Confirmed with Link: Ryan O'Reilly traded to STL for Tage Thompson, Patrik Berglund, Vladimir Sobotka, 2019 1st, 2021 2nd

[struckbyaparkedcar]

I would hope so considering he's going to have Tarasenko on his wing.

This isn’t that great of a burn considering “playing defense for elite offensive players” was a huge part of his value that we never got to see because we’ve been run by morons.

 

[1972]

When I took away 100 minutes of ice time, and kept his points and he went up to 1.17 p/60. When I took away 200 minutes it went up to 1.29. Not exactly lighting it up, even with a generous toi deduction.

He cannot drive offense at even strength, which is why most outside of Buffalo view him as a second line center. A second line center at $7.5 million dollars for 5 years is a big commitment. I think that's a big reason why he was available. ROR is a VERY good hockey player though, I probably would have kept him at least for another year, but 2-3 years down the road I don't think having him around at such a big cap hit was an option.

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

When I took away 100 minutes of ice time, and kept his points and he went up to 1.17 p/60. When I took away 200 minutes it went up to 1.29. Not exactly lighting it up, even with a generous toi deduction.

That would make him 5th in team ES production, and anyone close to him had run with Eichel.

It also doesn’t account for him not being as fresh for scoring shifts due to still havin to play those minutes.

 

[dugman]

When a major player is traded, we often hear laudatory comments from his former teammates, well-wishes for success in his new city, etc. Have any Sabres done that for O’Reilly? (I haven’t seen any, and am just wondering...)

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

He cannot drive offense at even strength, which is why most outside of Buffalo view him as a second line center. A second line center at $7.5 million dollars for 5 years is a big commitment. I think that's a big reason why he was available.

That’s why the team and his linemates were expected to (and did) score more with him on the ice for...

Every season he was a Sabre...

 

[Zip15]

Nazem Kadri had a 57.9% dSZ last year and produced 39 Even Strength points, while making only $4.5 on a long term deal...looking at Toronto, my god is Auston Matthews a beast at even strength.

Speaking of the Leafs, it was even more frustrating to listen to Dubas speak about how getting Tavares allows them to play Kadri more against 3rd pairings and one of Matthews/Tavares against 2nd pairings. We could've allowed Mitts/Reinhart to play against 3rd pairings, as well, while Jack and ROR occupied other teams' top pairings. Instead, Botts said, "Nah, I'll just do the opposite of that."

 

[Aladyyn]

He cannot drive offense at even strength, which is why most outside of Buffalo view him as a second line center. A second line center at $7.5 million dollars for 5 years is a big commitment. I think that's a big reason why he was available. ROR is a VERY good hockey player though, I probably would have kept him at least for another year, but 2-3 years down the road I don't think having him around at such a big cap hit was an option.

He can and he does...

 

[1972]

He can and he does...

K

 

[jc17]

That would make him 5th in team ES production, and anyone close to him had run with Eichel.

It also doesn’t account for him not being as fresh for scoring shifts due to still havin to play those minutes.

Not Rodrigues or Wilson. Reinhart didn't even play that much with 15.

And I agree that ROR should score more, and will score more in STL where he's playing a different role. That said, I'm just trying to counter the "ROR is gone so we'll finish DFL next year" mentality, because I don't think he contributed as much as people think. Whether its his fault or coaching issues, I don't think he will be as big of a loss as a lot of people are guessing it will be.

 

[Aladyyn]

Every model attempting to determine individual player impact has ROR in the top 20. "Didn't contribute as much as people think" my ass.

 

[brian_griffin]

When a major player is traded, we often hear laudatory comments from his former teammates, well-wishes for success in his new city, etc. Have any Sabres done that for O’Reilly? (I haven’t seen any, and am just wondering...)

Possible answers:
1. Eichel forbade them to do so.
2. They're thumbs are too swollen to text because they've been sucking them to console themselves.

Honestly, I don't know, as I don't follow twitter. At all, not just Sabres.

 

[jc17]

Every model attempting to determine individual player impact has ROR in the top 20. "Didn't contribute as much as people think" my ass.

Fine I don't think he contributes as much as some computers think. Better? I don't get your point.

Can you link some of those top 20 rankings?

 

[brian_griffin]

Every model attempting to determine individual player impact has ROR in the top 20. "Didn't contribute as much as people think" my ass.

Especially when examined as a fraction / proportion of total team counting stats / situations / deployments.

Not Rodrigues or Wilson. Reinhart didn't even play that much with 15.

And I agree that ROR should score more, and will score more in STL where he's playing a different role. That said, I'm just trying to counter the "ROR is gone so we'll finish DFL next year" mentality, because I don't think he contributed as much as people think. Whether its his fault or coaching issues, I don't think he will be as big of a loss as a lot of people are guessing it will be.

Unfortunately, we'll never have the data comparison of a season or two of ROR + Mittelstadt + Dahlin to know how that would have performed.

 

[Baccus]

When a major player is traded, we often hear laudatory comments from his former teammates, well-wishes for success in his new city, etc. Have any Sabres done that for O’Reilly? (I haven’t seen any, and am just wondering...)

It's almost like it's the off season and all the players aren't around for an easy round of "what did you think about losing ROR as a teammate" questions.

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

Not Rodrigues or Wilson. Reinhart didn't even play that much with 15.

And I agree that ROR should score more, and will score more in STL where he's playing a different role. That said, I'm just trying to counter the "ROR is gone so we'll finish DFL next year" mentality, because I don't think he contributed as much as people think. Whether its his fault or coaching issues, I don't think he will be as big of a loss as a lot of people are guessing it will be.

The team has been hot garbage at managing one-way offensive players, which is now 100% of our top six center rotation unless Reinhart takes a big step forward.

And I haven’t seen many folks guaranteeing “DFL.” What we have been saying, is that we’re now less capable of taking advantage of our influx of young talent than we were the morning of 7/1.

 

[Duddy]

Speaking of the Leafs, it was even more frustrating to listen to Dubas speak about how getting Tavares allows them to play Kadri more against 3rd pairings and one of Matthews/Tavares against 2nd pairings. We could've allowed Mitts/Reinhart to play against 3rd pairings, as well, while Jack and ROR occupied other teams' top pairings. Instead, Botts said, "Nah, I'll just do the opposite of that."

Yeah, but we don't want to be competitive. We want to wait.

 

[joshjull]

Would it be fair to say every 30 offensive zone starts leads to roughly one point?

If Ryan was used 50/50 would his expected jump in even strength production be about 4 points?

Its not quite that straight forward. Zone starts in the aggregate have minimal impact on production. But they do indicate the role the player plays, particularly relative to their teammates. Which does impact production.

On average NHL players start 60.05% of their shifts on the fly, 10.32% with an Ozone faceoff, 17.85% with a neutral zone face off and 11.77% with a defensive zone faceoff.

Most of offensive zone start % numbers you see are just using the ozone starts and dzone starts as inputs. As in what percentage of that total (ozone starts + done starts) is in the ozone (ozs/ozs+dzs). Others are using the total number of OZ, NZ and DZ face-offs. But none are going a true reflection of the percentage of overall shifts a player starts in the OZ.

ROR's numbers breakdown to roughly......

60% OTF
11.3% OZstarts
12.3% NZ starts
16.3% DZ starts

If you want to up ROR's 5v5 production it would require better linemates in the usage he is in. Which won't necessarily be reflected in zone starts. Or change his role which should show up in his zone start numbers.


To make a long point even longer. Focusing on his Ozone starts is the wrong way to look at it. Improve linemates and/or change his role to improve his production.

 

[jc17]

And I haven’t seen many folks guaranteeing “DFL.” What we have been saying, is that we’re now less capable of taking advantage of our influx of young talent than we were the morning of 7/1.

I guess I believe that's what you and many others think, but statements made in these threads have not been level-headed and have been much more apocalyptic.

I think a lot of people you're arguing with, including myself, agree with your last sentence, but for the most part that's not the message people have been delivering.

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

I guess I believe that's what you and many others think, but statements made in these threads have not been level-headed and have been much more apocalyptic.

I think a lot of people you're arguing with, including myself, agree with your last sentence, but for the most part that's not the message people have been delivering.

The hyper-negativity is about the return, process that led to this trade, and Botterill’s ability to get value for the pieces he’s sold off in general.

 

[debaser66]

He cannot drive offense at even strength, which is why most outside of Buffalo view him as a second line center. A second line center at $7.5 million dollars for 5 years is a big commitment. I think that's a big reason why he was available. ROR is a VERY good hockey player though, I probably would have kept him at least for another year, but 2-3 years down the road I don't think having him around at such a big cap hit was an option.

I would say 7.5mill is exactly what a good 2nd line center costs today.
Other wise why the Blues would trade for him its not like they can afford overpaid players.
His cap hit is certainly not an argument on why he should have been traded especially where we are right now.
There are many players still on the team who a certainly overpaid for what the bring and nobody has been bought out.

 

[jc17]

The process issue is an aspect I agree with. I don't know if you're a Bills fan, but I haven't been thrilled by them despite making the playoffs. I think their "process" is flawed, if one even exists, so I see where you are coming from, but for whatever reason I have more faith in the Sabres management.

I wasn't happy with the return either but the reason I'm against the negativity is because we really don't know the full story. We don't know what else was offered. We don't know if ROR requested a trade. There are too many question marks. I realize some people think that even if a trade was requested we should have sat on him, but realistically when was his value going to rise?

As for value, again there's not much of an indication that he could have gotten more value. My biggest criticism of Botts has been that I think he overvalues speed and NCAA athletes. Although, after this most recent trade that doesn't seem to be true. And like I mentioned before, everyone thinks they know value better than the GM. When was the last GM we had that consistently surprised us in terms of value?

My last and biggest issue with the negativity is the escalation. I mean people are acting like Botterill is the anti-christ. They are recalling every move of his they haven't liked, while glossing over and down-playing his moves that have gone well.

You can complain all you want about this trade, and the process that went into the trade and how it affects your perception of the GM's priorities, but the mental gymnastics about how bad the Scandella trade was, or how bad the Sheary trade was needs to stop. It's to the point where people are just making stuff up to make Botterill look worse rather than just discussing the move itself.

 

[Sabre the Win]

When a major player is traded, we often hear laudatory comments from his former teammates, well-wishes for success in his new city, etc. Have any Sabres done that for O’Reilly? (I haven’t seen any, and am just wondering...)

You do realize players are capable of texting or calling one another rather than making a Facebook or tweet about it for likes.

 

[jc17]

You do realize players are capable of texting or calling one another rather than making a Facebook or tweet about it for likes.

But his point is usually they do the social media stuff and this time they haven't. Every player that does the public stuff is also capable of calling and texting.

I don't agree with argument, I think he's reading way to much into things, but your response doesn't really address what he said

 

[Baccus]

You can complain all you want about this trade, and the process that went into the trade and how it affects your perception of the GM's priorities, but the mental gymnastics about how bad the Scandella trade was, or how bad the Sheary trade was needs to stop. It's to the point where people are just making stuff up to make Botterill look worse rather than just discussing the move itself.

Who's said the Scandella trade was bad?

 

[Royal Thunder]

There's a lot of flawed arguments being thrown around in the wake of this trade, but I think the biggest one is the argument that we somehow needed to trade ROR to address our bottom-6 forwards. We could've obtained "scoring from the bottom half of the lineup" in free agency, and we may not have had to spend as much as Sobotka and Berglund will cost for the next two and four years, respectively. This was not an either-or proposition: we did not have to choose between retaining ROR or improving our bottom-6. These were not mutually exclusive ideas.




Because we could've obtained those type of players, or better, without ****ing giving up ROR.

Which UFA's would check all the boxes? Quality players, versatile, experienced, good locker room reputations, coming from winning environments? Riley Nash and Derek Ryan combined don't have the experience of Partrik Berglund, and Sobotka is more experienced in this league than both of them too even with going to Europe for a bit. The guys we got are more established as good NHLers. There were not a ton of quality UFA options and it's not like you are seeing a lot of good teams trading their mid level vets for picks (we got one of the best ones in Sheary).

As for the second paragraph, it's clear as day that management felt ROR had to be traded due to some unknown issue. To what degree we don't know but the trade makes much more sense when viewed through that lens even if some refuse to believe this without absolute proof.

There is literally no point of view from which this trade isn't trash.

I do not think you know what literally means. Unless you can provide a mathematical proof that the trade is absolute trash then your opinion is just another opinion. You're contending that it has never happened that a trade looks better in hindsight than it did at the time of the trade. Just because Ryan is the best piece in the trade doesn't mean we lose the trade. People just wanted a return where WE get the best piece (Thomas or Parayko).

And congrats, Berglund wasn’t trusted in the offensive zone (a place where he sucks). That’s why he has a 56% ratio.

O’Reilly took ten more defensive zone starts an hour.

Talk about how much Berglund sucks in the o-zone when he is a possession beast cycling the puck and pinning teams in. It feels like you're looking at numbers and charts and don't know a thing about the player.

Second part... So approximately 3.3 per game? Not that many when you consider that ROR took an absolute ton of "one and done" d zone draws because we had literally no one else to significantly help on draws. Could it also be that a better defensive team like the Blues had less d zone starts period? Berglund also mostly played wing this year and wasn't used in a faceoff specialist role at all like O'Reilly was.