Confirmed with Link: Ryan O'Reilly traded to STL for Tage Thompson, Patrik Berglund, Vladimir Sobotka, 2019 1st, 2021 2nd

[jc17]

Who's said the Scandella trade was bad?

As for the Scandella trade, Botterill never replaced Foligno's defense, which directly led to O'Reilly's overleveraging and subsequent trade, so let's pump the brakes there.

This statement alone should indicate the way people are spinning everything against Botterill.

 

[Royal Thunder]

Who's said the Scandella trade was bad?

Someone earlier in the thread said it was because we didn't replace Foligno properly

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

Talk about how much Berglund sucks in the o-zone when he is a possession beast cycling the puck and pinning teams in. It feels like you're looking at numbers and charts and don't know a thing about the player.

Lol Berglund’s been on the radar since we were trying to trade Roy, and the Blues have been a favorite team of mine since Backes established himself.

Funny you do the standard “spreadsheets” song and dance while defending Berglund’s “possession” abilities. Wonder how you’re measuring that one...

Second part... So approximately 3.3 per game? Not that many when you consider that ROR took an absolute ton of "one and done" d zone draws because we had literally no one else to significantly help on draws. Could it also be that a better defensive team like the Blues had less d zone starts period? Berglund also mostly played wing this year and wasn't used in a faceoff specialist role at all like O'Reilly was.

So is Berglund replacing a major share of O’Reilly’s defense, or is he a winger...

If we want to go team relative, Berglund was 4th on his team. O’Reilly was first.

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

This statement alone should indicate the way people are spinning everything against Botterill.

Someone earlier in the thread said it was because we didn't replace Foligno properly

I said it wasn’t “a steal” plz get your reading comprehension up.

 

[Baccus]

That's pushing pretty hard to say it's "spinning everything against Botterill". And that's one single person.

Do people not understand you can criticize something without hating it?

There are levels between TRADE IS SUPER GOOD, BOTTS GENIUS and TRADE IS SUPER BAD, BOTTS STUPID.

Everybody feels the need to rush to a flag and defend it to the death, it's tedious.

 

[jc17]

Second part... So approximately 3.3 per game? Not that many when you consider that ROR took an absolute ton of "one and done" d zone draws because we had literally no one else to significantly help on draws. Could it also be that a better defensive team like the Blues had less d zone starts period? Berglund also mostly played wing this year and wasn't used in a faceoff specialist role at all like O'Reilly was.

Only even strength so is more like 2.5 per game. Out of 370 players who played 500 minutes or more ROR was 3rd in d faceoffs/60. But, out of the bottom 30 in that group 20 guys had higher p/60 than him.

 

[jc17]

I said it wasn’t “a steal” plz get your reading comprehension up.

What would you qualify it as then? Would you say we won the trade or is that just too much of a reach?

And stop being so miserable. I've been pretty polite in most of my responses to you. Take your"reading comprehension" comments somewhere else.

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

Only even strength so is more like 2.5 per game. Out of 370 players who played 500 minutes or more ROR was 3rd in d faceoffs/60. But, out of the bottom 30 in that group 20 guys had higher p/60 than him.

Jack Eichel was 10th in OZS and was outscored by 18 of the top 30.

Maybe... we’re a bad offensive teams

 

[Royal Thunder]

Lol Berglund’s been on the radar since we were trying to trade Roy, and the Blues have been a favorite team of mine since Backes established himself.

Funny you do the standard “spreadsheets” song and dance while defending Berglund’s “possession” abilities. Wonder how you’re measuring that one...


So is Berglund replacing a major share of O’Reilly’s defense, or is he a winger...

If we want to go team relative, Berglund was 4th on his team. O’Reilly was first.

Please. I do not discount analytics or metrics at all but I just feel like you are quite underestimating the player we are getting by referring to him as a garbage cap dump that was readily available for free if we wanted him. He is a good possession player on paper and in this case the eye test backs it up. Context is the biggest key to unlocking meaning in the fancy stats.

Berglund can center a good 3rd line in a more defensive role or move up to a top 6 winger who can finish and can help maintain offensive possession with his big frame (yes I understand the irony that some of this could also describe ROR even though we never used him at wing).

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

What would you qualify it as then? Would you say we won the trade or is that just too much of a reach?

And stop being so miserable. I've been pretty polite in most of my responses to you. Take your"reading comprehension" comments somewhere else.

How about you stop putting words in my mouth?

It was a fine-to-good trade, that would have been much better had Botterill realized its impact on the forward corps.

 

[jc17]

Jack Eichel was 10th in OZS and was outscored by 18 of the top 30.

Maybe... we’re a bad offensive teams

Maybe...zone starts aren't don't impact scoring as much you think

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

Maybe...zone starts aren't don't impact scoring as much you think

Okay let’s look at some other context numbers:

Only Nolan played with worse xG linemates, and O’Reilly was 4th worst when sorting by possession...

 

[Mattilaus]

That's pushing pretty hard to say it's "spinning everything against Botterill". And that's one single person.

Do people not understand you can criticize something without hating it?

There are levels between TRADE IS SUPER GOOD, BOTTS GENIUS and TRADE IS SUPER BAD, BOTTS STUPID.

Everybody feels the need to rush to a flag and defend it to the death, it's tedious.

I think most people do understand this. It's why the current poll winner is "win for the blues" and rather than "Big win for the sabres" or "big win for the blues"

 

[jc17]

Okay let’s look at some other context numbers:

Only Nolan played with worse xG linemates, and O’Reilly was 4th worst when sorting by possession...

Okay let’s look at some other context numbers:

Only Nolan played with worse xG linemates, and O’Reilly was 4th worst when sorting by possession...

And two of the guys below him, Reinhart and Pomminville scored significantly more, as well as the guy directly above him (Erod). I know you're seeing this before you post. Are you just hoping no one fact checks you?

 

[Gabrielor]

What’s the point of all the effort to statistically prove OReilly’s value here? To say “I told you so” in 4 months?

I think a large portion of this fan base is aware of how valuable OReilly was, and how bad of a trade it was.

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

And two of the guys below him, Reinhart and Pomminville scored significantly more, as well as the guy directly above him (Erod). I know you're seeing this before you post. Are you just hoping no one fact checks you?

Players who spent a combined 700 minutes with Jack Eichel and a player who was irrelevant beyond his individual production...

O’Reilly had a slightly muted individual year in a total outlier of a role while still having one of the strongest on-ice impacts on team and linemates.

 

[sabrebuild]

You always know when someone starts off a reply with "So if ...", they are about to go completely misrepresent your post.

What’s the misrepresentation? I don’t see how one can accept your post, without the obvious counter effect of what happens by following your advice?

 

[jc17]

Players who spent a combined 700 minutes with Jack Eichel and a player who was irrelevant beyond his individual production...

Hahaha

You realize you're saying the guys who ranked lower than ROR in Quality of Teammate, produced more than O'Reilly because of quality of teammate.

And I don't think e-rod was or will be irrelevant, but I guess that's just a nice way to dismiss his production because it doesn't fit your narrative.

 

[Ralonzo]

Apparently the Sabres took enough salary off the Blues books to allow them to poach Jordan Nolan.

I was on the fence, but that just pushes me over the line, BIG WIN for Blues on the trade

 

[Montag DP]

What’s the misrepresentation? I don’t see how one can accept your post, without the obvious counter effect of what happens by following your advice?

It's very simple. Zip15 said that we could have gotten those depth players without trading ROR. I pointed out that, as far as management was concerned, we needed to trade ROR anyway, so his point was not relevant. The main reason to trade ROR was not to get bottom-6 depth players, even though they were part of the deal. See? It's easy to understand if you don't try to put words in my mouth.

 

[TheMistyStranger]

I’ve given it some thought, let it stew for awhile, and I’ve decided that the poll is impossible to answer for another 3-5 years. In the short term, it’s a loss, because the biggest value pieces are abstract or, in the case of TT, too young to evaluate. In the long term, it could be a trade that turns the Sabres around. If TT is a 30+ goal scorer by age 21 and the Blues pick is dealt for another young 30 goal scorer, suddenly it looks like a big win.

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

Hahaha

You realize you're saying the guys who ranked lower than ROR in Quality of Teammate, produced more than O'Reilly because of quality of teammate.

And I don't think e-rod was or will be irrelevant, but I guess that's just a nice way to dismiss his production because it doesn't fit your narrative.

What’s funny, is that you’re clinging to CF% QoT while ignoring the complete picture painted by the context stats, then turning around and accusing me of selective analysis.

On the whole O’Reilly undeniably played too many minutes, in too many defensive zone situations, against top competition, with bad players. This is statistical fact.

Also on the whole, the team and his linemates performed significantly better with him than without. Also a fact.

A third fact, is that we just traded him for players who were not able to drive actual or expected success at the team or linemate level, nor were they top priorities for their (non playoff) team in defensive situations.

 

[Montag DP]

I’ve given it some thought, let it stew for awhile, and I’ve decided that the poll is impossible to answer for another 3-5 years. In the short term, it’s a loss, because the biggest value pieces are abstract or, in the case of TT, too young to evaluate. In the long term, it could be a trade that turns the Sabres around. If TT is a 30+ goal scorer by age 21 and the Blues pick is dealt for another young 30 goal scorer, suddenly it looks like a big win.

You can evaluate it based on today's value and still reevaluate later. How much is a 1/2 center with Selke potential worth today, vs. a late first round prospect + mid-late first round pick + 2nd round pick + two depth players / cap dumps (depending on who you ask)? I think ROR's value is definitely higher, but it's not as bad as some people are making it out to be. Of course, if 5 years down the road the picks and prospect we got turn out to be big successes or busts, you can change your evaluation in hindsight.

On the other hand, it's not really correct to evaluate trades purely from a value standpoint. Darcy Regier was a master at "winning" trades, but those usually didn't result in an improved team.

 

[MagnumForce2]

And to add insult to injury....the Blues just signed Jordan Nolan.

 

[TheMistyStranger]

And to add insult to injury....the Blues just signed Jordan Nolan.

That just makes the 1st round pick better