Player Discussion Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: #1 in the draft, #1 to be traded

[bucks_oil]

Thanks for the feedback guys.

It's just hard to tell whether the Oilers go with a Pens-style line-up with Crosby and Malkin being a 1-2 punch up the middle or putting them together on the top line.

as long as RNH gets some ice time with Drai and sees some PP minutes, I'm happy with him. Been a monster lately too.

Keep in mind that RNH had 69 points last season playing mostly with scrubs and we have more depth since the deadline than at any time this decade, so RNH will have some line mates regardless... (plus he'll still be on the same #1pp). I'd be surprised if his scoring rate falls much below 0.8

 

[BudBundy]

I loved the aggressive moves both on the zone entry and then the hard cut to the middle against Dallas in OT. The old Ryan Nothing Happens wouldnt have had the confidence to try that. This is the best I’ve ever seen him play. Period.

 

[AM]

I loved the aggressive moves both on the zone entry and then the hard cut to the middle against Dallas in OT. The old Ryan Nothing Happens wouldnt have had the confidence to try that. This is the best I’ve ever seen him play. Period.

He listens to the coach too much. Unlike others who have a different problem. Though much better this year.

 

[McDNicks17]

Keep in mind that RNH had 69 points last season playing mostly with scrubs and we have more depth since the deadline than at any time this decade, so RNH will have some line mates regardless... (plus he'll still be on the same #1pp). I'd be surprised if his scoring rate falls much below 0.8

He had 18 points away from McDavid or Drai.

 

[bucks_oil]

He had 18 points away from McDavid or Drai.

Yes... he obviously played on the PP with Drai and McD, so we'll have to factor that out. Let's see how he did at EV with and without them. You'd probably expect he scored at a higher rate with them than without, given how good they are and the drop-off in talent after them.

Not including McDrai, at EV his other common line mates were Pulju, Lucic, Chaisson, Gagner, Khaira, Spooner, Rattie. By my count, 45.55% of his EV time was with "scrubs".
Line Combinations - Frozen Tools

He scored 40 EVP, putting him third on our team and in the top 90 among NHL forwards. Exactly at the "cusp" of a top-line guy (3 1st liners x 30 teams). Other guys who scored 37-41 EVP included: Kopitar, Boeser, Horvat, Kreider, Getzlaf, etc. So that's pretty good company.

Playing with scrubs, 45.55% of the time, one would expect 18.22 points with scrubs and 21.78 points at EV with McDrai. And you say he scored 18 without McDrai... so isn't that EXACTLY what one would expect if his scoring rate with and without McDrai at EV was the same?

Meaning: Nuge scored very well with or without McDrai at EV.

 

[McDNicks17]

Yes... he obviously played on the PP with Drai and McD, so we'll have to factor that out. Let's see how he did at EV with and without them. You'd probably expect he scored at a higher rate with them than without, given how good they are and the drop-off in talent after them.

Not including McDrai, at EV his other common line mates were Pulju, Lucic, Chaisson, Gagner, Khaira, Spooner, Rattie. By my count, 45.55% of his EV time was with "scrubs".
Line Combinations - Frozen Tools

He scored 40 EVP, putting him third on our team and in the top 90 among NHL forwards. Exactly at the "cusp" of a top-line guy (3 1st liners x 30 teams). Other guys who scored 37-41 EVP included: Kopitar, Boeser, Horvat, Kreider, Getzlaf, etc. So that's pretty good company.

Playing with scrubs, 45.55% of the time, one would expect 18.22 points with scrubs and 21.78 points at EV with McDrai. And you say he scored 18 without McDrai... so isn't that EXACTLY what one would expect if his scoring rate with and without McDrai at EV was the same?

Meaning: Nuge scored very well with or without McDrai at EV.

22 points in 513 minutes with them. 18 points in 729 minutes without them.

He's been awesome since the DRY line was put together, but he's been terrible at even strength centering his own line for a few seasons now.

 

[bucks_oil]

22 points in 513 minutes with them. 18 points in 729 minutes without them.

He's been awesome since the DRY line was put together, but he's been terrible at even strength centering his own line for a few seasons now.

So that we can be on the same page... Where are you sourcing numbers?... the link I provided said he played 45% without them at EV in 2018/2019, not 729/(729 + 513) = 58%

Why would you find it even a little bit surprising that Nuge would find it difficult to score with line mates like Rattie, Lucic and Pulju? That's more an indictment of our depth the last two years than it is of Nuge.

How does Drai score at EV when away from Nuge and McD?

How does McD score at EV when away from Nuge and Drai?

I'd expect their numbers to be better... they are better players... but I'm sure it would show them scoring at a reduced rate too.

And put your numbers in context. (Even if I accept your number of 729 minutes without...) why are we saying that 18 EV points during that time is a failure? 729/18mins a night at EV = 40 games. 18 EV points x 2 = 36 EV points over a season, which is right there with the likes of Getzlaf and Kopitar last year... and I'll bet the quality of their line mates was just a bit higher than Nuge's.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

22 points in 513 minutes with them. 18 points in 729 minutes without them.

He's been awesome since the DRY line was put together, but he's been terrible at even strength centering his own line for a few seasons now.

Imagine that, an uptick when you play with one of the top players in the world. I'd still like to see Drai's stats away from McDavid and Nuge. You need more than 1 player on a line to make things happen.

 

[McDNicks17]

So that we can be on the same page... Where are you sourcing numbers?... the link I provided said he played 45% without them at EV in 2018/2019, not 729/(729 + 513) = 58%

Why would you find it even a little bit surprising that Nuge would find it difficult to score with line mates like Rattie, Lucic and Pulju? That's more an indictment of our depth the last two years than it is of Nuge.

How does Drai score at EV when away from Nuge and McD?

How does McD score at EV when away from Nuge and Drai?

I'd expect their numbers to be better... they are better players... but I'm sure it would show them scoring at a reduced rate too.

And put your numbers in context. (Even if I accept your number of 729 minutes without...) why are we saying that 18 EV points during that time is a failure? 729/18mins a night at EV = 40 games. 18 EV points x 2 = 36 EV points over a season, which is right there with the likes of Getzlaf and Kopitar last year... and I'll bet the quality of their line mates was just a bit higher than Nuge's.

Line Stats - Natural Stat Trick

It's bad because he had a 1.48 P/60 at even strength away from McDrai. That would put him between Caggiula and Khaira in scoring on last year's team.

He also had the worst possession metrics on the team and some of the worst in the entire league for regular players last year.


He's had infinitely better results on the wing. They would be silly to move him back to center unless they're forced to by an injury.

 

[ToeMcDrag83]

Nuge has been stellar.
Anti-Nuge posts are silly at this point.

 

[FlameChampion]

I wish we could clone him and put another RNH on McDavids line.

 

[ujju2]

I wish we could clone him and put another RNH on McDavids line.

To be fair, if I could clone someone it would be Draisaitl or McDavid, but I see your point haha.

 

[Fourier]

Line Stats - Natural Stat Trick

It's bad because he had a 1.48 P/60 at even strength away from McDrai. That would put him between Caggiula and Khaira in scoring on last year's team.

He also had the worst possession metrics on the team and some of the worst in the entire league for regular players last year.


He's had infinitely better results on the wing. They would be silly to move him back to center unless they're forced to by an injury.

And by those numbers his possession metrics were slightly worse than Draisaitl's away from the other two. But the GF% was much better with Nuge in that role. So your statistical argument would seem to be equally valid in proving that Draisaitl should not play center. McDavid was even further under water playing by himself.

Is it possible that what your numbers actually reveal is that playing against top 6 opposition with the rest of the Oilers support group last year was a no win situation.

There is not a single top player, with the possible exception of Crosby whose game is basically skilled grinding that would be above water with the guys the Oilers put out there last year beyond the big three.

 

[ToeMcDrag83]

I like how the driving force behind any prolonged criticism of Nuge/Drai/McDavid is that they couldn't drag the beyond ass team put together around them for years.
Even now we're still seeking a semi competent winger for McDavid because of Chiaturd. Top 6 players need other top 6 players, it's not that complicated.

 

[AM]

Line Stats - Natural Stat Trick

It's bad because he had a 1.48 P/60 at even strength away from McDrai. That would put him between Caggiula and Khaira in scoring on last year's team.

He also had the worst possession metrics on the team and some of the worst in the entire league for regular players last year.


He's had infinitely better results on the wing. They would be silly to move him back to center unless they're forced to by an injury.

His competition was tough though.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

And by those numbers his possession metrics were slightly worse than Draisaitl's away from the other two. But the GF% was much better with Nuge in that role. So your statistical argument would seem to be equally valid in proving that Draisaitl should not play center. McDavid was even further under water playing by himself.

Is it possible that what your numbers actually reveal is that playing against top 6 opposition with the rest of the Oilers support group last year was a no win situation.

There is not a single top player, with the possible exception of Crosby whose game is basically skilled grinding that would be above water with the guys the Oilers put out their last year beyond the big three.

Bingo. Everyone loves to point to Draisaitl being so great this season but even he has had a tough go when not playing with Connor or Nuge. Move RNH and Yamamoto to Connor's line and give Drai Archibald and Kassian/Neal and the roles are reversed. People don't give RNH and Yamamoto the credit they deserve for that line's success. We all know that Drai is the best player on that line, but it's a successful line because of what each player brings to the table not in spite of any of them.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

And by those numbers his possession metrics were slightly worse than Draisaitl's away from the other two. But the GF% was much better with Nuge in that role. So your statistical argument would seem to be equally valid in proving that Draisaitl should not play center. McDavid was even further under water playing by himself.

Is it possible that what your numbers actually reveal is that playing against top 6 opposition with the rest of the Oilers support group last year was a no win situation.

There is not a single top player, with the possible exception of Crosby whose game is basically skilled grinding that would be above water with the guys the Oilers put out there last year beyond the big three.

Perspective is everything. I love that additional data is helping to expand how we view and appreciate the game. However it is also reflects the challenge involved if data is not interpreted accurately. Data isn't helpful when it is used to foster wrong conclusions. It can and does occasionally help to foster confirmation bias.

 

[ThePhoenixx]

We need to spam post this thread until it hits 1k and is permanently retired.

Where is that Drive guy when you need him?

 

[McShogun99]

All that matters to me is that he's outscoring Johnny Hockey.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

We need to spam post this thread until it hits 1k and is permanently retired.

Where is that Drive guy when you need him?

He's in detroit looking for Gagner.

 

[BudBundy]

All that matters to me is that he's outscoring Johnny Hockey.

But but bbbbbut according to CP, Johnny Hockey is just as good as McDavid.

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

But but bbbbbut according to CP, Johnny Hockey is just as good as McDavid.

Have they actually said that? Haha

 

[Fourier]

But but bbbbbut according to CP, Johnny Hockey is just as good as McDavid.

But if you read the first few pages of this thread Nuge is basically a cap dump. And today we find out that Draisaitl is a selfish player who is hurting the team and who should not see the ice in overtime.

While this board may well be much better than CP it suffers from many of the same flaws. Not the least of these are the wild swings we see about player's worth based often on a handful of games or even as little as one play. Remember, this thread was started because Nuge lost the puck at the beginning of a game vs the Flames. Roughly 1/3 of the thread is devoted to running him out of town, 1/3 is a 50-50 discussion about whether or not he has been over paid, and the last 1/3 is how much he is part of the core and needs to stay.

 

[CupofOil]

But if you read the first few pages of this thread Nuge is basically a cap dump. And today we find out that Draisaitl is a selfish player who is hurting the team and who should not see the ice in overtime.

While this board may well be much better than CP it suffers from many of the same flaws. Not the least of these are the wild swings we see about player's worth based often on a handful of games or even as little as one play. Remember, this thread was started because Nuge lost the puck at the beginning of a game vs the Flames. Roughly 1/3 of the thread is devoted to running him out of town, 1/3 is a 50-50 discussion about whether or not he has been over paid, and the last 1/3 is how much he is part of the core and needs to stay.

This is the case with every fanbase, that's why they're called "fanatics". The bipolar nature just becomes more exposed with larger, rabid fanbases like this one. It does get a little out of control at times on this board, no doubt.

I consider myself "relatively" level headed and even I have waivered many times on this player to extremes at times. There have been times even with skill (Eberle in '16'-17 and a few seasons with Hall and Eberle) when he's looked entirely average and disappeared for long stretches so the criticism isn't exactly without merit.
He's playing with a lot of offensive confidence now that he's not asked to carry a heavy load. I've always maintained that he can thrive as the 2nd best player on a line and here we are. As you know and we've had debates about this in the past, I've been clamoring for him and Drai to be put together for years because he can't carry his own line and McDavid is the most capable on this team of driving a line or at least he was until this year. Now if they can get McDavid going, we'll really have something.

 

[Gordy Elbows]

I had no time for RNH as a center (regardless of who the wingers were)....and was not impressed by his contract over that span.
His play on the wing - with decent line mates - has improved his game 100%.
If this is the long-term strategy for using RNH, then let's extend using comparables.