Sean Couturier Signed to Extension (6 Years $4.33M AAV)

[sa cyred]

I'm totally fine waiting on signing Schenn, but Schenn and Raffl are not all that close. Brayden Schenn had 47 points last season at age 23. Michael Raffl has 50 in his career and he's 26. That's not the end all be all but it is certainly a nice starting point. And while Raffl has good attributes elsewhere, so too does Brayden Schenn, despite what folks around here seem to think.

Again I think its closer than people think. Age aside, schenn spend almost HALF his shifts (including ES, and PP) with Giroux and Voracek. Raffl spend less time with those two and played barely any PP time while Schenn was on the top PP all season long. High hopes, but if Raffl is on the top line this season, I think he will hit 40-50 points, which would be him progressing in an upward trend. I can see some dont even think he will hit 20 goals, but We can reup this thread if he does hit 50 . Trust me I have seen crazier stuff.

Yea I would seriously hope that Schenn would have more points. Again I am not saying Raffl is better but I think right now it is alot closer than what people think. I think the one thing, obviusly, holding people back is because one is undrafted and the other was drafted 5th overall.

 

[Random Forest]

I think the one thing, obviusly, holding people back is because one is undrafted and the other was drafted 5th overall.

I actually think that's what's holding you guys back. If Schenn was an undrafted nobody who showed the ability to put up ~20 goals and 50 points, everyone would love him.

 

[sa cyred]

I actually think that's what's holding you guys back. If Schenn was an undrafted nobody who showed the ability to put up ~20 goals and 50 points, everyone would love him.

I'm not hating on Schenn here. I am fairly neutral on him. I think we can all agree though that this up and coming season as a 24 year old will ve pretty important. I am interested in seeing how much he has progressed and how he does if he isnt with Giroux and Voracek for the most part. But hey if he clicks with couturier, I am all for it!

Like truely let me ask you, you don't think they had a pretty even season last year?

 

[Random Forest]

I'm not hating on Schenn here. I am fairly neutral on him. I think we can all agree though that this up and coming season as a 24 year old will ve pretty important. I am interested in seeing how much he has progressed and how he does if he isnt with Giroux and Voracek for the most part. But hey if he clicks with couturier, I am all for it!

Like truely let me ask you, you don't think they had a pretty even season last year?

Absolutely not. Raffl had a good season for his standards. He was a solid finisher and wore several different hats. But he didn't actually generate as much offense as Schenn. It's all about relative standards. Raffl exceeded his, and Schenn didn't. That leads people to believe Raffl was better but it's just not true.

That doesn't mean there aren't things Raffl does better, but Raffl is a versatile top nine guy. Schenn is a bona fide top six scorer. Plus it's entirely possible, if not likely, that Raffl never hits 20 goals again.

 

[Curufinwe]

Raffl barely got any powerplay time, but at ES he generated significantly more offense than BSchenn did.

ES points per 60 minutes and OZ start %
Voracek ~ 2.30 ~ 61%
White ~ 1.81 ~ 54%
Raffl ~ 1.74 ~ 57%
Giroux ~ 1.62 ~ 54%
Lecavalier ~ 1.57 ~ 59%
Simmonds ~ 1.52 ~ 53%
Couturier ~ 1.46 ~ 40%
Schenn ~ 1.46 ~ 58%
Read ~ 1.29 ~ 41%
VandeVelde ~ 1.26 ~ 51%
Umberger ~ 1.01 ~ 47%
Laughton ~ 0.85 ~ 51%
Bellemare ~ 0.83 ~ 49%
Rinaldo ~ 0.72 ~ 49%

I actually think that's what's holding you guys back. If Schenn was an undrafted nobody who showed the ability to put up ~20 goals and 50 points, everyone would love him.

Not after he did so poorly playing with Giroux and Voracek at ES. Even though he ended up with a good amount of points thanks to his success on the first PP unit, his struggles on the first line were alarming.

 

[flyersfan018]

I'm the most amazed at Couturier's 40% OZ starts. That's nuts.

 

[Hiesenberg]

I'm the most amazed at Couturier's 40% OZ starts. That's nuts.

But he needs to figure out how to score more points - per Berube

 

[Curufinwe]

Yup, it really stands out. 18% fewer than BSchenn, but he scored just as many ES points per minute. And their QoC wasn't close.

But he needs to figure out how to score more points - per Berube

It's pretty satisfying how the end of season played out:

-Berube throws Couturier under the bus
-Hextall defends Couturier in a press conference
-Hextall fires Berube and hires Hakstol
-Hextall gives Couturier a six year extension
-Berube remains unemployed

 

[flyershockey]

I'm a massive fan of this deal. The second most important player on the roster (as it's currently constructed) is locked up through the bulk of his prime.

 

[FlyerFaithful17]

I'm not hating on Schenn here. I am fairly neutral on him. I think we can all agree though that this up and coming season as a 24 year old will ve pretty important. I am interested in seeing how much he has progressed and how he does if he isnt with Giroux and Voracek for the most part. But hey if he clicks with couturier, I am all for it!

Like truely let me ask you, you don't think they had a pretty even season last year?

Schenn and Couturier both need to prove their worth sooner or later. I really think the Couturier deal will be a steal in a few years since it is more difficult to hone a defensive game and he already has that area largely taken care of.

 

[Random Forest]

Raffl barely got any powerplay time, but at ES he generated significantly more offense than BSchenn did.

ES points per 60 minutes and OZ start %
Voracek ~ 2.30 ~ 61%
White ~ 1.81 ~ 54%
Raffl ~ 1.74 ~ 57%
Giroux ~ 1.62 ~ 54%
Lecavalier ~ 1.57 ~ 59%
Simmonds ~ 1.52 ~ 53%
Couturier ~ 1.46 ~ 40%
Schenn ~ 1.46 ~ 58%
Read ~ 1.29 ~ 41%
VandeVelde ~ 1.26 ~ 51%
Umberger ~ 1.01 ~ 47%
Laughton ~ 0.85 ~ 51%
Bellemare ~ 0.83 ~ 49%
Rinaldo ~ 0.72 ~ 49%

Your numbers don't prove that Raffl was the one "generating" that offense. It's also entirely devoid of context. Raffl likely won't be matching his SH% again and he had few assists for playing 64% of his minutes with Giroux and Voracek. In comparison, Schenn played 41% of his minutes with those two. That affects your per 60 numbers.

I mean, are you suggesting that Lecavalier is better than Simmonds at generating offense at ES? Clearly not. So that means these numbers aren't really meaningful unless you have another point to make with it.

Not after he did so poorly playing with Giroux and Voracek at ES. Even though he ended up with a good amount of points thanks to his success on the first PP unit, his struggles on the first line were alarming.

I don't know if I would call it a "struggle" on the first line for Schenn. It didn't fit great, but he wasn't any worse with those two than he was elsewhere. He just never got hot on the top line.

 

[BackWithaVengeance]

Alright, the resigning sealed the deal. Time to get my own Couturier jersey.

Any advice where to buy one if you live in Europe?

 

[Curufinwe]

Your numbers don't prove that Raffl was the one "generating" that offense. It's also entirely devoid of context. Raffl likely won't be matching his SH% again and he had few assists for playing 64% of his minutes with Giroux and Voracek. In comparison, Schenn played 41% of his minutes with those two. That affects your per 60 numbers.

I mean, are you suggesting that Lecavalier is better than Simmonds at generating offense at ES? Clearly not. So that means these numbers aren't really meaningful unless you have another point to make with it.

I don't know if I would call it a "struggle" on the first line for Schenn. It didn't fit great, but he wasn't any worse with those two than he was elsewhere. He just never got hot on the top line.

So my numbers don't prove Raffl was "generating" the ES points that he scored. Where are your numbers proving that BSchenn generated more offense than Raffl?

Lecavalier was given the second easiest minutes on the team and 59% Off Zone starts. Simmonds was not. You can also see here that Raffl got harder minutes than BSchenn did.

http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_stat...3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67#

And BSchenn was clearly worse with Giroux and Voracek than elsewhere.

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=1251&withagainst=true&season=2014-15&sit=5v5

BSchenn had 7 points in 430+ minutes with them. He had 18 points in the 640 minutes without them.

 

[Curufinwe]

More proof that Brayden Schenn was worse playing with Giroux and Voracek than he was elsewhere in the lineup.

http://alongtheboards.com/2015/07/finding-brayden-schenns-niche/

The Flyers have a real area of need at left wing. The only ‘natural’ left wingers likely to play for the Flyers in the coming season are Michael Raffl and Pierre-Édouard Bellemare, who were also the only two natural left wingers on the team last season. It is therefore understandable that throughout 2014-15 Brayden Schenn was deployed most often at left wing in the Flyers line-up. Schenn spent over 40% of his even strength minutes on the left wing of the Flyers first line, with Claude Giroux and Jakub Voracek.

Such line-mates would be the stuff of dreams for most young NHLers, but Brayden Schenn’s production was not boosted playing alongside the Flyers two star offensive weapons, surprisingly Schenn produced more offense when away from Giroux and Voracek than alongside them. (1.35 GF/60 with Giroux compared to 2.07 GF.60 when apart) He generally looked a step behind the two cerebral play-makers, who were in turn far more productive without Schenn riding shotgun (Giroux had 1.35 GF/60 with Schenn, compared to 2.63 GF/60 without).

The line was simply not a fit for any of the players on it, and negatively affected all three players offense. Schenn’s fortunes on the Flyers first line were in contrast to Michael Raffl’s, whose faster style of play complimented Giroux and Voracek, and resulted in all three players numbers being boosted when they lined up together. It therefore seems likely that Raffl will start the upcoming season on Giroux’s left wing, and for good reason.

 

[Random Forest]

I'll respond to your points when I'm not on my mobile later. But in general, you're making some categorical assumptions because a couple of numbers point you in that direction. It's not as cut and dry as you're making it appear.

 

[sa cyred]

Absolutely not. Raffl had a good season for his standards. He was a solid finisher and wore several different hats. But he didn't actually generate as much offense as Schenn. It's all about relative standards. Raffl exceeded his, and Schenn didn't. That leads people to believe Raffl was better but it's just not true.

That doesn't mean there aren't things Raffl does better, but Raffl is a versatile top nine guy. Schenn is a bona fide top six scorer. Plus it's entirely possible, if not likely, that Raffl never hits 20 goals again.

But truely... based on what? You are dismissing the numbers pretty easily and not really backing it up with anything. Curufinwe is backing it up with numbers here, but you saying its "not that easy". Like I am pretty confused because, it is almost a forgone conclusion with everyone here and elsewhere that Schenn did not perform well when with Giroux & Voracek. There is the eye test and stats to back this up.

Right now, how Schenn is playing, you think he is a bonafide top 6 forward? Like it is kinda crazy that one "can improve" while the other "will most likely not hit 20 goals". Again, I feel like one being 5th overall and the other non-drafted is affecting people's opinions here.

 

[Random Forest]

Again, I'm on a mobile device so forgive me for not presenting you with detailed numbers. For now, all I can say is that Curufinwe's analysis is pretty simplistic. It's not as simple as sorting the stats by ESP/60 and picking the higher rated guy. I'm not even arguing that Raffl isn't a better fit alongside Giroux and Voracek-- I'm claiming that Schenn is a better offensive player than Raffl. Big difference.


That said, I don't necessarily think Schenn can't work alongside Giroux and Voracek. It's been tried once for an extended time, and I don't think a single sample is enough to prove that he is definitively a bad fit there. But that's not even related to my point, so I digress.

As for your "based on what" question-- Raffl's elevated shooting percentage is a start. I'd be shocked if he hits 16% again next year.

 

[Tripod]

More proof that Brayden Schenn was worse playing with Giroux and Voracek than he was elsewhere in the lineup.

http://alongtheboards.com/2015/07/finding-brayden-schenns-niche/

So G and Jake were holding BSchenn back. Interesting.

As we all "should" know, numbers can be used to show different things to different people. As I just showed, someone "could" say that G and Jake held Schenn back and the numbers support this.

Personally, not a chance would I take Raffl over Schenn. As HF7 said, expectations play into things...but in both sides of the argument. Some people will want Schenn over a Raffl due to expectations of where Schenn was drafted. And some think Raffl was better than Schenn due to "fit" on the team.

I personally think Raffl still can put up more points than he has. But I also expect his Shooting% to drop. He could be a 20-20 guy which is still valuable. But as I said earlier, Raffl is CURRENTLY more comparable to Eric Fehr. Time will tell if he becomes more.

Schenn just had his best year to date yet doesn't seem to fit except when moved beside Couts. But he still can be a 60 point guy if he has a season where he IS a fit in a line. And that type of potential, Raffl just does not have IMO.

 

[Curufinwe]

I don't see he how you can argue the merits of Raffl and BSchenn based on overall point totals when the moron Berube gave Raffl almost no chance to play on the Powerplay, and when he finally did give him less than 30 minutes at the end of the season he immediately scored two goals.

Again, I'm on a mobile device so forgive me for not presenting you with detailed numbers. For now, all I can say is that Curufinwe's analysis is pretty simplistic.

And your contentions are factually incorrect.

[Raffl] didn't actually generate as much offense as Schenn - false

[BSchenn] he wasn't any worse with those two than he was elsewhere - false

 

[Random Forest]

And your contentions are factually incorrect.

Lol.

My only contention is that Schenn is a better offensive player than Raffl.

If you are claiming this to be "factually incorrect" then you have only proved my point above about making categorical statements on inadequate data. I truly hope you don't think you proved Raffl is a better offensive player with the few numbers you've provided. Please tell me you don't think that.

 

[Curufinwe]

Nope. You also claimed BSchenn was no worse with Giroux and Voracek than he was elsewhere in the lineup, despite the fact he generated almost twice as much offense when playing on lines without them.

 

[sa cyred]

I don't see he how you can argue the merits of Raffl and BSchenn based on overall point totals when the moron Berube gave Raffl almost no chance to play on the Powerplay, and when he finally did give him less than 30 minutes at the end of the season he immediately scored two goals.



And your contentions are factually incorrect.

[Raffl] didn't actually generate as much offense as Schenn - false

[BSchenn] he wasn't any worse with those two than he was elsewhere - false

More things to add:

Raffl: 7.14% of his points came on the PP
Schenn: 40.42% of his points came on the PP

Raffl: 14.01 TOI per game
Schenn: 17:04 TOI per game

Raffl: 28:38 total PP minutes, 9th most on team (25 seconds a game)
Schenn: 244:48 total PP minutes, 3rd most on team (2:59 minutes a game)

 

[Ernest95]

Good contract, glad we have him signed for a good while. One of my favorite flyers

 

[Random Forest]

Nope. You also claimed BSchenn was no worse with Giroux and Voracek than he was elsewhere in the lineup, despite the fact he generated almost twice as much offense when playing on lines without them.

So Schenn went cold for 20 games alongside Giroux and Voracek. I don't deny that. Has he not gone cold for ~20 games with other line mates though? I only contend with definitively concluding a causal relationship between Schenn going cold and Schenn playing with Giroux and Voracek. It's not out of the ordinary for Schenn to disappear for prolonged periods of time, so I don't understand how people can be so confident in concluding a causal relationship there.

Note: I am NOT saying Schenn is a good fit there. I am only saying you have way too much confidence in one extended stretch of play to tell a complete story.

 

[Curufinwe]

Flyers twitter has been posting a bunch of Couturier gifs today.