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[Honour Over Glory]

Difference is Kucherov was younger and was actually just as impactful as Jake in the playoffs. His team just happened to lose.

Kucherov's first playoff run he put up

10 Goals, 22 Points in 26 games.

How was Jake more Impactful in his first playoff run? They're identical. While Kucherov was a year younger than what Jake was in his first playoff run.

If Guentzel ever becomes the best winger in the sport like Kucherov has been for the past two seasons I'll be very shocked...I don't see him having the high end skill of a Kucherov, a Guy who can carry a whole team.

Put both side by side and how much they produce even strength.

Here, I'll help out.

1st year.
Guentzel - 30 even strength points - 4o games (33pts total)
Kucherov - 15 even strength points - 52 games (18pts total)

2nd year.
Guentzel - 36 even strength points - 82 games (48pts total)
Kucherov - 40 even strength points - 82 games (65pts total)

Playoffs total:
Kucherov - 59pts total in 62 games, no clue how many are powerplay pts, just know 8 are pp goals.
Guentzel - 42pts in 37 games, no clue how many are powerplay pts, just know 3 are pp goals.

One is a mid 2nd round pick, the other is a mid 3rd round pick (58th overall in a much deeper draft vs 77th overall in a weaker draft).

 

[PensandCaps]

For what? Being stacked with top 6 "wingers" that did the job of a C so he can play as a glorified winger that masquerades as a C? His production dipped when he lost RNH or Draisaitl from his line that did all of the 2-way stuff. McDavid now talks about wanting to be better in that regard but we'll see. I have a hard time liking him because of the **** team he's on. That city doesn't even deserve a team let alone a player as good as McDavid.

Hall was more deserving.

That's just nonsense.

McDavids season was by far better than anyone else's, it's all time great.

Again...88 Non PP points. Insanity.

Also let's not act like RNH is some great player....Drai, Yes. But Mcdavid has more than proved he can make average players good, Like Maroon. This notion that McDavid needs Drai is just complete nonsense.

 

[PensandCaps]

Put both side by side and how much they produce even strength.

Well, Kucherov is the best guy on his team. Of course hes gonna be handling the PP.

I can do the same thing with Crosby.


One could aurgue, aside from McDavid, Kucherov is the best player in the game.

Leader in points per game since 2016 aside from McDavid, is Kucherov.

 

[Ryder71]

Why are we comparing Kucherov and Guentzel?

I'm not being an ass, I'm just curious. I see that their stats line up for the first few seasons I guess, but other than that......... I'm a big fan of Jake, but damn.

I brought it up in the context of Jake doing a ''bridge deal''. I compared what he might get relative to what Kucherov got. And based on Kuch's deal I would suspect that Guentzels contract (within that context) would be less. Which is why I believe it'd be better both from Jakes perspective as well as the Pens, to sign a long term deal.

 

[Honour Over Glory]

That's just nonsense.

McDavids season was by far better than anyone else's, it's all time great.

Again...88 Non PP points. Insanity.

Also let's not act like RNH is some great player....Drai, Yes. But Mcdavid has more than proved he can make average players good, Like Maroon. This notion that McDavid needs Drai is just complete nonsense.

Here's the Oilers forum. https://hfboards.mandatory.com/forums/edmonton-oilers.38/

See ya!

 

[PensandCaps]

Put both side by side and how much they produce even strength.

Here, I'll help out.

1st year.
Guentzel - 30 even strength points - 4o games (33pts total)
Kucherov - 15 even strength points - 52 games (18pts total)

2nd year.
Guentzel - 36 even strength points - 82 games (48pts total)
Kucherov - 40 even strength pints - 82 games (65pts total)

Playoffs total:
Kucherov - 59pts total in 62 games, no clue how many are powerplay pts, just know 8 are pp goals.
Guentzel - 42pts in 37 games, no clue how many are powerplay pts, just know 3 are pp goals.

Using 1st year instead of going by aged season is misleading.

Using Kucherov's 57 game 20 year old season is very misleading. Guentzel wasn't even close to the NHL at age 20.

 

[Honour Over Glory]

I brought it up in the context of Jake doing a ''bridge deal''. I compared what he might get relative to what Kucherov got. And based on Kuch's deal I would suspect that Guentzels contract (within that context) would be less. Which is why I believe it'd be better both from Jakes perspective as well as the Pens, to sign a long term deal.

5yrs minimum is what I would be looking at for term for Jake.

 

[Honour Over Glory]

Using 1st year instead of going by aged season is misleading.

Using Kucherov's 57 game 20 year old season is very misleading. Guentzel wasn't even close to the NHL at age 20.

Misleading you say?
Context?
Do you understand either, I say?

 

[Ogrezilla]

Put both side by side and how much they produce even strength.

Here, I'll help out.

1st year.
Guentzel - 30 even strength points - 4o games (33pts total)
Kucherov - 15 even strength points - 52 games (18pts total)

2nd year.
Guentzel - 36 even strength points - 82 games (48pts total)
Kucherov - 40 even strength points - 82 games (65pts total)

Playoffs total:
Kucherov - 59pts total in 62 games, no clue how many are powerplay pts, just know 8 are pp goals.
Guentzel - 42pts in 37 games, no clue how many are powerplay pts, just know 3 are pp goals.

One is a mid 2nd round pick, the other is a mid 3rd round pick (58th overall in a much deeper draft vs 77th overall in a weaker draft).

Would you have expected Kucherov to jump from those numbers to putting up 100 points with 64 at even strength? I wouldn't have. But he did. Similarly, I don't expect Guentzel to do it. He could, but I'd be very surprised.

 

[PensandCaps]

Is Guentzel on Crosbys or Malkins level?, I mean...when it matters he outscored them 5v5 in the playoffs.

The downplay of Kucherov is crazy. He's a Malkin/Crosby level player.

 

[PensandCaps]

Misleading you say?
Context?
Do you understand either, I say?

Yes...you're just going by 1st and 2nd years. Instead of using the sensible thing...aged season.

Using Kucherov's 20 year old season as his "first" year vs Guentzel's first year at age 22 is misleading.

 

[Ryder71]

Jake's first two years: 38 goals, 43 assists in 122 games
Kucherov's first two years: 38 goals, 45 assists in 134 games

Yeah, the guy who's two years older and has 3 more NHL seasons is better, what a zany concept. I took issue with your flippant dismissal of Jake compared to Kucherov, especially considering that Jake has been more impactful when it's mattered the most.

Kuch was a 20 yr old, Jake was a couple years older when he entered the league. With all due respect that's sort of an uneven argument as Jake had two more years to develop. And it wasn't a ''flippant dismissal'' of Jakes talents or abilities, but not many players reach the level of Nikita Kucherov.

That doesn't mean Jake isn't a very good player. But he's not Nikita Kucherov and very likely never will be. If somehow he turns out to be then good for the pens and I hope they lock him up now on a long term deal.

 

[Rakell67]

Yes...you're just going by 1st and 2nd years. Instead of using the sensible thing...aged season.

Using Kucherov's 20 year old season as his "first" year vs Guentzel's first year at age 22 is misleading.

It’s ashame that nobody realized the advantage a more mature Ovechkin (20 years old) had over Crosby (18 years old) in their first year in the league.

 

[Gurglesons]

I'm not so sure they do as a matter of course. Bonino's had more play off success than Hanzal but got less money. Dumo's contract was pretty fair for RFA and UFA years brought and Rust's is pretty fair too, despite an absurd number of playoff goals. Murray's bridge was similar to Vasilevsky's. And so on.

None of those players led the league in goals both years in the playoffs.

Also, according to most of this forum Bones was massively overpaid.

And I still don’t subscribe to the Dumo contract being anything, but league value. He is basically Hammer.

 

[Gurglesons]

I'm not saying he can't do it, I'm just saying it would be pretty insane.

I don’t think it’s that insane. Jake can score at will from anywhere on the ice, he can score on both sides of the ice and he’s playing with the best play maker in the league after McDavid all season this year.

Not like last year when we was randomly a center and carrying Sheahan offensively.

Obviously, I don’t expect it to happen, but Jake is likely seeing 1st PP time above anyone else on the team and has shown he can produce there.

 

[Tom Hanks]

Jake’s preseason must be going well.....

“God created the Heavens, he created the earth! He created all the Guentzelmaniacs! Then, he created a set of 24-inch pythons, brother!”

 

[Ogrezilla]

I don’t think it’s that insane. Jake can score at will from anywhere on the ice, he can score on both sides of the ice and he’s playing with the best play maker in the league after McDavid all season this year.

Not like last year when we was randomly a center and carrying Sheahan offensively.

I'll believe he sticks in any one place all season when I see it. But it certainly should be better than last year. I expect him to have a good season, but 70 points without top PP is very very difficult. Though the 2nd PP should be quite a bit better this year with Brassard and hopefully Sprong. If I had to guess, I'd say 55-60 points. He'll likely still have a couple of cold stretches and some time away from Sid.

Obviously, I don’t expect it to happen, but Jake is likely seeing 1st PP time above anyone else on the team and has shown he can produce there.

You mean as far as 1st PP replacements go? Yeah, sure. But he's still behind Sid, Geno, Phil, and Horny when we're healthy.

 

[Honour Over Glory]

Is Guentzel on Crosbys or Malkins level?, I mean...when it matters he outscored them 5v5 in the playoffs.

The downplay of Kucherov is crazy. He's a Malkin/Crosby level player.

He's not. Dude, you're just making all sorts of outlandish af claims now.

Also, I don't think Jake is as good as Kucherov, I think Jake's a different kind of player that's better at what he does, which is being incredible in the playoffs so far. Regular season, we haven't seen what Jake is capable of.

It's much easier to back a commodity that you know 100% about like Kucherov, what we've seen of him now is what he is capable of, I don't think there's an extra peak to Kucherov, he's at it now. He'll be this good for a while, but he's pretty f***ing good.

Jake? He's a slow burn in the regular season but a f***ing ROCKET in the playoffs. If all he does the rest of his career is be a 50pt player in the regular season and an absolute monster in the playoffs, f*** it, I give him 6m+/yr and never regret a dime.

 

[Honour Over Glory]

It’s ashame that nobody realized the advantage a more mature Ovechkin (20 years old) had over Crosby (18 years old) in their first year in the league.

What's misleading there is that age might have a play, but so does the leagues you play in. Jake played in College and then the AHL for half a season. Kucherov went from the Q to the AHL and then to the Bolts and has taken a few years to be what he is today.

The two aren't even that comparable to begin with, one was drafted higher with a better pedigree from the get go, Jake had 1 scout that was his cheerleader on our scouting staff and is the only reason he was even taken 3rd round. Otherwise he probably would have slipped to the 4th or 5th round because of his size and the lack of respect numbers in the leagues he was in at the time, were regarded as.

Jake's not going to be a 100pt winger or a 90 or 80pt winger. I think his max will be 70 to just under 80pts on his best years, average he will be more of a 45-60pt winger. It's how he elevates his play in the playoffs that separates him.

What good are you if you score 100pts in the regular season every year (not comparing Kuch, so relax people) and then produce mediocre numbers in the playoffs? I'd rather have the guy that produces good numbers at 50-60pts and is amazing in the playoffs.

 

[Honour Over Glory]

I'll believe he sticks in any one place all season when I see it. But it certainly should be better than last year. I expect him to have a good season, but 70 points without top PP is very very difficult. Though the 2nd PP should be quite a bit better this year with Brassard and hopefully Sprong. If I had to guess, I'd say 55-60 points. He'll likely still have a couple of cold stretches and some time away from Sid.


You mean as far as 1st PP replacements go? Yeah, sure. But he's still behind Sid, Geno, Phil, and Horny when we're healthy.

I'd also be curious about a 2nd powerplay that features the following:

Guentzel, Brassard, Sprong, Schultz, and Johnson.

That first unit is always going to be Kessel, Crosby, Malkin, Letang, and Hornqvist, there's no changing that. But that 2nd unit is so intriguing as well.

The quality of the 2nd unit determines how much ice time they get, because usually you see that 1st unit get 98% of the ice time, then that 2nd unit comes in when the 1st has failed. But when you have both that can convert, you tend to split it a little more 60-40.


Edit:

Jake averaged about 1:48 per game last season. Kuch, not sure why he's a comparison, averaged the most PP ice time on his team.

There's more to Jake's production if Sullivan keeps him where he belongs.

 

[billybudd]

Kucherov isn't on Malkin or Crosby's level. Come on, now.

 

[Honour Over Glory]

Kucherov isn't on Malkin or Crosby's level. Come on, now.

Yeah it was one of the more ridiculous things posted here. Kucherov just hit his peak, in his 5th year. Crosby and Malkin have done more in their rookie years and their first 3yrs than Kucherov likely ever will.

Kucherov will never be called a generational player by any stretch of the imagination. Unless he hits like 100pts annually in the next 6 seasons, not happening.

 

[Peat]

McDavid though is a 100 point player without #1 PP time.

88 non PP points last season.

He'd pick up 12 more points getting #2 PP mins.

His season was Pretty ****ing ridiculous. Such a scam that he didn't win the Hart.

Wouldn't pick up 12 on our #2 PP minutes... but, er, I had miscounted and thought he hit 80 rather than 88, so closer than I thought.

Not always.

The leverage isn't always as powerful as people hope for, but it is always there.

Would you have expected Kucherov to jump from those numbers to putting up 100 points with 64 at even strength? I wouldn't have. But he did. Similarly, I don't expect Guentzel to do it. He could, but I'd be very surprised.

Yes actually. A 94.5 point pace without Stamkos in 16-17 definitely pointed to the possibility of a 100 point season with him.

Similarly... Jake's entire NHL points tally averages out to a 63 point pace over 82 games with limited PP production and a 60 ES point pace in his first sample, so there's a definite possibility of Guentzel hitting a 60+ ES season if he and Crosby maintain form and fitness all season long. The question is one of consistency and opportunity, not ability.

 

[Ogrezilla]

Kucherov isn't on Malkin or Crosby's level. Come on, now.

Closer to Malkin than guentzel right now though.

 

[Randy Butternubs]

What's Hagelin's next contract looking like? Even if it's not with the Pens.