Ryan Ellis or Morgan Rielly?

[Icebreakers]

Put Rielly on that Nashville D-core and this wouldn't even be close lol

Put Reilly on the predators and he would get no powerplay time and be 4th in even strength time. LOL .

 

[major major]

I think you are getting a bit carried away with QoC, and definitely with possession stats here. When we're dealing with several years of data, the sample size is big enough, you should just use goals for /60 and goals against / 60. Some players have tendencies to outperform or underperform their possession stats so they should be shelved once the sample size is big enough.

Just a disaster. This is a great example of a guy getting buried against too-tough competition - though, that being said, his competition is nowhere near what Rielly is getting. (And Rielly is actually doing well in those minutes.)

Rielly is doing well in shutdown minutes if you don't take into account his ability to shutdown the opposition. His GA/60 is the most relevant stat here. He's gone from getting buried to just solidly below average in that respect.

He was actually decent once they put him down into softer usage....well, he was until last year at least, when he completely fell off a cliff even against the easiest competition of his career.

Yes, last year was a steep fall off for JJ. But even in his "good year" the year prior, if you look at his performance w/ and w/o David Savard, he was the same bad player without Savard. Savard just had a monster performance and carried everyone, ended up +33.

 

[6 Karlsson 5]

I think Ellis is the better player, so I would probably take him

 

[Garthinater]

Ryan Ellis and it's not even close

lol keep up the salt Rhaegar!

 

[wintersej]

I think you are getting a bit carried away with QoC, and definitely with possession stats here. When we're dealing with several years of data, the sample size is big enough, you should just use goals for /60 and goals against / 60. Some players have tendencies to outperform or underperform their possession stats so they should be shelved once the sample size is big enough.



Rielly is doing well in shutdown minutes if you don't take into account his ability to shutdown the opposition. His GA/60 is the most relevant stat here. He's gone from getting buried to just solidly below average in that respect.



Yes, last year was a steep fall off for JJ. But even in his "good year" the year prior, if you look at his performance w/ and w/o David Savard, he was the same bad player without Savard. Savard just had a monster performance and carried everyone, ended up +33.

Lots here, but I do think that getting away from xGF% and what not at a larger sample is a reasonable thing. Rielly does not have great GA or xGA numbers, but the Leafs score. How much is Rielly's fault or not? How much of the goals allowed is Kadri or Bozak or Matthews? Is there something wrong with trading chances against top competition? Is there something wrong with it in the playoffs against even better competition?

Also... how do minutes played come into play here? I use a Boston guy because I am familiar with factors that are hard to find looking at stats...

A guy like McAvoy plays an extra 90 seconds a game vs Reilly at even strength. Chara/McAvoy and Rielly/Hainsey play about the same QoC as pairings... but then McAvoy goes out and plays some extra shifts against weaker competition...does McAvoy get punished in relation to Rielly because he isn't resting on the bench?

 

[Sundinisagod]

lol keep up the salt Rhaegar!

Hey now, if you were an Ottawa fan, you'd be bitter and jealous as well.

 

[Coaches Coroner]

If you're saying "AINEC", regardless of who you're picking, it's hard to take your hockey opinions seriously.

 

[Leafs at Knight]

Hey now, if you were an Ottawa fan, you'd be bitter and jealous as well.

I would've picked a new team by now.

 

[Michoulicious]

The poll is surprisingly close! Interesting.

I would have thought people would have massively chosen the #1D who is 24y old and just had 52 points on a top team.

Ellis is good, but the upside of Reilly is massive. For me, Morgan Rielly it is.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

Lots here, but I do think that getting away from xGF% and what not at a larger sample is a reasonable thing. Rielly does not have great GA or xGA numbers, but the Leafs score. How much is Rielly's fault or not? How much of the goals allowed is Kadri or Bozak or Matthews? Is there something wrong with trading chances against top competition? Is there something wrong with it in the playoffs against even better competition?

Also... how do minutes played come into play here? I use a Boston guy because I am familiar with factors that are hard to find looking at stats...

A guy like McAvoy plays an extra 90 seconds a game vs Reilly at even strength. Chara/McAvoy and Rielly/Hainsey play about the same QoC as pairings... but then McAvoy goes out and plays some extra shifts against weaker competition...does McAvoy get punished in relation to Rielly because he isn't resting on the bench?

Well no but his possession stats look better than they realistically are since he pads them a bit against easy comp.

 

[34]

Rielly should be winning this

Rielly is better than Ellis.

 

[tony d]

Ellis for me. Surprised Rielly is leading.

 

[Holymakinaw]

2yrs

Ellis (26): 115gms, ES 18:53 (A- qoc), 1.14p/60, 0.80p1/60, 52.1cf% (+1.2), 52.6xgf% (+0.6) / PP 2:12, 3.65p/60, 3.16p1/60 / PK 2:39
Rielly (23): 152gms, ES 18:33 (A qoc), 0.97p/60, 0.75p1/60, 51.3cf% (+1.0), 50.3xgf% (-0.9) / PP 1:35, 7.39p/60, 3.06p1/60 / PK 1:45

Man, I can appreciate the work that goes into distilling these kinds of advanced stats and all that, but........this really sucks all the fun out of the game of hockey.

 

[LeafingTheWay]

I think a better poll would have been Ekholm vs Rielly.

I like Ellis but I think Ekholm/Rielly are a slight clear cut above him.

 

[zeke]

Man, I can appreciate the work that goes into distilling these kinds of advanced stats and all that, but........this really sucks all the fun out of the game of hockey.

Not for me!

 

[Filatov2Kovalev2Bonk]

There's really no wrong answer here, but I picked Rielly because of age and Toronto's rise at the moment. Nashville has few more years of window though. If TO ends up picking up Subban down the road before his decline really plummets, they could get scary.

 

[major major]

Lots here, but I do think that getting away from xGF% and what not at a larger sample is a reasonable thing. Rielly does not have great GA or xGA numbers, but the Leafs score. How much is Rielly's fault or not? How much of the goals allowed is Kadri or Bozak or Matthews? Is there something wrong with trading chances against top competition? Is there something wrong with it in the playoffs against even better competition?

Also... how do minutes played come into play here? I use a Boston guy because I am familiar with factors that are hard to find looking at stats...

A guy like McAvoy plays an extra 90 seconds a game vs Reilly at even strength. Chara/McAvoy and Rielly/Hainsey play about the same QoC as pairings... but then McAvoy goes out and plays some extra shifts against weaker competition...does McAvoy get punished in relation to Rielly because he isn't resting on the bench?

If you're up by a goal, it's obviously bad to be trading chances. That's the big problem with Rielly as a shutdown D. More goals go in the net when he is on the ice. Is it any wonder that the Leafs have problems with protecting leads?

Up a goal, Rielly allows 3.65 goals against per 60 minutes. The year prior his number up a goal was 3.79 GA/60, and the year prior to that it was 3.67 GA/60. Consistently awful. He's the exact opposite kind of player that you'd want on the ice in that situation. Keep in mind that none of this is to say that Rielly is a bad player, but he is without a doubt a bad shutdown player, and that's why this whole pro-Rielly line of argument about his difficult minutes is off track - it leads you away from what he is good at and towards what he is bad at.

By comparison, McAvoy had ridiculous numbers in the same situation. .89 GA/60. If you expand to all leading situations, to get a better sample size, he was still near the best in the league.

 

[Atomos2]

Rielly is so underrated it's embarrassing

 

[zeke]

If you're up by a goal, it's obviously bad to be trading chances. That's the big problem with Rielly as a shutdown D. More goals go in the net when he is on the ice. Is it any wonder that the Leafs have problems with protecting leads?

Up a goal, Rielly allows 3.65 goals against per 60 minutes. The year prior his number up a goal was 3.79 GA/60, and the year prior to that it was 3.67 GA/60. Consistently awful. He's the exact opposite kind of player that you'd want on the ice in that situation. Keep in mind that none of this is to say that Rielly is a bad player, but he is without a doubt a bad shutdown player, and that's why this whole pro-Rielly line of argument about his difficult minutes is off track - it leads you away from what he is good at and towards what he is bad at.

By comparison, McAvoy had ridiculous numbers in the same situation. .89 GA/60. If you expand to all leading situations, to get a better sample size, he was still near the best in the league.

I don't think you understand sample size, if you think the goals samples are remotely comparable to the shot attempt samples, or that goals become a useful sample size after a year or two.

but McAvoy is excellent, anyways.

 

[wintersej]

If you're up by a goal, it's obviously bad to be trading chances. That's the big problem with Rielly as a shutdown D. More goals go in the net when he is on the ice. Is it any wonder that the Leafs have problems with protecting leads?

Up a goal, Rielly allows 3.65 goals against per 60 minutes. The year prior his number up a goal was 3.79 GA/60, and the year prior to that it was 3.67 GA/60. Consistently awful. He's the exact opposite kind of player that you'd want on the ice in that situation. Keep in mind that none of this is to say that Rielly is a bad player, but he is without a doubt a bad shutdown player, and that's why this whole pro-Rielly line of argument about his difficult minutes is off track - it leads you away from what he is good at and towards what he is bad at.

By comparison, McAvoy had ridiculous numbers in the same situation. .89 GA/60. If you expand to all leading situations, to get a better sample size, he was still near the best in the league.

Couldn't have said it better myself. That being said... he does get very little defensive help. The whole team bleeds chances. So there is some projecting here of "how good we think he would look if he had a top notch defensively minded partner". But then if you need someone like that as your partner...what does that make you? Does it make you a top 20D? I voted Reilly because I think that, like Ellis, he is someone that is going to need a top notch partner to be successful, but Rielly still has upside for something more.

 

[DoobieDubas]

Maybe I'm biased but reilly any day

 

[Rhaegar Targaryen]

There's really no wrong answer here, but I picked Rielly because of age and Toronto's rise at the moment. Nashville has few more years of window though. If TO ends up picking up Subban down the road before his decline really plummets, they could get scary.

I think Toronto’s management is oblivious to the defensive portion of the game

 

[Tage2Tuch]

Really?

I think Morgan Reilly is pretty damn good but RYan Ellis is a top pairing quality d-man, capable of being a #1 or #2 on around 20-25 teams. He does everything and is so solid back there,

I think he'd be the #1 d-man on the Leafs.

Which should answer the question.

Poor guy has lived in the shadow of Rinne, Suter, Weber, Josi and Suuban.

 

[82Ninety42011]

They are both very good but I go Ellis as though he plays with much better Dman he also gets less opportunities because of that. Ellis being a RHD doesn't hurt either. Both are very good but if had to choose 1 to start a team have to be Ellis.

 

[Tage2Tuch]

I think a better poll would have been Ekholm vs Rielly.

I like Ellis but I think Ekholm/Rielly are a slight clear cut above him.

There's no way Ekholm is better then Ellis, this may be recency bias, because Ekholm has been a more recent standout as of late but when you factor in the hits, and just all the little things Ellis does in combination with everything else he clearly has more qualities and is the superior d-man.

Ekholm is #4, and is serviceable, and is good counterpart for Suuban, I think it goes:

Josi
PK
Ellis
Ekholm

in that order.