Scouting the Possible Contenders and what they could use from Detroit.

[Frk It]

All goalies or top goalie selections?

I'm just asking because you said you wouldn't want volatile Bob, who went undrafted, instead of the top 2 defensive prospects in Hickey and Alzner, neither of which are even in the NHL anymore. I just think it's noteworthy you would have been happy with an Alzner pick and furious with a goalie pick in that instance.

Of course I want a home run top 5 defender pick, but if that's not available... I want the great goalie. Lots and lots of these top skaters do not turn out as good as MAF, so I don't have a "no goalie" rule.

I never said I would take Hickey/Alzner over Bobrovsky. Saying I wouldn’t take a goalie top 5 does not mean I condone bad drafting of non-goalie picks.

I think consistent goaltending is an oxymoron. Lundqvist and Luongo are like the only consistent goalies I can think of in recent memory. Everyone else is a rollercoaster ride. I’m not riding those roller coasters with you Bench. Not when the cost of admission is a top 5 pick.

 

[Bench]

I never said I would take Hickey/Alzner over Bobrovsky. Saying I wouldn’t take a goalie top 5 does not mean I condone bad drafting of non-goalie picks.

I think consistent goaltending is an oxymoron. Lundqvist and Luongo are like the only consistent goalies I can think of in recent memory. Everyone else is a rollercoaster ride. I’m not riding those roller coasters with you Bench. Not when the cost of admission is a top 5 pick.

What I'm saying is your mentality means you wouldn't draft Carey Price. And unless you had the #1 overall pick (Crosby), that means you drafted Bobby Ryan (not in NHL), Jack Johnson (depth defender), Benoit Pouliot (not in NHL) in the top 5.

Oh but there was a guy drafted right after Price that was great? Um. Next picks are Gilbert Brule (not in NHL), Jack Skille (not in NHL), Setoguchi (not in NHL), Brian Lee (not in NHL), and Luc Bourdon (not in NHL).

What I'm saying is... maybe the no goalie rule shouldn't be a rule when you see results like that. Price was a fantastic pick at that spot, even if he has a down year or two. You say goalies are too inconsistent? Dude, only 2 of those skaters are even in the NHL by age 32. Carey Price is a bastion of consistency by comparison.

I'll take the top pick Carey Price rollercoaster over the Bobby Ryan rollercoaster or the half dozen other guys I barely remember on that list.

 

[MBH]

I'll take the top pick Carey Price rollercoaster over the Bobby Ryan rollercoaster or the half dozen other guys I barely remember on that list.

The problem is that goalies are so volatile in the modern age. One season you're worth every penny of your $10M salary. The next, it looks like the worst contract in the NHL - one that will kill your franchise for the next 6 years.

MA Fleury was another high goalie pick. Dude was considered the weak link in Pittsburgh.
They moved him out to make way for the cheaper, next great young goalie in Murray.
Murray has been one of the worst goalies in hockey in two of the last three years. While MA Fleury turned in perhaps his best season and has been solid the other two.

 

[Bench]

The problem is that goalies are so volatile in the modern age. One season you're worth every penny of your $10M salary. The next, it looks like the worst contract in the NHL.

That's because you're putting a spotlight on the handful of deals. Dozens of bad player contracts are thrown around all the time, but it doesn't mean we say, "Oh boy Milan Lucic was a bad contract, don't give a big, forward a long deal..."

We could make a huge list of contract busts that were proven skaters that fell off a cliff. It's not just goalies. Lecavlier, Brad Richards, Nathan Horton, Redden, Clarkson, Seabrook, Eriksson...

 

[MBH]

I don't see a team like Florida, or Calgary, or Edmonton making it a priority to acquire a backup goalie for playoffs. Those are teams who are fighting for wild card spots, not contending for the cup, and would have more pressing needs. And regardless, if you are a contending team looking to add a solid veteran backup, I think you will heavily consider playoff track record, of which Bernier's isn't very good. Of course if there's some team out there willing to toss a pick our way, who here wouldn't be thrilled with that?

I disagree on FLorida. Decent goaltending is possibly the only thing between the Panthers and the playoffs.
I think they have to bring in a Bernier-type guy. Capable. Experienced. And potentially VERY CHEAP.

Teams don't go get backup goalies for playoff records. They do it for peace of mind.

Toronto, Winnipeg and Florida need something better than what they have.

 

[Frk It]

What I'm saying is your mentality means you wouldn't draft Carey Price. And unless you had the #1 overall pick (Crosby), that means you drafted Bobby Ryan (not in NHL), Jack Johnson (depth defender), Benoit Pouliot (not in NHL) in the top 5.

Oh but there was a guy drafted right after Price that was great? Um. Next picks are Gilbert Brule (not in NHL), Jack Skille (not in NHL), Setoguchi (not in NHL), Brian Lee (not in NHL), and Luc Bourdon (not in NHL).

What I'm saying is... maybe the no goalie rule shouldn't be a rule when you see results like that. Price was a fantastic pick at that spot, even if he has a down year or two. You say goalies are too inconsistent? Dude, only 2 of those skaters are even in the NHL by age 32. Carey Price is a bastion of consistency by comparison.

I'll take the top pick Carey Price rollercoaster over the Bobby Ryan rollercoaster or the half dozen other guys I barely remember on that list.

Carey Price was the 3rd guy I was considering in that exception group. I don't know, I think I am remembering the Fleury rollercoaster here in Pittsburgh. He had that 4 year stretch where he was under .900 in the playoffs and I thought he was hamstringing that franchise from winning a Cup with 2 of the best players of their generation. Then he goes to Vegas and all of a sudden he's just good again. And he was a #1 overall freaking pick.

I just hate it. I have seen unbeatable guys become beatable for no reason. Theodore, Mason, Raycroft, etc. I just don't trust the position. I rated Spencer Knight in the top 15 for the first time last year since I started making draft lists. I have Askarov around 7-10 for this draft. I think that is reasonable. I will listen to drafting a goalie high, but top 5 just seems too hard to justify in my eyes. There are some bad players that get taken 3-5, but there are also a lot of good players that get taken 3-5, and in my opinion those players help their teams a lot more than most goalies would.

 

[MBH]

That's because you're putting a spotlight on the handful of deals. Dozens of bad player contracts are thrown around all the time, but it doesn't mean we say, "Oh boy Milan Lucic was a bad contract, don't give a big, forward a long deal..."

We could make a huge list of contract busts that were proven skaters that fell off a cliff. It's not just goalies. Lecavlier, Brad Richards, Nathan Horton, Redden, Clarkson, Seabrook, Eriksson...

Right.
But it's so hard to get ANY value out of a malfunctioning highly paid goalie.
You can make Lucic a heavy hitting third liner and while overpaid, he can still contribute value.

I'm looking at the top 13 highest paid players in the NHL.
1. McDavid
2. Panarin
3. Matthews
4, Karlsson
5. Doughty
6. Tavares
7. Marner
8. Toews
9. Kane
10. Eichel
11. Eichel
12. Kopitar
13. Bobrovsky

I think you could trade everyone on that list except Bobrovsky and Price.
They're toxic contracts at this point.

Somehow, since the dawn of the cap era, goaltending has come voodoo. Maybe it always was and I just didn't pay attention.

But if you draft a goalie top 5 and he lives up to his billing, chances are he's going to get paid like Price or Bobrovsky.
And then maybe or even likely turn in these dismal Price/Bobrovsky contracts that turn your star goalie into an anchor.

Maybe Bob and Price aren't reasons for their struggles.

And what's the alternative? Not drafting goalies? Bob wasn't drafted high, so what's the difference?

I just look at the rest of that top 13 highest paid list and think, man, I could probably live with any of those other contracts.

 

[Bench]

Carey Price was the 3rd guy I was considering in that exception group. I don't know, I think I am remembering the Fleury rollercoaster here in Pittsburgh. He had that 4 year stretch where he was under .900 in the playoffs and I thought he was hamstringing that franchise from winning a Cup with 2 of the best players of their generation. Then he goes to Vegas and all of a sudden he's just good again. And he was a #1 overall freaking pick.

I just hate it. I have seen unbeatable guys become beatable for no reason. Theodore, Mason, Raycroft, etc. I just don't trust the position. I rated Spencer Knight in the top 15 for the first time last year since I started making draft lists. I have Askarov around 7-10 for this draft. I think that is reasonable. I will listen to drafting a goalie high, but top 5 just seems too hard to justify in my eyes. There are some bad players that get taken 3-5, but there are also a lot of good players that get taken 3-5, and in my opinion those players help their teams a lot more than most goalies would.

I mean, I get it. I do. Goaltending is so much more mental than the other positions, like an NFL kicker, so a guy can seem like a sure thing and then not.

But for my money, that's why it's all the more important to get one of the elite. Chasing the hot hand leaves teams with goaltending issues for years. And there's nothing more deflating to a team than losing by goaltending.

 

[Bench]

I think you could trade everyone on that list except Bobrovsky and Price.
They're toxic contracts at this point.

Toews?

And Bob will be fine. He's in the first half of his first season on the new team. A little patience.

 

[Frk It]

I mean, I get it. I do. Goaltending is so much more mental than the other positions, like an NFL kicker, so a guy can seem like a sure thing and then not.

But for my money, that's why it's all the more important to get one of the elite. Chasing the hot hand leaves teams with goaltending issues for years. And there's nothing more deflating to a team than losing by goaltending.

Another way to negate that though is build a strong team in front of your goalie. Then I believe a number of guys could do the job. Like how Chicago won with Niemi, let him walk, then won with Crawford.

I much prefer the reverse approach. Instead of finding an elite goalie and building your team out... I would much rather find elite skaters and then find a goalie last.

 

[MBH]

Toews?

And Bob will be fine. He's in the first half of his first season on the new team. A little patience.

Toews is overpaid - but he's still a very good center.
You don't have to hide him.

I think Karlsson's contract is likely going to be the worst non-goalie contract on that list.

I didn't think Bob was good enough to get this kind of coin anyway.

 

[Bench]

Another way to negate that though is build a strong team in front of your goalie. Then I believe a number of guys could do the job. Like how Chicago won with Niemi, let him walk, then won with Crawford.

But then they signed Crawford to a 6 year deal, meaning they valued that stability at the position enough to lock him up to age 35.

Crawford was also a 2nd rounder, which I think we might agree is a better spot to start hunting goalies. I'm not ALL IN on the early goalie pick. I'm just way, way more open to it than most and I like to make that case when it presents itself.

 

[Frk It]

But then they signed Crawford to a 6 year deal, meaning they valued that stability at the position enough to lock him up to age 35.

Crawford was also a 2nd rounder, which I think we might agree is a better spot to start hunting goalies. I'm not ALL IN on the early goalie pick. I'm just way, way more open to it than most and I like to make that case when it presents itself.

I think the situation also matters a ton.

For New Jersey, who has two #1 overall picks used on centers in the last couple drafts, I think taking Askarov at 4/5 could make sense and be a good idea.

But for Detroit, who has needs everywhere, I don’t think it would be nearly as good of an idea.

 

[Bench]

For New Jersey, who has two #1 overall picks used on centers in the last couple drafts, I think taking Askarov at 4/5 could make sense and be a good idea.

Even with MacKenzie Blackwood emerging as the starter? Taken 42nd overall - is the 2nd round our goalie sweet spot?

 

[SirloinUB]

That's because you're putting a spotlight on the handful of deals. Dozens of bad player contracts are thrown around all the time, but it doesn't mean we say, "Oh boy Milan Lucic was a bad contract, don't give a big, forward a long deal...".

In regards to the bolded, you're doing what exactly by identifying Price as worthy of a top 5 selection? Perhaps putting a spot light on one of the few exceptions?

Maybe Askarov is one of the exceptions as well or maybe he is more Jack Campbell. Either way, Id prefer to bet on a skater if we are talking about a top 5 pick.

 

[Bench]

In regards to the bolded, you're doing what exactly by identifying Price as worthy of a top 5 selection? Perhaps putting a spot light on one of the few exceptions?

Maybe Askarov is one of the exceptions as well or maybe he is more Jack Campbell. Either way, Id prefer to bet on a skater if we are talking about a top 5 pick.

Jack Campbell is still an NHL goalie. I can list dozens of guys taken around his spot that aren't in the league. That's my point. These guys get a bad rap because the bad skater picks fade into the noise of the many others that didn't pan out. But we all remember that top goalie pick.

 

[Frk It]

Even with MacKenzie Blackwood emerging as the starter? Taken 42nd overall - is the 2nd round our goalie sweet spot?

Is Blackwood doing well? I thought their goalies were struggling. If he’s showing some promise, then they may be alright. I’m totally fine with taking a goalie in the 2nd round, I do think that has provided a good return in recent years.

 

[Winger98]

Even with MacKenzie Blackwood emerging as the starter? Taken 42nd overall - is the 2nd round our goalie sweet spot?

2nd and 3rd rounds. Which also seem to be what a lot of backup goalies looking to start have been dealt for, no? I still really like the idea of letting other teams go through the hassle of developing quality goalie prospects and then picking them off when they don't have the roster space to actually play them.

 

[Bench]

Is Blackwood doing well? I thought their goalies were struggling. If he’s showing some promise, then they may be alright. I’m totally fine with taking a goalie in the 2nd round, I do think that has provided a good return in recent years.

Keep in mind the Devil's defense is pretty awful, so hard for anyone to look good there. But Blackwood has won 4 of the last 5 and improved to a .909% which is a feat on that team.

 

[Bench]

2nd and 3rd rounds. Which also seem to be what a lot of backup goalies looking to start have been dealt for, no? I still really like the idea of letting other teams go through the hassle of developing quality goalie prospects and then picking them off when they don't have the roster space to actually play them.

I like this except it seems harder to do than we believe. So far the Wings have failed to acquire any goalie with promise this way, but perhaps that will change with Yzerman. I'm critical of Holland's tenure and the stagnant goaltending is part of that.

 

[Winger98]

I like this except it seems harder to do than we believe. So far the Wings have failed to acquire any goalie with promise this way, but perhaps that will change with Yzerman. I'm critical of Holland's tenure and the stagnant goaltending is part of that.

To be fair, the Wings couldn't acquire a consistently good goalie when they were blowing $8m a year on one, either. Getting a goalie is to the Wings what getting quality relievers are to the Tigers.

 

[SirloinUB]

Jack Campbell is still an NHL goalie. I can list dozens of guys taken around his spot that aren't in the league. That's my point. These guys get a bad rap because the bad skater picks fade into the noise of the many others that didn't pan out. But we all remember that top goalie pick.

Jack Campbell has 52 career starts and a sub .900 sv % this year. If you want to hold him in higher regard than the other skaters who are out of the league, I won't stop you but we certainly aren't missing out on anything there.


Ranking Every Goalie Selected In The First Round Since 2000

Granted this list is a little dated but there are like 6 or 7 goalies over a 16 year period that I would actually be comfortable making a top 5 selection on. And of those 6 or 7 a few were on there 2nd or 3rd teams before they became an impact starter.

A top 5 pick is a massive investment into a position that fluctuates wildly.

 

[Mlotek]

Green is interesting as he could be quite useful on the right PP, but could he get a 1st rounder? With Yzerman doing the deal it's certainly possible, but it's equally possible that he gets injured again right before the TDL.

I don't think Green would have fetched a 1st at any time he was in Detroit. Yay for trade protection.



Especially now that his value is at rock bottom.

He's been pretty bad this year, and coaching has played a big part in it. I recall Mickey talking early on that coaches wanted Green to cut down the risks he takes in the offensive zone.

A 3rd rounder is the highest I could see Green going for, as that seems to be the going price for a bottom pairing D in today's NHL.

 

[roman star]

• Bernier - easily worth a 3rd to a contender with goalie issues
• Helm - four line grinder for many a contender , kenny could be calling with a 3rd
• Glendening - lots of interest , worth a 2nd
• Green - lots of interest starting with kenny

 

[MBH]

• Bernier - easily worth a 3rd to a contender with goalie issues
• Helm - four line grinder for many a contender , kenny could be calling with a 3rd
• Glendening - lots of interest , worth a 2nd
• Green - lots of interest starting with kenny

The Oilers have Adam Larsson, Caleb Jones and Ethan Bear as right-handed defensemen. I doubt they pine for Mike Green.
Cap hit wise, it would be really tough making Green fit.

Helm is a no-go. Oilers don't have much need for Helm - even at half-price. Especially next year.