Confirmed with Link: Ryan O'Reilly traded to STL for Tage Thompson, Patrik Berglund, Vladimir Sobotka, 2019 1st, 2021 2nd

Who won the trade?


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struckbyaparkedcar

Guilty of Being Right
Mar 1, 2008
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On the other hand, it's not really correct to evaluate trades purely from a value standpoint. Darcy Regier was a master at "winning" trades, but those usually didn't result in an improved team.
This is a funny comparison to make, because expecting a player like Mittelstadt to replace O’Reilly’s production feels downright Regierian.

One of Darcys biggest problems was a lack of contingency planning, especially to replace value shipped out. That’s been a fundamental problem with Botterill so far too. Without the value for the sold-off pieces.
 

Montag DP

Sabres fan in...
Apr 4, 2007
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This is a funny comparison to make, because expecting a player like Mittelstadt to replace O’Reilly’s production feels downright Regierian.
It's really remarkable how each of my last ~5 posts in this thread, someone has replied to it implying I said something that I did not say. I guess people just need to argue. Whatever.
 

jc17

Registered User
Jun 14, 2013
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What’s funny, is that you’re clinging to CF% QoT while ignoring the complete picture painted by the context stats, then turning around and accusing me of selective analysis.

Man you are unreal. Clinging to CF% QoT? You were the one who brought it up to justify lack of scoring.

In case you need the sparknotes:

Okay let’s look at some other context numbers:

Only Nolan played with worse xG linemates, and O’Reilly was 4th worst when sorting by possession...

You bring up QoT CF%, a measure for quality of teammates, to show context of O'Reilly's low offensive production

And two of the guys below him, Reinhart and Pomminville scored significantly more, as well as the guy directly above him (Erod). I know you're seeing this before you post. Are you just hoping no one fact checks you?

I give examples that people still scored with low QoT CF%.

Players who spent a combined 700 minutes with Jack Eichel and a player who was irrelevant beyond his individual production...

O’Reilly had a slightly muted individual year in a total outlier of a role while still having one of the strongest on-ice impacts on team and linemates.

You then say the people with low quality of teammates, succeeded because they had...a good teammate, while ignoring Rodrigues.

I say that you contradicted yourself.

What’s funny, is that you’re clinging to CF% QoT while ignoring the complete picture painted by the context stats, then turning around and accusing me of selective analysis.

And here we are. (With Rodrigues still being ignored). In that whole set, you brought up QoT CF% and then dropped it once it didn't work. So please, show me where I was "clinging" to that stat.

I understand that context isn't one stat. Its not just teammates, its not just zone starts, etc. But you are the one trying to justify things with single stats, and then get defensive when they don't really support your argument.

Not to mention, like I've said about 10 times, I don't think ROR is a 1.07 p/60 player. I expect him to be better next year. This is all about his contribution to the Sabres 2017-2018 season and how big of a hole will be left without him.
 

sabrebuild

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It's very simple. Zip15 said that we could have gotten those depth players without trading ROR. I pointed out that, as far as management was concerned, we needed to trade ROR anyway, so his point was not relevant. The main reason to trade ROR was not to get bottom-6 depth players, even though they were part of the deal. See? It's easy to understand if you don't try to put words in my mouth.

Relax. No one is attacking you. I don’t think you will really enjoy a snarky back and forth.

Your reply doesn’t really respond to what I’m saying. I read that the first time. What you are missing, and what zip is saying, is that viewing the trade like that is a bit silly.

I will happily agree with you that O’Reilly needed to be traded because he was a horrible guy, I’m willing to stipulate to it.

However, knowing that, you still didn’t need to trade O’Reilly for those two depth guys along with the futures in that deal. Because you could just have gotten equivalent players for free or for cheap in a trade.

Which means that arguably Botts watered down the return on O’Reilly, by taking back a couple of crappy deals with term to get a good prospect, a first and a 2nd that most likely won’t play in the nhl if ever until 2022-2023?

So basically it’s not an argument about the motive for the trade.

It’s an argument about the type of return Botts got and whether that return really makes sense.
 

struckbyaparkedcar

Guilty of Being Right
Mar 1, 2008
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Man you are unreal. Clinging to CF% QoT? You were the one who brought it up to justify lack of scoring.

In case you need the sparknotes:



You bring up QoT CF%, a measure for quality of teammates, to show context of O'Reilly's low offensive production



I give examples that people still scored with low QoT CF%.



You then say the people with low quality of teammates, succeeded because they had...a good teammate, while ignoring Rodrigues.

I say that you contradicted yourself.



And here we are. (With Rodrigues still being ignored). In that whole set, you brought up QoT CF% and then dropped it once it didn't work. So please, show me where I was "clinging" to that stat.

I understand that context isn't one stat. Its not just teammates, its not just zone starts, etc. But you are the one trying to justify things with single stats, and then get defensive when they don't really support your argument.

Not to mention, like I've said about 10 times, I don't think ROR is a 1.07 p/60 player. I expect him to be better next year. This is all about his contribution to the Sabres 2017-2018 season and how big of a hole will be left without him.
Lol you still think players with on-the-whole easier minutes and one slightly more difficult usage metric outscoring O’Reilly is this big “gotcha” moment.
 

Montag DP

Sabres fan in...
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However, knowing that, you still didn’t need to trade O’Reilly for those two depth guys along with the futures in that deal. Because you could just have gotten equivalent players for free or for cheap in a trade.

Which means that arguably Botts watered down the return on O’Reilly, by taking back a couple of crappy deals with term to get a good prospect, a first and a 2nd that most likely won’t play in the nhl if ever until 2022-2023?
If you could have gotten those pieces for free or cheap in a trade, why do you think they watered down O'Reilly's value? That doesn't make sense. Assuming Botterill really did want them, he would have had to give up that value anyway, either in this trade or a different one.
 
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jc17

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Lol you still think players with on-the-whole easier minutes and one slightly more difficult usage metric outscoring O’Reilly is this big “gotcha” moment.
I understand that context isn't one stat. Its not just teammates, its not just zone starts, etc. But you are the one trying to justify things with single stats, and then get defensive when they don't really support your argument.

I give you credit. You're really good at changing the subject and backtracking to the same few things you've repeated over and over for 69 pages.


Not to mention, like I've said about 10 times, I don't think ROR is a 1.07 p/60 player. I expect him to be better next year. This is all about his contribution to the Sabres 2017-2018 season and how big of a hole will be left without him.​


Guess I can change this to "11 times" now.​
 
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tsujimoto74

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May 28, 2012
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If you could have gotten those pieces for free or cheap in a trade, why do you think they watered down O'Reilly's value? That doesn't make sense. Assuming Botterill really did want them, he would have had to give up that value anyway, either in this trade or a different one.

Uh, depends on what you mean by value. The Blues have been looking to offload those contracts since some time in the middle of last season and couldn't find any takers. I suspect we could've gotten both for a late draft pick/future considerations.
 

sabrebuild

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Apr 21, 2014
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If you could have gotten those pieces for free or cheap in a trade, why do you think they watered down O'Reilly's value? That doesn't make sense. Assuming Botterill really did want them, he would have had to give up that value anyway, either in this trade or a different one.

Two things.

First I assume that St. Louis negotiated to put those in to trade cap space because of their other free agent moves. My second assumption for this point assumes the same thing you and others have indicated, the team had to get O’Reilly out and had some moral problem with paying his bonus. Which put Botterill in a limited position of leverage. Which means he had to take some poo to get a few good assets. Could he have gotten a better deal from a team that appreciated the lower cash value of the contract? Very likely, but we can’t know.

Second, Sobotka is a very replaceable player in ufa. For a similar or better contract. Which doesn’t mean that Sobotka has zero trade value, it just means we could have gotten his game without it being part of an O’Reilly trade. Berglund is a less attainable player in free agency for his exact production, at least what he did in the past, but there were a couple ufa’s who produced better last year and signed for shorter term and similar money as Berglund. His contract is the biggest problem of his addition to the trade.

So to many of us, those two guys don’t bring value in a trade for a star player. More than anything they helped make the money work on the Blues end and from the Sabres perspective, that’s a Pejorative Slured reason to include them.

I’d rather have gotten an extra 2nd and spent the money on free agents.

Now the general counter to this is that maybe we couldn’t sign one of these free agents. Which is true, but we can’t know either way. And it’s obvious based on deals in the last 5 years, bottom six options go to bad teams all the time.

Since the only thing we know for sure is that the team seemed to really want to get rid of him, and for some reason really didn’t want to pay anything to him, means that they gave themselves an artificial deadline, which means leverage over themselves, because common sense dictates that they would have gotten a better deal after the bonus was paid.

Not to avoid your last point, but I would be moderately disturbed if Botts really was targeting Berglund and Sobotka, particularly on their contracts at their age.
 

Tatanka

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If you could have gotten those pieces for free or cheap in a trade, why do you think they watered down O'Reilly's value? That doesn't make sense. Assuming Botterill really did want them, he would have had to give up that value anyway, either in this trade or a different one.
without the picks and Thompson the price would have been Sheary like or less. Armstrong has been trying to move those contracts since the beginning of last season. If they consummate a trade before the UFA period perhaps you are looking at a trade where ROR returns just the picks and a prospect which would have been better without the roster player(s). If Botts lessened the demand in number of pieces he could have gotten better quality albeit fewer pieces.
 

TheMistyStranger

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May 21, 2005
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**shudders**

I just had the mental image of Nolan embracing ROR in a bromance hug, ROR's head flopping listlessly on Nolan's shoulder, and Nolan whispering in ROR's ear, "You don't have to be better for me, Snook, you're all I'll ever need, just the way you are!"

Tell me about the rabbits again, Ryan.
 
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struckbyaparkedcar

Guilty of Being Right
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Paraphrasing Tyler Dellow on the PDOCast:

“Don’t trade *good players after terrible years, you get taken to the cleaners...”

I can’t escape this garbage deal...
 
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Panthaz89

Buffalo Sabres, Carolina Panthers fan
Dec 24, 2016
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View attachment 128565
View attachment 128567
Guess which one is ROR and which one is the player some here try to compare him with - Bergeron.

No, you were wrong - RR gets more PP time than Bergeron and less PK time. RR is 60 point player, Bergeron is PPG, while overall having also less TOI than ROR. Quit overvaluing ROR. He's good but he's very far from great. I am glad that bubble burst I don't have to hear anymore about how amazing ROR is.

Oh maybe check Sasha Barkov's TOI (including PK) and production and then tell me again how ROR's value was misunderstood due to too much PK time he got (hint, hint - 38% PK and still PPG, while having the same PP% time as ROR).
oh wow he isn't as good as Barkov or Bergeron....no Sabres fans were saying he was I don't get your point at all. Bergeron has litterally had around the same production per game until last year where his linemates both put 80+ even without him playing 20 games so please spare me the details it must be so hard to produce with Marchand and Pastrnak on your wings. Maybe ROR should elevate Scott Wilson to an 80 point player.
 

OkimLom

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oh wow he isn't as good as Barkov or Bergeron....no Sabres fans were saying he was I don't get your point at all. Bergeron has litterally had around the same production per game until last year where his linemates both put 80+ even without him playing 20 games so please spare me the details it must be so hard to produce with Marchand and Pastrnak on your wings. Maybe ROR should elevate Scott Wilson to an 80 point player.

Context don't matter in this reality...
 

Rasmus CacOlainen

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Sep 24, 2015
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oh wow he isn't as good as Barkov or Bergeron....no Sabres fans were saying he was I don't get your point at all. Bergeron has litterally had around the same production per game until last year where his linemates both put 80+ even without him playing 20 games so please spare me the details it must be so hard to produce with Marchand and Pastrnak on your wings. Maybe ROR should elevate Scott Wilson to an 80 point player.
Yes they literally did.
 

valet

obviously adhd
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**shudders**

I just had the mental image of Nolan embracing ROR in a bromance hug, ROR's head flopping listlessly on Nolan's shoulder, and Nolan whispering in ROR's ear, "You don't have to be better for me, Snook, you're all I'll ever need, just the way you are!"
that is disturbing, great work
 

Icicle

Think big
Oct 16, 2005
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oh wow he isn't as good as Barkov or Bergeron....no Sabres fans were saying he was I don't get your point at all. Bergeron has litterally had around the same production per game until last year where his linemates both put 80+ even without him playing 20 games so please spare me the details it must be so hard to produce with Marchand and Pastrnak on your wings. Maybe ROR should elevate Scott Wilson to an 80 point player.
Literally Jame every forum has been comparing ROR to Bergeron
 

Panthaz89

Buffalo Sabres, Carolina Panthers fan
Dec 24, 2016
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Literally Jame every forum has been comparing ROR to Bergeron
comparing him and saying that they are the same player are two different things.....I mean who else would you compare ROR too? Kopitar Bergeron type centers are exactly what his model would be...
 
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Icicle

Think big
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comparing him and saying that they are the same player are two different things.....I mean who else would you compare ROR too? Kopitar Bergeron type centers are exactly what his model would be...

People compare stats to show comparability, except when it doesn’t suit your argument.

Great job working with your cognitive dissonance coming up with that one.

If that’s the case, can we start banning all comparisons?
 
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jc17

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Jun 14, 2013
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I just can't wait until either O'Reilly or berglund has a really hot start, and we have to relive this thread at the start of the season. Or either the blues or sabres lose or win by like 6 opening night
 
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