Player Discussion Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: #1 in the draft, #1 to be traded

[TB12]

Apparently you can’t criticize Cassie on HF Boards anymore. It’s “intolerant”. I got whacked pretty good for comparing her intellect to a cow yesterday.

Passive aggressive avatar change. Love it! Lol

 

[Coffey]

Apparently you can’t criticize Cassie on HF Boards anymore. It’s “intolerant”. I got whacked pretty good for comparing her intellect to a cow yesterday.

Everything is intolerant on HF.

 

[Aerchon]

Very interesting contract for the Oilers.

Its my understanding RNH "enjoys" Edmonton to some extent. Might have some loyalty.

RNH, by most opinion i would think, underperformed slightly and was overpaid slightly on his contract.

But on the open market RNH could easily get paid more than we are thinking/hoping. Maybe as much as 9 per.

I honestly hope he bucks the trend of guys like Nurse wanting top dollar to supposedly play here where they love it. 7 years 50mill would be perfect imo.

 

[tardigrade81]

Damn you 95 voters!!!!!!!! Damn you!!!!

 

[Bank Shot]

You are using a hindsight with a small handful of the best contracts in the NHL to argue that the Oilers should have behaved differently. Subban got a bridge and had a break out year that ended up with him getting about 50% more than he might have gotten had he signed a longer deal at the time. Nuge's deal turned out not to be the great bargain that some of the others were but it was essentially full value for such a deal. Ryan Johansen signed a bridge and it resulted in an $8M deal. More recently, SJ got Timo Mier to sign a bridge deal but to get him to do so they now are facing a $10M QO at the end of the deal. UFA vs RFA is not overly relevant when you talk about 7 or 8 year deals. They are all gambles designed to try and gain cap certainty of to gain cap flexibility when it would be most needed. Some you win, some you lose and some you break even on. Nuge's deal was a break even deal.

When you say that inflation is the only thing that saved the deal I think you are missing the fundamental point of giving a guy his age a 7 year deal. You do it precisely because inflation is on your side. It was not luck that the cap went up as much as it did. In fact exactly the opposite happened. The drop in the $CDN and the NHLPA's decision to cut back on the escalator has taken almost $9M off the cap since Nuge signed his deal. If the cap today was at $90M how much better would Nuge's deal look?

The hindsight excuse absolves the Oilers management of any responsibility in their ability to judge players. They get paid big bucks to predict the development curve of their players.

I mean there were signs there. Like RNH putting up average numbers in junior for a high pick. His unsustainable PP scoring rates in his rookie year, and his average sophomore season.

They failed to recognize the player they had. They just handed all three of their young forwards big $6 million dollar contracts and assumed everything would work out. If the cap was higher Nuge's deal would look better. It would also look better if he was a better player. It would also look better if he had signed a 2-3 year bridge and then re-upped for 7-8 years at $6.5 million and we'd have like 4+ years left now.

Lots of ifs there. We do know that management didn't do great with this contract. Guess its a warning on just handing out contracts based on pedigree.

Hopefully RNH appreciates that he was treated more than fairly when it comes to negotiating his next deal.

 

[Captain Fantastic]

Apparently you can’t criticize Cassie on HF Boards anymore. It’s “intolerant”. I got whacked pretty good for comparing her intellect to a cow yesterday.

How is that? Was that in the mains or here? Mods are usually pretty good in HFOIL. I guess TnA is fine though.

 

[ThePhoenixx]

Hayes makes 7.1 and duchene makes 8 if you really think nobody would give Nuge 8 million after these last 2 years and especially what he has done since he has gotten legit linemates for longer than 5 games than you are out of touch with what GMs are doing nowadays.

IMO, the way he is currently playing, he is worth 7 -7.5 on a six year deal.

I like to ice cup winners though, not bad Duchene contracts.

I guess we will see which way RNH goes.

 

[Fourier]

The hindsight excuse absolves the Oilers management of any responsibility in their ability to judge players. They get paid big bucks to predict the development curve of their players.

I mean there were signs there. Like RNH putting up average numbers in junior for a high pick. His unsustainable PP scoring rates in his rookie year, and his average sophomore season.

They failed to recognize the player they had. They just handed all three of their young forwards big $6 million dollar contracts and assumed everything would work out. If the cap was higher Nuge's deal would look better. It would also look better if he was a better player. It would also look better if he had signed a 2-3 year bridge and then re-upped for 7-8 years at $6.5 million and we'd have like 4+ years left now.

Lots of ifs there. We do know that management didn't do great with this contract. Guess its a warning on just handing out contracts based on pedigree.

Hopefully RNH appreciates that he was treated more than fairly when it comes to negotiating his next deal.

There is no hind sight excuse for the Oilers since you are the one using hind sight.

Nuge had the 13th most pts/game of any 18 year old in NHL history playing 20 or more games at the time after going first overall.

18-Year Old NHL Players - Regular Season Stats

His sophomore year was easily attributable to his shoulder issue. But at the time he signed his deal he was at .75 pts/gm which was the basically the same as Sequin, Perry, Voracek, Marchand, etc.


At the time the deal was signed it was pretty much universally viewed as a smart move. And as it turns ended up being pretty much a wash. His career pts/gm is 64th amongst all players who have played at least 250 games since his rookie year. It is virtually identical to guys like Duchene, Monahan, Landeskog, Ehlers, Nylander, etc.

 

[Bank Shot]

There is no hind sight excuse for the Oilers since you are the one using hind sight.

Nuge had the 13th most pts/game of any 18 year old in NHL history playing 20 or more games at the time after going first overall.

18-Year Old NHL Players - Regular Season Stats

His sophomore year was easily attributable to his shoulder issue. But at the time he signed his deal he was at .75 pts/gm which was the basically the same as Sequin, Perry, Voracek, Marchand, etc.

His scoring was so high his first season because of abnormally high PP production. Everyone knew about it at the time. People were calling him a PP witch. He was 3rd in p/60 on the PP in the entire NHL his rookie season. He never came close to those numbers again.

So what was attributed to his shoulder injury in his second season, was just his actual level of ability.

Also, RNH's contract was definitely paid for potential at the time. Guys like Pavelski, Couture, Benn all signed for 6 or less coming off of 60+ point seasons in 2012. RNH got that contract with less resume.

RNH was paid more based on the assumption that he would progress, and he really didn't make any big strides over the course of the contract,

 

[oilynutz]

His scoring was so high his first season because of abnormally high PP production. Everyone knew about it at the time. People were calling him a PP witch. He was 3rd in p/60 on the PP in the entire NHL his rookie season. He never came close to those numbers again.

So what was attributed to his shoulder injury in his second season, was just his actual level of ability.

Just like this season, when he was struggling, playing through a wrist injury. That is also his level of ability?

A healthy Nuge is a difference maker

 

[Mr Positive]

7 million AV seems like the perfect number for him

 

[Zerotonine]

7 million AV seems like the perfect number for him

This is probably the minimum, I could see 6 year 45-48 mill which I could live with, actually probably be a solid deal on both sides. Open market he might fetch 8-9 per.

 

[Mr Positive]

This is probably the minimum, I could see 6 year 45-48 mill which I could live with

I wonder, though. And I think maybe we could have him for a bit under 7

We have seen that players who got big numbers next to McDavid don't get what their stats justify, or else guys like Maroon and Chiasson would get over 5-6 million.

It's pretty easy to show that Nuge got his stats playing with Draisaitl. The effect of the line change was night and day. Nuge is definitely a higher class of player than Chiasson, Maroon etc, but his value is as a two way player, penalty killer and complementary winger. Those are attributes that don't get the huge coin. So between that and the linemate factor, we should get Nuge at a little less than one might think.

But at the same time, it is face saving in that he's getting a substantial raise.

 

[Panda Bear]

Pre-injury rookie Nuge is still more dynamic, unpredictable and creative than he is now.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

Pre-injury rookie Nuge is still more dynamic, unpredictable and creative than he is now.

Skating and passing wise however he is smarter, stronger, better defensively and on draws, more experienced and has a better shot now (even though it was always good).

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

This is probably the minimum, I could see 6 year 45-48 mill which I could live with, actually probably be a solid deal on both sides. Open market he might fetch 8-9 per.

9? Yikes.

 

[McXLNC97]

This is probably the minimum, I could see 6 year 45-48 mill which I could live with, actually probably be a solid deal on both sides. Open market he might fetch 8-9 per.

I love Nuge, but highly doubt he would get 8-9m. Even though Nuge is on fire right now, a large portion is due to playing PP1 with McDrai and getting points there, along with playing with Drai on the 2nd line now. He's also only got one 60+pt season under his belt. Nuge probably signs for a bit of a discount in the 6.75-7.25m range.

 

[ujju2]

Pre-injury rookie Nuge is still more dynamic, unpredictable and creative than he is now.

Sure, but present-day Nuge is far more defensively responsible and capable, significantly stronger, and has a far better shot.

 

[Panda Bear]

It speaks towards Nuge's awful development that we get to talk about how he used to better at x and y. It'd be nice if he were just better (or at least break even) in every category like it's supposed to go.

 

[Drivesaitl]

It speaks towards Nuge's awful development that we get to talk about how he used to better at x and y. It'd be nice if he were just better (or at least break even) in every category like it's supposed to go.

The shakes and bakes in that video, particularly, are not often seen now. Beating Defenders out of their jocks. That player just seemed to have more drive, hunger, intensity. Could you imagine what THAT version of RNH would do in this teams topsix? He was more aggressive, seeing the ice better, bearing down on pucks and an unmistakeable mojo that we see now when he is playing with the very best players in hockey.

He's simplified his game very much, in some ways good, but in some ways a less dynamic player than he used to be.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Sure, but present-day Nuge is far more defensively responsible and capable, significantly stronger, and has a far better shot.

The shot was always there, you can even see instances in that video where he's already shooting blocker side inside post. The accuracy was there even in Junior. I thought he was going to parlay that to be a 30 goal scorer eventually. Its one of the reasons I wanted him picked. I mean he's a very good player, just that he could've been great. But the same could be said of Eberle, Hall, and the Oilers experience flushed some of the competitive spirit away. its nice to see Nuge get back to the pantheon. But really I wish he'd go back to some things like this where he created more separation, bought more time. One example is he's cancelled out his savard spinarama which was pretty elitely done, and he's replaced it with a simple buttonhook. I prefer more things in his arsenal than less jmo.

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

How is that? Was that in the mains or here? Mods are usually pretty good in HFOIL. I guess TnA is fine though.

Here.

Shit. f***. Piss. Damn. Goddamit. But it’s ok.

Can’t compare someone to a cow. So I am fine with that now that I know it’s in the rules but I didn’t know cows were offside. Live and learn.

 

[McDNicks17]

I just hope they don't Skinner him.

If you pay him for the points he's getting beside Drai/McDavid, keep playing him beside them. Don't pay him $8M to fart around centering his own line.

 

[harpoon]

It's pretty easy to show that Nuge got his stats playing with Draisaitl. The effect of the line change was night and day

Agreed. Not to mention that one of the supposed reasons for overpaying him was that he plays center (so much more important position ). When riding Draisaitl’s wing he should be taking a less. A lot less.

 

[McDNicks17]

8 points at 5v5 in 35 games pre-DRY line.

20 points at 5v5 in 24 games post-DRY line.