Salary Cap: Salary Cap + Roster Building | Soon (Cap Details + Links in First Post)

[Shady Machine]

70 points without being on the top pp would be pretty damn insane.

He put up back to back playoffs of 21 points (42 total) for a 1.14PPG. Only 5 of those points were on the PP. I don't expect that kind of production over 82 games, but 0.85PPG playing shotgun to Sid all year and a 2nd PP that has Brass, Sprong, Letang, etc is pretty deadly. I didn't say he would hit 70 points, but I think he is poised for a breakout regular season and I expect 60+ if he's healthy.

 

[Riptide]

Why would Jake sign that? If I were him, I'd bet on a monster regular season to get 7MM on a long term deal. If Jake puts up a 70 point season, he should get at least 6.5-7MM.

And what does he get if he puts up another 45pt season? Or if he gets crunched and has a bad injury? This comes up all the time... and repeatedly we see young players sign long term contracts that guarantee their financial future. Occasionally you'll see someone bet on themselves, but for the most part the player takes the guaranteed contract and will deal with the future when it comes around. I mean I'm pretty sure if I looked back at the discussions we had with Maatta, I would find you saying the exact same thing.

 

[Shady Machine]

Conversely if he slumps a bit he could lose some value, or if he sustains a serious injury prior to signing it could cost him big time. Right now he's pretty much guaranteed a sizable chunk of change. Currently he's getting well below a mil, so if something catastrophic did happen it's not as if he sitting on piles of money. I think six mil per is very fair. We also have to consider the deal from the teams perspective as well and the cap implications. Which was the point of my post.

He's young and super talented, the kid is not going to slump materially enough to impact his cap number long term. The major injury is legit, but that's a risk any player could have. If I were him, I'd bet on a fast start and look to circle back later in the season.

 

[PensandCaps]

Correct, Jake actually elevates his performance in the playoffs. Kucherov does not.

I mean....hard to elevate on being a PPG player in the postseason...Kucherov is a playoff beast.

 

[Shady Machine]

And what does he get if he puts up another 45pt season? Or if he gets crunched and has a bad injury? This comes up all the time... and repeatedly we see young players sign long term contracts that guarantee their financial future. Occasionally you'll see someone bet on themselves, but for the most part the player takes the guaranteed contract and will deal with the future when it comes around. I mean I'm pretty sure if I looked back at the discussions we had with Maatta, I would find you saying the exact same thing.

Do you honestly think Jake is going to put up 45 points this year? I'd bet on 60+ before less than 50. He put up 48 points in his first full NHL season after 33 in 40 his rookie year. His playoff stats are absurd and likely not repeatable over a full season, but taking everything together, he has produced at a 53 point per 82 ES pace and a 10 PP point pace. That's 63 points. I'd bet on that number as a reasonable range moving forward with room to grow.

 

[Pens1566]

It's the Pens, he could get injured.

 

[Ogrezilla]

He put up back to back playoffs of 21 points (42 total) for a 1.14PPG. Only 5 of those points were on the PP. I don't expect that kind of production over 82 games, but 0.85PPG playing shotgun to Sid all year and a 2nd PP that has Brass, Sprong, Letang, etc is pretty deadly. I didn't say he would hit 70 points, but I think he is poised for a breakout regular season and I expect 60+ if he's healthy.

I'm not saying he can't do it, I'm just saying it would be pretty insane.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Guentzel isn't getting over $6 million, the going rate for top end young offensive wingers is $6 million. His ceiling is the same contract that Ehlers got most likely, he'd have to have a monster regular season to hit $7 million. Personally, my guess is about $5.25 million for Guentzel. I don't think Guentzel has either the regular season production or the reputation to be able to get over $6 million a year. Not only did guys like Ehlers get the contracts they did due to their production, but also because they were former high end picks and were like 22 when coming off their ELCs.

 

[PensandCaps]

Kane got 7 mil off a 54 point season...don't see how Guentzel couldn't get 7 mil coming off a 50-55 point year. Difference is though, he is a RFA.

 

[Brandinho]

Kucherov's playoff numbers aren't bad at all. And anyone who has modicum of objectivity can see who the better player is.

Jake's first two years: 38 goals, 43 assists in 122 games
Kucherov's first two years: 38 goals, 45 assists in 134 games

Yeah, the guy who's two years older and has 3 more NHL seasons is better, what a zany concept. I took issue with your flippant dismissal of Jake compared to Kucherov, especially considering that Jake has been more impactful when it's mattered the most.

 

[Andy99]

Jake's first two years: 38 goals, 43 assists in 122 games
Kucherov's first two years: 38 goals, 45 assists in 134 games

Yeah, the guy who's two years older and has 3 more NHL seasons is better, what a zany concept. I took issue with your flippant dismissal of Jake compared to Kucherov, especially considering that Jake has been more impactful when it's mattered the most.

It’s really hard to equate them because Kucherov started in the NHL at age 20 with no AHL development...his first year he didn’t do much quite obviously and his second season he scored 65 points, which Jake has been no where near to hitting...
Jake did a lot better in his first season because he was older and had more development...but outside of his great POs, he hasn’t shown the same offensive prowess as Kucherov in his second season...

 

[Brandinho]

It’s really hard to equate them because Kucherov started in the NHL at age 20 with no AHL development...his first year he didn’t do much quite obviously and his second season he scored 65 points, which Jake has been no where near to hitting...
Jake did a lot better in his first season because he was older and had more development...but outside of his great POs, he hasn’t shown the same offensive prowess as Kucherov in his second season...

They've had such wildly divergent career paths up to this point. Jake had a much more traditional progression of college -> AHL -> NHL, whereas Kucherov had 26 games of professional experience in the KHL before he came over to North America. Kucherov is the better player right now, but I don't know that he will be in a couple of years.

 

[Ogrezilla]

Jake's first two years: 38 goals, 43 assists in 122 games
Kucherov's first two years: 38 goals, 45 assists in 134 games

Yeah, the guy who's two years older and has 3 more NHL seasons is better, what a zany concept. I took issue with your flippant dismissal of Jake compared to Kucherov, especially considering that Jake has been more impactful when it's mattered the most.

sure, their first 2 years are similar. But expecting Jake to make the kind of jump Kucherov did is pretty silly. It's not impossible, but it is highly unlikely. Kucherov is arguably a top 5 player in the league.

 

[Brandinho]

sure, their first 2 years are similar. But expecting Jake to make the kind of jump Kucherov did is pretty silly. It's not impossible, but it is highly unlikely. Kucherov is arguably a top 5 player in the league.

Big difference between expecting it and thinking the possibility shouldn't be dismissed so casually.

 

[Ogrezilla]

Big difference between expecting it and thinking the possibility shouldn't be dismissed so casually.

eh, it would be pretty shocking for Jake to become a 100 point player imo. I think it's fair to pretty much dismiss it.

 

[Peat]

I mean....hard to elevate on being a PPG player in the postseason...Kucherov is a playoff beast.

Don't be ridiculous, 1.06 ppg over his 34 last playoff games is crap.


p.s. Re the whole "Guentz can get 7m thing", here's the list of still RFA wingers earning 7m or more a year -

Draisitl (kinda...)
Tarasenko
Stone

And that's it. All of them posted 0.9 ppg seasons or better before their most recent contract.

I know inflation is real, I know the playoffs tilt things a little... but he's gonna have to go really nuts to hit 7m imo.

edit:

eh, it would be pretty shocking for Jake to become a 100 point player imo. I think it's fair to pretty much dismiss it.

He's not doing that without PP1 time. McDavid's not a 100 point player without PP1 time. And Jake's not PP1 with this current roster... to pick just one way of dismissing it.

 

[Honour Over Glory]

He's an RFA. That's your leverage right there.

Also, play off heroics or no, he still has a RS high of 48 points and would have to go some to get over 60 points... which would put him at about 6m, give or take, going by the highest comparables.

Not always.

 

[3074326]

Why are we comparing Kucherov and Guentzel?

I'm not being an ass, I'm just curious. I see that their stats line up for the first few seasons I guess, but other than that......... I'm a big fan of Jake, but damn.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

They've had such wildly divergent career paths up to this point. Jake had a much more traditional progression of college -> AHL -> NHL, whereas Kucherov had 26 games of professional experience in the KHL before he came over to North America. Kucherov is the better player right now, but I don't know that he will be in a couple of years.

Bold. I like it.

Sky's pretty much the limit with Guentzel's hockey IQ, work ethic, and performance under pressure. I think it's more plausible than many would entertain. The last time I was this confident about a young player's ability to take the next step, it was Letang just before his play took off into elite territory.

Back when I was a fan of Letang. When the world was young.

 

[Brandinho]

Bold. I like it.

Sky's pretty much the limit with Guentzel's hockey IQ, work ethic, and performance under pressure. I think it's more plausible than many would entertain. The last time I was this confident about a young player's ability to take the next step, it was Letang just before his play took off into elite territory.

Back when I was a fan of Letang. When the world was young.

Simpler times, my friend.

And yeah, Jake has everything needed to exceed expectations. Maybe he never hits 100 points, but I doubt Kucherov does that again either. I think it's incredibly reductionist to act like Kucherov's level is unreachable because he has better tools. Jake arguably has a better toolbox and we all know how important that is.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Simpler times, my friend.

And yeah, Jake has everything needed to exceed expectations. Maybe he never hits 100 points, but I doubt Kucherov does that again either. I think it's incredibly reductionist to act like Kucherov's level is unreachable because he has better tools. Jake arguably has a better toolbox and we all know how important that is.

 

[Honour Over Glory]

And what does he get if he puts up another 45pt season? Or if he gets crunched and has a bad injury? This comes up all the time... and repeatedly we see young players sign long term contracts that guarantee their financial future. Occasionally you'll see someone bet on themselves, but for the most part the player takes the guaranteed contract and will deal with the future when it comes around. I mean I'm pretty sure if I looked back at the discussions we had with Maatta, I would find you saying the exact same thing.

I have 3 takes on this...

What I hope for...
5yrs 5m/yr.

What I would be ok with...
5yrs 6m/yr.

What I wouldn't like, but I could learn to like...
5yrs 6.5m+/yr.

 

[PensandCaps]

Don't be ridiculous, 1.06 ppg over his 34 last playoff games is crap.


p.s. Re the whole "Guentz can get 7m thing", here's the list of still RFA wingers earning 7m or more a year -

Draisitl (kinda...)
Tarasenko
Stone

And that's it. All of them posted 0.9 ppg seasons or better before their most recent contract.

I know inflation is real, I know the playoffs tilt things a little... but he's gonna have to go really nuts to hit 7m imo.

edit:



He's not doing that without PP1 time. McDavid's not a 100 point player without PP1 time. And Jake's not PP1 with this current roster... to pick just one way of dismissing it.

McDavid though is a 100 point player without #1 PP time.

88 non PP points last season.

He'd pick up 12 more points getting #2 PP mins.

His season was Pretty f***ing ridiculous. Such a scam that he didn't win the Hart.

 

[PensandCaps]

Jake's first two years: 38 goals, 43 assists in 122 games
Kucherov's first two years: 38 goals, 45 assists in 134 games

Yeah, the guy who's two years older and has 3 more NHL seasons is better, what a zany concept. I took issue with your flippant dismissal of Jake compared to Kucherov, especially considering that Jake has been more impactful when it's mattered the most.

Difference is Kucherov was younger and was actually just as impactful as Jake in the playoffs. His team just happened to lose.

Kucherov's first playoff run he put up

10 Goals, 22 Points in 26 games.

How was Jake more Impactful in his first playoff run? They're identical. While Kucherov was a year younger than what Jake was in his first playoff run.

If Guentzel ever becomes the best winger in the sport like Kucherov has been for the past two seasons I'll be very shocked...I don't see him having the high end skill of a Kucherov, a Guy who can carry a whole team.

 

[Honour Over Glory]

McDavid though is a 100 point player without #1 PP time.

88 non PP points last season.

He'd pick up 12 more points getting #2 PP mins.

His season was Pretty ****ing ridiculous. Such a scam that he didn't win the Hart.

For what? Being stacked with top 6 "wingers" that did the job of a C so he can play as a glorified winger that masquerades as a C? His production dipped when he lost RNH or Draisaitl from his line that did all of the 2-way stuff. McDavid now talks about wanting to be better in that regard but we'll see. I have a hard time liking him because of the shit team he's on. That city doesn't even deserve a team let alone a player as good as McDavid.

Hall was more deserving.