Salary Cap: Salary Cap Thread - Waiting for Goaldot

[The Old Master]

What are you talking about??? If Hextall wasn't always so sleepy he could trade Pettersson and ZAR for Eichel. Boom 2nd line center right there

well if we are living in that reality why not do zar for mcdavid? at 90% retained,

 

[Headshot77]

I found a free preview passage.

"Early on in their tenure, Sullivan and his staff settled on the idea of trying Kessel on a line with Nick Bonino. They thought it would give the Penguins balance in an attempt to get Kessel on the ice against the opposing team's third defensive pair. At the time, Kessel was playing with Malkin but the line wasn't generating as much offense as Sullivan thought it could.
"Phil at that time didn't have a lot of interest" Sullivan says "He understood our logic. I'm not sure he agreed with it. To his credit he said "whatever you want" But I do think that for players to be at their best they have to believe. At the time he was a good solider. He did it but I don't think he really believed"

This tracks. If Kessel loved his role on the team he would have stuck around.

 

[Night Shift]

well if we are living in that reality why not do zar for mcdavid? at 90% retained,

Because He was busy sleeping and dumpster diving.

 

[TimmyD]

Once the Pens qualified ZAR, they were locked into keeping him, since he was eligible for arbitration, and he filed for it. They had to qualify him before free agency started, so not doing so meant risking losing him as a UFA and then ending up paying more for a replacement. Johansson didn't sign until over a week after free agency began. He was almost certainly asking for more than 1.5M originally.
Hindsight is 20/20, but it's not the reality of how the Hockey Ops staff would have perceived things at the time.

Also, Johansson wasn't better than ZAR last season.



20/21 season comparison:
Johansson: GP: 36
1:49 PP TOI/G
65:06 PP TOI total
15:56 TOI/G
G: 6 A: 8 P: 14
PPG: 2 PPA: 4 PPP: 6
SHG: 0 SHA: 0 SHP: 0
EVG: 4 EVA: 4 EVP: 8

Aston-Reese: GP: 45
0:03 PP TOI/G
2:08 PP TOI total
14:37 TOI/G
G: 9 A: 6 P: 15
PPG: 0 PPA: 0 PPP: 0
SHG: 1 SHA: 0 SHP: 1
EVG: 8 EVA: 6 EVP: 14

Johansson got regular power play time, albeit on the second unit. Most of his production came on the power play.
Aston-Reese barely got more power play time over the entire season than Johansson would get in a single game.
At even strength, ZAR outpaced Johansson. Even accounting for playing more games, Johansson scored at 0.22 even-strength pts/g, while ZAR scored at 0.31 even strength pts/g. ZAR beat out Johansson's total goal production solely at even strength.

Also, while Aston-Reese's career high was 17 points in 43 games in the 18/19 season, he wasn't that far behind that this year with 15 points in 45 games, so it's not like he's showing signs of dropping off a cliff. He paces at over 10 goals per season over an 82 game season, which is reasonable third-line production (his career average puts him at over 13 goals/82 games, in fact). And the Pens have him split time mostly between the third and fourth lines.

Honestly, I wouldn't be heartbroken in the least if the Pens moved on from Aston-Reese, but I really don't understand the hatred he gets on these boards. What do people really expect from bottom six forwards?

There should have been absolutely zero worry about ZAR going to free agency. That is my point.

 

[TimmyD]

well if we are living in that reality why not do zar for mcdavid? at 90% retained,

They don't call him sleepy for no reason

 

[Peat]

Johansson had 21 ES points in '18-'19 and 24 in '19-'20.

ZAR's career high is 16...3 years ago.

Johansson also produced well in the playoffs from the 3rd line the last time he was on a legitimate playoff team, something we can't say ZAR's ever done.

Imo, 5v5 is a better measuring stick than ES as the extra conditions on ES tend to be fairly luck/usage based, while 5v5 holds steady year after year. That said, ZAR still had a better ES p/60 than MoJo in 18-19. And p/60 a better measuring stick for guys in a fairly similar role with a decent sample, as it's usually a safe bet their production would scale up if not injured/getting less minutes. ZAR's lack of production isn't about talent, it's about ability to stay fit.

Which means if a player is only outproducing ZAR because they stay fit a little more - and Mojo's only played 9 more games over the last three seasons, he's not a sturdy boy himself - it's not exactly a compliment. "Pretty much equal at point production to ZAR in every way save staying a little fitter" is not really a label that agrees with "actually produces". He's had spells of doing it - that season with Buffalo, that post-season with Boston - but the spells of not doing it are a lot bigger.

Significantly preferring MoJo to ZAR isn't "lusting" after him. It's an awful low bar.

I prefer Heinen to ZAR too - despite his actual production being further in the rear view than Johansson's - but I was hardly "lusting" after him either.

Fair, I put that in a over the top manner.

That said, I don't see wanting MoJo even in the most half-hearted way unless there's a time machine involved. I guess there's some rebound potential on a good team but his team have bled when he's been on ice the past three years, by and large, and at 1.5m he can't just be vanished if that continued to be the case. Which is probably why no good teams are giving him a rebound go...

 

[KrisLetAngry]

The idea of people whispering in private "this contract makes JJ's look merely bad" is enough to give Lovecraft his worst nightmares.



Matheson's ridiculously fun to watch play and pretty useful to have around and if he wasn't on that contract I'd shout at anyone who suggested moving him. It's not even he isn't worth it (I mean, he probably isn't, but not badly) just what happens if he regresses.



He's pretty much maxed out how much he can score at 5v5/ES. He's got the 27th best 5v5 p/60 over the last two seasons for dmen at 1.07, and the difference between that and 10th (Letang at 1.21) is an extra 4 points over 103 games. About the only way he's going up there is with more minutes (a lot more minutes), at which point he's on the verge of becoming a 1D which would be pretty sweet but maybe not expected at 4.9m.

So basically the only way we're getting a lot more points/production out of him is either turning PP2 into a murder machine, or sticking him on PP1. And I'm not sure we've got the horses for the former and I'm not convinced the latter is a good idea. Although I know others have made the case that if we're looking for a booming left hand shot for a little...

Yep. One of the few reasons I was okay with us getting him after I was really upset.

Looked at defenseman points in Florida and where they got them all. Was very interesting and really told the story that Matheson isn't bad.

Guy gets as many Even strength points as we could expect per his minutes.

 

[Peat]

Yep. One of the few reasons I was okay with us getting him after I was really upset.

Looked at defenseman points in Florida and where they got them all. Was very interesting and really told the story that Matheson isn't bad.

Guy gets as many Even strength points as we could expect per his minutes.

Ayup. I'm a little scared of some regression, but as long as he keeps doing that, he's pretty close to worth his cap hit.

If he could clean up some of his mistakes enough to be a PKer/take a few more minutes, I think he'd be completely worth it tbh.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Ayup. I'm a little scared of some regression, but as long as he keeps doing that, he's pretty close to worth his cap hit.

If he could clean up some of his mistakes enough to be a PKer/take a few more minutes, I think he'd be completely worth it tbh.

I could care less if Matheson ascends to the PK. I'm more interested in how he'd do with an extended look on PP1 this year. Without Geno he should obviously be there. Maybe even with Geno.

I'd probably go this on PP1 to start:
Kapanen Zucker(trade value boost time!) Crosby
Letang Matheson

PP2:
Rust Zohorna Guentzel
Marino Dumo (considering Blueger here as well...)

Though I think Carter is certainly good enough to make one of these units, he'll be carrying a heavy load at ES/the PK and I'd rather him rest up on the PP.



Edit: I want to clarify the reason behind not caring if Matheson PKs. We should have 2 2-man D units PKing. I can't imagine a universe in which Matheson is one of our 4 most suitable defensemen to PK. Even if he improves defensively I'd still rather have a Petts or a Ruhwedel out there. If POJ gets manhandled I think I'd still take Marino-Ruh as a 2nd PK pairing over sticking Math out there. He isn't going to derive his value on the PK.

 

[Ugene Magic]

I could care less if Matheson ascends to the PK. I'm more interested in how he'd do with an extended look on PP1 this year. Without Geno he should obviously be there. Maybe even with Geno.

I'd probably go this on PP1 to start:
Kapanen Zucker(trade value boost time!) Crosby
Letang Matheson

PP2:
Rust Zohorna Guentzel
Marino Dumo (considering Blueger here as well...)

Though I think Carter is certainly good enough to make one of these units, he'll be carrying a heavy load at ES/the PK and I'd rather him rest up on the PP.

Blueger is the 5 on 5 defensive specialist so Carter over Blueger anything PP related. Carter should have been on the top PP last year.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Blueger is the 5 on 5 defensive specialist so Carter over Blueger anything PP related. Carter should have been on the top PP last year.

Would you stick Carter netfront where I have Zucky for his sick tips (which as much as I rag on him he does he sick hands), or on the right boards where I have Kapanen?

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

The thing about Matheson v. Petts is that we have relatively capable replacements in-house for what we really need from a bottom pairing blueliner, and they're like 25% of the price. Remove Matheson and you rid yourself of his dogshit contract, but the transition game on our blueline is miserable beyond Letang. I don't like Matheson the player, and I hate his contract, but I'd keep him over Petts 11 times out of 10.

 

[Gurglesons]

I could care less if Matheson ascends to the PK. I'm more interested in how he'd do with an extended look on PP1 this year. Without Geno he should obviously be there. Maybe even with Geno.

I'd probably go this on PP1 to start:
Kapanen Zucker(trade value boost time!) Crosby
Letang Matheson

PP2:
Rust Zohorna Guentzel
Marino Dumo (considering Blueger here as well...)

Though I think Carter is certainly good enough to make one of these units, he'll be carrying a heavy load at ES/the PK and I'd rather him rest up on the PP.



Edit: I want to clarify the reason behind not caring if Matheson PKs. We should have 2 2-man D units PKing. I can't imagine a universe in which Matheson is one of our 4 most suitable defensemen to PK. Even if he improves defensively I'd still rather have a Petts or a Ruhwedel out there. If POJ gets manhandled I think I'd still take Marino-Ruh as a 2nd PK pairing over sticking Math out there. He isn't going to derive his value on the PK.

I'm not really sure Matheson has the IQ to handle being on the top power play.

 

[Gurglesons]

Would you stick Carter netfront where I have Zucky for his sick tips (which as much as I rag on him he does he sick hands), or on the right boards where I have Kapanen?

I remove Kapanen. Put Carter on the top with Letang and do Guentzel on the LW and Crosby on the RW.

 

[Peat]

I could care less if Matheson ascends to the PK. I'm more interested in how he'd do with an extended look on PP1 this year. Without Geno he should obviously be there. Maybe even with Geno.

I'd probably go this on PP1 to start:
Kapanen Zucker(trade value boost time!) Crosby
Letang Matheson

PP2:
Rust Zohorna Guentzel
Marino Dumo (considering Blueger here as well...)

Though I think Carter is certainly good enough to make one of these units, he'll be carrying a heavy load at ES/the PK and I'd rather him rest up on the PP.



Edit: I want to clarify the reason behind not caring if Matheson PKs. We should have 2 2-man D units PKing. I can't imagine a universe in which Matheson is one of our 4 most suitable defensemen to PK. Even if he improves defensively I'd still rather have a Petts or a Ruhwedel out there. If POJ gets manhandled I think I'd still take Marino-Ruh as a 2nd PK pairing over sticking Math out there. He isn't going to derive his value on the PK.

I am kinda intrigued by the thought of Matheson on PP1 but, right or wrong, when we've got so many LH forwards, I just can't see it happening (even if I think Matheson is basically a forward).

I also agree that Carter should be on the PP, remove him from the PK if necessary.

Re Matheson PKing -

1) He was actually decent at it for three seasons for Florida.
2) I'd love to get his physical attributes out there - he takes up a lot of space, not so easily pushed around, his raw speed could be useful at times
3) In some ways I feel like PK defending for dmen is easier than 5v5 - although I might be completely wrong. But it feels like there's less reads, and it's more about 1) sticking to your position 2) recognising when there's a chance to contest the puck 3) make all your clears. Which maybe helps for a guy who sometimes confuses reads/takes too many risks.
4) And most crucially - getting value out of Matheson is about ice time. He's about the 60th best paid dman and 125th most used dman. I mean, I'd rather win than get value, but both would be nice and getting that value involves more ice time. PP time probably helps most but I don't see that happening. So either he needs to be more leaned on at 5v5, or he needs to PK, and in either case, he'd maybe have to improve his defence a bit (but arguably less for the PK) for it to happen.

I'm not really sure Matheson has the IQ to handle being on the top power play.

Counterpoint - McCann managed it.

 

[Ugene Magic]

Would you stick Carter netfront where I have Zucky for his sick tips (which as much as I rag on him he does he sick hands), or on the right boards where I have Kapanen?

I was calling for it last year, but they refused to put him on PP1 when he can drive offense, RHS, size and all you could ask for.

 

[Gurglesons]

Counterpoint - McCann managed it.

McCann has defensive awareness, it is the whole offensive part that he is bad at.

I'd argue Matheson probably would be fine in the zone for the Penguins on the power play.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

I'm probably jinxing the guy just saying this but I have the feeling nobody is going to be whining too much about MM and his contract after next season.

He had the look of a guy just getting comfortable while battling some injuries last year and still acquitted himself pretty well. I can't help but think there will be another step taken next season health provided.

 

[Peat]

I'm probably jinxing the guy just saying this but I have the feeling nobody is going to be whining too much about MM and his contract after next season.

He had the look of a guy just getting comfortable while battling some injuries last year and still acquitted himself pretty well. I can't help but think there will be another step taken next season health provided.

Quoting and bookmarking for evidence.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

Quoting and bookmarking for evidence.

Ha... you know me. Right or wrong I'll own it.

I don't think he's gonna blow anyone's doors off... but I couldn't help but notice a change for the worse in this team's transition game and ability to manufacture offense with him out last year. It wasn't a massive difference but it was evident. If he can continue to lean into his "Daley-esque" role here I think that's a big win for the Penguins.

 

[Ugene Magic]

Matheson is fast, but sometimes being faster between the ears at making decisions is more necessary. Getting more comfortable with knowing the team should be a positive. A lot of the defensive issues last year is in their delay on the puck moving.

I'd be hard pressed to move out Matheson. Plus having an offensive minded D-man on a team more use to having them on the right is a curveball to work through.

 

[HandshakeLine]

I'm not really sure Matheson has the IQ to handle being on the top power play.

And Rust does?

 

[Gurglesons]

And Rust does?

I think the big difference between Rust and McCann and Matheson is I assumed the argument was him taking the top of the umbrella.

 

[Headshot77]

I'm not really sure Matheson has the IQ to handle being on the top power play.

Running a power play isn't that hard of a mental task.

 

[PensandCaps]

Big righty shot in Carter should absolutely be on the 1PP over Rust, probably even be the net front option