Prospect Info: Ryan Poehling Part 3 - Back to school edition

[Kriss E]

Great players have great stats. Poor players generally have poor stats. There is some chance that players with mediocre stats go on to improve their stats as they mature as prospects to a meaningful level. And here I thought you said that ''stats don't mean much.'' Seems like they contain a lot of information.

And some great players in juniors go on to become nothing. Some decent players in draft years end up becoming good.
If stats were as predictive as you like to believe they are, there would be a lot less failure at drafting.

That doesn't support the conclusion that ''stats don't mean much,'' even if I agree that this is a poor use of the stats that I posted. The most we can conclude from the table that I provided is that production in the Allsvenskan is at least predictive of an NHL career.

I said when it comes to kids (specifically, guys like Olofsson), you shouldn't look at stats, as they can be misleading, which has been proven time and time again.
They are not reliable measurements of future performances into the NHL.
NHL careers on Forsberg level is different than the one of a 3rd liner.

But hey man, it's okay, use stats all you want.

 

[NotProkofievian]

And some great players in juniors go on to become nothing. Some decent players in draft years end up becoming good.
If stats were as predictive as you like to believe they are, there would be a lot less failure at drafting.

Yeah, it's almost like these are trends for which there exist some counter examples. Everyone knows that any sort of statistical prediction must be 100% accurate - you know, like scouting with the eye test is - in order to ''mean much.''

I'm sure if you take a random sample of Swedish junior players you'll be just as likely to find NHL players than if you sampled from the top of the Allsvenskan PPG scoring list. Nope, nothing to be inferred here.

I said when it comes to kids (specifically, guys like Olofsson), you shouldn't look at stats, as they can be misleading, which has been proven time and time again.
They are not reliable measurements of future performances into the NHL.
NHL careers on Forsberg level is different than the one of a 3rd liner.

But hey man, it's okay, use stats all you want.

You said that they don't mean much, a statement which you've yet to defend. But hey man, it's okay, you can continue to ignore the obvious truth all you want.

 

[Kriss E]

Yeah, it's almost like these are trends for which there exist some counter examples. Everyone knows that any sort of statistical prediction must be 100% accurate - you know, like scouting with the eye test is - in order to ''mean much.''

I'm sure if you take a random sample of Swedish junior players you'll be just as likely to find NHL players than if you sampled from the top of the Allsvenskan PPG scoring list. Nope, nothing to be inferred here.



You said that they don't mean much, a statement which you've yet to defend. But hey man, it's okay, you can continue to ignore the obvious truth all you want.

OHL All-Time Points Leaders
Ya...stats are very predictive for junior guys.
By the way, you're focusing on a pixel instead of the point I was getting across, which you've shown 0 interest in even bringing up.
"Doesn't mean much" is subjective and you've never asked for clarification to better understand exactly what I meant by that, instead you went by your own meanings, and again, this wasn't even my point.

Anyways, it's summer, you wanna argue. Go ahead and put Olofsson in with Forsberg and Pastrnak.

 

[NotProkofievian]

OHL All-Time Points Leaders

Ya...stats are very predictive for junior guys.
By the way, you're focusing on a pixel instead of the point I was getting across, which you've shown 0 interest in even bringing up.
"Doesn't mean much" is subjective and you've never asked for clarification to better understand exactly what I meant by that, instead you went by your own meanings, and again, this wasn't even my point.

1.	Patrick Kane (RW)	2006-2007	London Knights	58	62	83	145	2.50	52	42
2.	John Tavares (C)	2006-2007	Oshawa Generals	67	72	62	134	2.00	60	25
3.	Dylan Strome (C)	2014-2015	Erie Otters	68	45	84	129	1.90	32	47
4.	Mitchell Marner (RW)	2014-2015	London Knights	63	44	82	126	2.00	53	36
5.	Connor McDavid (C)	2014-2015	Erie Otters	47	44	76	120	2.55	48	60
6.	John Tavares (C)	2007-2008	Oshawa Generals	59	40	78	118	2.00	69	22
7.	Sam Gagner (C/RW)	2006-2007	London Knights	53	35	83	118	2.23	36	32
8.	Mitchell Marner (RW)	2015-2016	London Knights	57	39	77	116	2.04	68	45
9.	Dylan Strome (C)	2015-2016	Erie Otters	56	37	74	111	1.98	44	23
10.	Taylor Raddysh (C/RW)	2016-2017	Erie Otters	58	42	67	109	1.88	37	67
11.	Christian Dvorak (C/LW)	2014-2015	London Knights	66	41	68	109	1.65	24	33
12.	Tyler Toffoli (RW)	2010-2011	Ottawa 67's	68	57	51	108	1.59	33	44
13.	Matthew Tkachuk (LW)	2015-2016	London Knights	57	30	77	107	1.88	80	45
14.	Tyler Seguin (C)	2009-2010	Plymouth Whalers	63	48	58	106	1.68	54	17
15.	Taylor Hall (LW)	2009-2010	Windsor Spitfires	57	40	66	106	1.86	56	46
16.	Ryan Strome (C/RW)	2010-2011	Niagara IceDogs	65	33	73	106	1.63	82	28
17.	Steven Stamkos (C)	2007-2008	Sarnia Sting	61	58	47	105	1.72	88	18
18.	John Tavares (C)	2008-2009	totals	56	58	46	104	1.86	54	10
			Oshawa Generals	32	26	28	54	1.69	32	5
			London Knights	24	32	18	50	2.08	22	5
19.	Alex DeBrincat (RW/LW)	2014-2015	Erie Otters	68	51	53	104	1.53	73	59
20.	Andrew Mangiapane (LW)	2014-2015	Barrie Colts	68	43	61	104	1.53	54	24

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

You were saying?

Your post might as well be titled ''how to do stats wrong, and prove nothing in so doing.''

Anyways, it's summer, you wanna argue. Go ahead and put Olofsson in with Forsberg and Pastrnak.

Yeah, that's exactly what I did when I said that the comparison between Forsberg and Olofsson was a poor one.

 

[Andrei79]

And yet...The all time leading scorers:
WHL: Brian Sakic (591), Glen Goodall (573), Craig Endean (529)
OHL: Stan Drulia (479), Dale McCourt (479), Wayne Groulx (477)
QMJHL: Patrice Lefebvre (595), Stephan Lebeau (580), Patrick Emond (575)

There are plenty of good scorers that amount to nothing as well, but yes, generally speaking great players will have great stats. That's essentially all you proved and I never disputed that.

My point was looking at Olofsson stat and going "hey, he produced like Forsberg", is completely meaningless.

Apples and oranges.

You're comparing production in draft elligible players to players that stayed for multiple seasons in the CHL. If you look at D-year production, none of these players come close to the top of the league. And with good reason: the best producers won't stay long in the CHL, they'll eventually get to the NHL before their overager year.

Here are the top 3 seasons, all-time, from each:

Q: Mario Lemieux, Pierre Larouche, Pat Lafontaine
OHL: Bobby Smith, Wayne Gretzky, Doug Gilmour
WHL: Rob Brown, Cliff Ronning, Brian Propp

Aside from Gilmour, Brown and Ronning (D+1 years), all of these were done during their draft elligible years, or earlier in Gretzky's case.

And, as I'm now noticing NP's recent post, this remains true for recent years and truer for draft elligible seasons.

 

[Kriss E]

1.	Patrick Kane (RW)	2006-2007	London Knights	58	62	83	145	2.50	52	42
2.	John Tavares (C)	2006-2007	Oshawa Generals	67	72	62	134	2.00	60	25
3.	Dylan Strome (C)	2014-2015	Erie Otters	68	45	84	129	1.90	32	47
4.	Mitchell Marner (RW)	2014-2015	London Knights	63	44	82	126	2.00	53	36
5.	Connor McDavid (C)	2014-2015	Erie Otters	47	44	76	120	2.55	48	60
6.	John Tavares (C)	2007-2008	Oshawa Generals	59	40	78	118	2.00	69	22
7.	Sam Gagner (C/RW)	2006-2007	London Knights	53	35	83	118	2.23	36	32
8.	Mitchell Marner (RW)	2015-2016	London Knights	57	39	77	116	2.04	68	45
9.	Dylan Strome (C)	2015-2016	Erie Otters	56	37	74	111	1.98	44	23
10.	Taylor Raddysh (C/RW)	2016-2017	Erie Otters	58	42	67	109	1.88	37	67
11.	Christian Dvorak (C/LW)	2014-2015	London Knights	66	41	68	109	1.65	24	33
12.	Tyler Toffoli (RW)	2010-2011	Ottawa 67's	68	57	51	108	1.59	33	44
13.	Matthew Tkachuk (LW)	2015-2016	London Knights	57	30	77	107	1.88	80	45
14.	Tyler Seguin (C)	2009-2010	Plymouth Whalers	63	48	58	106	1.68	54	17
15.	Taylor Hall (LW)	2009-2010	Windsor Spitfires	57	40	66	106	1.86	56	46
16.	Ryan Strome (C/RW)	2010-2011	Niagara IceDogs	65	33	73	106	1.63	82	28
17.	Steven Stamkos (C)	2007-2008	Sarnia Sting	61	58	47	105	1.72	88	18
18.	John Tavares (C)	2008-2009	totals	56	58	46	104	1.86	54	10
			Oshawa Generals	32	26	28	54	1.69	32	5
			London Knights	24	32	18	50	2.08	22	5
19.	Alex DeBrincat (RW/LW)	2014-2015	Erie Otters	68	51	53	104	1.53	73	59
20.	Andrew Mangiapane (LW)	2014-2015	Barrie Colts	68	43	61	104	1.53	54	24

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

You were saying?

Your post might as well be titled ''how to do stats wrong, and prove nothing in so doing.''

And those are what exactly?

Yeah, that's exactly what I did when I said that the comparison between Forsberg and Olofsson was a poor one.

Cool.

 

[Kriss E]

Apples and oranges.

You're comparing production in draft elligible players to players that stayed for multiple seasons in the CHL. If you look at D-year production, none of these players come close to the top of the league. And with good reason: the best producers won't stay long in the CHL, they'll eventually get to the NHL before their overager year.

Here are the top 3 seasons, all-time, from each:

Q: Mario Lemieux, Pierre Larouche, Pat Lafontaine
OHL: Bobby Smith, Wayne Gretzky, Doug Gilmour
WHL: Rob Brown, Cliff Ronning, Brian Propp

Aside from Gilmour, Brown and Ronning (D+1 years), all of these were done during their draft elligible years, or earlier in Gretzky's case.

And, as I'm now noticing NP's recent post, this remains true for recent years and truer for draft elligible seasons.

OHL All-Time Points per Game Leaders
Look at it from a ppg perspective if you want.

 

[NotProkofievian]

And those are what exactly?

U19 OHL seasons over the last decade sorted by PPG. The numbers you posted were silly in two ways. The first is that they were sums over different numbers of seasons. The top scorer on your list played 5 seasons, whereas Connor McDavid played only 3 seasons, whereas each entry on my list is a single season: apples to apples as opposed to an apple to potentially several oranges. The second way that your list was silly is that it combines players from different eras, whereas the list I presented isolates a cohort over which time the OHL has been relatively stable.

And what do you know, when you do stats right, you get less of a garbage answer.

 

[Andrei79]

OHL All-Time Points per Game Leaders
Look at it from a ppg perspective if you want.

Sure, this link isn't doing it properly however.

 

[Kriss E]

U19 OHL seasons over the last decade sorted by PPG. The numbers you posted were silly in two ways. The first is that they were sums over different numbers of seasons. The top scorer on your list played 5 seasons, whereas Connor McDavid played only 3 seasons, whereas each entry on my list is a single season: apples to apples as opposed to an apple to potentially several oranges. The second way that your list was silly is that it combines players from different eras, whereas the list I presented isolates a cohort over which time the OHL has been relatively stable.

And what do you know, when you do stats right, you get less of a garbage answer.

Sure, this link isn't doing it properly however.

Totally did not see the minimum 200pt requirement for ppg. My bad.

In any event, my point was comparing stats between Forsberg and Olofsson meant nothing in the grand scheme of things.

 

[MasterDecoy]

And yet...The all time leading scorers:
WHL: Brian Sakic (591), Glen Goodall (573), Craig Endean (529)
OHL: Stan Drulia (479), Dale McCourt (479), Wayne Groulx (477)
QMJHL: Patrice Lefebvre (595), Stephan Lebeau (580), Patrick Emond (575)

There are plenty of good scorers that amount to nothing as well, but yes, generally speaking great players will have great stats. That's essentially all you proved and I never disputed that.

My point was looking at Olofsson stat and going "hey, he produced like Forsberg", is completely meaningless.

I'm guessing they're overagers that stuck around forever. You spend two years in the w then get sent up to play pro, you aren't gonna have those stats...

 

[KevSkillz4]

He is a stud. Big steal at #25 overall IMO. In 5 years, 2017 re-draft and Poehling gonna be at top 10.

 

[G0bias]

He is a stud. Big steal at #25 overall IMO. In 5 years, 2017 re-draft and Poehling gonna be at top 10.

The top end of the 17' class is trending as one of the best in recent memory. Unless he sees an unexpected spike in his development and defies all projections, that's going to be very tough to achieve.

 

[DramaticGloveSave]

That draft definitely looks epic, especially for centers. Regardless, we were incredibly fortunate to get a C prospect like Poehling at 25.

 

[Sterling Archer]

Poehling gets very little love on this board because he’s a Canadien. If he was on another team, we’d be beating the drum to trade Patches for him.

You know I’m right.

 

[Redux91]

Poehling gets very little love on this board because he’s a Canadien. If he was on another team, we’d be beating the drum to trade Patches for him.

You know I’m right.

This board? you mean montreal? or general disc? because everyones feeling pretty good about him here regardless which line he ends up for the moment

2ndly, i think you mean more "if he played in the CHL" instead of the NCAA where its a little harder to translate the numbers

 

[montreal]

Poehling gets very little love on this board because he’s a Canadien. If he was on another team, we’d be beating the drum to trade Patches for him.

You know I’m right.

if we didn't have him, we would need him since it would leave on Kotka as a high end center prospect. He's our 2nd best prospect, I'm sure most would agree with that, so I don't see the issue. He's had a strange development path, it's just so rare that a HS kid advances in 3 years to college and he was likely overmatched in his first year so we got lucky cause if he had a bit of a better year i doubt he falls to us. Now we need to see him take another step forward in his development next year.

 

[Mrb1p]

This board? you mean montreal? or general disc? because everyones feeling pretty good about him here regardless which line he ends up for the moment

2ndly, i think you mean more "if he played in the CHL" instead of the NCAA where its a little harder to translate the numbers

He's right actually. People are so used to getting f***ed over by the team that they just don't want to get excited about anything. It's really doom and gloomy around here, people don't realize how good our future looks right now, especially with the 2019 draft coming in quick.

 

[montreal]

He's right actually. People are so used to getting ****ed over by the team that they just don't want to get excited about anything. It's really doom and gloomy around here, people don't realize how good our future looks right now, especially with the 2019 draft coming in quick.

maybe, in 2012 people this place was stoked about the draft, we'll see where it ends up in a few years. '19 sounds good but until we see how the season goes, where we end up, and how the draft shapes up it's still too far away to say.

But it's easy to see why people aren't happy, MB, Molson, Julien, the pro scouts all still here. The mood will change when they are gone.

 

[Mrb1p]

maybe, in 2012 people this place was stoked about the draft, we'll see where it ends up in a few years. '19 sounds good but until we see how the season goes, where we end up, and how the draft shapes up it's still too far away to say.

But it's easy to see why people aren't happy, MB, Molson, Julien, the pro scouts all still here. The mood will change when they are gone.

See, you're doing exactly what I'm saying.

"I can't have any optimism about this because I got shafted before" (2012)

Its cautionary, but maybe a bit too much.

2012 was a flop for everyone. No one came out of there a winner, it was the worst draft in recent memory. Galchenyuk and Forbserg being the best forward, when this type is usually the 6th or 7th best forward in a regular draft is just telling. Lindholm and Dumba being the best Ds too, same thing.

I don't think anyone was expecting huge things from Thrower, Bozon or Vail either. Galchenyuk was one and Collberg another, one flopped massively, but we shouldve known better, he showed serious flaws in his games and everyone got hypnotized by his international play.

 

[montreal]

See, you're doing exactly what I'm saying.

"I can't have any optimism about this because I got shafted before" (2012)

Its cautionary, but maybe a bit too much.

2012 was a flop for everyone. No one came out of there a winner, it was the worst draft in recent memory. Galchenyuk and Forbserg being the best forward, when this type is usually the 6th or 7th best forward in a regular draft is just telling. Lindholm and Dumba being the best Ds too, same thing.

I don't think anyone was expecting huge things from Thrower, Bozon or Vail either. Galchenyuk was one and Collberg another, one flopped massively, but we shouldve known better, he showed serious flaws in his games and everyone got hypnotized by his international play.

I've been here for every draft since '01 and the only time this board seemed really pleased with the draft going by the bulk of the posters was '12 and '18. There's nothing wrong with being concerned that '18 won't go as well as some here think it will.

 

[dackelljuneaubulis02]

I've been here for every draft since '01 and the only time this board seemed really pleased with the draft going by the bulk of the posters was '12 and '18. There's nothing wrong with being concerned that '18 won't go as well as some here think it will.

it was the garbage luck of winning one of the worst drafts ever lol.

Galchenyuk and Hudon still might have us win it. Don't know what Hudon will do still.

I feel good about this draft. Obviously there not all gonna make it but it seems like all of them with maybe the exception of Houde have some fairly exciting upside.

I don't think these last 2 drafts can turn the franchise around but it's a decent start. Have to amass more picks. Would love to stink for 2 more years if possible.

 

[admiralcadillac]

He's right actually. People are so used to getting ****ed over by the team that they just don't want to get excited about anything. It's really doom and gloomy around here, people don't realize how good our future looks right now, especially with the 2019 draft coming in quick.

100% agree

 

[montreal]

it was the garbage luck of winning one of the worst drafts ever lol.

Galchenyuk and Hudon still might have us win it. Don't know what Hudon will do still.

I feel good about this draft. Obviously there not all gonna make it but it seems like all of them with maybe the exception of Houde have some fairly exciting upside.

I don't think these last 2 drafts can turn the franchise around but it's a decent start. Have to amass more picks. Would love to stink for 2 more years if possible.

well it's no surprise to feel good about the draft, we just had a 3rd OA and 6 of the first 71 picks. In the '14, '15 and '16 drafts combined we had 3 picks inside the top 70, that's insanely bad. So Timmins has to nail this draft, just like he should have in '12 and '13 when he had 9 picks in the top 71. So far it hasn't gone that well for him although having a terrible development system will hamper things to a degree for sure imo.

I would think that as long as we improve our development process which I expect to be the case with Bouchard, now we just need asshole MB to stop rushing them or having anything to do with their development, things should go better. We added a lot of picks, we could add some decent players next draft hopefully although hard to say where the team will end up as I think they will be a decent bit better.

I really like a top 4 group of Kotka, Poehling, Brook and Ylonen as a good base of higher end prospects that bring size, skill, and skating outside of Kotka. Add in some nice depth parts like Mete, Juulsen, Fleury on defense and that gives us some decent depth on the blueline. I would be surprised if Primeau puts up such great numbers again but still think they have a solid group with him, Lindgren and McNiven although I would have held onto Hawkey as I liked him a lot and think he's going to have a big year. Just need a big time LD prospect with #1 upside, and more offensive forwards with size, skating, speed and skills. Get that and our farm should be in really good shape depending on how things go of course.

 

[JianYang]

He's right actually. People are so used to getting ****ed over by the team that they just don't want to get excited about anything. It's really doom and gloomy around here, people don't realize how good our future looks right now, especially with the 2019 draft coming in quick.

The draft was good in the sense that it signaled a new approach. I think we can all get behind a movement of stockpiling picks and and accumulating future assets.

The cupboard is not as empty anymore, but the movement is still in it's infancy. They gotta keep building up, and also find that high level prospect that can glue together the other prospects that are already here, and to come.

Depending on how lucky they are with things like the lottery, this can take several years, or it can turn around real quick, but the approach needs to stay the same regardless.