Ryan Ellis or Morgan Rielly?

[zeke]

There's no way Ekholm is better then Ellis, this may be recency bias, because Ekholm has been a more recent standout as of late but when you factor in the hits, and just all the little things Ellis does in combination with everything else he clearly has more qualities and is the superior d-man.

Ekholm is #4, and is serviceable, and is good counterpart for Suuban, I think it goes:

Josi
PK
Ellis
Ekholm

in that order.

Josi
Ekholm
Ellis
Subban

 

[LeafingTheWay]

There's no way Ekholm is better then Ellis, this may be recency bias, because Ekholm has been a more recent standout as of late but when you factor in the hits, and just all the little things Ellis does in combination with everything else he clearly has more qualities and is the superior d-man.

Ekholm is #4, and is serviceable, and is good counterpart for Suuban, I think it goes:

Josi
PK
Ellis
Ekholm

in that order.

I've had Ekholm as the better D since the Ekholm-Ellis days. He's the best D on the team in terms of pure defense + he transitions the puck so well (carrying, passes, zone exits, etc) no matter which pair he goes to. Heck, even take a look at the stats with and without. Ekholm does extremely well defensively on any pairing, he's the perfect shut-down D. I love Ellis too, don't get me wrong but Ekholm's shutdown ability + transitioning is greater than the areas Ellis is better in.

FYI here's my preds rankings for the last 2 seasons:
Defensively: Ekholm > Subban > Ellis > Josi
Offensively: Josi > Subban > Ellis > Ekholm
Transitioning: Subban > Josi > Ekholm > Ellis

 

[TheBradyBunch]

Josi
Ekholm
Ellis
Subban

It's pretty strange to post a ranking that is ordered 2, 4, 3, 1, but good list beyond that.

 

[zeke]

It's pretty strange to post a ranking that is ordered 2, 4, 3, 1, but good list beyond that.

Oh right I forgot the numbers.

lemme fix it:

1.Josi
2.Ekholm
3a.Ellis
3b.Subban

 

[LeafingTheWay]

Oh right I forgot the numbers.

lemme fix it:

1.Josi
2.Ekholm
3a.Ellis
3b.Subban

Okay how on earth is Subban 4th on the list ...
His quality of teammates this year was absolutely garbage, only slightly behind the rest in QoC, and yet he posted great numbers.

 

[zeke]

Okay how on earth is Subban 4th on the list ...
His quality of teammates this year was absolutely garbage, only slightly behind the rest in QoC, and yet he posted great numbers.

the beauty of Nashville statistically is that all four dmen get such similar usage that it's easy for me to make a stats comparison between them:

Last 2yrs

Josi (27): ES 19:08 (A-), 1.23p/60, 0.90p1/60, 53.4cf% (+3.0), 54.1xgf% (+5.2) / PP 2:57, 4.98p/60, 3.55p1/60 / PK 2:41
Ek (27): ES 19:18 (B+), 0.74p/60, 0.43p1/60, 54.3cf% (+4.3), 53.4xgf% (+3.6) / PP 1:39, 3.37p/60, 2.70p1/60 / PK 2:34
Ellis (26): ES 18:53 (A-), 1.14p/60, 0.80p1/60, 52.1cf% (+1.2), 52.6xgf% (+0.6) / PP 2:12, 3.65p/60, 3.16p1/60 / PK 2:39
PK (28): ES 18:58 (B+), 1.03p/60, 0.72p1/60, 53.4cf% (+2.2), 51.7xgf% (+1.1) / PP 2:52, 5.63p/60, 3.46p160, / PK 2:24

Josi is the clear top dog. He's the one that should be in the Norris conversation.

Ekholm is also dominant, but doesn't have the offense of the others.

Ellis v Subban is a close comparison. Ellis faces slightly tougher competition and produces slightly more, while Subban has slightly better possession.

but you do make a good point about teammates - because of Ellis' injury, the others were forced to play with lesser dmen a bit more.

Teammates' CF%

Subban 50.5%
Ekholm 50.7%
Josi 51.6%
Ellis 53.1%

the first 3 are similar enough but Ellis clearly got more support than the rest thanks to never having to play without any of the other top 4.

so I change my mind:

1.Josi
2.Ekholm
3.Subban
4.Ellis

 

[Cotton]

Love me some Ryan Ellis, but i chose Mo Rielly.

 

[triggrman]

I've had Ekholm as the better D since the Ekholm-Ellis days. He's the best D on the team in terms of pure defense + he transitions the puck so well (carrying, passes, zone exits, etc) no matter which pair he goes to. Heck, even take a look at the stats with and without. Ekholm does extremely well defensively on any pairing, he's the perfect shut-down D. I love Ellis too, don't get me wrong but Ekholm's shutdown ability + transitioning is greater than the areas Ellis is better in.

FYI here's my preds rankings for the last 2 seasons:
Defensively: Ekholm > Subban > Ellis > Josi
Offensively: Josi > Subban > Ellis > Ekholm
Transitioning: Subban > Josi > Ekholm > Ellis

To me, no fancy stats to back it up.
Defensively Ekholm>Subban>Ellis>Josi
Offensively Josi>Subban>Ellis>Ekholm
Transition Josi>Subban>Ellis>Ekholm (Ekholm's weakest part of his game)
Overall hockey IQ Ellis>Josi>Subban>Ekholm

Of course this is simplified. I think Subban is a better passer than Josi but overall Josi is better in the transition because he skates with the puck better, Subban is good with the puck but has some brainfarts. Both are really good offensively but again, Josi is the better skater and that gives him the slight edge. Defensively, Josi probably breaks up more transitions than Subban but once in the zone, Ekholm and Subban are better. Ellis' IQ keeps in in front of the play most of the time, which is good because he's not as strong of a skater as Josi or Ekholm, Subban is the slowest overall skater of the group. Subban is physically stronger than Ellis and Josi but not as strong as Ekholm. Ekholm also has the most edge to his game, but Subban is close here as well. Subban more of the pest type, Ekholm has a small bit of Weber influence in him at times.

So just averaging it all out.

Josi and Subban are pretty equal
Ellis nudges out Ekholm but again, these 2 are very close.

 

[LeafingTheWay]

the beauty of Nashville statistically is that all four dmen get such similar usage that it's easy for me to make a stats comparison between them:

Last 2yrs

Josi (27): ES 19:08 (A-), 1.23p/60, 0.90p1/60, 53.4cf% (+3.0), 54.1xgf% (+5.2) / PP 2:57, 4.98p/60, 3.55p1/60 / PK 2:41
Ek (27): ES 19:18 (B+), 0.74p/60, 0.43p1/60, 54.3cf% (+4.3), 53.4xgf% (+3.6) / PP 1:39, 3.37p/60, 2.70p1/60 / PK 2:34
Ellis (26): ES 18:53 (A-), 1.14p/60, 0.80p1/60, 52.1cf% (+1.2), 52.6xgf% (+0.6) / PP 2:12, 3.65p/60, 3.16p1/60 / PK 2:39
PK (28): ES 18:58 (B+), 1.03p/60, 0.72p1/60, 53.4cf% (+2.2), 51.7xgf% (+1.1) / PP 2:52, 5.63p/60, 3.46p160, / PK 2:24

Josi is the clear top dog. He's the one that should be in the Norris conversation.

Ekholm is also dominant, but doesn't have the offense of the others.

Ellis v Subban is a close comparison. Ellis faces slightly tougher competition and produces slightly more, while Subban has slightly better possession.

but you do make a good point about teammates - because of Ellis' injury, the others were forced to play with lesser dmen a bit more.

Teammates' CF%

Subban 50.5%
Ekholm 50.7%
Josi 51.6%
Ellis 53.1%

the first 3 are similar enough but Ellis clearly got more support than the rest thanks to never having to play without any of the other top 4.

so I change my mind:

1.Josi
2.Ekholm
3.Subban
4.Ellis

Check out just last year instead of this past year if you're using stats. Subban blew out the others. This year is weird because Subban played with Emelin majority of the season. Just look at how ridiculous the difference is with and without:

View media item 2773
Also, I use TOI QoT and TOI QoC instead of CF% QoT etc. With that Subban gets a full 0.8 QoT less than Josi/Ellis does. That's massive (27.5 vs 28.3). His QoC was only 0.18 less than Josi/Ellis. So yeah, I'd say if we take that into account (or even just look at the years before), Subban is #1 IMO.

 

[zeke]

Check out just last year instead of this past year if you're using stats. Subban blew out the others. This year is weird because Subban played with Emelin majority of the season. Just look at how ridiculous the difference is with and without:

View media item 2773
Also, I use TOI QoT and TOI QoC instead of CF% QoT etc. With that Subban gets a full 0.8 QoT less than Josi/Ellis does. That's massive (27.5 vs 28.3). His QoC was only 0.18 less than Josi/Ellis. So yeah, I'd say if we take that into account (or even just look at the years before), Subban is #1 IMO.

can't see that screenshot.

and over that 2yr sample, there's not much difference between them in toiqot at even strength, either.

I never like looking at just one year's worth of stats, especially for players who are all in their prime year, but even just looking at 16-17:

Even Strength

Josi: 1.18p/60, .78p1/60, 53.2cf% (+2.7), 54.9xgf% (+5.5)
Subban: 1.00p/60, .57p1/60, 54.9cf% (+4.4), 54.2xgf% (+4.1)
Ekholm: .68p/60, .30p1/60, 53.3cf% (+3.1), 53.2xgf% (+2.5)
Ellis: .96p/60, 78p1/60, 50.2cf% (-0.6), 51.4xgf% (-0.0)

So better that year for PK, but I still take Josi for the offense, despite the similar possession. But Subban does flatly beat out Ekholm and Ellis that year. Over the bigger 2yr sample, though, Josi puts some distance between the two, and Ekholm and Ellis catch up, too.

that being said, looking at all these numbers does point that the one qoc/qot issue that sticks out in that nashville top-4 is that Ellis clearly gets the best qot, so given that his stats aren't as good as the rest anyways, my esteem for Ellis might be dropping a bit. he's starting to look less like a supposed top pair calibre guy that more I look into it.

 

[LeafingTheWay]

can't see that screenshot.

and over that 2yr sample, there's not much difference between them in toiqot at even strength, either.

I never like looking at just one year's worth of stats, especially for players who are all in their prime year, but even just looking at 16-17:

Even Strength

Josi: 1.18p/60, .78p1/60, 53.2cf% (+2.7), 54.9xgf% (+5.5)
Subban: 1.00p/60, .57p1/60, 54.9cf% (+4.4), 54.2xgf% (+4.1)
Ekholm: .68p/60, .30p1/60, 53.3cf% (+3.1), 53.2xgf% (+2.5)
Ellis: .96p/60, 78p1/60, 50.2cf% (-0.6), 51.4xgf% (-0.0)

So better that year for PK, but I still take Josi for the offense, despite the similar possession. But Subban does flatly beat out Ekholm and Ellis that year. Over the bigger 2yr sample, though, Josi puts some distance between the two, and Ekholm and Ellis catch up, too.

that being said, looking at all these numbers does point that the one qoc/qot issue that sticks out in that nashville top-4 is that Ellis clearly gets the best qot, so given that his stats aren't as good as the rest anyways, my esteem for Ellis might be dropping a bit. he's starting to look less like a supposed top pair calibre guy that more I look into it.

View media item 2777
The difference for the WOWYS for Subban/Emelin is huge.

IMO the reason why that 2 season sample is flawed is because: Subban's QoT was really high 1st year and then really, really low the next year (like QoT a bottom-pairing D would get). Josi's QoT has stayed the same for the past 2 seasons. In the 16/17 season, Subban and Josi both had high Qot but Subban's QoT was a lot higher (29.11 vs 28.5). In the 17/18 season, Subban had bottom-pairing level QoT which is just completely weird (27.5 vs Josi's 28.3). Just take a look at that chart to see how bad the 27.5 TOI QoT is (Emelin effect).


That's fair though, Josi is amazing too. To me, Josi is a god offensively but average defensively. Subban is elite in both categories and I take the D who's amazing defensively (underrated for that) while being above-average offensively. Also glad to see Ekholm get the recognition he deserves.

Tableau Public
P.S (I came across the All-3-zone player comparison tool and I really like it, it's much more accurate than any other visual tool I've seen).

 

[Castle8130]

Both seem like number 2 dmen and this is a very good poll. I had a lot of trouble picking one or the other and ended up with Ellis. Not surprised at the result at all, could go either way.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

Subban
Josi
Ekholm
Ellis

 

[The Moose is Loose]

Today I'll go with Ellis.

Coming years, Rielly.

 

[780il]

I went Rielly. Really like his game.