HDCA) in terms of expected goals and was wondering how your give-away stats/60 would tie in.

Our Leafs appear near the top of the league offensively viewing "For" but then nearer the bottom when viewing "Against" and of course then HDGF and HDGA follow those same results.

I guess it depends the location of those giveaway/60 results as in offensive or neutral or defensive zone, but it does appear the Leafs giveaways do results in a larger number of scoring chances/goals against metrics. Which I suppose makes sense because giveaways in the offensive zone would lead to less scoring chances and expected goals for as its loss of possession.

Then when watching the Leafs it does appear that the defensive zone giveaways and breakdowns that lead to goals against become more memorable when forming opinions on how Leafs Dmen are performing and which are more prone to mistakes.

Leafs "for" metrics are very strong, but I wonder how one would go about fixing the "against" metrics.. The analytics suggest that the Leafs system of attack might be too aggressive, which explains the for #'s, but is that coming at the expense of the "against" numbers as a result?

 

[Zybalto]

Just to add, in terms of pure QOC, based on opponents' ice time, Rielly stands heads and shoulders above the rest facing top-end first line qoc all season, while muzzin/holl/ceci all have strong but only borderline top line qoc (with muzz/holl on their way up and ceci on his way down), Barrie has light 2nd line competition, while Dermott has faced 3rd pair qoc.

If I were to split toiqoc in to graded tiers it would look like this:

Rielly A

Muzzin B+
Holl B+
Ceci B+

Barrie B-

Dermott C


But you're right that factoring in zone deployment, muzz/holl/ceci have many less ozone shifts than Rielly does.

Yea, it probably all comes down to how you factor in deployment. I tend to be sympathetic to Muzz/Ceci for all the minutes they put in defending leads and Holl didn't really get heavy responsibility until Keefe took over.

I'm not sure I would say Rielly was up against top lines when paired with Barrie for a significant chunk of the season but your right in that overall, he probably has faced the highest comp in terms of pure QoC.

 

[Mess]

Ceci in particular is interesting as he has been such a solid defensive player for the team this year and yet has certain people convinced he hasn't been. The analytics and actual results both agree he's great at stopping high danger chances/goals.......but narratives are almost impossible to stop once they get rolling.

I have figured out where this narrative of Ceci defensively comes from in regards to the eye test.

The Rielly - Ceci pairing (defensive pairs) is the Leafs d-pair that surrendered the most HDGA with 13, the Muzzin - Holl pairing is 2nd with 12, the Dermott -- Holl pairing is 3rd.

So when were seeing those goal against from high danger areas Ceci will stand out defensively, however as you have pointed out not via giveaways/60 not necessarily a result of his direct play.

Defensive Pairs - Natural Stat Trick

+Source Natural Stick.

 

[zeke]

Yea, it probably all comes down to how you factor in deployment. I tend to be sympathetic to Muzz/Ceci for all the minutes they put in defending leads and Holl didn't really get heavy responsibility until Keefe took over.

I'm not sure I would say Rielly was up against top lines when paired with Barrie for a significant chunk of the season but your right in that overall, he probably has faced the highest comp in terms of pure QoC.

Since the analytics community has decided to punt on the issue of qoc its hard to find the numbers. The only site that does provide opponents' ice time is corsica, and its down right now. But I kept track of it before it went down, and because the raw toiqoc number isn't all that usable, what ive been doing is simply dividing the difference between the highest and lowest into discrete tiers corresponding with letter grades. (Basically trying to turn it into a relative stat instead of a raw stat). And when you do that Rielly gets the A qoc, as he has every year for a while now. Ceci started out getting those matchups too but of course was eventually split from Mo and his qoc has steadily gone down.

The Rielly-Barrie pair actually received tougher qoc than the muzzin-holl pair for most of the time those 4 were healthy....though muzz/holl were steadily closing that gap by the time Mo was injured.

Remember that using toiqoc doesn't just necessarily mean going up against the other team's beat offensive lines but can also be going up against their big minute good possession defensive lines.

 

[Zybalto]

Since the analytics community has decided to punt on the issue of qoc its hard to find the numbers. The only site that does provide opponents' ice time is corsica, and its down right now. But I kept track of it before it went down, and because the raw toiqoc number isn't all that usable, what ive been doing is simply dividing the difference between the highest and lowest into discrete tiers corresponding with letter grades. (Basically trying to turn it into a relative stat instead of a raw stat). And when you do that Rielly gets the A qoc, as he has every year for a while now. Ceci started out getting those matchups too but of course was eventually split from Mo and his qoc has steadily gone down.

The Rielly-Barrie pair actually received tougher qoc than the muzzin-holl pair for most of the time those 4 were healthy....though muzz/holl were steadily closing that gap by the time Mo was injured.

Remember that using toiqoc doesn't just necessarily mean going up against the other team's beat offensive lines but can also be going up against their big minute good possession defensive lines.

Yea, I'm missing corsica myself and going off of memory and the fact that pairing was certainly less than sheltered when it came to ozone%.

Just having all the boys healthy back there is going to be nice and we can only hope Keefe finds the proper chemistry (a mysterious and key factor to any successful pairing we can't really track)

 

[Zybalto]

I have figured out where this narrative of Ceci defensively comes from in regards to the eye test.

The Rielly - Ceci pairing (defensive pairs) is the Leafs d-pair that surrendered the most HDGA with 13, the Muzzin - Holl pairing is 2nd with 12, the Dermott -- Holl pairing is 3rd.

So when were seeing those goal against from high danger areas Ceci will stand out defensively, however as you have pointed out not via giveaways/60 not necessarily a result of his direct play.

Defensive Pairs - Natural Stat Trick

+Source Natural Stick.

Yea, I love the defensive pairs tool they implemented there.

One thing to consider is to make sure to sort by "rate" to give you a more accurate representation. Its also important that things may look skewed anyways on a team that has recieved, let's say, inconsistant goaltending. Its why many folks use xGA to judge a pairings positives above actual goals.

The reason I think Ceci is maligned is because he tends to make a meal out of things past the redline and had a couple of high profile flubs (Patches goal) that makes a city and sports media notorious for exception/rule thinking when it comes to D, kick it into high gear.

He's been one of the better safe defensive RHD in the league this year if you care about goals against, high danger chances against, giveaways and PK ability against tough comp.

Don't think he's lasting here beyond this year unless he does some hero stuff in the playoffs but he'll get a solid contract somewhere else for sure. With Sandin and Liljegren ready for the jump, he'll be expendable.

 

[Mess]

Yea, I love the defensive pairs tool they implemented there.

One thing to consider is to make sure to sort by "rate" to give you a more accurate representation. Its also important that things may look skewed anyways on a team that has recieved, let's say, inconsistant goaltending. Its why many folks use xGA to judge a pairings positives above actual goals.

The reason I think Ceci is maligned is because he tends to make a meal out of things past the redline and had a couple of high profile flubs (Patches goal) that makes a city and sports media notorious for exception/rule thinking when it comes to D, kick it into high gear.

He's been one of the better safe defensive RHD in the league this year if you care about goals against, high danger chances against, giveaways and PK ability against tough comp.

Don't think he's lasting here beyond this year unless he does some hero stuff in the playoffs but he'll get a solid contract somewhere else for sure. With Sandin and Liljegren ready for the jump, he'll be expendable.

I was looking at the actual goals against stat at ES 5v5 for each Leaf Dman.

Barrie is credited with 71 goals On Ice Even goals against in 70 games which is by far the most. Ceci actually comes in 5th with 37 in 56 games.. So while he has played less games than Barrie he has this season been on the ice for almost 1/2 the same number as Barrie.

However combined with your earlier QofC ranking showing Ceci near the top and least giveaways and Barrie towards the bottom and more sheltered, with a higher giveaway rate, then it becomes rather obvious that the weak link of the Leafs Dcore defensively is Tyson. When he is on the ice is when the highest volume of pucks end up in Leafs net.

That is where one is going to expect the opposition to key on. Leaf fans should actually feel safer when Ceci is out there, even though it feels because of my earlier HDGA that Cody is also vunlerable.

NHL.com Stats

 

[Dekes For Days]

I was looking at the actual goals against stat at ES 5v5 for each Leaf Dman.

Once again, GA stats are heavily impacted by goaltending.

 

[Garthinater]

Really though, the only stat that matters is playoff wins. Who cares if they finished 5 points better last year and went out in the first round? And all you have to do is look at Andersens performance for the 5 pts anyway

The only way to get to the playoffs is to have enough points.

We were on track to barely make the postseason. How is that possible when 2 years ago we had 105 points and all of our big players are now older and more experienced? Theres no way its our gms fault for making bad trades and terrible signings, right?

Also, the team with top5 most goals against will most likely not be winning any series. Defense wins in the playoffs and dubs has severely hurt our back end.

 

[Garthinater]

Once again, GA stats are heavily impacted by goaltending.

Goaltending stats are heavily impacted by team defense. Our team defense was atrocious. Freddy was and is not the problem no matter how many times you guys try and make him the scapegoat.

August and September of 2019 I was told over and over again how this iteration of the maple leafs was the best we had ever seen.

Myself and others tried to stem the hype. Many knew this team was not all it was billed to be. Some even said we might barely make the postseason (shocking how accurate they were). We were chastised and harrassed. Called fake leaf fans.

Fast forward 9 months where we see that this team is heavily flawed and these same fans are now placing full blame on andersen.

Its astounding.

 

[zeke]

Goaltending stats are heavily impacted by team defense. Our team defense was atrocious. Freddy was and is not the problem no matter how many times you guys try and make him the scapegoat.

August and September of 2019 I was told over and over again how this iteration of the maple leafs was the best we had ever seen.

Myself and others tried to stem the hype. Many knew this team was not all it was billed to be. Some even said we might barely make the postseason (shocking how accurate they were). We were chastised and harrassed. Called fake leaf fans.

Fast forward 9 months where we see that this team is heavily flawed and these same fans are now placing full blame on andersen.

Its astounding.

literally every stat we have that attempts to isolate defense from goaltending clearly supports the notion that team defense under Keefe ranged from either mediocre to very good, and all were far better than any had ever been under Babcock.

Also, every stat we have that attempts to isolate goaltending from defense clearly supports the notion that Freddy has been significantly worse this year than his usual level, and that the backup goaltending was horrendous.

Might be a fluke, of course, but I doubt it.

 

[ShaneFalco]

The only way to get to the playoffs is to have enough points.

We were on track to barely make the postseason. How is that possible when 2 years ago we had 105 points and all of our big players are now older and more experienced? Theres no way its our gms fault for making bad trades and terrible signings, right?

Also, the team with top5 most goals against will most likely not be winning any series. Defense wins in the playoffs and dubs has severely hurt our back end.

What bad trades and signings ? How has he severely hurt our back-end?

They started the year off in a hole with clown coach and then has sub-par goaltending and the D pretty much decimated

 

[Garthinater]

literally every stat we have that attempts to isolate defense from goaltending clearly supports the notion that team defense under Keefe ranged from either mediocre to very good, and all were far better than any had ever been under Babcock.

Also, every stat we have that attempts to isolate goaltending from defense clearly supports the notion that Freddy has been significantly worse this year than his usual level, and that the backup goaltending was horrendous.

Might be a fluke, of course, but I doubt it.

Eye test and results > fancy stats.

The fact we regressed in the standings, our goals against got worse and our team effort was atrocious yet you can still try and point at meaningless stats as some sort of trump card is spectacular.

After seeing how poorly this team performed I thought for sure posters like you and dekes, who told me this team was the best leafs team yet (lol) would realize that they over hyped the leafs.

That you 2 could be so wrong last summer and then still ride your high horses around is honestly amusing.

Most around here would be wise to take your posts with a grain of salt.

 

[zeke]

What bad trades and signings ? How has he severely hurt our back-end?

They started the year off in a hole with clown coach and then has sub-par goaltending and the D pretty much decimated

And even with the clown coach, the injuries, and freddy's sub-par play....they're still at a 105pt pace with Freddy in net.

 

[LeafsNation75]

The only way to get to the playoffs is to have enough points.

We were on track to barely make the postseason. How is that possible when 2 years ago we had 105 points and all of our big players are now older and more experienced? Theres no way its our gms fault for making bad trades and terrible signings, right?

Also, the team with top5 most goals against will most likely not be winning any series. Defense wins in the playoffs and dubs has severely hurt our back end.

The funny thing about Dubas trades is that he tried to improve their defense with the additions of Jake Muzzin and Tyson Barrie.

What were Lou Lamoriello's trades prior to the trade deadline? In 2017 it was Brian Boyle. In 2018 despite rumors of being interested in Ryan McDonagh who fit a need on defense, instead he traded for Tomas Plekanec.

 

[zeke]

Eye test and results > fancy stats.

not just the fancy stats. literally all the stats.

The fact we regressed in the standings, our goals against got worse and our team effort was atrocious yet you can still try and point at meaningless stats as some sort of trump card is spectacular.

After seeing how poorly this team performed I thought for sure posters like you and dekes, who told me this team was the best leafs team yet (lol) would realize that they over hyped the leafs.

That you 2 could be so wrong last summer and then still ride your high horses around is honestly amusing.

Most around here would be wise to take your posts with a grain of salt.

and yet, they've reached a level of play this year that they never have before.

 

[4thline]

Eye test and results > fancy stats.

"Results are better than results."

Speaking of grains of salt...

 

[ShaneFalco]

Eye test and results > fancy stats.

The fact we regressed in the standings, our goals against got worse and our team effort was atrocious yet you can still try and point at meaningless stats as some sort of trump card is spectacular.

After seeing how poorly this team performed I thought for sure posters like you and dekes, who told me this team was the best leafs team yet (lol) would realize that they over hyped the leafs.

That you 2 could be so wrong last summer and then still ride your high horses around is honestly amusing.

Most around here would be wise to take your posts with a grain of salt.

Thank you bringer of truth.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Goaltending stats are heavily impacted by team defense.

We have stats that help isolate the difference between goaltender and defense. Literally everything suggests the main problem this year was goaltending.

August and September of 2019 I was told over and over again how this iteration of the maple leafs was the best we had ever seen. Myself and others tried to stem the hype. Many knew this team was not all it was billed to be. Some even said we might barely make the postseason (shocking how accurate they were).

You expected the team to have a coach run them into the ground, have countless injuries, and have the starting goalie that had carried our defense for 3 years drop off a cliff once the defense improved, in a season shortened by a global pandemic? Most of the reasons people insisted we would fail are not the reasons we have "failed" at all.

 

[Uncle Scrooge]

Obviously the team failed to meet expectations, end result wasn’t what was expected.

That said, i view this season as a positive. First of all it doesn’t matter anymore where they were in the standings, they’re playing in the ”playoffs” where literally anything can happen for a team as talented as the Leafs. Second, you always learn more from these type of seasons. What did the last 2 years teach the Leafs other than they’re talented? This year they had to battle injuries, do soulsearching regarding to effort, see what a coaching change did and didn’t do, and see how tough the league can be which you can sometimes forget. Plus the management probably saw things in a new light, maybe it results in some good ideas moving forward.

And hey, they might finally play more playoff games than usual which is always good, play-in or not.

I expect to see a hungry team wanting to figure it out and really maximize their potential in the future. If that doesn’t happen then there’s a big problem.

 

[Fogelhund]

Eye test and results > fancy stats.

The fact we regressed in the standings, our goals against got worse and our team effort was atrocious yet you can still try and point at meaningless stats as some sort of trump card is spectacular.

After seeing how poorly this team performed I thought for sure posters like you and dekes, who told me this team was the best leafs team yet (lol) would realize that they over hyped the leafs.

That you 2 could be so wrong last summer and then still ride your high horses around is honestly amusing.

Most around here would be wise to take your posts with a grain of salt.

Here is part of the bottom line.

Andersen wasn't as good as he's been in other years, we know that.... yet, the two players, Campbell and Andersen played at a 107 point pace combined.

Hutchinson was a disaster, KK wasn't NHL quality. Combined GAA approaching four... We can criticize Dubas et al., for starting the season with Hutch, yet that issue was addressed effectively, IMHO.

Next Rielly/Dermott/Ceci/Muzzin missed 68 games combined. I don't think our core is good enough defensively, but it's hard to overlook that these guys missed a quarter of the games... that's going to have a major impact on any team.

Ultimately, what happened in this season is pretty irrelevant... we are headed for the play-in series, and hopefully playoffs.... really, how we do here is what needs to be judged. I do hope that we can win a couple of series, and I'd love to go much further, but I think we need to fix some holes still. I believe that making deals, and finding the right players is harder than many people here believe, we can't just magically find the ideal D, that fixes our issues. I do hope this is addressed this off season, if possible.

 

[Menzinger]

Here is part of the bottom line.

Andersen wasn't as good as he's been in other years, we know that.... yet, the two players, Campbell and Andersen played at a 107 point pace combined.

Hutchinson was a disaster, KK wasn't NHL quality. Combined GAA approaching four... We can criticize Dubas et al., for starting the season with Hutch, yet that issue was addressed effectively, IMHO.

Next Rielly/Dermott/Ceci/Muzzin missed 68 games combined. I don't think our core is good enough defensively, but it's hard to overlook that these guys missed a quarter of the games... that's going to have a major impact on any team.

Ultimately, what happened in this season is pretty irrelevant... we are headed for the play-in series, and hopefully playoffs.... really, how we do here is what needs to be judged. I do hope that we can win a couple of series, and I'd love to go much further, but I think we need to fix some holes still. I believe that making deals, and finding the right players is harder than many people here believe, we can't just magically find the ideal D, that fixes our issues. I do hope this is addressed this off season, if possible.

I know folks will say every team deals with injuries, but few have to deal with their #1 D + another top 4 D injured at thr same time.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Next Rielly/Dermott/Ceci/Muzzin missed 68 games combined. I don't think our core is good enough defensively, but it's hard to overlook that these guys missed a quarter of the games... that's going to have a major impact on any team.

Ultimately, what happened in this season is pretty irrelevant... we are headed for the play-in series, and hopefully playoffs.... really, how we do here is what needs to be judged. I do hope that we can win a couple of series, and I'd love to go much further, but I think we need to fix some holes still. I believe that making deals, and finding the right players is harder than many people here believe, we can't just magically find the ideal D, that fixes our issues. I do hope this is addressed this off season, if possible.

I've said this from the start and even now, these playins/playoffs are going to be such a huge variance fest IMO that it's not clear how much even that will tell us.

Hard to judge anything really with so many injuries and a new coach taking over, gonna have to wait until next season to have a strong opinion either way. Unless of course we make it to the finals a few months from now, then I will say all questions have been answered.

 

[qqaz]

My takeaway from this season was how disappointing the D group was. Aside from Muzzin and Holl, everyone on the blueline was a letdown.

There was a hope that either Liljegren or Sandin would grab a permanent spot on the team, but neither did. That's fine, they're not busts. But it is a let down.

Barrie was supposed to be the big addition to the defence, and he was trash under Babcock. And even when he started getting points under Keefe, he's still way worse in his own zone that I thought he would be. I don't even want him to return next season, where as I thought he would be a huge upgrade on Gardiner.

I figured Ceci would be able to play consistently in the top 4, and maybe be a consistent partner for Rielly at 5on5. But he was trash anywhere except the PK. The price to ditch Zaitsev was worse than I expected.

Dermott failed to take the "next step" and establish himself as anything more than a 3rd pairing guy. He played almost the exact average ice time as the season before. And that's in spite of opportunity when injuries popped up. He was bland the entire season, and I don't see a spot for him now with Muzz extended.

Rielly also had a down year. Played hurt, it's true. But you can't call it a good year for him after the breakout the year before.

We need some new faces in this group. Goodbye Barrie and Ceci. Probably Dermott, too. And if the price for a real top pairing guy to play with Rielly includes sending one of Sandin or Liljegren, then it's time to consider it.