Post-Game Talk (GBU): Sabres vs Leafs

[Reddawg]

I’m totally good with that logic, as long as it was followed by Sobotka sprinting for the bench, because he is one of our worst possession players during actual play.

All the more reason we should try to flip him for Brassard as has been suggested a few times. Better faceoff percentage, better advanced stats all around.

 

[sabrebuild]

All the more reason we should try to flip him for Brassard as has been suggested a few times. Better faceoff percentage, better advanced stats all around.

Sign me up. I said it before, but I’d do it just to get rid of Sobotka’s salary for next year.

 

[1972]

That was "future Norris contender" version of Risto

 

[Reddawg]

That was "future Norris contender" version of Risto

He was amazing last night.

 

[OkimLom]

Steve Dangle with some positive stuff on the Sabres. Really enjoyed his post-game talk which I was NOT looking forward to...

 

[Moskau]

He was amazing last night.

He's been very good for the last 20 days or so. I haven't liked him the last 2 seasons but he's always showed up against Toronto and for our "rivalry" games. He's embraced being a Buffalo Sabres player his entire career despite being on trash teams and I can respect that. How many players have shown up to training camp without a contract? To come hang out in Buffalo of all places.

 

[Sabres]

He played almost 30 minutes.


And he's like 12 years old.

I wasn't saying anything negative. I was just making sure I watched the right game lol

I thought he was dominant all game but was shocked when I looked at the numbers afterwards.

 

[hockeeyyy]

It was an amazing goal by an amazing player.

It was. I'm watching it again as I type this.

Unrelated: Dahlin and Risto were spectacular last night. Cheers. Good luck on the rest of the season.

 

[hizzoner]

Phil was right. Mittelstadt seemed lost. I was disappointed because he seemed to have come on a bit recently.

 

[joshjull]

Sam was rattled by the pressure. Sobotka made a bad pass on that shift too, that wasted a prime breakout opportunity. While they did seem to maintain possession well for the first half of the shift, they made mistakes and weren't good enough to match the players TO had out there. Toronto's superior depth is apparent in the OT.

That said, I'm still impressed by how we play in OT lately and don;t really think we need to change anything except for eliminating mistakes and dumb decisions.

Sobotka wasn’t on the ice when this happened. He came on for Sam. Erod was out there.

 

[Fezzy126]

Still can’t get over how stupid that play Sam made leading to the Leafs goal scoring rush.

OT is all about possessing the puck. No one should ever give the puck away when you have possession. It was mind boggling stupid for Sam to throw a soft area pass towards the net hoping Erod could some how get to it. Then Sam changes and Sobotka has to immediately defend a rush.

Totally unforced stupid play by Sam.

I was equally as miffed about Sam going offside near the beginning of OT, a day later and both of those plays - one with the puck and one without, still really baffle me.

My overall 'G' for the game - watching Eichel & Matthews. Every time Matthews touched the puck I was immediately filled with a nervous tension, like something bad was about to happen. I imagine that Leafs fans probably had a similar anxiety whenever Jack had the puck on his stick.

It's been many years since we've felt anxiety or elation when watching these two teams, and I'm very thankful that we'll get to watch this matchup for a long time...

 

[HappySabresFan]

I'm still really salty after that Matthews goal, such a shitty way to loose.

 

[joshjull]

I was equally as miffed about Sam going offside near the beginning of OT, a day later and both of those plays - one with the puck and one without, still really baffle me.

My overall 'G' for the game - watching Eichel & Matthews. Every time Matthews touched the puck I was immediately filled with a nervous tension, like something bad was about to happen. I imagine that Leafs fans probably had a similar anxiety whenever Jack had the puck on his stick.

It's been many years since we've felt anxiety or elation when watching these two teams, and I'm very thankful that we'll get to watch this matchup for a long time...

Having a day to digest I want to chalk it up to the pressure of the situation and a learning experience for Sam. We forget that he along with Jack, Risto etc are still relatively young on top of being extremely inexperienced in these types of high stakes NHL games. This past stretch of games is truly the first stretch they’ve ever played where there were any stakes involved.

EDIT: And I got over it. Sam I still love you buddy.

 

[is the answer jesus]

Easier said than done sometimes. Esp. in a 3 on 3. I was concerned that the Sabres almost got caught on a couple of substitutions during the 3 on 3. Just too much ice to cover esp. if one player gets in too deep and the back guy decides to change.

That's why you don't put a relatively useless player out against Matthews/Kapanen/Gardiner not even just for a faceoff. That wasn't the defensive "let's try to get this game to a shootout" line for Toronto like we sent out. If you are unable to win the faceoff you have a defensive liability in Rodrigues, a plug in Sobotka (but at least he can win almost half of his faceoffs!) and Dahlin. Such an incredibly stupid deployment by Housley.

 

[Reddawg]

Having a day to digest I want to chalk it up to the pressure of the situation and a learning experience for Sam. We forget that he along with Jack, Risto etc are still relatively young on top of being extremely inexperienced in these types of high stakes NHL games. This past stretch of games is truly the first stretch they’ve ever played where there were any stakes involved.

Well, maybe...but he does have 120 more NHL games than Auston Matthews under his belt, and he handled the pressure of the situation magnificently.

 

[joshjull]

Well, maybe...but he does have 120 more NHL games than Auston Matthews under his belt, and he handled the pressure of the situation magnificently.

If you read my post I said young AND having no experience in these types of games.

 

[Reddawg]

If you read my post I was said young AND having no experience in these types of games.

I read your post. Sam won a U18 Junior Gold, a U20 Junior Gold and an IIHF World Championship gold (where he scored five times in the tournament, including the game winner against Russia), he's played in plenty of high-intensity/high-stakes games in his career. Obviously he hasn't played in the NHL playoffs but there's no reason to pretend he doesn't have any experience playing when it really matters.

 

[joshjull]

That's why you don't put a relatively useless player out against Matthews/Kapanen/Gardiner not even just for a faceoff. That wasn't the defensive "let's try to get this game to a shootout" line for Toronto like we sent out. If you are unable to win the faceoff you have a defensive liability in Rodrigues, a plug in Sobotka (but at least he can win almost half of his faceoffs!) and Dahlin. Such an incredibly stupid deployment by Housley.

I get posters wanting to rant about Sobotka and Erod but the catalyst for that goal rush was a very stupid play by Sam which causes us to lose possession. Then he changes leaving Erod alone trying to get the puck vs 3 Leafs in their zone and the dman staying very high and not helping.

Obviously Erod isn’t going to get the puck in that situation. So the Leafs get an easy rush chance because of Sam’s decisions. All Sam had to do was be smarter, get it back to the dman or even Ullmark or even back off and ensure he gets it to one of his teammates before changing. He does that and we go to a shootout since he left the ice with 11 seconds left.

 

[joshjull]

I read your post. Sam won a U18 Junior Gold, a U20 Junior Gold and an IIHF World Championship gold (where he scored five times in the tournament, including the game winner against Russia), he's played in plenty of high-intensity/high-stakes games in his career. Obviously he hasn't played in the NHL playoffs but there's no reason to pretend he doesn't have any experience playing when it really matters.

The only one pretending is you my friend if you think any of those things are on par with a high stakes NHL game. Something Sam has zero experience with

 

[Fezzy126]

I get posters wanting to rant about Sobotka and Erod but the catalyst for that goal rush was a very stupid play by Sam which causes us to lose possession. Then he changes leaving Erod alone trying to get the puck vs 3 Leafs in their zone and the dman staying very high and not helping.

Obviously Erod isn’t going to get the puck in that situation. So the Leafs get an easy rush chance because of Sam’s decisions. All Sam had to do was be smarter, get it back to the dman or even Ullmark or even back off and ensure he gets it to one of his teammates before changing. He does that and we go to a shootout since he left the ice with 11 seconds left.

It's not just a the pass though, it's also such poor judgement to pull up and stop skating. Here's what the beginning of that entry looked like:

I know he's at the end of his shift, but there's <20 seconds left, move your feet and push the play here. Such poor situational awareness...

 

[joshjull]

The only one pretending is you my friend if you think any of those things are on par with a high stakes NHL game. Something Sam has zero experience with

@Reddawg

to add to the above....

I didn’t say he hasn’t played in pressure games. I’m saying he’s never played in pressure games in the NHL. I’m not excusing his mistake away. I’m saying maybe that was a factor and he learns to be smarter in the same situation next time.

We saw Risto and others make panicky plays vs Tampa that looked like a case of nerves. We saw Mitts get beat up by Tampa and seemed unprepared to protect himself for much of that game. Or another way to put it, he seemed shocked by it. Again learning from new experiences

 

[Aladyyn]

Having a day to digest I want to chalk it up to the pressure of the situation and a learning experience for Sam. We forget that he along with Jack, Risto etc are still relatively young on top of being extremely inexperienced in these types of high stakes NHL games. This past stretch of games is truly the first stretch they’ve ever played where there were any stakes involved.

EDIT: And I got over it. Sam I still love you buddy.

And it's also 3on3. Way different than 5on5 they've played all their lives.

 

[joshjull]

And it's also 3on3. Way different than 5on5 they've played all their lives.

True and I was thinking of that when he made that play. 5v5 thats not a bad idea. 3v3 its a terrible idea.

 

[brian_griffin]

Good:
-Sabres playing 5th game in 8 days, 4th in 6th with 3 of those against some of the top teams in the NHL, and 2nd of a back-to-back, and came out flying against the Leafs. This time last year we were lamenting Sabres not showing up for the first period most nights, let alone being competitive against the top NHL teams for 65 minutes.

Bad:
-Thompson taking two stick penalties - especially the one on the PP!! Then, late in the 3rd about 5 min remaining in regulation, taking his sweet ass time on a line change.
-Seemed to me the Leafs D gave BUF a lot more time and space with the puck in the slot than you'd expect a purported lock for the Cup to permit an opponent.

Ugly:
-About 5 minutes into the game when Berglund was quasi-hooked / tripped from behind in the low slot with no penalty called, the sudden realization the Sabres would need to beat both the Leafs and the Refs tonight. The feeling was reinforced in the second period when Girgensons was interfered with at the Sabres blue line, mugged up against the boards while attempting to contain / play the puck.
-Pierre McGuire's infatuation with Dahlin. It's like he wanted a hot tub date or something.
-The female Leafs fan, audibly apparent on the NBCSN broadcast, with the pre-pubescent shrieking of the ubiquitous yet redundantly banal and mindless "Go Leafs Go".
-Austin Matthews porcine snout. Serious endorsement potential there for Hormel, Jimmy Dean, Cargill, Maple Leaf, Johnsonville, Great Canadian Meat Co., etc.

Question: How was Austin Matthews first goal not disallowed for closing the hand on the puck? He clearly turned his wrist over.

I'll work the rest of my GBU comments into replies below...

Ugly
Housley: Why the 4th line in key situations
4th line: They don't hit, don't score, and didn't play D tonight. If this is their effort, give us 3 goons

I saw the Leafs having pure fits with Larsson-Berglund-Girgensons last night.
It was bizarre the NBCSN crew was surprised by Housley's usage. It's not been a secret he prefers to open road games with that line, and has preferred to match them against opponent's top lines.

Ugly:
- Giving up a goal at the end of 2 separate periods. Gotta finish strong guys! Wtf!

I could see the goal at the end of the second period coming. Pilut, for as great of a game as he had, on the defensive zone play prior to the goal, went to the Sabres far corner to backcheck the Leaf forward with the puck. He let up right before contact, I'm sure to avoid a hit to the numbers of a player facing away from him. If it were Bogo or Risto, they'd have turned their hips to make hip-to-hip check and delay the Leaf from playing the puck. Leaf was able to play the puck cleanly enough and a lap around the rink and rush bask up the ice and the pucks in the net. Just needed a little more tie up on that preceding play to slow the time/pace down and get to intermission.

G:
U:
Watching the last rush in OT and knowing that it was over before Matthews touched the puck. AM is dynamite and I hope he gets 14M next season.

They'll have to execute Marleau to stay cap-compliant if that's the case.

I still can not fathom having Vlad Sobotka on the ice in overtime for one shift let alone 2..
Get bent Phil

I actually agree with Housley. Mitts was far less effective last night than Sobotka, and Sobotka nearly poked the puck away from Matthews before his shot. I don't think you could have inserted another forward into that last goal and had a guaranteed stop against Matthews. It was an A+ snipe.

Ullmark and Bogo were not good. Dunno what game you guys watched. Bogo got walked all night and Ullmark posted a .867 letting in two wraparounds and 2 goals in the dying seconds of a period.

I thought Bogo's skating and breakouts were great. He's been outstanding this season, IMO.

I take consolation in the fact that TB and NSH were both much better than TOR, at least in the games we played against them.

(and)

Tampa for me is easily the best team in the NHL. Not sure they have a weakness.

Wholly agree. TOR doesn't scare me. TBL are fast, skilled, and physical. Vasilevski back and they are a force. Domingue is not even close in goal.

Hey Sabres fans, honest question about Dahlin.

That is honestly the first time ive seen him play, and he played almost 30 freakin minutes, and looked pretty good! as an 18 year old, that is absolutely amazing.

What has your opinion been of him?

After watching Dahlin, it's apparent Red Wings fans have been worshiping a false idol.

Why are we not instructing players to slash tackle and hook with less then 10 seconds to go in OT?

I would have just mauled the leafs with such little time. I dont understand why no one does that. No penalty in a shootout.

Again, I thought Sobotka played it very well, almost had the poke check by the diameter of a puck or so, Matthews pulled it back.

I'm cool with this set up if one of the energy lines has a two-way aspect to it. Sort of like the HBK line the Pens used during their 2016 Cup run.

Or, need a Jochen Hecht-like player who can put up 40 points and play a complete 200-foot game.

I went to the game last night expecting we would get smoked. When Nelson left the ice and headed straight to the dressing room I was sure we were cooked. I want to say that some of the guys getting hate on the team were really effective--Risto and Bogosian were terrific. Dahlin was excellent and so was Pilut although they made more mistakes than Risto or Bogosian. Beaulieu looked ok. Eichel looked out of it in the first period but really came on. Thompson showed me he will be a top six winger. His speed in catching Tavares from a standing start 2 strides behind got him into a goal saving position--and I thought it was a crappy penalty to call. Several cheap shots--a lot of hacking at Jack not called. Marner is so much like Patrick Kane. A lot of moving picks by Leafs to prevent Sabres from getting to the intended pass recipient. Ullmark generally good. Lower bowl was a sea of Leaf fans in Leaf jerseys--mainly Matthews. Very annoying.

Glad you went to this one. I had similar observations.

I know this probably doesn't help, but can I just point out that I don't think Sobotka did anything wrong on the winning goal? He played as close as he could despite Kapanen briefly blocking him. If you look at the replays, Sobotka got the stick down in the right spot, but Matthews tucked that puck in and out for a shot before anyone could react.

It just feels like the blame is on Sobotka when it looks like he played that perfectly as anyone could.

Exactly my view.

Another great part of this game:

This is game 1 of like the next 70 games between the 2 teams where both teams dont suck.

The rivalry has always been there between the fans, but I think a blowtorch has been taken to the rivalry between the players of both teams. It's on now! That's a very special thing to have when it's a rarity in this day and age.

Like Pulp Fiction blowtorch and pliers????

Reinhart's inclusion in OT is another decision that's starting to become baffling. He's been putrid there all year. It's like he suddenly forgets how to manage the puck and make good decisions once there's all that open ice.

He needs to be paired with Skinner in OT so he can go to open space. Give Eichel Sheary.

Wonder what the numbers are.. to me that difference doesnt seem big enough to justify it but maybe I'm underestimating the difference of 7 percent

7% difference in FO% is huge on a sufficiently large data set. But unless a player is very low - Mittelstadt level or worse, it's still likely a coin flip for a single-event situation. Unless one player really knows another's tendencies. (My response ignores whether or not Sobotka himself should have been out there, but again, I don't fault him on the GWG.

 

[joshjull]

Good:
-Sabres playing 5th game in 8 days, 4th in 6th with 3 of those against some of the top teams in the NHL, and 2nd of a back-to-back, and came out flying against the Leafs. This time last year we were lamenting Sabres not showing up for the first period most nights, let alone being competitive against the top NHL teams for 65 minutes.

Bad:
-Thompson taking two stick penalties - especially the one on the PP!! Then, late in the 3rd about 5 min remaining in regulation, taking his sweet ass time on a line change.
-Seemed to me the Leafs D gave BUF a lot more time and space with the puck in the slot than you'd expect a purported lock for the Cup to permit an opponent.

Ugly:
-About 5 minutes into the game when Berglund was quasi-hooked / tripped from behind in the low slot with no penalty called, the sudden realization the Sabres would need to beat both the Leafs and the Refs tonight. The feeling was reinforced in the second period when Girgensons was interfered with at the Sabres blue line, mugged up against the boards while attempting to contain / play the puck.
-Pierre McGuire's infatuation with Dahlin. It's like he wanted a hot tub date or something.
-The female Leafs fan, audibly apparent on the NBCSN broadcast, with the pre-pubescent shrieking of the ubiquitous yet redundantly banal and mindless "Go Leafs Go".
-Austin Matthews porcine snout. Serious endorsement potential there for Hormel, Jimmy Dean, Cargill, Maple Leaf, Johnsonville, Great Canadian Meat Co., etc.

Question: How was Austin Matthews first goal not disallowed for closing the hand on the puck? He clearly turned his wrist over.

I'll work the rest of my GBU comments into replies below...

I saw the Leafs having pure fits with Larsson-Berglund-Girgensons last night.
It was bizarre the NBCSN crew was surprised by Housley's usage. It's not been a secret he prefers to open road games with that line, and has preferred to match them against opponent's top lines.

I could see the goal at the end of the second period coming. Pilut, for as great of a game as he had, on the defensive zone play prior to the goal, went to the Sabres far corner to backcheck the Leaf forward with the puck. He let up right before contact, I'm sure to avoid a hit to the numbers of a player facing away from him. If it were Bogo or Risto, they'd have turned their hips to make hip-to-hip check and delay the Leaf from playing the puck. Leaf was able to play the puck cleanly enough and a lap around the rink and rush bask up the ice and the pucks in the net. Just needed a little more tie up on that preceding play to slow the time/pace down and get to intermission.

They'll have to execute Marleau to stay cap-compliant if that's the case.



I actually agree with Housley. Mitts was far less effective last night than Sobotka, and Sobotka nearly poked the puck away from Matthews before his shot. I don't think you could have inserted another forward into that last goal and had a guaranteed stop against Matthews. It was an A+ snipe.

I thought Bogo's skating and breakouts were great. He's been outstanding this season, IMO.

(and)


Wholly agree. TOR doesn't scare me. TBL are fast, skilled, and physical. Vasilevski back and they are a force. Domingue is not even close in goal.
After watching Dahlin, it's apparent Red Wings fans have been worshiping a false idol.

Again, I thought Sobotka played it very well, almost had the poke check by the diameter of a puck or so, Matthews pulled it back.

Or, need a Jochen Hecht-like player who can put up 40 points and play a complete 200-foot game.

Glad you went to this one. I had similar observations.

Exactly my view.


Like Pulp Fiction blowtorch and pliers????
He needs to be paired with Skinner in OT so he can go to open space. Give Eichel Sheary.

7% difference in FO% is huge on a sufficiently large data set. But unless a player is very low - Mittelstadt level or worse, it's still likely a coin flip for a single-event situation. Unless one player really knows another's tendencies. (My response ignores whether or not Sobotka himself should have been out there, but again, I don't fault him on the GWG.

That is an epic multi quote post. You are in fine form sir and its a pleasure to be included.