Pre-Game Talk: San Jose @ Rongods

[Brooklyn Rangers Fan]

I suspect the biggest problem AV would have with that lineup (which I happen to like ) is that he's not willing to demote Stempniak to the 4th line to have Duclair in the lineup (who he only wants on in the top 9). Saw several quotes about Duclair sitting from AV today, he said that you couldn't expect a 19 year coming out of Juniors to play every game--plus there had been 5 games in 8 nights. Also talked quite a bit about having a right-handed center to take certain draws.

Let's see if Duclair only sits a game or two...however, it always seems like the veteran ultimatically wins in these cases.

That makes sense, Brooklyn, but by the same token dictates that he play one of MSL/Nash/MZA on the LW, where none of them are as effective. I just think any decision that is about making Stemp (or Glass, who's continued presence is the real baffler for me) comfortable at the expense of playing those three guys on their natural sides AND including Duke in the lineup is a bad move.

That said, one of the things we've seen from AV is that he gives things a chance for stretches at a time (rather than shifts at a time a la Torts) before making a decision, which in general I think is a good policy. - he just happens to be doing it with a lineup that doesn't make much sense to me this time. So, let's see how long he goes with his gut to keep Stemp/Glass where they are before he starts looking at the lineups that IMO make more sense. I just hope that they don't demote Duclair before that process is complete and then we don't have him available for the rest of the year...

 

[BarbaraAlphanse]

That makes sense, Brooklyn, but by the same token dictates that he play one of MSL/Nash/MZA on the LW, where none of them are as effective. I just think any decision that is about making Stemp (or Glass, who's continued presence is the real baffler for me) comfortable at the expense of playing those three guys on their natural sides AND including Duke in the lineup is a bad move.

That said, one of the things we've seen from AV is that he gives things a chance for stretches at a time (rather than shifts at a time a la Torts) before making a decision, which in general I think is a good policy. - he just happens to be doing it with a lineup that doesn't make much sense to me this time. So, let's see how long he goes with his gut to keep Stemp/Glass where they are before he starts looking at the lineups that IMO make more sense. I just hope that they don't demote Duclair before that process is complete and then we don't have him available for the rest of the year...

It is unfortunate, for Duclair that is, that AV wasn't able to balance his lines up again.

In a perfect world, Duclair could have been the LW to Brassard and Zucc on last year's 3rd line... and looked like a bonafide budding star.

 

[Hunter Gathers]

This gave me an idea for the new subway series double header - daytime at Barclays center and night game at MSG!

Daytime @ MSG East, you mean.

 

[Hunter Gathers]

When Nash has allowed 2.1 standard deviations more shots against than expected over the past three seasons (basically bottom 2.5% in the league) while Zuccarello has allowed 2.1 less than expectation (top 2.5% in the league) I think it is pretty clear cut.

Nash is a OK possession player because he generates a TON of shots, but he does so at the expense of shots against. Considering that forwards especially has virtually no control over their on-ice Sv%, I'd consider that a pretty poor defensive player, one of the worst in the league in fact. Luckily he makes up for it by being a great offensive player. Just like other similar players do (Ovechkin, Jeff Carter).

This is how I'd rank our current top-9 forwards overall 5v5 based on their play the past three seasons:

Hagelin
Zuccarello
Nash
St. Louis
Kreider
Stempniak
Brassard


D. Moore

No ranking: Hayes

Zuccarello/Nash/St. Louis/Kreider overtakes Hagelin overall based on their 5v4 ability, where Hags is just terrible.

Nash's defensive play in the playoffs last year basically disproves all of this, but whatever.

Actually, the fact that the stats show that Brassard is one of our top defensive forwards disproves all of this. But whatever.

 

[AHB*]

When Nash has allowed 2.1 standard deviations more shots against than expected over the past three seasons (basically bottom 2.5% in the league) while Zuccarello has allowed 2.1 less than expectation (top 2.5% in the league) I think it is pretty clear cut.

Nash is a OK possession player because he generates a TON of shots, but he does so at the expense of shots against. Considering that forwards especially has virtually no control over their on-ice Sv%, I'd consider that a pretty poor defensive player, one of the worst in the league in fact. Luckily he makes up for it by being a great offensive player. Just like other similar players do (Ovechkin, Jeff Carter).

This is how I'd rank our current top-9 forwards overall 5v5 based on their play the past three seasons:

Hagelin
Zuccarello
Nash
St. Louis
Kreider
Stempniak
Brassard


D. Moore

No ranking: Hayes

Zuccarello/Nash/St. Louis/Kreider overtakes Hagelin overall based on their 5v4 ability, where Hags is just terrible.

This is pretty much where advanced stats go wrong.

 

[Blue Blooded]

Nash's defensive play in the playoffs last year basically disproves all of this, but whatever.

Actually, the fact that the stats show that Brassard is one of our top defensive forwards disproves all of this. But whatever.

Nash's defensive play over a stretch of 25 games (where he did play very well defensively) disproves a clear trend over 191 games?

Nash has BTW been by far the worst defensive forward on the team so far in 14-15. I personally don't put any stock into a 5-game sample, but I'm just throwing it out there if we are going to talk about small, but recent, samples.

 

[YoSoyLalo]

Nash's defensive play over a stretch of 25 games (where he did play very well defensively) disproves a clear trend over 191 games?

Nash has BTW been by far the worst defensive forward on the team so far in 14-15. I personally don't put any stock into a 5-game sample, but I'm just throwing it out there if we are going to talk about small, but recent, samples.

Well, he was playing with a 5'6 39 year old career winger as his centerman.

 

[haveandare]

Nash's defensive play over a stretch of 25 games (where he did play very well defensively) disproves a clear trend over 191 games?

Nash has BTW been by far the worst defensive forward on the team so far in 14-15. I personally don't put any stock into a 5-game sample, but I'm just throwing it out there if we are going to talk about small, but recent, samples.

He hds multiple takeaways that he turned into shots for last game. How on earth is he clearly the worst defense forward?

 

[Blue Blooded]

He hds multiple takeaways that he turned into shots for last game. How on earth is he clearly the worst defense forward?

A few takeaways doesn't ins't enough to counteract the sheer volume of shot attempts we've allowed with Nash on the ice.

And while MSL at C doesn't help, Marty's on-ice stats are FAR better than Nash's despite the two sharing the ice for the majority of the games so far.

But I re-iterate, small samples. The reason I say Nash is bad defensively is the fact that he has been for the past three seasons - which is a pretty significant sample. But he more than makes up for it with his offense.

 

[Levitate]

Nash isn't terribly good in the defensive zone in a lot of ways, he's often not great at transitioning the puck off the boards, which is probably where he starts getting killed in advanced stats. Also wouldn't surprise me if he gets burned by ending up deep in the offensive zone and has no effect on stopping the other teams transition game because of it.

However he can be quite effective in the neutral zone at times when he's there, and is pretty decent at staying in position and covering players when he gets set up defensively.

Advanced stats by themselves tend to gloss over a massive amount of details in how a player actually plays and what leads to their stats being what they are, so saying "someone is bad defensively" doesn't necessarily mean much until you get into WHY they allow a lot of shots on goal when they're on the ice, and that's where the real information is

 

[Blue Blooded]

Nash isn't terribly good in the defensive zone in a lot of ways, he's often not great at transitioning the puck off the boards, which is probably where he starts getting killed in advanced stats. Also wouldn't surprise me if he gets burned by ending up deep in the offensive zone and has no effect on stopping the other teams transition game because of it.

However he can be quite effective in the neutral zone at times when he's there, and is pretty decent at staying in position and covering players when he gets set up defensively.

Advanced stats by themselves tend to gloss over a massive amount of details in how a player actually plays and what leads to their stats being what they are, so saying "someone is bad defensively" doesn't necessarily mean much until you get into WHY they allow a lot of shots on goal when they're on the ice, and that's where the real information is

If the end result is that we concede a lot of shots, the reasons for it happening ins't really relevant is it? A forward can't affect his goalies Sv%, so more shots against => more goals against.

Nash is a great hockey player, but he needs players on his line that can cover for him. Hagelin, Stepan, and Kreider are all good at that. MSL, not so much.

 

[Ex Officer Friendly]

Let's move to the GDT

 

[AHB*]

A few takeaways doesn't ins't enough to counteract the sheer volume of shot attempts we've allowed with Nash on the ice.

And while MSL at C doesn't help, Marty's on-ice stats are FAR better than Nash's despite the two sharing the ice for the majority of the games so far.

But I re-iterate, small samples. The reason I say Nash is bad defensively is the fact that he has been for the past three seasons - which is a pretty significant sample. But he more than makes up for it with his offense.

He is leading the league in takeaways if I'm not mistaken, or at least he was after our last game.