Where's the real risk. You say this type of stuff often, but we're not hurting for prospects or young nhl players, so where does it come from?
Rasmus has three RHD, all relatively young, and signed for the next 3 years ahead of him. He's a great prospect, but not really needed in our system. He sure looks like he's better than just an injury fill in.
Bennett, while promising, has yet to really show much sustained success in the league. Another season on this trajectory will tank his value. At this point, we're hoping he comes close to duchene (while not as tough, or a hitter he has a good defensive game).
I agree that it might be tough to keep duchene long term, but if we were thinking Bennett would need a raise in a few years, we could get rid of a contract (frolik, stajan?) or sign someone else to a bridge to make it work. You make our cap situation sound way less fluid than it is.
1. Injury fill in on D. We have pieces on the farm to fill in almost all positions except for C. Now, Bennett for Duchene doesn't affect this because all our Centre depth are wingers on our roster. Our roster was weirdly healthy last season. It doesn't always work that way.
Andersson is our only RD even close. LD we have a few options, but those options are also inferior and expecting that Kulak and TSpoon don't stumble. I'd rather have Valimaki as an option (Someone blue chip who looks pretty certain to be an NHL regular within a few years) until we know what we have in TSpoon/Kulak who might be 6/7 or non-NHL calibre. Theoretically like we believed Bennett "should" be good enough this season at 3C (he wasn't, but at least developed), we cannot assume TSpoon and Kulak are good enough long term for the bottom pairing just as we cannot assume the farm will be adequate enough to fill gaps as veterans move on.
2. Cost certainty
The following need extensions and are likely raises:
Now: Bennett
17-18: Backlund, Goalie 2
18-19: Duchene*, Lazar, Tkachuk, Ferland, Goalie 1
----------------------------
19-20: Stone, Brodie, Frolik, Brouwer /// Potential Lockout?
Locking in Bennett gives Treliving a good idea what happens in +1 and +2 years for cost certainty. However, moving Bennett for Duchene makes it harder to predict that later on and could add to a mess in 18-19. Lockout predicted for 2020 adds an additional facet of difficulty to navigate.
Sure, we could trade a guy to fit Duchene, but that's still assets out. But trading at that period might not work due to a looming lockout. The salary we will drop is also too low.
3. Talent injection
We have decent bottom 6 and bottom pairing coming on the farm, but we don't really have an expectation to add much in the next few drafts. This means we would be at the mercy of kid development and/or UFA. UFA has not been Treliving's strong suit, and many posters lament the graduation rate of our prospects.
The problem is, if any stumble, we don't have assets to re-roll. Valimaki and Bennett would be great at that time.
To be honest, I really want to consummate that Duchene deal, but it's a "devil you know" situation for me that makes me scared to leap without looking. If you poke at my posting history, I've been poking at the Duchene idea since early summer. But with Hamonic coming in and we being down so many first and second rounders, doing that Duchene trade is extremely risky.
I would not cry foul if Treliving traded for Duchene. But let's not pretend moving Bennett+ for Duchene isn't devoid of risk. Big picture wise, there are other complications that need to be looked at.
Our roster would be so dynamic and nasty to play against for 2 seasons if we acquired Duchene though. I salivate at that thought. I'd also believe Backlund to be on the way out if we acquired Duchene. There's really no point to try and keep him if our centre depth at approx 5 mil AAV when it projects as this in 2/3 seasons:
Monahan
Duchene*
Backlund* (One or the other? Or we do move one to wing?)
Jankowski
Lazar
F Hamilton
Sure, maybe it's not as "dire" as I implied, but again, still not without risk. We'd probably have to move players to make it work, but yeah... doable.