Salary Cap: Salary Cap Summer | Coming to a close

[Pharrell Williams]

Is there any chance Troy Josephs ever becomes anything? I think he's on an AHL contract now but I remember that I used to like him.

 

[cheesedanish87]

I dunno, for as much as I was never sold on Vesey being half as good as the runaway hype train painted him to be, I still think he has what it'd take to be a solid third liner if he learns to adapt better (impressed early on last year and faded absurdly quickly). I just don't see Butcher as having anything more than #6 potential in the NHL with his mobility and defensive concerns.

I want Butcher because he's a free prospect, but let's not pretend that winning the Hobey Baker is even slightly predictive of professional success. Vesey is what happens when people conflate an award given to players being good at a specific level to being predictive of potential. The kid's game has very real flaws that limit his NHL potential, to say nothing of the generally accepted reasoning for him not signing with Colorado being that the Avs didn't show any interest in signing their own draft pick until he had a monster senior season down the road. I'd put Butcher below the other 'free' prospects we've signed the past two off-seasons in terms of potential.

I've been around HFBoards for too many Peter Sejnas and Matt Gilroys to ever hype someone based off of that award again, long before even Vesey showed up

On the bright side if there was a place for Butcher to get the help necessary to improve, it'd be with us (read: Gonchar).

I wasn't basing my opinion of him because he won the Hobey Baker, it was the couple games i saw him play and what people have wrote about him that have followed him a lot more then i have.

I wasn't impressed with Vesey at all last year, IIRR he had a really good first few weeks of the season then did nothing at all after that. I know Vesey is still pretty young, but i just didn't see anything in his game last year that makes me think hes gonna become much of anything.

 

[steelcityassault]

Is there any chance Troy Josephs ever becomes anything? I think he's on an AHL contract now but I remember that I used to like him.

4th line NHL potential..seems to fit the new age grinder mold

 

[Shady Machine]

How the hell are you equating Wilson being above Hagelin on the depth chart to waking up with a million dollars in your pillow case? What the hell? Wilson was above Hagelin for essentially the entire playoffs last year. Yeah, part of it was due to injury, but why is it such a stretch to say that Wilson could be above Hagelin on the depth chart?

Your posts have been off in the last couple days, you've been seemingly getting pretty aggressive about the littlest things on here over the last few days.

Apologies if I'm coming off aggressive. That's not my intention. I was attempting to be blunt yesterday, but maybe I could have worded it differently so as to not come off like a dick. The point of my hyperbolic comparison (obvious it was exaggeration), is that saying there's a chance something happens doesn't make it likely. It's highly improbable that Wilson is above Hagelin on a healthy depth chart. So improbable, that IMO, it's not worth mentioning.

It's a stretch to say Wilson can be above Hagelin because there's nothing to suggest it will happen other than Hagelin playing with 1.5 feet.

 

[Gurglesons]

Apologies if I'm coming off aggressive. That's not my intention. I was attempting to be blunt yesterday, but maybe I could have worded it differently so as to not come off like a dick. The point of my hyperbolic comparison (obvious it was exaggeration), is that saying there's a chance something happens doesn't make it likely. It's highly improbable that Wilson is above Hagelin on a healthy depth chart. So improbable, that IMO, it's not worth mentioning.

It's a stretch to say Wilson can be above Hagelin because there's nothing to suggest it will happen other than Hagelin playing with 1.5 feet.

I'd argue defensive stats, salary, and just overall 200 ft play would have Hagelin above Wilson in terms of ice team even if we see Wilson more regularly paired with our 2nd and 3rd centers.

 

[Andy99]

There's also college free agent Alex Kerfoot who may not sign with the Devils who would be a free agent tomorrow. He's a center. Pens should look hard if they haven't already. Does anyone have any info about whether the team is interested in him?

 

[rintinw]

I thought Hagelin and Hornqvist with Malkin looked good together, but it wasn't explored for very long. I would just go check the stats myself, but all of the advanced hockey sites like that are down now

It was explored long enough for me

109 minutes together & 41.7 GF% (5-7 GF-GA). But 59.4 CF% so there's that.

It's quite interesting. In terms of goalscoring (GF%) only twice have Malkin and Hornqvist created dominant line: with Guentzel and Comeau on the other side. But there are many line combinations of them that are dominating CF but come as pretty mediocre on GF front.

 

[Ogrezilla]

5-7 gf-ga seems like a ridiculously small sample size. Two shifts go differently and they are just as far ahead of 50% as they are currently below.

I wonder if sheary or sprong could be the scoring touch that pair needs on the other side. Though if sheary leaves sids line it's probably because horny took his spot. So sprong then.

 

[AjaxTelamon]

It was explored long enough for me

109 minutes together & 41.7 GF% (5-7 GF-GA). But 59.4 CF% so there's that.

It's quite interesting. In terms of goalscoring (GF%) only twice have Malkin and Hornqvist created dominant line: with Guentzel and Comeau on the other side. But there are many line combinations of them that are dominating CF but come as pretty mediocre on GF front.

In terms of GF%, in such a small number of minutes a couple of goals one way or the other could shift that quite a bit, so I'd think sample size there. Whereas a lot of shots were generated, and PH/Hags have good possession stats together without Geno too, generally.

So it has not been explored long enough for me

In any case, Hags provides an excellent defensive compliment to offensive players, without necessarily dragging the line down as long as he's shooting at his career average. If I had to bet, and this wouldn't be big money, but I'd still expect the lines to start with:

Sheary Sid Guentzel
Hags Geno Kessel
Rust 3C PH
Wilson Rowney/Cullen Reaves

RIP hockeyanalysis.com

 

[Andy99]

It was explored long enough for me

109 minutes together & 41.7 GF% (5-7 GF-GA). But 59.4 CF% so there's that.

It's quite interesting. In terms of goalscoring (GF%) only twice have Malkin and Hornqvist created dominant line: with Guentzel and Comeau on the other side. But there are many line combinations of them that are dominating CF but come as pretty mediocre on GF front.

Yeah, they were possession monsters but neither Hags nor Hornqvist can put the puck in the net enough to take advantage of Malkin's skills. Sully can't play both with Malkin

 

[Empoleon8771]

Yeah, hockeyanalysis being dead is a blow to this site, it was such a well organized site. I wish the creator would have at least left the site up so people can use old stats.

I'd personally rather not see Hagelin and Hornqvist as a duo, because while they looked good with Malkin, it was a small sample size and there just isn't enough skill on that line. I think the ideal forward group for next year probably has wing duos of Guentzel-Rust, Sheary-Hornqvist and Hagelin-Kessel, with Guentzel-Rust being one of the top-6 duos, Sheary-Hornqvist being the 1st or 3rd line duos and Hagelin-Kessel being the 2nd or 3rd line duos. With just using William Karlsson as an example for a 3C, I think either of these lineups:

Sheary-Crosby-Hornqvist
Guentzel-Malkin-Rust
Hagelin-Karlsson-Kessel
Wilson-Cullen (please)-Reaves

Guentzel-Crosby-Rust
Hagelin-Malkin-Kessel
Sheary-Karlsson-Hornqvist
Wilson-Cullen (please)-Reaves

Are probably the ideal way to set up the top-6. I'm not sure you have enough skill players on LW to keep Sheary at RW for that long, plus I think he's better at LW personally. I also think it would make more sense to keep Sheary on LW and Sprong on RW instead of keeping "Sid and the Kids" together and pushing Sprong to his off-wing, but that's more of a problem for the long run.

 

[rintinw]

5-7 gf-ga seems like a ridiculously small sample size. Two shifts go differently and they are just as far ahead of 50% as they are currently below.

I wonder if sheary or sprong could be the scoring touch that pair needs on the other side. Though if sheary leaves sids line it's probably because horny took his spot. So sprong then.

That's why corsi is so widely used. It's something that has high correlation to GF stat (on average, across all teams) and it has roughly 30 times bigger sample sizes.

In terms of GF%, in such a small number of minutes a couple of goals one way or the other could shift that quite a bit, so I'd think sample size there. Whereas a lot of shots were generated, and PH/Hags have good possession stats together without Geno too, generally.

So it has not been explored long enough for me

Unfortunately 100+ minutes of 5v5 time is a large number of minutes for a line combination in a season (hint: injuries, line changes). It was 3rd most used Malkin line combination and 8th most used PIT line combination:
Sheary-Crosby-Rust (221)
Hagelin-Bonino-Kessel (209)
Kunitz-Malkin-Kessel (202)
Sheary-Crosby-Hornqvist (165)
Sheary-Crosby-Guentzel (163)
Hagelin-Malkin-Kessel (156)
Kuhnhackl-Cullen-Fehr (132)
Hagelin-Malkin-Hornqvist (109)
Wilson-Cullen-Fehr (106)

with no other line combination over 75 5v5 minutes

 

[Peat]

Can't even access it using Wayback Machine. Man this sucks.

 

[Andy99]

That's why corsi is so widely used. It's something that has high correlation to GF stat (on average, across all teams) and it has roughly 30 times bigger sample sizes.



Unfortunately 100+ minutes of 5v5 time is a large number of minutes for a line combination in a season (hint: injuries, line changes). It was 3rd most used Malkin line combination and 8th most used PIT line combination:
Sheary-Crosby-Rust (221)
Hagelin-Bonino-Kessel (209)
Kunitz-Malkin-Kessel (202)
Sheary-Crosby-Hornqvist (165)
Sheary-Crosby-Guentzel (163)
Hagelin-Malkin-Kessel (156)
Kuhnhackl-Cullen-Fehr (132)
Hagelin-Malkin-Hornqvist (109)
Wilson-Cullen-Fehr (106)

with no other line combination over 75 5v5 minutes

Just curious...was Hags Geno Kessel better, GF/GA, than Kunitz Geno Kessel? If you know...

 

[rintinw]

Just curious...was Hags Geno Kessel better, GF/GA, than Kunitz Geno Kessel? If you know...

At one point I was pretty interested about it so you are lucky.

Hagelin-Malkin-Kessel
- 156:34 TOI
- 47.9/38.4/13.7 (OZ/NZ/DZ)
- 12-2 GF-GA (85.7 GF%, 4.60 GF60)
- 53.2 CF%
- Hagelin 6 Pts (0+6), Malkin 9 Pts (4+5), Kessel 7 Pts (4+3)
- in terms of primary points: Hagelin 4, Malkin 8, Kessel 6

Kunitz-Malkin-Kessel
- 202:37 TOI
- 49.5/34.3/16.2 (OZ/NZ/DZ)
- 9-3 (75.0 GF%, 2.67 GF60)
- 48.0 CF%
- Kunitz 7 Pts (1+6), Malkin 8 Pts (7+1), Kessel 6 Pts (0+6)
- in terms of primary points: Kunitz 2, Malkin 8, Kessel 5

 

[billybudd]

Can't even access it using Wayback Machine. Man this sucks.

Every time I get used to a fancy stats site, the creator gets hired by an NHL team and takes it off-line. By the time I can find and remember the name of a new one, that one gets taken off, too

 

[AjaxTelamon]

Unfortunately 100+ minutes of 5v5 time is a large number of minutes for a line combination in a season (hint: injuries, line changes). It was 3rd most used Malkin line combination and 8th most used PIT line combination:
Sheary-Crosby-Rust (221)
Hagelin-Bonino-Kessel (209)
Kunitz-Malkin-Kessel (202)
Sheary-Crosby-Hornqvist (165)
Sheary-Crosby-Guentzel (163)
Hagelin-Malkin-Kessel (156)
Kuhnhackl-Cullen-Fehr (132)
Hagelin-Malkin-Hornqvist (109)
Wilson-Cullen-Fehr (106)

with no other line combination over 75 5v5 minutes

Well, speaking relative to other combos, sure, but the underlying point stands. I think the Corsi is more indicative of the performance of that line than the GF%.

 

[Malkinstheman]

A reliable Wings reporter said that the RedWings will wait until training camp before making any moved. They are also more likely to waive someone rather than trade a guy like sheahen.

 

[rintinw]

Well, speaking relative to other combos, sure, but the underlying point stands. I think the Corsi is more indicative of the performance of that line than the GF%.

Goals (GF% and goal difference) are the best indicator of line past performance in my opinion (because it's kind of irrelevant whether it was ability or luck, only results count). I think you wanted to say that Corsi is better predictor of line future performance or sustainability.

 

[Andy99]

At one point I was pretty interested about it so you are lucky.

Hagelin-Malkin-Kessel
- 156:34 TOI
- 47.9/38.4/13.7 (OZ/NZ/DZ)
- 12-2 GF-GA (85.7 GF%, 4.60 GF60)
- 53.2 CF%
- Hagelin 6 Pts (0+6), Malkin 9 Pts (4+5), Kessel 7 Pts (4+3)
- in terms of primary points: Hagelin 4, Malkin 8, Kessel 6

Kunitz-Malkin-Kessel
- 202:37 TOI
- 49.5/34.3/16.2 (OZ/NZ/DZ)
- 9-3 (75.0 GF%, 2.67 GF60)
- 48.0 CF%
- Kunitz 7 Pts (1+6), Malkin 8 Pts (7+1), Kessel 6 Pts (0+6)
- in terms of primary points: Kunitz 2, Malkin 8, Kessel 5

Thanks. Hags Geno Kessel is not a bad line. Would still rather see Rust there and Kessel down on the third line if Sprong plays well. I have no ideal what Sully sees or what stats he's looking at, if any, when he puts Rust with Sid

 

[Andy99]

A reliable Wings reporter said that the RedWings will wait until training camp before making any moved. They are also more likely to waive someone rather than trade a guy like sheahen.

Yeah, I'll be surprised if the Pens are able to trade for a 3C before training camp. Don't see the available partners. The only player who may move befor camp is Duchene and I doubt it'll be here. I think has to wait into the season for a 3C. I'll be interested to see who the in house candidates are who are competing for that role at camp

 

[Asuna]

weird

 

[Malkinstheman]

I dont think that guy is really reliable but man, if the bruins trade away ANOTHER star..

 

[Asuna]

I dont think that guy is really reliable but man, if the bruins trade away ANOTHER star..

maybe not, but he is a former agent, so i'm sure he hears things around the league.

but it would be absolutely hilarious if they traded pastrnak. after trading hamilton. and seguin. and kessel.

 

[Malkinstheman]

maybe not, but he is a former agent, so i'm sure he hears things around the league.

but it would be absolutely hilarious if they traded pastrnak. after trading hamilton. and seguin. and kessel.

2006: Thornton
2009: Kessel
2011: Wheeler
2013: Seguin
2015: Hamilton

Seems like the Bruins have a quota to meet soon. There seems to be some requirement to get rid of great players every 2-3 years..