I'm curious about what trade/move protection is in it, but I love this contract. Is the term longer than ideal? Absolutely. But that is the cost of doing business in today's NHL market. Here is the list of every UFA or pending UFA center signed between $5.5 and $7.5 mil over the last couple summers:
Pavelski: $7 mil x 3 years (he will be 37 through the entirety of the final season)
Anders Lee: $7 mil x 7 years (he will be 35 for the entirety of the final season)
Brock Nelson: $6 mil x 6 years (he will be 33 for all but 2 weeks of the final season)
Adam Henrique: $5.825 x 5 years (he turns 34 in February of the final season)
Paul Stastny: $6.5 mil x 3 years (he turns 35 in December of the final season)
Kevin Hayes: $7.14 mil x 7 years (he will be 33 through the entirety of the final season)
Brayden Schenn: $6.5 mil x 8 years (he will be 36 through the entirety of the final season)
I'd take Schenn and this contract over every player on that list with their contract.
He's a better player than most the guys on that list
Lee's career high point total was 62, which was largely done riding shotgun to Tavares and playing wing. Other than that season, his next two best seasons were 51 and 52 points. Nelson's career best is 53 points and he has been a 35-45 point player every other season. Henrique is squarely a 40-50 point guy and Hayes is squarely a 45-55 point guy. Schenn is a noticeably better player than those 4 guys IMO.
You can debate who is better between Stastny and Schenn, but Schenn has clearly been better as a Blue and Stastny is already in the age rage that people are concerned about. Pavelski is the best player in the group, but is also already in that worrisome age range.
I think there is absolutely every reason to believe that for the next 5 seasons, Schenn is overall the best player/contract combo of that group to have starting right now (or starting next season). $6.5 AAV is an absolute steal compared to UFA market price, which is why we had to give up a couple years that might hurt at the end. However, while the last 2-3 years may hurt, this isn't a big enough contract to be team killing. It is $375k lower of an AAV than Seabrook's and the cap will almost certainly be at least $6 mil higher than it is today by the time this contract becomes an issue. By percentage, Seabrook's contract was 9.63% of the cap the day it was signed. Schenn's is 7.98. Again, this isn't to say he will never be overpaid for the production he brings. But by the time we get to the point where it hurts, this will likely be the equivalent of dealing with a $5 mil headache today. Still a headache, but not a debilitating team killer.
And just for fun, here are some more expensive contracts at all forward positions: Couture $8 mil x 8 years until he is 38, Duchene $8 mil x 7 years until he is 35, Skinner $9 mil x 8 years until he is 34, Stone $9.5 mil x 8 years until he is 34, Wheeler $8.25 mil x 5 years until he is 37, E Kane $7 mil x 7 years until he is 33.
