Player Discussion Ryan Kesler

[iFan]

Kesler, Bieksa and Luongo my favorite Canucks, only thing keeping me as a Canuck fan is Horvat. Glad too see Kesler doing so well! Wished Bieksa was better for you guys, loved him when he was a Nuck, one of the few guys on our team who would stick up for teammates. Given how hard Kesler plays, I'm a bit surprised to see his body still holding up this late in his career, usually players like him fade off by now. I don't get why Canuck fans boo Kesler, he gave it his all when he was here.

 

[The Midnight Burrito]

Kesler, Bieksa and Luongo my favorite Canucks, only thing keeping me as a Canuck fan is Horvat. Glad too see Kesler doing so well! Wished Bieksa was better for you guys, loved him when he was a Nuck, one of the few guys on our team who would stick up for teammates. Given how hard Kesler plays, I'm a bit surprised to see his body still holding up this late in his career, usually players like him fade off by now. I don't get why Canuck fans boo Kesler, he gave it his all when he was here.

I imagine it's because he bailed when the team started to suck, and did it in a way that handcuffed the team. It's pretty understandable.

 

[Vipers31]

I imagine it's because he bailed when the team started to suck, and did it in a way that handcuffed the team. It's pretty understandable.

Well, the NTC is a pair of handcuffs that the Canucks put on themselves when agreeing on the contract, and it most certainly cost Kesler a few million dollars to get it included. So, I'm always a bit hesitant to blame a guy for not making use of the right he basically paid a few million bucks for.

Being unhappy with him jumping ship is understandable, though. At least from people that aren't on the "full tank trade everybody over 25" train, to begin with.

 

[KaseMeOutside]

Randy is running him into the ground

 

[Paul4587]

Randy is running him into the ground

He still looks fine out there, he's just not scoring as much. He's always been streaky and was never going to maintain a 30 goal 70 point pace.

 

[The Midnight Burrito]

Well, the NTC is a pair of handcuffs that the Canucks put on themselves when agreeing on the contract, and it most certainly cost Kesler a few million dollars to get it included. So, I'm always a bit hesitant to blame a guy for not making use of the right he basically paid a few million bucks for.

Being unhappy with him jumping ship is understandable, though. At least from people that aren't on the "full tank trade everybody over 25" train, to begin with.

Not really the same IMO. Players get NTCs as protection against being traded for the most part - they want security. Kesler used it offensively, demanding a trade to one of two teams. And it was made public, although I don't remember how that happened anymore. That's a dick move.

 

[Sojourn]

Today I learned that Kesler only has a slight edge in faceoffs over Stepan.

 

[Vipers31]

Not really the same IMO. Players get NTCs as protection against being traded for the most part - they want security. Kesler used it offensively, demanding a trade to one of two teams.

I really don't think either players or teams see an NTC as one-dimensional like that, though. Was there really any player that asked for a trade and simply waived his NTC for any destination imagineable? I honestly can't recall that. Sure, it primarily secures not being traded against your will, but over the years, the function to secure going to the right place upon a requested trade has been very clear to all sides. An NTC is just full-on control. If the team doesn't get something to work with from the accepted destinations, they can just decide to not comply with the request, like with Hamonic or Drouin (even without the NTCs to limit the markets). But I really think any GM knows full well what he's bargaining over when a player wants an NTC, and that includes the players control over the destinations regardless of whether it's the team or the player that's pushing for a trade.

Also, I think I recently saw Kesler saying that he had only once been asked to waive it, which was for Anaheim, and momentarily before the trade went down. Maybe that's just talk, and his agent had made it clear to the Canucks that he'd only waive it for Anaheim and Chicago like some rumors had it, but maybe it was just rumors being rumors, as well.

 

[Vipers31]

Today I learned that Kesler only has a slight edge in faceoffs over Stepan.

My biggest takeaway from that thread was that Fowler's biggest fan no longer has a blue name.

 

[The Midnight Burrito]

I really don't think either players or teams see an NTC as one-dimensional like that, though. Was there really any player that asked for a trade and simply waived his NTC for any destination imagineable? I honestly can't recall that.

It doesn't matter. These kinds of controls spring up in the context of their systems. Players are traded at the direction of the team orders of magnitude more often than do players demand trades. So while technically it'd be incorrect to view it as one-dimensional, that doesn't mean it isn't seen that way. The rest of what you said I don't think matters either, since it's from the perspective of the savvy GM, but the premise here is "I don't get why fans were mad." I do.

Also, I think I recently saw Kesler saying that he had only once been asked to waive it, which was for Anaheim, and momentarily before the trade went down. Maybe that's just talk, and his agent had made it clear to the Canucks that he'd only waive it for Anaheim and Chicago like some rumors had it, but maybe it was just rumors being rumors, as well.

Even if that's a thing that you heard and is true, it wouldn't exclude him making it known that he'd only be willing to waive for two teams, so it doesn't really get us anywhere.

 

[Lord Flashheart]

Today I learned that Kesler only has a slight edge in faceoffs over Stepan.

Lolwut?

Edit: I've seen the thread. "Kesler is overrated defensively" is a line that no head coach, in the entire league, has ever said.

 

[Vipers31]

So while technically it'd be incorrect to view it as one-dimensional, that doesn't mean it isn't seen that way. The rest of what you said I don't think matters either, since it's from the perspective of the savvy GM, but the premise here is "I don't get why fans were mad." I do.

Maybe you were just going for the more literal interpretation of that premise. I also do get "why" they are mad, just like how I understand how people emotionally or ignorantly get all kinds of things wrong, I just don't think they have a claim to that emotion in that case. The practice in regards to NTCs makes it pretty evident that it's incorrect to view them as one-dimensional, so if people see it differently and get mad as a result of it, I understand how we reach that bottom line, but that doesn't validate it.

 

[Sojourn]

My biggest takeaway from that thread was that Fowler's biggest fan no longer has a blue name.

He hasn't been a blue for a little while now. Then he was a sponsor.

Edit: Agreed, Flash. It's a statement you only make if you believe statistics overrule all else.

 

[The Midnight Burrito]

Maybe you were just going for the more literal interpretation of that premise. I also do get "why" they are mad, just like how I understand how people emotionally or ignorantly get all kinds of things wrong, I just don't think they have a claim to that emotion in that case. The practice in regards to NTCs makes it pretty evident that it's incorrect to view them as one-dimensional, so if people see it differently and get mad as a result of it, I understand how we reach that bottom line, but that doesn't validate it.

I can't agree. People have the right to be ass holes all day long...doesn't make them not ass holes.

 

[Vipers31]

I can't agree. People have the right to be ass holes all day long...doesn't make them not ass holes.

That's true, but I don't see how using a right that players "pay" hundred thousands or in that case even millions of dollars for makes them ethically questionable. I suppose that's fair agree to disagree territory.

 

[Lord Flashheart]

Overrated defensively Kesler has 1.83 GA/60 (ES). Elite Selke monsters like Bergeron, Pavelski and Kopitar have 2.20, 1.83 and 1.81 respectively.

 

[Opak]

Overrated defensively Kesler has 1.83 GA/60 (ES). Elite Selke monsters like Bergeron, Pavelski and Kopitar have 2.20, 1.83 and 1.81 respectively.

That doesn't matter, that's not a Corsi stat!

Sarcasm

 

[KelVarnsen]

Lolwut?

Edit: I've seen the thread. "Kesler is overrated defensively" is a line that no head coach, in the entire league, has ever said.

Which thread is it? I'd love to read some comedy.

 

[Lord Flashheart]

Which thread is it? I'd love to read some comedy.

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=2185287

 

[Exit Dose]

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=2185287

Machinehead really does operate in his own reality.

 

[KelVarnsen]

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=2185287

Wow. That guy is something special. He still managed to say he would prefer Mcilraith over an anchor playing top pairing mins. Ones been waived twice and one is an all star. He also pretty much said he is smarter than NHL coaches! And doesn't even see his responses as arrogant! Some spectacular posts in that thread!

 

[Bender66]

Overrated defensively Kesler has 1.83 GA/60 (ES). Elite Selke monsters like Bergeron, Pavelski and Kopitar have 2.20, 1.83 and 1.81 respectively.

 

[Sojourn]

Wow. That guy is something special. He still managed to say he would prefer Mcilraith over an anchor playing top pairing mins. Ones been waived twice and one is an all star. He also pretty much said he is smarter than NHL coaches! And doesn't even see his responses as arrogant! Some spectacular posts in that thread!

The bottom line is this: If you're using statistics that lead you to believe that Dylan freaking McIlrath is a better defenseman that Cam Fowler, the statistics are flawed, you're using them incorrectly, or more likely both.

Edit: and of course that doesn't matter, Flash. That statistic doesn't make enough assumptions. Things like QoC, QoT, all the shot differential numbers... they make a lot of assumptions. If you assume those assumptions are right, holy cow what an amazing stat. Best thing ever.

 

[Getzmonster]

The bottom line is this: If you're using statistics that lead you to believe that Dylan freaking McIlrath is a better defenseman that Cam Fowler, the statistics are flawed, you're using them incorrectly, or more likely both.

Edit: and of course that doesn't matter, Flash. That statistic doesn't make enough assumptions. Things like QoC, QoT, all the shot differential numbers... they make a lot of assumptions. If you assume those assumptions are right, holy cow what an amazing stat. Best thing ever.

What I found contradictory was the statement that all NHL coaches can be dismissed as idiots, yet shots for/against and similar stats need to be given weight because they were invented and implemented by coaches.

 

[Sojourn]

What I found contradictory was the statement that all NHL coaches can be dismissed as idiots, yet shots for/against and similar stats need to be given weight because they were invented and implemented by coaches.

That's just the tip of the iceberg. Half the **** is contradictory, it's all applied selectively to whatever they're tying to prove, and it relies heavily on the assumption that the statistics are highly meaningful. In truth, the difference between a good player and a bad player, according to these statistics, is very small. So small that you have to wonder if the significance of the statistics is being exaggerated.

The answer to that is yes, by the way.

Even when it is used properly, like with teams, do you know what some of the biggest supporting evidence is? That Cup winners fall into the top 10 of Corsi. The top 10, in a league of 30 team. So it encompasses an entire 1/3 of the league. And that doesn't even apply every time. Hell, there are playoffs where, if you bet on the higher Corsi team, you'd have lost more often than you won. And keep in mind, these are the team numbers, which balance out more. Individual Corsi use is much more unpredictable, and relies on far more variables that are unaccounted for accurately. I like statistics, because they can give you more information, but those are not the kind of numbers that lead me to believe shot differential is some fantastic statistic. All this shot suppression, and shot differential stuff is not nearly as significant as they are trying to lead people to believe.